COVID-19 in India: State-wise Analysis and Prediction

AbstractCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a highly infectious disease, was first detected in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. The disease has spread to 212 countries and territories around the world and infected (confirmed) more than three million people. In India, the disease was first detected on 30 January 2020 in Kerala in a student who returned from Wuhan. The total (cumulative) number of confirmed infected people is more than 37000 till now across India (3 May 2020). Most of the research and newspaper articles focus on the number of infected people in the entire country. However, given the size and diversity of India, it may be a good idea to look at the spread of the disease in each state separately, along with the entire country. For example, currently, Maharashtra has more than 10000 confirmed cumulative infected cases, whereas West Bengal has less than 800 confirmed infected cases (1 May 2020). The approaches to address the pandemic in the two states must be different due to limited resources. In this article, we will focus the infected people in each state (restricting to only those states with enough data for prediction) and build three growth models to predict infected people for that state in the next 30 days. The impact of preventive measures on daily infected-rate is discussed for each state.

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COVID-19 AND ITS IMPACT ON THE RIGHTS OF INDIGENOUS COMMUNITIES

Ensemble ◽

10.37948/ensemble-2021-sp1-a015 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol SP-1 (1) ◽

pp. 129-138

Author(s):

Numa Limbu ◽

Keyword(s):

Infectious Disease ◽

Preventive Measures ◽

Indigenous Communities ◽

World Health Organisation ◽

World Health ◽

Way Of Life ◽

Specific Group ◽

Aboriginal Communities ◽

The World ◽

The Impact

COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by the most recently discovered coronavirus. This new virus and disease were unknown before its outbreak in Wuhan, China, 2019. COVID-19 was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organisation (hereafter referred to as WHO). The virus that causes COVID-19 infects people of all ages. According to the report of the WHO, the total cases reported were 62, 573, 188; 43, 193, 999 recovered, and 1,458,305 deaths (Worldometer, 2020). Its impact can be seen on every corner of the world, most prominently on a specific group of the population known as Indigenous Communities. Indigenous communities are also known as tribal people, Adivasis, i.e., aboriginal communities; and are a significant part of the world’s population. They are far from the contemporary trend, economic development and have their own language, religion, cultures, festivals, music, cuisine, etc. Zacharius, T. (2020) mentions that they have lived close to nature, and their way of life is different from than mainstream lifestyle. They mostly depend on agriculture and handicrafts and hold a vast amount of Traditional Knowledge. The Communities are economically and socially backward and live in isolation and self-contained groups. Less development and failure to reach the Indigenous communities have made them face various issues during this pandemic situation. The Coronavirus (hereafter referred to as COVID-19) pandemic poses a grave health threat to the Indigenous communities around the world. The absence of proper healthcare, sanitation, other preventive measures significantly increases the danger. This paper describes the impact of COVID-19 on society, especially on the health of Indigenous Communities.

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Some characteristics of the HIV epidemic in Morocco

Eastern Mediterranean Health Journal ◽

10.26719/2002.8.6.819 ◽

2002 ◽

Vol 08 (06) ◽

pp. 819-825

Author(s):

E. El Harti

Keyword(s):

Preventive Measures ◽

Cumulative Number ◽

Heterosexual Intercourse ◽

Infected People ◽

Subtype B ◽

Hiv Epidemic ◽

First Case ◽

Sub Saharan ◽

Low Prevalence ◽

Hiv 1

The first case of AIDS in Morocco was declared in 1986 and since then the number of AIDS cases has steadily increased. According to the Ministry of Health, the cumulative number of AIDS cases in December 2002 was 1085. HIV in Morocco is acquired mainly through heterosexual intercourse. Individuals aged between 30 and 39 years and in the regions of Marrakech and Agadir have been the most affected. Monitoring of the trend of the epidemic by sentinel surveillance surveys indicates that Morocco is still a low prevalence zone, since prevalence among pregnant women is less than 1%. The estimated number of HIV-infected people in Morocco is around 15 000. It is not clear why the epidemic here has not evolved as it has in the sub-Saharan countries where it is spreading at an alarming rate. Late introduction of HIV-1 subtype B in Morocco, which is relatively less transmissible, circumcision and reduced risk behaviours of Muslims may explain this. Nonetheless, because prevalence has increased in recent years, unless preventive measures are strengthened, the HIV epidemic will worsen in Morocco.

