Trends and prediction in daily incidence and deaths of COVID-19 in the United States: a search-interest based model

AbstractBackground and ObjectivesThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infected more than 586,000 patients in the U.S. However, its daily incidence and deaths in the U.S. are poorly understood. Internet search interest was found correlated with COVID-19 daily incidence in China, but not yet applied to the U.S. Therefore, we examined the association of internet search-interest with COVID-19 daily incidence and deaths in the U.S.MethodsWe extracted the COVDI-19 daily incidence and death data in the U.S. from two population-based datasets. The search interest of COVID-19 related terms was obtained using Google Trends. Pearson correlation test and general linear model were used to examine correlations and predict future trends, respectively.ResultsThere were 555,245 new cases and 22,019 deaths of COVID-19 reported in the U.S. from March 1 to April 12, 2020. The search interest of COVID, “COVID pneumonia,” and “COVID heart” were correlated with COVDI-19 daily incidence with ∼12-day of delay (Pearson’s r=0.978, 0.978 and 0.979, respectively) and deaths with 19-day of delay (Pearson’s r=0.963, 0.958 and 0.970, respectively). The COVID-19 daily incidence and deaths appeared to both peak on April 10. The 4-day follow-up with prospectively collected data showed moderate to good accuracies for predicting new cases (Pearson’s r=-0.641 to −0.833) and poor to good accuracies for daily new deaths (Pearson’s r=0.365 to 0.935).ConclusionsSearch terms related to COVID-19 are highly correlated with the trends in COVID-19 daily incidence and deaths in the U.S. The prediction-models based on the search interest trend reached moderate to good accuracies.

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Sojourner Culture Shock: Assessing the Role of Exposure in Intrapersonal Identity Conflict

International Journal of Psychological Studies ◽

10.5539/ijps.v9n3p12 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 9 (3) ◽

pp. 12

Author(s):

Ahmed M. Asfahani

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Cultural Identity ◽

Pearson Correlation ◽

Culture Shock ◽

The United States ◽

Identity Conflict ◽

Saudi Arabian Students ◽

Pearson Correlation Test ◽

The Relationship

This research assesses the relationship between intercultural exposure variables—the length of time spent in the United States, the length of previous experience outside Saudi Arabia, the length of time studying English as a second language, and the frequency and nature of interactions with Americans—and intrapersonal identity conflict. To assess this relationship, the researcher conducted a survey of Saudi Arabian students studying in the United States, which collected information on exposure variables, as well as employing Leong and Ward’s (2000) Ethno-Cultural Identity Conflict Scale (EICS). A Pearson correlation test was conducted to examine the relationship between the Saudi sojourners’ intercultural exposure and their identity conflict scores to conclude that there is not a relationship between exposure and identity conflict.

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Forecasting type-specific seasonal influenza after 26 weeks in the United States using influenza activities in other countries

10.1101/705855 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

S. B. Choi ◽

J. Kim ◽

I. Ahn

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Time Series ◽

Deep Learning ◽

Seasonal Influenza ◽

Prediction Models ◽

Time Lag ◽

The United States ◽

Surveillance Data ◽

Influenza Surveillance ◽

The U.S

AbstractTo identify countries that have seasonal patterns similar to the time series of influenza surveillance data in the United States and other countries, and to forecast the 2018–2019 seasonal influenza outbreak in the U.S. using linear regression, auto regressive integrated moving average, and deep learning. We collected the surveillance data of 164 countries from 2010 to 2018 using the FluNet database. Data for influenza-like illness (ILI) in the U.S. were collected from the Fluview database. This cross-correlation study identified the time lag between the two time-series. Deep learning was performed to forecast ILI, total influenza, A, and B viruses after 26 weeks in the U.S. The seasonal influenza patterns in Australia and Chile showed a high correlation with those of the U.S. 22 weeks and 28 weeks earlier, respectively. The R2 score of DNN models for ILI for validation set in 2015–2019 was 0.722 despite how hard it is to forecast 26 weeks ahead. Our prediction models forecast that the ILI for the U.S. in 2018–2019 may be later and less severe than those in 2017–2018, judging from the influenza activity for Australia and Chile in 2018. It allows to estimate peak timing, peak intensity, and type-specific influenza activities for next season at 40th week. The correlation for seasonal influenza among Australia, Chile, and the U.S. could be used to decide on influenza vaccine strategy six months ahead in the U.S.

