scholarly journals A surprising formula for the spread of Covid-19 under aggressive management

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivan Cherednik
Keyword(s):  
Bessel Functions ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
High Accuracy ◽  
Viral Fitness ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Aggressive Management ◽  
Normal Frequency ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Momentum Management ◽  
Initial Transmission

AbstractWe propose an algebraic-type formula that describes with high accuracy the total number of detected infections for the Covid-19 pandemic in many countries. Our 2-phase formula can be used as a powerful forecasting tool. It is based on the author’s new theory of momentum management of epidemics; Bessel functions are employed. Its 3 parameters are the initial transmission rate, reflecting the viral fitness and “normal” frequency of contacts in the infected areas, and the intensity of prevention measures at phases 1, 2. Austria, Brazil, Germany, Japan, India, Israel, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, and the USA are considered. For the USA, all states are processed independently and some “interaction” is added; the forecasting software is provided.

scholarly journals Modeling the waves of Covid-19

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivan Cherednik
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Two Phase ◽  
Protective Measures ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Waves ◽  
Phase Solution ◽  
Very High ◽  
Initial Transmission

Classical approaches to modeling the spread of epidemics are based on two assumptions: the exponential growth of the total number of infections and the saturation due to the herd immunity. With Covid-19, the growth is essentially power-type, especially during the middle stages, and the saturation is currently mostly due to the protective measures. Focusing on these features and the role of epidemic management, we obtain differential equations for the total number of detected cases of Covid-19, which describe the actual curves in many countries almost with the accuracy of physics laws. The two-phase solution we propose worked very well almost for the whole periods of the spread practically in all countries we analyzed that reached the saturation during the first waves. Bessel functions play the key role in our approach. Due to a very small number of parameters, namely, the initial transmission rate and the intensity of the hard and soft measures, we obtain a convincing explanation of the surprising uniformity of the curves of the total numbers of detected infections in many different areas. This theory can serve as a tool for forecasting the epidemic spread and evaluating the efficiency of the protective measures, which is very much needed for epidemics. For instance, the accuracy was very high for the early projection for the 3rd wave in the USA; projections for India, South Africa and UK are considered.

scholarly journals The shifting landscape of tick-borne zoonoses: tick-borne encephalitis and Lyme borreliosis in Europe

2001 ◽  
Vol 356 (1411) ◽  
pp. 1045-1056 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah E. Randolph
Keyword(s):  
Lyme Borreliosis ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Vector Borne Diseases ◽  
Tick Borne Encephalitis ◽  
Tbe Virus ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Rate Of Emergence ◽  
The Baltic

The two major vector-borne diseases of northern temperate regions, tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) and Lyme borreliosis (LB), show very different epidemiological patterns, but both have increased significantly in incidence since the 1980s. Insight into the temporal dynamics of TBE, gained from statistical analysis of spatial patterns integrated with biological explanation, suggests that the recent increases in TBE cases in Central Europe and the Baltic States may have arisen largely from changes in human behaviour that have brought more people into contact with infected ticks. Under forecast climate change scenarios, it is predicted that enzootic cycles of TBE virus may not survive along the southern edge of their present range, e.g. in Slovenia, Croatia and Hungary, where case numbers are indeed decreasing. New foci, however, are predicted and have been observed in Scandinavia. At the same time, human impact on the landscape, increasing both the habitat and wildlife hosts of ticks, has allowed tick populations to multiply significantly. This probably accounts for a genuine emergence of LB, with its high potential transmission rate, in both the USA and Europe, although the rate of emergence has been exaggerated by improved surveillance and diagnosis.

scholarly journals ADMINISTRATIVE AND LEGAL MECHANISM OF PREVENTING THE SUICIDE IN UKRAINE

2019 ◽  
pp. 87-93
Author(s):  
S.S. Filonenko
Keyword(s):  
Suicide Prevention ◽  
Causes Of Death ◽  
Scientific Research ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Foreign Countries ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Suicide Prevention Programs ◽  
Legal Mechanism

