scholarly journals When Second Best Might be the Best: Using Hospitalization Data to Monitor the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter J Mallow ◽  
Michael Jones
Keyword(s):  
Moving Average ◽  
Hospital Utilization ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Ideal Solution ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Hospital Administrators ◽  
Utilization Data ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Ideal

The novel coronavirus' high rate of asymptomatic transmission combined with a lack of testing kits call for a different approach to monitor its spread and severity. We proposed the use of hospitalizations and hospital utilization data to monitor the spread and severity. A proposed threshold of a declining 7-day moving average over a 14-day period, "7&14" was set to communicate when a wave of the novel coronavirus may have passed. The state of Ohio was chosen to illustrate this threshold. While not the ideal solution for monitoring the spread of the epidemic, the proposed approach is an easy to implement framework accounting for limitations of the data inherent in the current epidemic. Hospital administrators and policy makers may benefit from incorporating this approach into their decision making.

scholarly journals SARS-CoV-2: preliminary study of infected human nasopharyngeal tissue by high resolution microscopy

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian Mondeja ◽  
Odalys Valdes ◽  
Sonia Resik ◽  
Ananayla Vizcaino ◽  
Emilio Acosta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Control Sample ◽  
Negative Control ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Apical Region ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Rt Pcr ◽  
Crown Shape ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
High Resolution Microscopy

Abstract Background The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is the etiological agent of COVID-19. This virus has become one of the most dangerous in recent times with a very high rate of transmission. At present, several publications show the typical crown-shape of the novel coronavirus grown in cell cultures. However, an integral ultramicroscopy study done directly from clinical specimens has not been published. Methods Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected from 12 Cuban individuals, six asymptomatic and RT-PCR negative (negative control) and six others from a COVID-19 symptomatic and RT-PCR positive for SARS CoV-2. Samples were treated with an aldehyde solution and processed by scanning electron microscopy (SEM), confocal microscopy (CM) and, atomic force microscopy. Improvement and segmentation of coronavirus images were performed by a novel mathematical image enhancement algorithm. Results The images of the negative control sample showed the characteristic healthy microvilli morphology at the apical region of the nasal epithelial cells. As expected, they do not display virus-like structures. The images of the positive sample showed characteristic coronavirus-like particles and evident destruction of microvilli. In some regions, virions budding through the cell membrane were observed. Microvilli destruction could explain the anosmia reported by some patients. Virus-particles emerging from the cell-surface with a variable size ranging from 80 to 400 nm were observed by SEM. Viral antigen was identified in the apical cells zone by CM. Conclusions The integral microscopy study showed that SARS-CoV-2 has a similar image to SARS-CoV. The application of several high-resolution microscopy techniques to nasopharyngeal samples awaits future use.

scholarly journals Epidemiological Features of the Incidence of COVID-19 in Moscow in the Period from March 1 to August 31, 2020

2021 ◽  
pp. 57-62
Author(s):  
AV Ivanenko ◽  
DV Soloviev ◽  
NA Volkova ◽  
VM Glinenko ◽  
OA Smirnova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Significance ◽  
High Rate ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Upper Respiratory Tract ◽  
Epidemiological Features ◽  
Student’S T ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Tract Infections ◽  
The City ◽  
Spearman’S Correlation

Introduction: Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) infection is a global healthcare and social problem due to a rapid ubiquitous spread of the virus, a high rate of complications and deaths. The disease is often asymptomatic, which can contribute to its spread, while the most common complication is the development of pneumonia with or without acute respiratory failure and respiratory distress syndrome, which are often fatal. These characteristics of the disease, along with the almost complete lack of immunity in the population around the world (before the mass spread), allowed SARS-CoV-2 to spread freely among the population of all countries. Our objective was to assess the epidemiological features of the incidence of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the population of the city of Moscow. Materials and methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of all confirmed COVID-19 cases, the total number of diagnostic tests for COVID-19, and the incidence of upper respiratory tract infections registered in Moscow from March 1 to August 31, 2020. The correlation analysis was performed by calculating the Spearman’s correlation coefficient and subsequent statistical significance of differences in the compared relative values (p) from the Student’s t-test. Confidence intervals were determined with the calculation of average errors of the compared variables – m(σ). Conclusion: The revealed features of the COVID-19 incidence in Moscow help establish the factors influencing the development of the epidemic process in the city and give an accurate prediction of the COVID-19 situation for the future.

scholarly journals Predicting the Impact of COVID-19 on Australian Universities

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arran Thatcher ◽  
Mona Zhang ◽  
Hayden Todoroski ◽  
Anthony Chau ◽  
Joanna Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
International Student ◽  
Department Of Education ◽  
Full Time ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Full Time Equivalent ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Education Industry ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Australian Universities

This article explores the impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) upon Australia’s education industry with a particular focus on universities. With the high dependence that the revenue structures of Australian universities have on international student tuition fees, they are particularly prone to the economic challenges presented by COVID-19. As such, this study considers the impact to total Australian university revenue and employment caused by the significant decline in the number of international students continuing their studies in Australia during the current pandemic. We use a linear regression model calculated from data published by the Australian Government’s Department of Education, Skills, and Employment (DESE) to predict the impact of COVID-19 on total Australian university revenue, the number of international student enrolments in Australian universities, and the number of full-time equivalent (FTE) positions at Australian universities. Our results have implications for both policy makers and university decision makers, who should consider the need for revenue diversification in order to reduce the risk exposure of Australian universities.

