scholarly journals COVID-19 serial interval estimates based on confirmed cases in public reports from 86 Chinese cities

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhanwei Du ◽  
Xiaoke Xu ◽  
Ye Wu ◽  
Lin Wang ◽  
Benjamin J. Cowling ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mainland China ◽  
Transmission Characteristics ◽  
Interval Estimates ◽  
Chinese Cities ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Complete Dataset ◽  
Serial Interval ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

AbstractAs a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) continues to spread widely and claim lives worldwide, its transmission characteristics remain uncertain. Here, we present and analyze the serial intervals–the time period between the onset of symptoms in an index (infector) case and the onset of symptoms in a secondary (infectee) case–of 339 confirmed cases of COVID-19 identified from 264 cities in mainland China prior to February 19, 2020. Here, we provide the complete dataset in both English and Chinese to support further COVID-19 research and modeling efforts.

scholarly journals Evolving epidemiology of novel coronavirus diseases 2019 and possible interruption of local transmission outside Hubei Province in China: a descriptive and modeling study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juanjuan Zhang ◽  
Maria Litvinova ◽  
Wei Wang ◽  
Yan Wang ◽  
Xiaowei Deng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Hubei Province ◽  
Epidemic Threshold ◽  
Epidemic Dynamics ◽  
Serial Interval ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Local Transmission

AbstractBackgroundThe COVID-19 epidemic originated in Wuhan City of Hubei Province in December 2019 and has spread throughout China. Understanding the fast evolving epidemiology and transmission dynamics of the outbreak beyond Hubei would provide timely information to guide intervention policy.MethodsWe collected individual information on 8,579 laboratory-confirmed cases from official publically sources reported outside Hubei in mainland China, as of February 17, 2020. We estimated the temporal variation of the demographic characteristics of cases and key time-to-event intervals. We used a Bayesian approach to estimate the dynamics of the net reproduction number (Rt) at the provincial level.ResultsThe median age of the cases was 44 years, with an increasing of cases in younger age groups and the elderly as the epidemic progressed. The delay from symptom onset to hospital admission decreased from 4.4 days (95%CI: 0.0-14.0) until January 27 to 2.6 days (0.0-9.0) from January 28 to February 17. The mean incubation period was estimated at 5.2 days (1.8-12.4) and the mean serial interval at 5.1 days (1.3-11.6). The epidemic dynamics in provinces outside Hubei was highly variable, but consistently included a mix of case importations and local transmission. We estimate that the epidemic was self-sustained for less than three weeks with Rt reaching peaks between 1.40 (1.04-1.85) in Shenzhen City of Guangdong Province and 2.17 (1.69-2.76) in Shandong Province. In all the analyzed locations (n=10) Rt was estimated to be below the epidemic threshold since the end of January.ConclusionOur findings suggest that the strict containment measures and movement restrictions in place may contribute to the interruption of local COVID-19 transmission outside Hubei Province. The shorter serial interval estimated here implies that transmissibility is not as high as initial estimates suggested.

scholarly journals Evolution of effective serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 by non-pharmaceutical interventions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheikh Taslim Ali ◽  
Lin Wang ◽  
Eric H. Y. Lau ◽  
Xiao-Ke Xu ◽  
Zhanwei Du ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mainland China ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Serial Interval ◽  
Real Time Estimation ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract Studies of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have reported varying estimates of epidemiological parameters such as serial intervals and reproduction numbers. By compiling a unique line-list database of transmission pairs in mainland China, we demonstrated that serial intervals of COVID-19 have shortened substantially from a mean of 7.8 days to 2.6 days within a month. This change is driven by enhanced non-pharmaceutical interventions, in particular case isolation. We also demonstrated that using real-time estimation of serial intervals allowing for variation over time would provide more accurate estimates of reproduction numbers, than by using conventional definition of fixed serial interval distributions. These findings are essential to improve the assessment of transmission dynamics, forecasting future incidence, and estimating the impact of control measures.

scholarly journals Reconstruction of Transmission Pairs for Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Mainland China: Estimation of Superspreading Events, Serial Interval, and Hazard of Infection

