scholarly journals The Impact of Social Distancing on COVID19 Spread: State of Georgia Case Study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pinar Keskinocak ◽  
Buse Eylul Oruc Aglar ◽  
Arden Baxter ◽  
John Asplund ◽  
Nicoleta Serban
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
School Closure ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Hospital Capacity ◽  
Resource Needs ◽  
The Us ◽  
Population Interactions ◽  
The Impact

As the spread of COVID19 in the US continues to grow, local and state officials face difficult decisions about when and how to transition to a "new normal." The goal of this study is to project the number of COVID19 infections and resulting severe outcomes, and the need for hospital capacity under social distancing, particularly, shelter-in-place and voluntary quarantine for the State of Georgia. We developed an agent-based simulation model to project the infection spread. The model utilizes COVID19-specific parameters and data from Georgia on population interactions and demographics. The simulation study covered a seven and a half-month period, testing different social distancing scenarios, including baselines (no-intervention or school closure only) and combinations of shelter-in-place and voluntary quarantine with different timelines and compliance levels. The following outcomes are compared at the state and community levels: the number and percentage of cumulative and daily new symptomatic and asymptomatic infections, hospitalizations, and deaths; COVID19-related demand for hospital beds, ICU beds, and ventilators. The results suggest that shelter-in-place followed by voluntary quarantine reduced peak infections from approximately 180K under no intervention and 113K under school closure, respectively, to below 53K, and delayed the peak from April to July or later. Increasing shelter-in-place duration from four to five weeks yielded 2-9% and 3-11% decrease in cumulative infection and deaths, respectively. Regardless of the shelter-in-place duration, increasing voluntary quarantine compliance decreased daily new infections from almost 53K to 25K, and decreased cumulative infections by about 50%. The cumulative number of deaths ranged from 6,660 to 19,430 under different scenarios. Peak infection date varied across scenarios and counties; on average, increasing shelter-in-place duration delayed the peak day by 6 days. Overall, shelter-in-place followed by voluntary quarantine substantially reduced COVID19 infections, healthcare resource needs, and severe outcomes.

scholarly journals Mining Google and Apple mobility data: temporal anatomy for COVID-19 social distancing

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Corentin Cot ◽  
Giacomo Cacciapaglia ◽  
Francesco Sannino
Keyword(s):  
Infection Rate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Strong Decrease ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Actual Measure ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Political Decisions ◽  
Mobility Reduction

AbstractWe employ the Google and Apple mobility data to identify, quantify and classify different degrees of social distancing and characterise their imprint on the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe and in the United States. We identify the period of enacted social distancing via Google and Apple data, independently from the political decisions. Our analysis allows us to classify different shades of social distancing measures for the first wave of the pandemic. We observe a strong decrease in the infection rate occurring two to five weeks after the onset of mobility reduction. A universal time scale emerges, after which social distancing shows its impact. We further provide an actual measure of the impact of social distancing for each region, showing that the effect amounts to a reduction by 20–40% in the infection rate in Europe and 30–70% in the US.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Pandemic Response Simulation in a Large City: Impact of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on Reopening Society

2021 ◽  
pp. 0272989X2110030
Author(s):  
Serin Lee ◽  
Zelda B. Zabinsky ◽  
Judith N. Wasserheit ◽  
Stephen M. Kofsky ◽  
Shan Liu
Keyword(s):  
Large City ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
School Closure ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Variable Compliance ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions

As the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to expand, policymakers are striving to balance the combinations of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to keep people safe and minimize social disruptions. We developed and calibrated an agent-based simulation to model COVID-19 outbreaks in the greater Seattle area. The model simulated NPIs, including social distancing, face mask use, school closure, testing, and contact tracing with variable compliance and effectiveness to identify optimal NPI combinations that can control the spread of the virus in a large urban area. Results highlight the importance of at least 75% face mask use to relax social distancing and school closure measures while keeping infections low. It is important to relax NPIs cautiously during vaccine rollout in 2021.

scholarly journals Warlords, the United States, and the state of anarchy in Afghanistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Shah Azami
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
State Building ◽  
The State ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Human Rights Abuses ◽  
Illegal Mining ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