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Internet-Based Neighborhood Information Systems

Community Informatics ◽

10.4018/978-1-878289-69-8.ch013 ◽

2011 ◽

pp. 275-297 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Danny Krouk ◽

Bill Pitkin ◽

Neil Richman

Keyword(s):

Rapid Development ◽

Internet Access ◽

The United States ◽

Education Level ◽

The Internet ◽

Successful Transmission ◽

Computer Ownership ◽

Highly Correlated ◽

The U.S ◽

Over Time

This verse comes from a poem read by one of the key figures in the development of the Internet at a recent symposium held to celebrate the 30th anniversary of the first successful transmission of digital bits from one computer to another, which ushered in the era of computer networks (Kaplan, September 6, 1999). Perhaps not unexpectedly, participants in this commemorative event reflected on the rapid development of networking and what we today call the Internet and predicted its ubiquity in everyday life, likening it to electricity. Obviously, however, we are not quite there yet. Recent data from the U.S. Department of Commerce suggest that, despite rapidly increasing rates of computer ownership and Internet access in the United States, there are still many people who have been left out of the information revolution. Researchers found that Internet access is highly correlated with income, education level and race, leading them to conclude: The information ‘haves’ have dramatically outpaced the information ‘have nots’ in their access to electronic services. As a result, the gap between these groups — the digital divide — has grown over time. (McConnaughey et al., 1999, p. 88)

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Prevalence of Disability Associated With Head Injury With Loss of Consciousness in Adults in the United States: A Population-Based Study

Neurology ◽

10.1212/wnl.0000000000012148 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 10.1212/WNL.0000000000012148

Author(s):

Andrea L.C. Schneider ◽

Dan Wang ◽

Rebecca F. Gottesman ◽

Elizabeth Selvin

Keyword(s):

Head Injury ◽

Grip Strength ◽

Work Productivity ◽

The United States ◽

Population Based ◽

Self Report ◽

Loss Of Consciousness ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

History Of ◽

The U.S

Objective:To provide nationally representative prevalence estimates of disability associated with prior head injury with loss of consciousness in the U.S. and to examine associations between prior head injury and disability.Methods:Cross-sectional analysis of 7,390 participants aged ≥40 years in the 2011-2014 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES). Head injury with loss of consciousness was assessed by self-report. Domains of disability were assessed using a standardized structured questionnaire and measured grip strength. Logistic regression models adjusted for demographic, socioeconomic/behavioral, and medical comorbidity variables were used. Multiple imputation was used to account for missing covariate data.Results:Mean age of participants was 58 years, 53% were female, 71% were non-Hispanic white, and 16% had a history of head injury with loss of consciousness. Overall, participants with a history of head injury had higher prevalence of disability in at least one domain of functioning compared to individuals without head injury (47.4% versus 38.6%, p<0.001), with the highest prevalence of disability in the domains of mobility and work productivity. In fully adjusted models, head injury was significantly positively associated with disability in all domains assessed on the standardized questionnaire (all p<0.05), but not with upper extremity grip strength (all p>0.05).Conclusions:47.4% of individuals aged ≥40 years in the U.S with a history of head injury are living with disability in at least one domain of functioning, corresponding to 11.4 million affected individuals. This significant burden of disability suggests that efforts are needed to improve functioning among individuals with head injury.

