scholarly journals Predicting community mortality risk due to CoVID-19 using machine learning and development of a prediction tool

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashis Kumar Das ◽  
Shiba Mishra ◽  
Saji Saraswathy Gopalan
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Open Source ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Brier Score ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Prediction Tool ◽  
Online Prediction

AbstractBackgroundThe recent pandemic of CoVID-19 has emerged as a threat to global health security. There are a very few prognostic models on CoVID-19 using machine learning.ObjectivesTo predict mortality among confirmed CoVID-19 patients in South Korea using machine learning and deploy the best performing algorithm as an open-source online prediction tool for decision-making.Materials and methodsMortality for confirmed CoVID-19 patients (n=3,022) between January 20, 2020 and April 07, 2020 was predicted using five machine learning algorithms (logistic regression, support vector machine, K nearest neighbor, random forest and gradient boosting). Performance of the algorithms was compared, and the best performing algorithm was deployed as an online prediction tool.ResultsThe gradient boosting algorithm was the best performer in terms of discrimination (area under ROC curve=0.966), calibration (Matthews Correlation Coefficient=0.656; Brier Score=0.013) and predictive ability (accuracy=0.987). The best performer algorithm (gradient boosting) was deployed as the online CoVID-19 Community Mortality Risk Prediction tool named CoCoMoRP (https://ashis-das.shinyapps.io/CoCoMoRP/).ConclusionsWe describe the framework for the rapid development and deployment of an open-source machine learning tool to predict mortality risk among CoVID-19 confirmed patients using publicly available surveillance data. This tool can be utilized by potential stakeholders such as health providers and policy makers to triage patients at the community level in addition to other approaches.

scholarly journals Predicting CoVID-19 community mortality risk using machine learning and development of an online prognostic tool

PeerJ ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. e10083 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashis Kumar Das ◽  
Shiba Mishra ◽  
Saji Saraswathy Gopalan
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Open Source ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Brier Score ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Prediction Tool ◽  
Online Prediction

Background The recent pandemic of CoVID-19 has emerged as a threat to global health security. There are very few prognostic models on CoVID-19 using machine learning. Objectives To predict mortality among confirmed CoVID-19 patients in South Korea using machine learning and deploy the best performing algorithm as an open-source online prediction tool for decision-making. Materials and Methods Mortality for confirmed CoVID-19 patients (n = 3,524) between January 20, 2020 and May 30, 2020 was predicted using five machine learning algorithms (logistic regression, support vector machine, K nearest neighbor, random forest and gradient boosting). The performance of the algorithms was compared, and the best performing algorithm was deployed as an online prediction tool. Results The logistic regression algorithm was the best performer in terms of discrimination (area under ROC curve = 0.830), calibration (Matthews Correlation Coefficient = 0.433; Brier Score = 0.036) and. The best performing algorithm (logistic regression) was deployed as the online CoVID-19 Community Mortality Risk Prediction tool named CoCoMoRP (https://ashis-das.shinyapps.io/CoCoMoRP/). Conclusions We describe the development and deployment of an open-source machine learning tool to predict mortality risk among CoVID-19 confirmed patients using publicly available surveillance data. This tool can be utilized by potential stakeholders such as health providers and policymakers to triage patients at the community level in addition to other approaches.

scholarly journals Prediction of Healing Performance of Autogenous Healing Concrete Using Machine Learning

Materials ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (15) ◽  
pp. 4068
Author(s):  
Xu Huang ◽  
Mirna Wasouf ◽  
Jessada Sresakoolchai ◽  
Sakdirat Kaewunruen
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Search Algorithm ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Prediction Performance ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Self Healing ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