As part of its “War on Terror”, the United States (US) provided immense sums of money and advanced equipment to Afghan warlords in order to defeat and dismantle the Taliban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. Nearly two decades after the 2001 US-led intervention in Afghanistan that toppled the Taliban regime, the US continues supporting the warlords in various ways. As the intervention was also aimed at establishing a functioning state and reconstruction of the war-torn country, the US needed the support of local warlords to achieve its goals. However, over time, warlords and warlordism became a major challenge to the postTaliban state-building project and in many ways undermined the overall security and the state monopoly on violence. These warlords, who had been mostly expelled and defeated by the Taliban regime, returned under the aegis of the B52 bombers, recaptured parts of the country and reestablished their fiefdoms with US support and resources. They not only resist giving up the power and prestige they have accumulated over the past few years, but also hamper the effort to improve governance and enact necessary reforms in the country. In addition, many of them run their private militias and have been accused of serious human rights abuses as well as drug trafficking, arms smuggling, illegal mining and extortion in the areas under their control or influence. In many ways, they challenge the government authority and have become a major hurdle to the country’s emerging from lawlessness and anarchy. This paper explores the emergence and reemergence of warlords in Afghanistan as well as the evolution of chaos and anarchy in the country, especially after the US-led intervention of late 2001. It also analyzes the impact of the post-9/11 US support to Afghan warlords and its negative consequences for the overall stability and the US-led state-building process in Afghanistan.

How did Autistic Children, and their Parents, Experience School Transition during the COVID-19 Pandemic?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aimee Code ◽  
Umar Toseeb ◽  
Kathryn Asbury ◽  
Laura Fox
Keyword(s):  
School Transition ◽  
School Closure ◽  
School Transitions ◽  
Autistic Children ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
New School ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and resultant school closures, social distancing measures, and restrictions placed on routine activities, the start of the academic year in September 2020 was a unique time for those transitioning to a new school. This study aimed to explore the experiences of parents who supported autistic children making a school transition in 2020, and to examine what impact parents perceived the COVID-19 pandemic had on their child’s school transition. Emphasis was placed on identifying facilitating factors that had benefitted school transitions, and barriers, which had negatively impacted these experiences. Semi-structured interviews were carried out with 13 parents of autistic children in the UK. Reflexive thematic analysis was carried out to identify themes in interview data. Parents reported a variety of experiences, and factors that were perceived as facilitatory to some were observed to be barriers by others. For some parents, the COVID-19 pandemic negatively impacted aspects of school transitions. For example, school closure in March 2020, being unable to visit their child’s new school, and social distancing measures were discussed as being barriers to an easy transition. However, other parents identified these factors as being facilitatory for their child or reported that these circumstances created opportunities to approach the school transition in a unique, improved manner. This paper sheds light on the heterogeneity of experiences and perceptions of parents of autistic children, and highlights the need to examine the impact of COVID-19 on school transitions, including practices which may be advantageous to retain.

ISRAELI STUDIES AT THE INSTITUTE OF ORIENTAL STUDIES OF THE RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES: PAGES OF HISTORY (THE BEGINNING OF THE 21ST CENTURY)

2020 ◽  
pp. 219-232
Author(s):  
Tatiana A. Karasova ◽  
◽  
Andrey V. Fedorchenko ◽  
Dmitry A. Maryasis ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Political Development ◽  
The State ◽  
Main Research ◽  
Research Fields ◽  
The Us ◽  
History Of ◽  
Oriental Studies ◽  
Academy Of Sciences ◽  
The Impact

The article presents a historical overview of Israeli studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies RAS in the first two decades of the 21st century. The paper demonstrates the main research fields and publications of the Department for the Study of Israel and Jewish Communities, as well as the list of its heads and research fellows. The article shows how, having successfully overcome the difficulties of the 1990s that were rather hard on Russian Academy as a whole, the staff of the Israeli Studies Department in their numerous publications, speeches at Russian and international academic forums tried to respond to the new challenges in a scholarly way. In the 2000s the number of works published on the history of relations between the USSR / Russia and Israel increased, and this trend continued in subsequent years. Access to the archives for the first time made it possible to analyze the formation and development of Soviet-Israeli relations before the break (in 1953). The department expanded the directions of its academic activity. Its topics included such directions as the study of the collective memory of Jews in modern Russia, cultural identity, cultural memory, religious and secular identity of Russian Jews, attitude towards disability and people with disabilities, study of youth communities in Israel, Russia and Europe, the impact of the US-Israeli relations on the US Jewish community. Development of basic methodology for researching the state of Jewish charity in Moscow was one of the new tasks for the fellows of the Department to solve. The novelty of the tasks also included new methodology of researching the economic and socio-political development of Israel using social networks data. The Department continued to study all aspects of the life of the State of Israel — economic, socio-political and cultural processes developing in the Israeli state, including new features in regional policy and the concept of Israeli security. At present, members of the department’s, in addition to their current activities, are implementing a number of promising projects aimed at strengthening the department’s position as the leading center of Israeli studies in the post-Soviet space.

scholarly journals Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China

Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 368 (6498) ◽  
pp. 1481-1486 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juanjuan Zhang ◽  
Maria Litvinova ◽  
Yuxia Liang ◽  
Yan Wang ◽  
Wei Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Odds Ratio ◽  
School Closure ◽  
Hunan Province ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Susceptibility To Infection ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
The Impact