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao-Ke Xu ◽  
Xiao Fan Liu ◽  
Ye Wu ◽  
Sheikh Taslim Ali ◽  
Zhanwei Du ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Relationships ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Old People ◽  
Travel History ◽  
Serial Interval ◽  
Significant Barrier ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract Background Knowledge on the epidemiological features and transmission patterns of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is accumulating. Detailed line-list data with household settings can advance the understanding of COVID-19 transmission dynamics. Methods A unique database with detailed demographic characteristics, travel history, social relationships, and epidemiological timelines for 1407 transmission pairs that formed 643 transmission clusters in mainland China was reconstructed from 9120 COVID-19 confirmed cases reported during 15 January–29 February 2020. Statistical model fittings were used to identify the superspreading events and estimate serial interval distributions. Age- and sex-stratified hazards of infection were estimated for household vs nonhousehold transmissions. Results There were 34 primary cases identified as superspreaders, with 5 superspreading events occurred within households. Mean and standard deviation of serial intervals were estimated as 5.0 (95% credible interval [CrI], 4.4–5.5) days and 5.2 (95% CrI, 4.9–5.7) days for household transmissions and 5.2 (95% CrI, 4.6–5.8) and 5.3 (95% CrI, 4.9–5.7) days for nonhousehold transmissions, respectively. The hazard of being infected outside of households is higher for people aged 18–64 years, whereas hazard of being infected within households is higher for young and old people. Conclusions Nonnegligible frequency of superspreading events, short serial intervals, and a higher risk of being infected outside of households for male people of working age indicate a significant barrier to the identification and management of COVID-19 cases, which requires enhanced nonpharmaceutical interventions to mitigate this pandemic.

scholarly journals Serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 was shortened over time by nonpharmaceutical interventions

Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 369 (6507) ◽  
pp. 1106-1109 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheikh Taslim Ali ◽  
Lin Wang ◽  
Eric H. Y. Lau ◽  
Xiao-Ke Xu ◽  
Zhanwei Du ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mainland China ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Illness Onset ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Serial Interval ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

Studies of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), have reported varying estimates of epidemiological parameters, including serial interval distributions—i.e., the time between illness onset in successive cases in a transmission chain—and reproduction numbers. By compiling a line-list database of transmission pairs in mainland China, we show that mean serial intervals of COVID-19 shortened substantially from 7.8 to 2.6 days within a month (9 January to 13 February 2020). This change was driven by enhanced nonpharmaceutical interventions, particularly case isolation. We also show that using real-time estimation of serial intervals allowing for variation over time provides more accurate estimates of reproduction numbers than using conventionally fixed serial interval distributions. These findings could improve our ability to assess transmission dynamics, forecast future incidence, and estimate the impact of control measures.

scholarly journals The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak

Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 368 (6489) ◽  
pp. 395-400 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo Chinazzi ◽  
Jessica T. Davis ◽  
Marco Ajelli ◽  
Corrado Gioannini ◽  
Maria Litvinova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Marked Effect ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Chinese Cities ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Disease Transmission Model ◽  
The Impact

Motivated by the rapid spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in mainland China, we use a global metapopulation disease transmission model to project the impact of travel limitations on the national and international spread of the epidemic. The model is calibrated on the basis of internationally reported cases and shows that, at the start of the travel ban from Wuhan on 23 January 2020, most Chinese cities had already received many infected travelers. The travel quarantine of Wuhan delayed the overall epidemic progression by only 3 to 5 days in mainland China but had a more marked effect on the international scale, where case importations were reduced by nearly 80% until mid-February. Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.

scholarly journals Strongly heterogeneous transmission of COVID–19 in mainland China: local and regional variation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuke Wang ◽  
Peter Teunis
Keyword(s):  
Hot Spot ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Serial Interval ◽  
Contact Data ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Local Reproduction ◽  
The City ◽  
Heterogeneous Transmission

SummaryBackgroundThe outbreak of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) started in the city of Wuhan, China, with a period of rapid initial spread. Transmission on a regional and then national scale was promoted by intense travel during the holiday period of the Chinese New Year. We studied the variation in transmission of COVID-19, locally in Wuhan, as well as on a larger spatial scale, among different cities and even among provinces in mainland China.MethodsIn addition to reported numbers of new cases, we have been able to assemble detailed contact data for some of the initial clusters of COVID-19. This enabled estimation of the serial interval for clinical cases, as well as reproduction numbers for small and large regions.FindingsWe estimated the average serial interval was 4·8 days. For early transmission in Wuhan, any infectious case produced as many as four new cases, transmission outside Wuhan was less intense, with reproduction numbers below two. During the rapid growth phase of the outbreak the region of Wuhan city acted as a hot spot, generating new cases upon contact, while locally, in other provinces, transmission was low.InterpretationCOVID-19 is capable of spreading very rapidly. The sizes of outbreak in provinces of mainland China mainly depended on the numbers of cases imported from Wuhan as the local reproduction numbers were low. The COVID-19 epidemic should be controllable with appropriate interventions.FundingNo specific funding.

scholarly journals Proactive social distancing mitigates COVID-19 outbreaks within a month across 58 mainland China cities

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhanwei Du ◽  
Xiaoke Xu ◽  
Lin Wang ◽  
Spencer J. Fox ◽  
Benjamin J. Cowling ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Chinese Cities ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Community Transmission

AbstractIn early 2020, cities across China enacted strict social distancing measures to contain emerging coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreaks. We estimated the speed with which these measures contained community transmission in each of 58 Chinese cities. On average, containment was achieved 7.83 days (SD 6.79 days) after the implementation of social distancing interventions, with an average reduction in the reproduction number (Rt) of 54.3% (SD 17.6%) over that time period. A single day delay in the implementation of social distancing led to a 2.41 (95% CI: 0.97, 3.86) day delay in containment. Swift social distancing interventions may thus achieve rapid containment of newly emerging COVID-19 outbreaks.