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Incrimination of Dog Vector of Cystic Echinococcosis and Impact of the Appropriate Dogs’ Treatment

Canine Genetics, Health and Medicine ◽

10.5772/intechopen.95776 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Fatima Ezzahra Amarir ◽

Abdelmohcine Aimrane ◽

Abdelkbir Rhalem

Keyword(s):

Developing Countries ◽

Cystic Echinococcosis ◽

Preventive Measures ◽

Relevant Information ◽

Human Populations ◽

Effective Implementation ◽

The World ◽

Risk Of Exposure ◽

The Impact

Dogs are involved in the transmission of several parasitic zoonosis. Among these, hydatidosis is very endemic in many countries of the world. Dog populations are very variable from one region to another, which increases the infestation risks across human populations especially in the developing countries such as in Morocco. Moreover, the risk of exposure is higher in dogs with access to rural slaughterhouses than in owned dogs. As for preventive measures, this calls for effective implementation of the appropriate dogs’ treatment against hydatidosis. Thus, the following chapter updates the most relevant information on the impact of hydatidosis upon human populations and livestock animals, as to stretch understanding on the vector contribution of dogs.

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Educational spaces and environments: in times of Covid-19 pandemic

International Journal of Family & Community Medicine ◽

10.15406/ijfcm.2021.05.00244 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 5 (6) ◽

pp. 193-196

Author(s):

Jailma Cruz da Silva ◽

Orliel dos Santos de Jesus

Keyword(s):

Teaching And Learning ◽

Large Scale ◽

Educational Programs ◽

Infected People ◽

Knowing That ◽

Practical Education ◽

Educational Spaces ◽

The World ◽

The Impact ◽

Different Levels

The appearance of COVID-19 brought to Brazil, and to the world, innumerable methods to contain the increase of infected people. These methods are necessary to avoid the spread of the virus and include social distancing and quarantine of the population. Knowing that these methods have a big impact on the educational system. This study has as its objective to verify the process of teaching and learning, in educational spaces and environments, in times of a pandemic. In order to look for a pattern in established actions in educational programs to incorporate in large scale the tools of educational technology at a distance (distance learning), for example platforms and virtual teaching environments designed to guarantee the pedagogical processes of learning and ameliorate the impact of absence from the classroom during the pandemic, and its post-pandemic consequences. We emphasize the importance of the teacher as mediator, understanding that this professional should respect the different levels of learning of the students and try to carry out activities that help with the improvement of practical education for the appropriate environment and spaces of interaction.

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The legal impact of the Corona pandemic on the deadlines for submitting commercial papers

Journal of University of Human Development ◽

10.21928/juhd.v7n4y2021.pp60-68 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 7 (4) ◽

pp. 60-68

Author(s):

Hardi Tofiq Mustafa

Keyword(s):

Social Distance ◽

Preventive Measures ◽

Social Aspect ◽

Commercial Activities ◽

Force Majeure ◽

Legal Nature ◽

The World ◽

The Subject ◽

The Impact

The Corona pandemic that the world is experiencing is one of the most prominent global disasters today, and has become the subject of great interest from all countries of the world, especially since its effects were not limited to the health aspect only, but extended to the economic, legal, political and social aspect in the lives of individuals, which has resulted in countries entering into conflict with this pandemic by taking a set of preventive measures to combat its spread, and perhaps the most important of these decisions was the imposition of home quarantine on citizens and forcing social distance, in addition to terminating many commercial activities, , which leads to make the implementation of commitments almost impossible. This research aims at determining the legal nature of the Corona pandemic, and whether it can be considered as a force majeure, or is it just an emergency? What is the impact of this pandemic on the deadline for submitting commercial papers for acceptance and fulfillment? Is the legal holder of the commercial transfer, who was not able to submit it for acceptance and fulfillment within the deadlines, considered a negligent holder? Or force majeure can apply here?

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Did COVID-19 Lockdown Brew “Amphan” into a Super Cyclone?

10.20944/preprints202007.0033.v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Velu Vinoj ◽

Debadatta Swain

Keyword(s):

West Bengal ◽

The Novel ◽

Wind Speeds ◽

The World ◽

History Of ◽

The Indian Ocean ◽

Super Cyclone ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

The Impact ◽

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

The world witnessed one of the largest lockdowns in the history of mankind ever, spread over months in an attempt to contain the contact spreading of the novel coronavirus induced COVID-19. As billions around the world stood witness to the staggered lockdown measures, a storm brewed up in the urns of the rather hot Bay of Bengal (BoB) in the Indian Ocean realm. When Thailand proposed the name “Amphan” (pronounced as “Um-pun” meaning ‘the sky’), way back in 2004, little did they realize that it was the christening of the 1st super cyclone (Category-5 hurricane) of the century in this region and the strongest on the globe this year. At the peak, Amphan clocked wind speeds of 168 mph (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) with the pressure drop to 925 h.Pa. What started as a depression in the southeast BoB at 00 UTC on 16th May 2020 developed into a Super Cyclone in less than 48 hours and finally made landfall in the evening hours of 20th May 2020 through the Sundarbans between West Bengal and Bangladesh. Did the impact of the COVID-19 induced lockdown drive an otherwise typical pre-monsoon tropical depression into a super cyclone?