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Racial and ethnic differences in COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and uptake

10.1101/2021.02.25.21252402 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Long H. Nguyen ◽

Amit D. Joshi ◽

David A. Drew ◽

Jordi Merino ◽

Wenjie Ma ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Ethnic Minorities ◽

South Asian ◽

Ethnic Differences ◽

The United States ◽

Population Based ◽

Vaccine Hesitancy ◽

Racial And Ethnic Differences ◽

Racial And Ethnic Minorities ◽

To Receive ◽

The U.S

BackgroundRacial and ethnic minorities have been disproportionately impacted by COVID-19. In the initial phase of population-based vaccination in the United States (U.S.) and United Kingdom (U.K.), vaccine hesitancy and limited access may result in disparities in uptake.MethodsWe performed a cohort study among U.S. and U.K. participants in the smartphone-based COVID Symptom Study (March 24, 2020-February 16, 2021). We used logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy (unsure/not willing) and receipt.ResultsIn the U.S. (n=87,388), compared to White non-Hispanic participants, the multivariable ORs of vaccine hesitancy were 3.15 (95% CI: 2.86 to 3.47) for Black participants, 1.42 (1.28 to 1.58) for Hispanic participants, 1.34 (1.18 to 1.52) for Asian participants, and 2.02 (1.70 to 2.39) for participants reporting more than one race/other. In the U.K. (n=1,254,294), racial and ethnic minorities had similarly elevated hesitancy: compared to White participants, their corresponding ORs were 2.84 (95% CI: 2.69 to 2.99) for Black participants, 1.66 (1.57 to 1.76) for South Asian participants, 1.84 (1.70 to 1.98) for Middle East/East Asian participants, and 1.48 (1.39 to 1.57) for participants reporting more than one race/other. Among U.S. participants, the OR of vaccine receipt was 0.71 (0.64 to 0.79) for Black participants, a disparity that persisted among individuals who specifically endorsed a willingness to obtain a vaccine. In contrast, disparities in uptake were not observed in the U.K.ConclusionsCOVID-19 vaccine hesitancy was greater among racial and ethnic minorities, and Black participants living in the U.S. were less likely to receive a vaccine than White participants. Lower uptake among Black participants in the U.S. during the initial vaccine rollout is attributable to both hesitancy and disparities in access.

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Misuse of Tramadol in the United States: An Analysis of the National Survey of Drug Use and Health 2002-2017

Substance Abuse Research and Treatment ◽

10.1177/1178221820930006 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 14 ◽

pp. 117822182093000

Author(s):

Scott A Reines ◽

Bonnie Goldmann ◽

Mark Harnett ◽

Lucy Lu

Keyword(s):

Drug Use ◽

National Survey ◽

Household Survey ◽

The United States ◽

Population Based ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Health Related ◽

Nationally Representative ◽

The U.S ◽

Intravenous Formulation

Objective: To analyze the rates of misuse - that is, use in any way not directed by a doctor - of products containing oral tramadol, a Schedule IV opioid, from the National Survey of Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), as compared to comparator Schedule II opioids (morphine, oxycodone, and hydrocodone) and alprazolam, a commonly prescribed Schedule IV controlled substance in the U.S. Methods: The NSDUH is a congressionally mandated household survey that collects information on tobacco, alcohol, and drug use, mental health and other health-related issues in the US. A cross-sectional surveillance study design was used to examine lifetime and past year misuse of oral tramadol and comparators of interest among NSHUH respondents aged 12 years or older. Based on when particular data were available, the past-year misuse analysis includes NSDUH data from 2015 to 2017, and the lifetime misuse analysis includes NSDUH data from 2002 to 2014. Results: In 2015 to 2017, past-year misuse of oral tramadol was approximately 4% of the total number of prescriptions, versus 7% to 8% for all of the comparators when adjusted for drug availability. In 2002 to 2014, lifetime misuse of oral tramadol remained at 1.5% or less over the 13-year period, and was lower than reported for hydrocodone (6%) and oxycodone (4%), respectively. Comparison of oral tramadol and alprazolam showed misuse of tramadol was also much lower than alprazolam. Too few reports of tramadol misuse by injection (n = 7) were reported, versus 570, 1096, and 32 reports of injection of morphine, oxycodone, and hydrocodone, respectively, during the 16-year analysis period to allow for any population-based estimation. Only morphine has an intravenous formulation available and tramadol was not available as an intravenous formulation in the U.S. during that time period. Conclusions: This analysis shows a low prevalence of oral tramadol misuse, relative to other commonly prescribed opioids, in a nationally representative sample of noninstitutionalized US residents. Estimates of reported oral tramadol misuse have remained relatively stable over time and are substantially lower than those reported for comparators when adjusted for prescription volume. Reports of oral tramadol misuse are also much less than alprazolam, another Schedule IV drug.