scholarly journals Thoracic Surgery during Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): The Experience of a Level 1 Trauma Center

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy Smelt ◽  
Gowthanan Santhirakumaran ◽  
Paul Vaughan ◽  
Ian Hunt ◽  
Carol Tan
Keyword(s):  
Thoracic Surgery ◽  
Trauma Center ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
World Health ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Trauma Service ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Level 1 Trauma Center

Abstract Background Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a novel coronavirus primarily affecting the respiratory system, was initially diagnosed in Wuhan, China, in late 2019. Identified as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by the World Health Organization, the virus rapidly became a global pandemic. The effects on health care worldwide were unprecedented as countries adapted services to treat masses of critically ill patients.The aim of this study is to analyze the effect that the COVID-19 pandemic had on thoracic surgery at a major trauma center during peak prevalence. Methods Prospective unit data were collected for all patients who underwent thoracic surgery during March 2020 until May 2020 inclusive. Retrospective data were collected from an earlier comparable time period as a comparison. Results In the aforementioned time frame, 117 thoracic surgical operations were performed under the care of four thoracic surgeons. Six operations were performed on three patients who were being treated for SARS-CoV-2. One operation was performed on a patient who had recovered from SARS-CoV-2. There were no deaths due to SARS-CoV-2 in any patient undergoing thoracic surgery. Conclusion This study demonstrates that during the first surge of SARS-CoV-2, it was possible to adapt a thoracic oncology and trauma service without increase in mortality due to COVID-19. This was only possible due to a significant reduction in trauma referrals, cessation of benign and elective work, and the more stringent reprioritization of cancer surgery. This information is vital to learn from our experience and prepare for the predicted second surge and any similar future pandemics we might face.

Sick on the Frontlines:A Cross Sectional Study on COVID-19 Infection, Symptom Severity Amongst Emergency Medicine Residents and Fellows in Urban Academic Hospital Settings (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stacey Frisch ◽  
Sarah Jones ◽  
James Willis ◽  
Richard Sinert
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Emergency Medicine ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Academic Hospital ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Time Period ◽  
High Infection ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Specific Symptoms

BACKGROUND COVID-19, an illness caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, affected many aspects of healthcare worldwide in 2020. From March to May of 2020, New York City (NYC) experienced a large surge of cases. OBJECTIVE The authors aimed to characterize the amount of illness experienced by residents and fellows in 2 NYC hospitals during this time period. METHODS This was a cross-sectional observational study. An IRB-exempt survey was distributed to emergency medicine housestaff in May 2020 and submissions were accepted through August 2020. RESULTS 64 residents and fellows responded to our survey (a 62% response rate). 42% of responders tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Most residents experienced symptoms that could be consistent with COVID-19 however few received PCR testing. Fevers and/or chills along with loss of smell and/or taste were the most specific symptoms for COVID-19, with p-values <0.05. All 13 housestaff who reported no symptoms during the study period tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. CONCLUSIONS Our study demonstrated that the rate of COVID-19 illness among emergency department housestaff is much higher than previously reported. Further studies are needed to characterize illness among medical staff in emergency departments across the nation. The high infection rate among emergency medicine trainees stresses the importance of supplying adequate PPE for healthcare professionals.

scholarly journals Factors Influencing Employees’ Subjective Wellbeing and Job Performance During the COVID-19 Global Pandemic: The Perspective of Social Cognitive Career Theory

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tzai-Chiao Lee ◽  
Michael Yao-Ping Peng ◽  
Lin Wang ◽  
Hao-Kai Hung ◽  
Din Jong
Keyword(s):  
Job Performance ◽  
Organizational Support ◽  
Social Cognitive Career Theory ◽  
Subjective Wellbeing ◽  
Social Cognitive ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Work Conditions ◽  
Career Theory ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Social Cognitive Career

The novel coronavirus disease that emerged at the end of 2019 began threatening the health and lives of millions of people after a few weeks. However, social and economic problems derived from COVID-19 have changed the development of individuals and the whole country. This study examines the work conditions of Taiwanese versus mainland China employees, and evaluates the relationship between support mechanisms and subjective wellbeing from a social cognitive career theory perspective. In this study, a total of 623 Taiwanese questionnaires and 513 mainland China questionnaires were collected to compare the two sample groups in terms of the development of employees’ subjective wellbeing. The results show that the Taiwanese sample had more significant development paths compared to mainland China employees in terms of prior knowledge, perceived organizational support, self-efficacy, employee employability, subjective wellbeing, and job performance. Finally, based on the conclusions, this study proposes some specific suggestions on theoretical mode for future studies.

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