Cracks typically develop in concrete due to shrinkage, loading actions, and weather conditions; and may occur anytime in its life span. Autogenous healing concrete is a type of self-healing concrete that can automatically heal cracks based on physical or chemical reactions in concrete matrix. It is imperative to investigate the healing performance that autogenous healing concrete possesses, to assess the extent of the cracking and to predict the extent of healing. In the research of self-healing concrete, testing the healing performance of concrete in a laboratory is costly, and a mass of instances may be needed to explore reliable concrete design. This study is thus the world’s first to establish six types of machine learning algorithms, which are capable of predicting the healing performance (HP) of self-healing concrete. These algorithms involve an artificial neural network (ANN), a k-nearest neighbours (kNN), a gradient boosting regression (GBR), a decision tree regression (DTR), a support vector regression (SVR) and a random forest (RF). Parameters of these algorithms are tuned utilising grid search algorithm (GSA) and genetic algorithm (GA). The prediction performance indicated by coefficient of determination (R2) and root mean square error (RMSE) measures of these algorithms are evaluated on the basis of 1417 data sets from the open literature. The results show that GSA-GBR performs higher prediction performance (R2GSA-GBR = 0.958) and stronger robustness (RMSEGSA-GBR = 0.202) than the other five types of algorithms employed to predict the healing performance of autogenous healing concrete. Therefore, reliable prediction accuracy of the healing performance and efficient assistance on the design of autogenous healing concrete can be achieved.

scholarly journals Comparison of Ensemble Machine Learning Methods for Soil Erosion Pin Measurements

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 42
Author(s):  
Kieu Anh Nguyen ◽  
Walter Chen ◽  
Bor-Shiun Lin ◽  
Uma Seeboonruang
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Ensemble Methods ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Ensemble Machine Learning ◽  
Boosting Method ◽  
Bagging Method

Although machine learning has been extensively used in various fields, it has only recently been applied to soil erosion pin modeling. To improve upon previous methods of quantifying soil erosion based on erosion pin measurements, this study explored the possible application of ensemble machine learning algorithms to the Shihmen Reservoir watershed in northern Taiwan. Three categories of ensemble methods were considered in this study: (a) Bagging, (b) boosting, and (c) stacking. The bagging method in this study refers to bagged multivariate adaptive regression splines (bagged MARS) and random forest (RF), and the boosting method includes Cubist and gradient boosting machine (GBM). Finally, the stacking method is an ensemble method that uses a meta-model to combine the predictions of base models. This study used RF and GBM as the meta-models, decision tree, linear regression, artificial neural network, and support vector machine as the base models. The dataset used in this study was sampled using stratified random sampling to achieve a 70/30 split for the training and test data, and the process was repeated three times. The performance of six ensemble methods in three categories was analyzed based on the average of three attempts. It was found that GBM performed the best among the ensemble models with the lowest root-mean-square error (RMSE = 1.72 mm/year), the highest Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE = 0.54), and the highest index of agreement (d = 0.81). This result was confirmed by the spatial comparison of the absolute differences (errors) between model predictions and observations using GBM and RF in the study area. In summary, the results show that as a group, the bagging method and the boosting method performed equally well, and the stacking method was third for the erosion pin dataset considered in this study.

Prediction and Analysis of Gold Prices using Ensemble Machine Learning Algorithms

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (VI) ◽  
pp. 4367-4374
Author(s):  
Gudipally Chandrashakar
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Ensemble Machine Learning

In this article, we used historical time series data up to the current day gold price. In this study of predicting gold price, we consider few correlating factors like silver price, copper price, standard, and poor’s 500 value, dollar-rupee exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average Value. Considering the prices of every correlating factor and gold price data where dates ranging from 2008 January to 2021 February. Few algorithms of machine learning are used to analyze the time-series data are Random Forest Regression, Support Vector Regressor, Linear Regressor, ExtraTrees Regressor and Gradient boosting Regression. While seeing the results the Extra Tree Regressor algorithm gives the predicted value of gold prices more accurately.

scholarly journals MODIS-FIRMS and ground-truthing based wildfire likelihood mapping of Sikkim Himalaya using machine learning algorithms.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Polash Banerjee
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Tree Cover ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Sikkim Himalaya ◽  
Environmental Features ◽  
Machine Learning Methods