The article focuses on the study of suicide worldwide and Ukraine in particular. The phenomenon of suicide is relevant in all corners of the world, it affects people of all nations, cultures, religions, articles, and classes. The scientific community in many countries around the world demonstrates indifference to the problem of suicide; Accordingly, suicide is gradually becoming one of the leading causes of death worldwide. Thus, suicide ranks 15th among the leading causes of death. WHO statistics show that suicide is committed twice as often as murder, and emphasizes that this phenomenon is global and reaches critical levels every year. We have analyzed the regulatory framework for suicide at the global level. For example, over the last decades, since 2000, due to the incredible efforts of WHO, this problem has begun to receive national attention. In the developed world, many regulations on suicide prevention have been developed and adopted. In the course of scientific research, we found out that suicide and Ukraine is the seventh cause of death, which confirms the criticality of the problem and the need for its fastest solution. We believe that there is a need today to support such categories of persons as children and young people, servicemen, convicts, and the elderly. The article examines the experience of such foreign countries as the USA, Azerbaijan, Israel, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Great Britain, and other European countries of the world. Finding out what prevention and prevention measures they have implemented in national suicide prevention programs, we see the possibility of their implementation in Ukraine and are convinced of their effectiveness. According to the results of scientific research, we will develop an administrative and legal mechanism for suicide prevention in Ukraine, which can work if all the steps of the algorithm for reducing suicide rates are fulfilled. Keywords: suicide, administrative and legal mechanism, the algorithm of actions, statistics, suicide rate.

scholarly journals ‘Choice’: what we mean by it, and what that means for preventing childhood obesity

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 123-129 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine M Porter
Keyword(s):  
Childhood Obesity ◽  
Obesity Prevention ◽  
Small Subset ◽  
Word Choice ◽  
Individual Choice ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Prevention Policy ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Childhood Obesity Prevention ◽  
The Usa

AbstractObjective(i) To map how US adults value ‘choice’ in the context of obesity policy and (ii) to discuss implications for obesity prevention in children.DesignSemi-structured interviews (n 105) were conducted between 2006 and 2009 about causes of and solutions to childhood obesity. Quotes captured in field notes from community meetings (n 6) on childhood obesity prevention were also analysed. Each use of the word ‘choice’ and its variants was identified in these texts. Content and discourse were analysed to identify the implied values and meaning in each use.SettingNorth-eastern USA.SubjectsOne hundred and five adults, some involved in childhood obesity prevention initiatives.ResultsThree distinct frames of ‘choice’ emerged: (i) having choices (choice as freedom), (ii) making choices (choice as responsibility) and (iii) influencing choices (contextual constraints and impacts on choice). Many speakers used more than one frame over the course of an interview. Most people using the third frame seemed to share the values behind the first two frames, but focused on conditions required to enable people to be accountable for their choices and to make truly free choices. A small subset thought outside the frame of individual choice, valuing, as one person put it, a ‘social contract’.ConclusionsPublic debate in the USA about responsibility for and solutions to rising obesity rates often hinges on notions of ‘choice’. These frames, and the values underlying them, are not mutually exclusive. Respecting the values behind each ‘choice’ frame when crafting obesity prevention policy and employing all three in public communications about such policy may facilitate greater consensus on prevention measures.

Ship Collision with Bridges

1993 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ole Damgaard Larsen
Keyword(s):  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Collision Risk ◽  
Protection Measures ◽  
Planning And Design ◽  
Federal Highway ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Ship Collision ◽  
Average Size ◽  
Existing Bridges ◽  
Vessel Impact

<p>Any struoture in navigable waters constitutes a hazard to shipping and is itself vulnerable to damage or destruction in the event of vessel collision. Worldwide vessel traffic and the average size of vessels continue to lncrease. At the same time, ever more bridges crossing navigable waterways are being planned and constructed, sometimes with inadequate navigation clearance and/or lnadequate protection. <p> The objective of this publication is to provide information and guidelinesfor engineers charged with the planning and design of new bridges, navlgation channels, and prevention and protection measures. Lt offers advice on up­grading and retrofrtting existing bridges and navigation channels. And lt provides the means to evaluate the safety of bridges, vessels, persons and the environment. <p>After reviewing some basics o! navigatlon and vessel traffic, and consider­ing risk acceptance and collision risk, the publication examines vessel impact forces on bridges and proposes appropriate bridge design criteria. Prevention measures, such as regulations and management systems. And protectlon measures and systems are also described. Major international research projects have provided the analytical basis for the publication, including the development of vessel collision guide specifi­c-atrons for the Federal Highway Administration in the USA and the vessel colllsion design crrteria developed for the Great Bell Crossing in Oenmark. <p>Prepared by Ole Damgaard LARSEN, Chairman of the IABSE Working Group "Ship Collision with Bridges'', lhis 132 page publlcation is a must for any engineer dealing with structures in navigable waters.