Intense nonpharmaceutical interventions were put in place in China to stop transmission of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). As transmission intensifies in other countries, the interplay between age, contact patterns, social distancing, susceptibility to infection, and COVID-19 dynamics remains unclear. To answer these questions, we analyze contact survey data for Wuhan and Shanghai before and during the outbreak and contact-tracing information from Hunan province. Daily contacts were reduced seven- to eightfold during the COVID-19 social distancing period, with most interactions restricted to the household. We find that children 0 to 14 years of age are less susceptible to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection than adults 15 to 64 years of age (odds ratio 0.34, 95% confidence interval 0.24 to 0.49), whereas individuals more than 65 years of age are more susceptible to infection (odds ratio 1.47, 95% confidence interval 1.12 to 1.92). Based on these data, we built a transmission model to study the impact of social distancing and school closure on transmission. We find that social distancing alone, as implemented in China during the outbreak, is sufficient to control COVID-19. Although proactive school closures cannot interrupt transmission on their own, they can reduce peak incidence by 40 to 60% and delay the epidemic.

scholarly journals The Timing and Intensity of Social Distancing to Flatten the COVID-19 Curve: The Case of Spain

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (19) ◽  
pp. 7283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel Casares ◽  
Hashmat Khan
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Model ◽  
Early Phase ◽  
Threshold Level ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
The State ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Preventive Actions ◽  
The Impact

The continued spread of COVID-19 suggests a significant possibility of reimposing the lockdowns and stricter social distancing similar to the early phase of pandemic control. We present a dynamic model to quantify the impact of isolation for the contagion curves. The model is calibrated to the COVID-19 outbreak in Spain to study the effects of the isolation enforcement following the declaration of the state of alarm (14 March 2020). The simulations indicate that both the timing and the intensity of the isolation enforcement are crucial for the COVID-19 spread. For example, a 4-day earlier intervention for social distancing would have reduced the number of COVID-19 infected people by 67%. The model also informs us that the isolation enforcement does not delay the peak day of the epidemic but slows down its end. When relaxing social distancing, a reduction of the contagion probability (with the generalization of preventive actions, such as face mask wearing and hands sanitizing) is needed to overcome the effect of a rise in the number of interpersonal encounters. We report a threshold level for the contagion pace to avoid a second COVID-19 outbreak in Spain.

Probation in America: Armed, private and unaffordable?

2011 ◽  
Vol 58 (4) ◽  
pp. 317-332 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Teague
Keyword(s):  
Prison Population ◽  
Community Corrections ◽  
The State ◽  
Probation Officers ◽  
Community Supervision ◽  
Industrial Complex ◽  
Prison Industrial Complex ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Impact

While America is renowned for its enormous prison industrial complex, less academic attention has been paid to the state of probation intervention. The probation population has long been rising more swiftly than the prison population, and one in 45 adults in the USA is now subject to community supervision. This article explores the development of American probation and considers a series of key contextual issues, including the fragmented nature of the US probation system and the philosophies which underpin it, supervision fees, privatization, and the arming of probation officers, in order to illuminate how the community corrections system functions. The Justice Reinvestment initiative is also considered, and the impact of budgetary pressures upon probation is taken into account.

scholarly journals Differential impact of non-pharmaceutical public health interventions on COVID-19 epidemics in the United States

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoshuang Liu ◽  
Xiao Xu ◽  
Guanqiao Li ◽  
Xian Xu ◽  
Yuyao Sun ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
United States ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
The United States ◽  
School Closure ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Individualized Decision

Abstract The widespread pandemic of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) poses an unprecedented global health crisis. In the United States (US), different state governments have adopted various combinations of non-pharmaceutical public health interventions (NPIs) to mitigate the epidemic from February to April, 2020. Quantitative assessment on the effectiveness of NPIs is in great need to assist in guiding the individualized decision making for adjustment of interventions in the US and around the world. However, the impact of these approaches remain uncertain. Based on the reported cases, the effective reproduction number of COVID-19 epidemic for 50 states in the US was estimated. The measurement on the effectiveness of eight different NPIs was conducted by assessing risk ratios (RRs) between and NPIs through a generalized linear model (GLM). Different NPIs were found to have led to different levels of reduction in. Stay-at-home contributed approximately 51% (95% CI 46%-57%), gathering ban (more than 10 people) 19% (14%-24%), non-essential business closure 16% (10%-21%), declaration of emergency 13% (8%-17%), interstate travel restriction 11% (5%-16%), school closure 10% (7%-13%), initial business closure 10% (6%-14%), and gathering ban (more than 50 people) 6% (2%-11%). This retrospective assessment of NPIs on has shown that NPIs played critical roles on epidemic control in the US in the past several months. The quantitative results could guide individualized decision making for future adjustment of NPIs in the US and other countries for COVID-19 and other similar infectious diseases.

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