Abstract Wildfires in limited extent and intensity can be a boon for the forest ecosystem. However, recent episodes of wildfires of 2019 in Australia and Brazil are sad reminders of their heavy ecological and economical costs. Understanding the role of environmental factors in the likelihood of wildfires in a spatial context would be instrumental in mitigating it. In this study, 14 environmental features encompassing meteorological, topographical, ecological, in situ and anthropogenic factors have been considered for preparing the wildfire likelihood map of Sikkim Himalaya. A comparative study on the efficiency of machine learning methods like Generalized Linear Model (GLM), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF) and Gradient Boosting Model (GBM) has been performed to identify the best performing algorithm in wildfire prediction. The study indicates that all the machine learning methods are good at predicting wildfires. However, RF has outperformed, followed by GBM in the prediction. Also, environmental features like average temperature, average wind speed, proximity to roadways and tree cover percentage are the most important determinants of wildfires in Sikkim Himalaya. This study can be considered as a decision support tool for preparedness, efficient resource allocation and sensitization of people towards mitigation of wildfires in Sikkim.

scholarly journals Techniques for Detecting Malware Traffic: A Comprehensive Approach to Feature Selection and Classification

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Harsha A K
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Feature Selection ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Malware Detection ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Steady Increase ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting

Abstract: Since the advent of encryption, there has been a steady increase in malware being transmitted over encrypted networks. Traditional approaches to detect malware like packet content analysis are inefficient in dealing with encrypted data. In the absence of actual packet contents, we can make use of other features like packet size, arrival time, source and destination addresses and other such metadata to detect malware. Such information can be used to train machine learning classifiers in order to classify malicious and benign packets. In this paper, we offer an efficient malware detection approach using classification algorithms in machine learning such as support vector machine, random forest and extreme gradient boosting. We employ an extensive feature selection process to reduce the dimensionality of the chosen dataset. The dataset is then split into training and testing sets. Machine learning algorithms are trained using the training set. These models are then evaluated against the testing set in order to assess their respective performances. We further attempt to tune the hyper parameters of the algorithms, in order to achieve better results. Random forest and extreme gradient boosting algorithms performed exceptionally well in our experiments, resulting in area under the curve values of 0.9928 and 0.9998 respectively. Our work demonstrates that malware traffic can be effectively classified using conventional machine learning algorithms and also shows the importance of dimensionality reduction in such classification problems. Keywords: Malware Detection, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, Feature Selection.

scholarly journals Evaluating Variable Selection and Machine Learning Algorithms for Estimating Forest Heights by Combining Lidar and Hyperspectral Data

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 507
Author(s):  
Sanjiwana Arjasakusuma ◽  
Sandiaga Swahyu Kusuma ◽  
Stuart Phinn
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Feature Selection ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Hyperspectral Data ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Forest Height ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting

Machine learning has been employed for various mapping and modeling tasks using input variables from different sources of remote sensing data. For feature selection involving high- spatial and spectral dimensionality data, various methods have been developed and incorporated into the machine learning framework to ensure an efficient and optimal computational process. This research aims to assess the accuracy of various feature selection and machine learning methods for estimating forest height using AISA (airborne imaging spectrometer for applications) hyperspectral bands (479 bands) and airborne light detection and ranging (lidar) height metrics (36 metrics), alone and combined. Feature selection and dimensionality reduction using Boruta (BO), principal component analysis (PCA), simulated annealing (SA), and genetic algorithm (GA) in combination with machine learning algorithms such as multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), extra trees (ET), support vector regression (SVR) with radial basis function, and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) with trees (XGbtree and XGBdart) and linear (XGBlin) classifiers were evaluated. The results demonstrated that the combinations of BO-XGBdart and BO-SVR delivered the best model performance for estimating tropical forest height by combining lidar and hyperspectral data, with R2 = 0.53 and RMSE = 1.7 m (18.4% of nRMSE and 0.046 m of bias) for BO-XGBdart and R2 = 0.51 and RMSE = 1.8 m (15.8% of nRMSE and −0.244 m of bias) for BO-SVR. Our study also demonstrated the effectiveness of BO for variables selection; it could reduce 95% of the data to select the 29 most important variables from the initial 516 variables from lidar metrics and hyperspectral data.

scholarly journals A Comparative Analysis of Enhanced Machine Learning Algorithms for Smart Grid Stability Prediction

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
ANKIT GHOSH ◽  
ALOK KOLE
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Smart Grid ◽  
Smart Grids ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Electricity Sector ◽  
Stochastic Gradient Descent ◽  
Energy Output ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector

<p>Smart grid is an essential concept in the transformation of the electricity sector into an intelligent digitalized energy network that can deliver optimal energy from the source to the consumers. Smart grids being self-sufficient systems are constructed through the integration of information, telecommunication, and advanced power technologies with the existing electricity systems. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is an important technology driver in smart grids. The application of AI techniques in smart grid is becoming more apparent because the traditional modelling optimization and control techniques have their own limitations. Machine Learning (ML) being a sub-set of AI enables intelligent decision-making and response to sudden changes in the customer energy demands, unexpected disruption of power supply, sudden variations in renewable energy output or any other catastrophic events in a smart grid. This paper presents the comparison among some of the state-of-the-art ML algorithms for predicting smart grid stability. The dataset that has been selected contains results from simulations of smart grid stability. Enhanced ML algorithms such as Support Vector Machine (SVM), Logistic Regression, K-Nearest Neighbour (KNN), Naïve Bayes (NB), Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) classifier, XGBoost and Gradient Boosting classifiers have been implemented to forecast smart grid stability. A comparative analysis among the different ML models has been performed based on the following evaluation metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, AUC-ROC, and AUC-PR curves. The test results that have been obtained have been quite promising with the XGBoost classifier outperforming all the other models with an accuracy of 97.5%, recall of 98.4%, precision of 97.6%, F1-score of 97.9%, AUC-ROC of 99.8% and AUC-PR of 99.9%. </p>

scholarly journals Cricket umpire assistance and ball tracking system using a single smartphone camera

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Udit Arora ◽  
Sohit Verma ◽  
Sarthak Sahni ◽  
Tushar Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Open Source ◽  
Motion Tracking ◽  
Tracking System ◽  
Contour Detection ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Ball Tracking ◽  
Histogram Of Gradients

Several ball tracking algorithms have been reported in literature. However, most of them use high-quality video and multiple cameras, and the emphasis has been on coordinating the cameras or visualizing the tracking results. This paper aims to develop a system for assisting the umpire in the sport of Cricket in making decisions like detection of no-balls, wide-balls, leg before wicket and bouncers, with the help of a single smartphone camera. It involves the implementation of Computer Vision algorithms for object detection and motion tracking, as well as the integration of machine learning algorithms to optimize the results. Techniques like Histogram of Gradients (HOG) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) are used for object classification and recognition. Frame subtraction, minimum enclosing circle, and contour detection algorithms are optimized and used for the detection of a cricket ball. These algorithms are applied using the Open Source Python Library - OpenCV. Machine Learning techniques - Linear and Quadratic Regression are used to track and predict the motion of the ball. It also involves the use of open source Python library VPython for the visual representation of the results. The paper describes the design and structure for the approach undertaken in the system for analyzing and visualizing off-air low-quality cricket videos.

scholarly journals Improvement of Support Vector Machine Algorithm in Big Data Background

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Babacar Gaye ◽  
Dezheng Zhang ◽  
Aziguli Wulamu
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Data Mining ◽  
Big Data ◽  
Time Complexity ◽  
Dual Problem ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Original Space

With the rapid development of the Internet and the rapid development of big data analysis technology, data mining has played a positive role in promoting industry and academia. Classification is an important problem in data mining. This paper explores the background and theory of support vector machines (SVM) in data mining classification algorithms and analyzes and summarizes the research status of various improved methods of SVM. According to the scale and characteristics of the data, different solution spaces are selected, and the solution of the dual problem is transformed into the classification surface of the original space to improve the algorithm speed. Research Process. Incorporating fuzzy membership into multicore learning, it is found that the time complexity of the original problem is determined by the dimension, and the time complexity of the dual problem is determined by the quantity, and the dimension and quantity constitute the scale of the data, so it can be based on the scale of the data Features Choose different solution spaces. The algorithm speed can be improved by transforming the solution of the dual problem into the classification surface of the original space. Conclusion. By improving the calculation rate of traditional machine learning algorithms, it is concluded that the accuracy of the fitting prediction between the predicted data and the actual value is as high as 98%, which can make the traditional machine learning algorithm meet the requirements of the big data era. It can be widely used in the context of big data.

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