scholarly journals The Timing and Intensity of Social Distancing to Flatten the COVID-19 Curve: The Case of Spain

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (19) ◽  
pp. 7283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel Casares ◽  
Hashmat Khan
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Model ◽  
Early Phase ◽  
Threshold Level ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
The State ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Preventive Actions ◽  
The Impact

The continued spread of COVID-19 suggests a significant possibility of reimposing the lockdowns and stricter social distancing similar to the early phase of pandemic control. We present a dynamic model to quantify the impact of isolation for the contagion curves. The model is calibrated to the COVID-19 outbreak in Spain to study the effects of the isolation enforcement following the declaration of the state of alarm (14 March 2020). The simulations indicate that both the timing and the intensity of the isolation enforcement are crucial for the COVID-19 spread. For example, a 4-day earlier intervention for social distancing would have reduced the number of COVID-19 infected people by 67%. The model also informs us that the isolation enforcement does not delay the peak day of the epidemic but slows down its end. When relaxing social distancing, a reduction of the contagion probability (with the generalization of preventive actions, such as face mask wearing and hands sanitizing) is needed to overcome the effect of a rise in the number of interpersonal encounters. We report a threshold level for the contagion pace to avoid a second COVID-19 outbreak in Spain.

scholarly journals Early estimates of COVID-19 infections in small, medium and large population clusters

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (9) ◽  
pp. e003055
Author(s):  
Amir Siraj ◽  
Alemayehu Worku ◽  
Kiros Berhane ◽  
Maru Aregawi ◽  
Munir Eshetu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Population ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Local Context ◽  
African Region ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Population Sizes ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Impact

IntroductionSince its emergence in late December 2019, COVID-19 has rapidly developed into a pandemic in mid of March with many countries suffering heavy human loss and declaring emergency conditions to contain its spread. The impact of the disease, while it has been relatively low in the sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as of May 2020, is feared to be potentially devastating given the less developed and fragmented healthcare system in the continent. In addition, most emergency measures practised may not be effective due to their limited affordability as well as the communal way people in SSA live in relative isolation in clusters of large as well as smaller population centres.MethodsTo address the acute need for estimates of the potential impacts of the disease once it sweeps through the African region, we developed a process-based model with key parameters obtained from recent studies, taking local context into consideration. We further used the model to estimate the number of infections within a year of sustained local transmissions under scenarios that cover different population sizes, urban status, effectiveness and coverage of social distancing, contact tracing and usage of cloth face mask.ResultsWe showed that when implemented early, 50% coverage of contact tracing and face mask, with 33% effective social distancing policies can bringing the epidemic to a manageable level for all population sizes and settings we assessed. Relaxing of social distancing in urban settings from 33% to 25% could be matched by introduction and maintenance of face mask use at 43%.ConclusionsIn SSA countries with limited healthcare workforce, hospital resources and intensive care units, a robust system of social distancing, contact tracing and face mask use could yield in outcomes that prevent several millions of infections and thousands of deaths across the continent.

scholarly journals Multivariate regression analysis in the probability of deaths in COVID-19 cases: a case study in the State of Pará, Amazon region, Brazil

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. e71291110299
Author(s):  
Cássio Pinho dos Reis ◽  
Herson Oliveira da Rocha ◽  
Nayara de Araújo Muzili Reis ◽  
Sávio Pinho dos Reis ◽  
Gustavo Nogueira Dias ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Probabilistic Model ◽  
Odds Ratio ◽  
Multivariate Regression Analysis ◽  
The State ◽  
Metropolitan Region ◽  
Great Effort ◽  
Infected People ◽  
And Gender ◽  
The Impact

Since the first detected cases of COVID-19 in Brazil, researchers have made a great effort to try to understand the disease. Understanding the impact of the disease on people can be instrumental in identifying which groups can be considered at risk. Therefore, this study researches a probabilistic model based on a statistical model of non-linear regression analyzing the following variables: age, if you are a health professional, if you are resident in the Metropolitan Region of Belém (RMB), State of Pará and gender with the objective of identifying those people who have a greater impact on the number of people infected and killed by COVID-19, that is, people who are more likely to die. To carry out the research, we used the data of all infected people by COVID-19 in the State of Pará until July 2020. It can be verified according to the proposal of the probabilistic model that elderly people, with a odds ratio of 1.69 (95% CI 1.52-1.88), residents of Metropolitan Region of Belém, with an odds ratio of 2.14 (95% CI 2.02 - 2.27) and men, with an odds ratio of 1.83 (95% CI 1.73 - 1.95) are groups of people with a higher risk of dying from diseases, while health professionals, with a 0.36 chance ratio (CI9 5% 0.29 - 0.45), are less likely to die.