Ischaemic stroke on anticoagulation therapy and early recurrence in acute cardioembolic stroke: the IAC study

2021 ◽  
pp. jnnp-2021-326166
Author(s):  
Shadi Yaghi ◽  
Nils Henninger ◽  
James A Giles ◽  
Christopher Leon Guerrero ◽  
Eva Mistry ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ischaemic Stroke ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Anticoagulation Therapy ◽  
Early Recurrence ◽  
Cardioembolic Stroke ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Event Risk ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Adjusted Model

Background and purposeA subset of ischaemic stroke patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) have ischaemic stroke despite anticoagulation. We sought to determine the association between prestroke anticoagulant therapy and recurrent ischaemic events and symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage (sICH).MethodsWe included consecutive patients with acute ischaemic stroke and AF from the Initiation of Anticoagulation after Cardioembolic stroke (IAC) study from eight comprehensive stroke centres in the USA. We compared recurrent ischaemic events and delayed sICH risk using adjusted Cox regression analyses between patients who were prescribed anticoagulation (ACp) versus patients who were naïve to anticoagulation therapy prior to the ischaemic stroke (anticoagulation naïve).ResultsAmong 2084 patients in IAC, 1518 had prior anticoagulation status recorded and were followed for 90 days. In adjusted Cox hazard models, ACp was associated with some evidence of a higher risk higher risk of 90-day recurrent ischaemic events only in the fully adjusted model (adjusted HR 1.50, 95% CI 0.99 to 2.28, p=0.058) but not increased risk of 90-day sICH (adjusted HR 1.08, 95% CI 0.46 to 2.51, p=0.862). In addition, switching anticoagulation class was not associated with reduced risk of recurrent ischaemic events (adjusted HR 0.41, 95% CI 0.12 to 1.33, p=0.136) nor sICH (adjusted HR 1.47, 95% CI 0.29 to 7.50, p=0.641).ConclusionAF patients with ischaemic stroke despite anticoagulation may have higher recurrent ischaemic event risk compared with anticoagulation-naïve patients. This suggests differing underlying pathomechanisms requiring different stroke prevention measures and identifying these mechanisms may improve secondary prevention strategies.

scholarly journals Forecasting COVID-19 Cases Using Alpha-Sutte Indicator: A Comparison with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Method

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
A. M. C. H. Attanayake ◽  
S. S. N. Perera
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Specific Treatment ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
Modelling Approach

COVID-19 is a pandemic which has spread to more than 200 countries. Its high transmission rate makes it difficult to control. To date, no specific treatment has been found as a cure for the disease. Therefore, prediction of COVID-19 cases provides a useful insight to mitigate the disease. This study aims to model and predict COVID-19 cases. Eight countries: Italy, New Zealand, the USA, Brazil, India, Pakistan, Spain, and South Africa which are in different phases of COVID-19 distribution as well as in different socioeconomic and geographical characteristics were selected as test cases. The Alpha-Sutte Indicator approach was utilized as the modelling strategy. The capability of the approach in modelling COVID-19 cases over the ARIMA method was tested in the study. Data consist of accumulated COVID-19 cases present in the selected countries from the first day of the presence of cases to September 26, 2020. Ten percent of the data were used to validate the modelling approach. The analysis disclosed that the Alpha-Sutte modelling approach is appropriate in modelling cumulative COVID-19 cases over ARIMA by reporting 0.11%, 0.33%, 0.08%, 0.72%, 0.12%, 0.03%, 1.28%, and 0.08% of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the USA, Brazil, Italy, India, New Zealand, Pakistan, Spain, and South Africa, respectively. Differences between forecasted and real cases of COVID-19 in the validation set were tested using the paired t -test. The differences were not statistically significant, revealing the effectiveness of the modelling approach. Thus, predictions were generated using the Alpha-Sutte approach for each country. Therefore, the Alpha-Sutte method can be recommended for short-term forecasting of cumulative COVID-19 incidences. The authorities in the health care sector and other administrators may use the predictions to control and manage the COVID-19 cases.

scholarly journals Trust in science boosts approval, but not following of COVID-19 rules

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justin Sulik ◽  
Ophelia Deroy ◽  
Guillaume Dezecache ◽  
Martha Newson ◽  
Yi Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indirect Effect ◽  
Political Ideology ◽  
Social Benefits ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Relationship

How essential is trust in science to prevent the spread of COVID-19? Previous work shows that people who trust in science are more likely to comply with official guidelines, which suggests that higher levels of compliance could be achieved by improving trust in science. However, analysis of a global dataset (n=4341) suggests otherwise. Trust in science had a small, indirect effect on adherence to the rules. It affected adherence only insofar as it predicted people's approval of prevention measures such as social distancing. Trust in science also mediated the relationship between political ideology and approval of the measures (more conservative people trusted science less and in turn approved of the measures less). These effects varied across countries, and were especially different in the USA. Overall, these results mean that any increase in trust in science is unlikely to yield strong immediate improvements in following COVID-19 rules. Nonetheless, given its relationships with both ideology and individuals' attitudes to the measures, trust in science may be leveraged to yield longer-term and more sustained social benefits.

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