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Correlation Between β2-Microglobulin, Grobulin Levels & The Number of Plasmatic Cells in Patients with Multiple Myeloma

International Journal of Biomedical Research & Practice ◽

10.33425/2769-6294.1006 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 1 (2) ◽

Author(s):

Rosa María Torres Hernández ◽

Mario Alberto Martínez Ramírez ◽

Beatriz González Jiménez ◽

Humberto Hernández Ojeda ◽

Fátima Izamar Medel Cabada

Keyword(s):

Multiple Myeloma ◽

Pearson Correlation ◽

High Serum ◽

Β2 Microglobulin ◽

Predominant Type ◽

Margin Of Error ◽

Pearson's R ◽

Multiple Myelomas ◽

The One ◽

Pearson’S R

Introduction: Multiple myeloma is multifocal neoplasia of plasmatic cells that affects the bone marrow. It is associated with the production of a urinary or serum protein. It represents approximately 1 percent of cancer cases worldwide and between 10 to 15 percent of all cases of hematological malignancy. Furthermore, it has been proposed that the β2-microglobulin levels are correlated with other factors that can predict multiple myelomas such as the number of plasmatic cells and the creatine levels. Goals: To determine the correlation between β2-microglobulin, globulin levels, and the number of plasmatic cells in patients with multiple myeloma. Methods and techniques: We conducted an observational, retrospective, transversal, and analytical study in the Hospital of the Mexican Institute of Social Security at the Veracruz port. Our population analyzed comprehended 45 patients between the ages 30 and 80 with a confirmed diagnosis of multiple myeloma. We measured the β2-microglobulin levels and globulin levels, and the number of plasmatic cells during the diagnosis of patients. Furthermore, we conducted a statistical analysis using a Pearson correlation. Results: The average age was 61 years with a margin of error of 11.48 years. The myeloma of IgG type was the one of major prevalence and represent 82.2 percent. It was followed by the IgA type and the IgM type, which represented 15.5 and 2.2 percent respectively. The Pearson correlation coefficient (Pearson's r) between the β2-microglobulin levels and globulin levels was 0.92. The Pearson's r between the number of plasmatic cells and β2-microglobulin, excluding patients with high serum creatine levels (i.e. larger than 1.2 mg/dl), was 0.371. Conclusions: The predominant type of myeloma in the analyzed population was the IgG type. Furthermore, this myeloma affected mainly men in our study. The average age was 61 years with a margin of error of 11.48 years when compared to other populations in our study.

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Sacral Anatomical Orientation in the Lebanese Population

Advances in Orthopedics ◽

10.1155/2020/4292384 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2020 ◽

pp. 1-5

Author(s):

Joseph Maalouly ◽

Fouad Jabbour ◽

Elias Saidy ◽

Georgio Lati ◽

Gerard El-Hajj ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Volume Rendering ◽