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Analysis of Effectiveness of Quarantine Measures in Controlling COVID-19

10.1101/2020.04.21.20074245 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Garima Kaushik ◽

Shaney Mantri ◽

Shrishti Kaushik ◽

Dhananjay Kalbande ◽

B. N. Chaudhari

Keyword(s):

Preventive Measures ◽

Deterministic Model ◽

Reproduction Number ◽

Intervention Strategies ◽

Control Measures ◽

Transmission Rates ◽

The People ◽

The World ◽

The Impact ◽

Insight Into

AbstractCOVID-19 has created an interesting discourse among the people of the world particularly regarding preventive measures of infectious diseases. In this paper, the authors forecast the spread of the Coronavirus outbreak and study how the reduction of transmission rates influences its decline. The paper makes use of the SIR (Susceptible Infected Recovered) Model which is a deterministic model used in the field of epidemiology-based on differential equations derived from sections of the population. The Basic Reproduction Number (Ro) represents the criticality of the epidemic in numeric terms. Forecasting an epidemic provides insights about the geographic spreading of the disease and the case incidences required to better inform intervention strategists about situations that may occur during the outbreak. Through this research paper, the authors wish to provide an insight into the impact of control measures on the pandemic. By drawing a comparison of three countries and their quarantine measures, observations on the decline of the outbreak are made. Authors intend to guide the intervention strategies of under-resourced countries like India and aid in the overall containment of the outbreak.

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Association of Mental Fatigue due to Long-term Restrictive Measures with Reasoning: A COVID-19 Study

10.31234/osf.io/4yme9 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Majid Manoochehri ◽

Jakub Šrol ◽

Fatemeh Asgharian Asl ◽

Mona Mehdinasab ◽

Zakiya Akhoundi

Keyword(s):

Preventive Measures ◽

Mental Fatigue ◽

Reasoning Ability ◽

Psychological Consequences ◽

Cognitive Reflection ◽

The World ◽

Psychopathological Disorders ◽

Restrictive Measures ◽

The Impact

Coronavirus Disease 2019 broke out in China at the end of 2019 and spread rapidly around the world. In response, many countries have adopted social distancing and lockdown measures. But restrictive measures resulted in many unwanted psychological consequences, including mental fatigue. Mental fatigue in turn is very likely to cause psychopathological disorders and cognitive malfunctions. A cognitive ability that is likely to be affected by mental fatigue is reasoning, while high reasoning ability is a prerequisite for compliance with restrictive measures. The present study aims to explore the association between mental fatigue and reasoning under the impact of long-term restrictive measures. The findings indicated that mental fatigue correlates negatively with cognitive reflection, while it has no significant association with general reasoning. The results also showed that mental fatigue correlates positively with the misperception of the preventive measures and negatively with the incomprehension of the restrictive measures. The implications of the results have been discussed.

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Forecasting the impact of the containment measures for COVID-19 in France, Italy, and Spain

10.21203/rs.3.rs-21774/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Omar A Almohammed ◽

Abdullah A. Alhifany ◽

Yazed S. Al-Ruthia

Keyword(s):

Similar Rate ◽

Response Strategy ◽

Cumulative Number ◽

The European Union ◽

Infected People ◽

First Response ◽

Trained Personnel ◽

Containment Measures ◽

Visual Reference ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background: The Coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) is now a major challenge for healthcare systems in many countries, including some of the G20 countries like China, Italy and France. The purpose of this paper was to estimate how this disease could impact Italy, Spain and France, in comparison to China, based on the timing of their first response to the epidemic.Methods: The study visually estimated when will the suppression strategies implemented in Italy, Spain and France would change the direction of the daily new infections curve. The study utilizes the publicly available data from the WHO website. The curve representing the response strategy from China was used as a visual reference in this case, assuming that the virus is impacting all populations in the same way, transmitted in similar rate, and the time needed from the implementation of the suppression strategies to the appearance of its impact would be identical in all countries. Then, the total number of cases and deaths will be estimated from the produced curve, based on the current death rate among all infected people in each countryResult: The response in the three countries was not as fast as it was in China. Based on the cumulative number of cases at the response time, France was the fastest responder to the epidemic; therefore, we expect it will be the least impacted among three countries with about 97,523 cases and 4,876 deaths. Followed by Spain with approximately 153,013 cases and 14,536 deaths, then Italy with 162,885 cases and 20,034 deaths. The peak date for the new confirmed cases was expected to be around April 2nd for Italy and Spain, and April 6th for France. Then, the new daily cases should be declining to around Zero by the end of April or the beginning of May.Conclusion: Italy, followed by Spain, will be the most impacted countries in the European Union. Therefore, the support for Italy and Spain at this time is very needed, especially with medically trained personnel.

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