scholarly journals Comparing Public Perceptions and Preventive Behaviors During the Early Phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Hong Kong and the United Kingdom: Cross-sectional Survey Study (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leigh Bowman ◽  
Kin On Kwok ◽  
Rozlyn Redd ◽  
Yuanyuan Yi ◽  
Helen Ward ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Risk Perception ◽  
Early Phase ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND Given the public health responses to previous respiratory disease pandemics, and in the absence of treatments and vaccines, the mitigation of the COVID-19 pandemic relies on population engagement in nonpharmaceutical interventions. This engagement is largely driven by risk perception, anxiety levels, and knowledge, as well as by historical exposure to disease outbreaks, government responses, and cultural factors. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study is to compare psychobehavioral responses in Hong Kong and the United Kingdom during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS Comparable cross-sectional surveys were administered to adults in Hong Kong and the United Kingdom during the early phase of the epidemic in each setting. Explanatory variables included demographics, risk perception, knowledge of COVID-19, anxiety level, and preventive behaviors. Responses were weighted according to census data. Logistic regression models, including effect modification to quantify setting differences, were used to assess the association between the explanatory variables and the adoption of social distancing measures. RESULTS Data from 3431 complete responses (Hong Kong, 1663; United Kingdom, 1768) were analyzed. Perceived severity of symptoms differed by setting, with weighted percentages of 96.8% for Hong Kong (1621/1663) and 19.9% for the United Kingdom (366/1768). A large proportion of respondents were abnormally or borderline anxious (Hong Kong: 1077/1603, 60.0%; United Kingdom: 812/1768, 46.5%) and regarded direct contact with infected individuals as the transmission route of COVID-19 (Hong Kong: 94.0%-98.5%; United Kingdom: 69.2%-93.5%; all percentages weighted), with Hong Kong identifying additional routes. Hong Kong reported high levels of adoption of various social distancing measures (Hong Kong: 32.6%-93.7%; United Kingdom: 17.6%-59.0%) and mask-wearing (Hong Kong: 98.8% (1647/1663); United Kingdom: 3.1% (53/1768)). The impact of perceived severity of symptoms and perceived ease of transmission of COVID-19 on the adoption of social distancing measures varied by setting. In Hong Kong, these factors had no impact, whereas in the United Kingdom, those who perceived their symptom severity as “high” were more likely to adopt social distancing (adjusted odds ratios [aORs] 1.58-3.01), and those who perceived transmission as “easy” were prone to adopt both general social distancing (aOR 2.00, 95% CI 1.57-2.55) and contact avoidance (aOR 1.80, 95% CI 1.41-2.30). The impact of anxiety on adopting social distancing did not vary by setting. CONCLUSIONS Our results suggest that health officials should ascertain baseline levels of risk perception and knowledge in populations, as well as prior sensitization to infectious disease outbreaks, during the development of mitigation strategies. Risk should be communicated through suitable media channels—and trust should be maintained—while early intervention remains the cornerstone of effective outbreak response.

scholarly journals Public perceptions and preventive behaviours during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comparative study between Hong Kong and the United Kingdom

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leigh Bowman ◽  
Kin On Kwok ◽  
Rozlyn Redd ◽  
Yuanyuan Yi ◽  
Helen Ward ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Risk Perception ◽  
Early Phase ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Perceived Severity ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Impact

Background: In the absence of treatments and vaccines, the mitigation of COVID-19 relies on population engagement in non-pharmaceutical interventions, which is driven by their risk perception, anxiety level and knowledge. There may also be regional discrepancies in these drivers due to different historical exposure to disease outbreaks, government responses and cultures. As such, this study compared psycho-behavioral responses in two regions during the early phase of the pandemic. Methods: Comparable cross-sectional surveys were administered among adults in Hong Kong (HK) and the United Kingdom (UK) during the early phase of each respective epidemic. Explanatory variables included demographics, risk perception and knowledge of COVID-19, anxiety level and preventive behaviors. Responses were weighted according to census data. Logistic regression models, including interaction terms to quantify regional differences, were used to assess the association between explanatory variables and the adoption of social-distancing measures. Results: Data of 3431 complete responses (HK:1663; UK:1768) were analysed. Perceived severity differed by region (HK: 97.5%; UK: 20.7%). A large proportion of respondents were abnormally/borderline anxious (HK:64.8%; UK:45.9%) and regarded direct contact with infected individuals as the transmission route of COVID-19 (HK:94.0-98.5%; UK:69.2-93.5%), with HK identifying additional routes. HK reported high levels of adoption of social-distancing (HK:32.4-93.7%; UK:17.6-59.0%) and mask-wearing (HK:98.8%; UK:3.1%). The impact of perceived severity and perceived ease of transmission on the adoption of social-distancing varied by region. In HK, they had no impact, whereas in the UK, those who perceived severity as 'high' were more likely to adopt social-distancing (aOR:1.58-3.01), and those who perceived transmission as 'easy' were prone to both general social-distancing (aOR:2.00, 95% CI:1.57, 2.55) and contact avoidance (aOR:1.80, 95% CI: 1.41, 2.30). The impact of anxiety on adopting social-distancing did not vary by region. Discussion: These results suggest that health officials should ascertain and consider baseline levels of risk perception and knowledge in the populations, as well as prior sensitisation to infectious disease outbreaks, during the development of mitigation strategies. Risk communication should be done through suitable media channels - and trust should be maintained - while early intervention remains the cornerstone of effective outbreak response.