Pearson Correlation ◽

Intraclass Correlation ◽

Spinal Diseases ◽

3D Images ◽

Correlation Test ◽

Postural Changes ◽

Pearson Correlation Test ◽

The Mean ◽

Highly Correlated

Introduction. PI is currently used as the gold standard measurement in spinopelvic anatomy. There is a need for a reliable method to calculate sacral anatomic orientation (SAO) independent of posture and to establish its association with PI, which was previously established in a single study (Peleg et al., 2007). Therefore, the aim of our study is the application and verification of this association on a Lebanese sample. Methods. Methods for measuring SAO and PI on living individuals are described. The study was carried out on 200 adult individuals using CT 3D images (volume-rendering method). Reliability (intratester and intertester) was evaluated using the intraclass correlation test. A regression analysis was carried out to evaluate the association between the two measurements. Results. There were 103 females (51%) and 97 males (49%) with a mean age of 58.68 ± 19.6 years (min = 20; max = 93). The mean SAO and PI in our population were found to be 52.65° (SD = 8.16°) and 59.08° (SD = 12.53°), respectively. SAO and PI measurements were highly correlated (Pearson correlation test; r = −0.296, P<0.0001 for our general population). PI can be predicted via SAO, i.e., SAO = (−0.193 × PI) + 64.057. Conclusions. SAO may be an important tool, alongside PI, in defining the sagittal shape of the spine and useful for understanding its association with spinal diseases as they are not affected by postural changes.

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Measuring the Size of the U.S. Jewish Population: New Estimates from a Pew Research Center Survey of Jewish Americans

Journal of Religion and Demography ◽

10.1163/2589742x-12347112 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 8 (1-2) ◽

pp. 89-100

Author(s):

Conrad Hackett ◽

Jacob Ausubel

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Jewish Population ◽

The United States ◽

Population Based ◽

Research Center ◽

Population Estimates ◽

Adults And Children ◽

Jewish Americans ◽

The U.S

Abstract This paper presents new estimates of the U.S. Jewish population based on a 2019–2020 Pew Research Center survey, which used a stratified address-based sample of all Americans to screen more than 68,000 respondents and complete full interviews with more than 5,800 adults who are Jewish or have some kind of connection to Judaism. We estimate there are about 5.8 million adult Jews living in the United States, including 4.2 million who identify as Jewish by religion and 1.5 million who are Jews of no religion. In addition, 1.8 million children live with at least one adult Jew and are being raised Jewish in some way. Altogether, about 7.5 million people, or 2.4% of the total U.S. population, are Jewish. We present population estimates for additional detailed categories of Jewish adults and children in Jewish households that not available in any other recent source.

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Estimating area-level variation in SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality ratios

10.1101/2021.12.04.21267288 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Joshua Ladau ◽

Chaincy Kuo ◽

Eoin L. Brodie ◽

Nicola Falco ◽

Ishan Bansal ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Pearson Correlation ◽

Correlation Coefficients ◽

The United States ◽

County Level ◽

Geographic Variability ◽

Level Variation ◽

Quality Of Data ◽

Validation Data ◽

Differential Probability ◽

The U.S

AbstractBackgroundDuring a pandemic, estimates of geographic variability in disease burden are important but limited by the availability and quality of data.MethodsWe propose a framework for estimating geographic variability in testing effort, total number of infections, and infection fatality ratio (IFR). Because symptomatic people are more likely to seek testing, we use a noncentral hypergeometric model that accounts for differential probability of positive tests. We apply this framework to the United States (U.S.) COVID-19 pandemic to estimate county-level SARS-CoV-2 IFRs from March 1, 2020 to October 31, 2020. Using data on population size, number of observed cases, number of reported deaths in each U.S. county and state, and number of tests in each U.S. state, we develop a series of estimators to identify the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections and IFRs at the county level. We then perform a simulation and compare the estimated values to simulated values to demonstrate the validity of our approach.FindingsApplying the county-level estimators to the real, unsimulated COVID-19 data spanning March 1, 2020 to October 31, 2020 from across the U.S., we found that IFRs varied from 0 to 0.0273, with an interquartile range of 0.0022 and a median of 0.0018. The estimators for IFRs, number of infections, and number of tests showed high accuracy and precision; for instance, when applied to simulated validation data sets, across counties, Pearson correlation coefficients between estimator means and true values were 0.88, 0.95, and 0.74, respectively.InterpretationWe propose an estimation framework that can be used to identify area-level variation in IFRs and performs well to estimate county-level IFRs in the U.S. COVID-19 pandemic.

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