scholarly journals Impacts of K-12 school reopening on the COVID-19 epidemic in Indiana, USA

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guido Espana ◽  
Sean Cavany ◽  
Rachel J Oidtman ◽  
Carly Barbera ◽  
Alan Costello ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Face Mask ◽  
The United States ◽  
The State ◽  
Data Types ◽  
Primary Analysis ◽  
Operating Capacity ◽  
Multiple Data ◽  
Alternative Scenarios ◽  
K 12 ◽  
The Impact

In the United States, schools closed in March 2020 due to COVID-19 and have begun reopening as of August 2020, despite continuing transmission of SARS-CoV-2. To determine the impact of school reopening with varying levels of operating capacity and face-mask adherence, we used an agent-based model calibrated to and validated against multiple data types from the state of Indiana, USA. In our model, transmission can occur in schools, workplaces, community settings, and households, all of which are structured in a realistic way according to state geography and demography. Using this model, we quantified the burden of COVID-19 on K-12 students, teachers, their families, and the general population under alternative scenarios about school reopening. In our primary analysis, we considered three levels of school operating capacity (50%, 75%, and 100%) and three assumptions about face-mask adherence in schools (50%, 75%, and 100%). Under a scenario in which schools operate remotely, we projected 45,579 (95% CrI: 14,109-132,546) infections and 790 (95% CrI: 176-1680) deaths between August 24 and December 31. Reopening at 100% capacity with 50% face-mask adherence in schools resulted in a proportional increase of 42.9 (95% CrI: 41.3-44.3) times that number of infections and 9.2 (95% CrI: 8.9-9.5) times that number of deaths. In contrast, operating at 50% capacity with 100% face-mask adherence resulted in only an 11% (95% CrI: 5%-18%) increase in the number of infections compared to the scenario in which schools operate remotely. We conclude that reduced capacity and high face-mask adherence in schools substantially reduce the burden of COVID-19, both among those with direct ties to schools and across the state. As Indiana and other states proceed with school reopening, our results illustrate quantitatively the benefits of safety measures that schools are undertaking, underscoring their value for both schools and their communities.

scholarly journals Market challenges for local specialty crop producers during the early phase of COVID-19 in North Carolina

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Hannah Dankbar ◽  
Ethan Phillips ◽  
Angela Cruz ◽  
Emma Volk ◽  
Mark Hoffmann
Keyword(s):  
North Carolina ◽  
Early Phase ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
The State ◽  
Government Agencies ◽  
Modern History ◽  
Health Safety ◽  
Specialty Crop ◽  
The Impact

In March of 2020, as the number of COVID-19 cases increased in North Carolina (NC), the state encouraged people to stay at home; this included closing restaurants and canceling large events, as well as reducing the number of people gathering. The economic and health crises created by COVID-19 forced specialty crop producers who sell to local markets, such as restaurants and institutions, to pivot their marketing plans as the growing season began to ramp up. This article reports the responses to the first in a series of producer surveys assessing the impact of the economic and health crises on crop production, market channels, and producer concerns during one of the most insecure times in modern history. Results show that producers who could pivot their marketing plans mostly increased sales through online channels and farm stands. However, almost 50% of the usual market channels were reported to be closed due to COVID-19. Additionally, most producers voiced concerns about economic and health safety in the immediate future. To address these concerns as the pandemic unfolded, there was a need for trusted information. Respondents reported that they rely on Extension and other government agencies for this information and updates regarding the pandemic. This survey captured the early impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the specialty crop-producing industry in NC. Additional surveys will provide information on how the pandemic evolved during 2020.

scholarly journals The Impact of Social Distancing on COVID19 Spread: State of Georgia Case Study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pinar Keskinocak ◽  
Buse Eylul Oruc Aglar ◽  
Arden Baxter ◽  
John Asplund ◽  
Nicoleta Serban
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
School Closure ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Hospital Capacity ◽  
Resource Needs ◽  
The Us ◽  
Population Interactions ◽  
The Impact

As the spread of COVID19 in the US continues to grow, local and state officials face difficult decisions about when and how to transition to a "new normal." The goal of this study is to project the number of COVID19 infections and resulting severe outcomes, and the need for hospital capacity under social distancing, particularly, shelter-in-place and voluntary quarantine for the State of Georgia. We developed an agent-based simulation model to project the infection spread. The model utilizes COVID19-specific parameters and data from Georgia on population interactions and demographics. The simulation study covered a seven and a half-month period, testing different social distancing scenarios, including baselines (no-intervention or school closure only) and combinations of shelter-in-place and voluntary quarantine with different timelines and compliance levels. The following outcomes are compared at the state and community levels: the number and percentage of cumulative and daily new symptomatic and asymptomatic infections, hospitalizations, and deaths; COVID19-related demand for hospital beds, ICU beds, and ventilators. The results suggest that shelter-in-place followed by voluntary quarantine reduced peak infections from approximately 180K under no intervention and 113K under school closure, respectively, to below 53K, and delayed the peak from April to July or later. Increasing shelter-in-place duration from four to five weeks yielded 2-9% and 3-11% decrease in cumulative infection and deaths, respectively. Regardless of the shelter-in-place duration, increasing voluntary quarantine compliance decreased daily new infections from almost 53K to 25K, and decreased cumulative infections by about 50%. The cumulative number of deaths ranged from 6,660 to 19,430 under different scenarios. Peak infection date varied across scenarios and counties; on average, increasing shelter-in-place duration delayed the peak day by 6 days. Overall, shelter-in-place followed by voluntary quarantine substantially reduced COVID19 infections, healthcare resource needs, and severe outcomes.

Russia - European Union: The continuation ofthe sanctions standoff

2017 ◽  
pp. 114-127
Author(s):  
M. Klinova ◽  
E. Sidorova
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Economic Sanctions ◽  
Current Data ◽  
The State ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Year 2013

The article deals with economic sanctions and their impact on the state and prospects of the neighboring partner economies - the European Union (EU) and Russia. It provides comparisons of current data with that of the year 2013 (before sanctions) to demonstrate the impact of sanctions on both sides. Despite the fact that Russia remains the EU’s key partner, it came out of the first three partners of the EU. The current economic recession is caused by different reasons, not only by sanctions. Both the EU and Russia have internal problems, which the sanctions confrontation only exacerbates. The article emphasizes the need for a speedy restoration of cooperation.

PERTANGGUNGJAWABAN KERUGIAN NEGARA DALAM PENGELOLAAN KEUANGAN DAERAH

EDUKASI ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hendra Karianga
Keyword(s):  
Financial Management ◽  
Criminal Liability ◽  
The State ◽  
Legal Proceedings ◽  
Regional Finance ◽  
Regional Budget ◽  
State Finance ◽  
Budget Policy ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
The Impact

Sources of revenue and expenditure of APBD (regional budget) can be allocated to finance the compulsory affairs and optional affairs in the form of programs and activities related to the improvement of public services, job creation, poverty alleviation, improvement of environmental quality, and regional economic growth. The implications of these policies is the need for funds to finance the implementation of the functions, that have become regional authority, is also increasing. In practice, regional financial management still poses a complicated issue because the regional head are reluctant to release pro-people regional budget policy, even implication of regional autonomy is likely to give birth to little kings in region causing losses to state finance and most end up in legal proceedings. This paper discusses the loss of state finance and forms of liability for losses to the state finance. The result of the study can be concluded firstly,  there are still many differences in giving meaning and definition of the loss of state finace and no standard definition of state losses, can cause difficulties. The difficulty there is in an effort to determine the amount of the state finance losses. The calculation of state/regions losses that occur today is simply assessing the suitability of the size of the budget and expenditure without considering profits earned by the community and the impact of the use of budget to the community. Secondly, the liability for losses to the state finance is the fulfillment of the consequences for a person to give or to do something in the regional financial management by giving birth to three forms of liability, namely the Criminal liability, Civil liability, and Administrative liability.Keywords: state finance losses, liability, regional finance.

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