scholarly journals Electrolyte deficiency after the novel coronavirus infection and post-COVID asthenia

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 245-251
Author(s):  
E.Yu. Ebzeeva ◽  
◽  
O.D. Ostroumova ◽  
I.F. Krotkova ◽  
E.V. Mironova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pathological Condition ◽  
Acute Infection ◽  
High Rate ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Specific Syndrome ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Somatic Disorders ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Asthenia is a non-specific syndrome common in general practice and occurs in patients with acute and chronic somatic disorders, including infectious ones. The novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) is one of the leading causes of severe and persistent asthenia. The hypothalamicpituitary- adrenal axis is essential for the development of asthenia since its dysfunction provoked by various factors (including infections) results in electrolyte metabolism impairment with hypokalemia and hypomagnesemia. This paper describes a hypothetical pathogenic mechanism of asthenia after the COVID-19, which implies over-activation of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system that, in particular, leads to hypokalemia. The role of pharmacotherapy prescribed for the COVID-19 is highlighted. Study results demonstrate a high rate of hypokalemia in patients with the COVID-19 and suggest a direct correlation between the severity of hypokalemia and the activity of viral infection. Furthermore, the detection of electrolyte abnormalities is essential in both acute infection and convalescence. Finally, the authors consider ways of relieving this pathological condition. KEYWORDS: novel coronavirus infection, COVID-19, post-infectious asthenia, angiotensin-converting enzyme, hypokalemia, hypomagnesemia. FOR CITATION: Ebzeeva E.Yu., Ostroumova O.D., Krotkova I.F. et al. Electrolyte deficiency after the novel coronavirus infection and post- COVID asthenia. Russian Medical Inquiry. 2021;5(5):245–251 (in Russ.). DOI: 10.32364/2587-6821-2021-5-5-245-251.

scholarly journals What is required to prevent a second major outbreak of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 upon lifting the metropolitan-wide quarantine of Wuhan city, China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Mingwang Shen ◽  
Xiaomeng Ma ◽  
Shu Su ◽  
Wenfeng Gong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Rate ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
Facial Mask ◽  
Staff Members ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Major Outbreak ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact

BackgroundThe Chinese government implemented a metropolitan-wide quarantine of Wuhan city on 23rd January 2020 to curb the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19. Lifting of this quarantine is imminent. We modelled the effects of two key health interventions on the epidemic when the quarantine is lifted.MethodWe constructed a compartmental dynamic model to forecast the trend of the COVID-19 epidemic at different quarantine lifting dates and investigated the impact of different rates of public contact and facial mask usage on the epidemic.ResultsWe estimated that at the end of the epidemic, a total of 65,572 (46,156-95,264) individuals would be infected by the virus, among which 16,144 (14,422-23,447, 24.6%) would be infected through public contacts, 45,795 (32,390-66,395, 69.7%) through household contact, 3,633 (2,344-5,865, 5.5%) through hospital contacts (including 783 (553-1,134) non-COVID-19 patients and 2,850 (1,801-4,981) medical staff members). A total of 3,262 (1,592-6,470) would die of COVID-19 related pneumonia in Wuhan. For an early lifting date (21st March), facial mask needed to be sustained at a relatively high rate (≥85%) if public contacts were to recover to 100% of the pre-quarantine level. In contrast, lifting the quarantine on 18th April allowed public person-to-person contact adjusted back to the pre-quarantine level with a substantially lower level of facial mask usage (75%). However, a low facial mask usage (<50%) combined with an increased public contact (>100%) would always lead a significant second outbreak in most quarantine lifting scenarios. Lifting the quarantine on 25th April would ensure a smooth decline of the epidemics regardless of the combinations of public contact rates and facial mask usage.ConclusionThe prevention of a second epidemic is viable after the metropolitan-wide quarantine is lifted but requires a sustaining high facial mask usage and a low public contact rate.

scholarly journals Pakistan specific COVID-19 overview and recommendations

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 01-02
Author(s):  
Ome Kalsoom Afridi ◽  
Johar Ali
Keyword(s):  
Standard Operating Procedure ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Alternative Plan ◽  
First Case ◽  
Standard Operating ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Almost All

Soon after its emergence in Wuhan, China in late December, the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) spread rapidly to the other parts of the world and acquired a pandemic status. Pakistan reported its first case of SARS-CoV-2 on February 26, 2020, in Karachi. Since then, a higher prevalence of COVID-19 was reported from almost all major cities of Pakistan. Owing to the high rate of COVID-19, Pakistan enforced a lockdown across the whole country on March 24, 2020. This lockdown controlled the SARS-CoV-2 successfully; however, severe economic losses were observed in the lockdown Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) guidelines. We, therefore, proposed an alternative plan termed as “regulated reverse lockdown” which will help decrease the burden of COVID-19 without having a negative effect on the economy. The present editorial will address the potential flaws in the already imposed lockdown and will propose an alternative plan to make the lockdown more effective in terms of COVID-19 prevalence and economic growth of Pakistan.

scholarly journals CONSCIOUSNESS AND PRECAUTIONARY HABIT RELATING TO COVID-19 INFECTIONS AMONG STUDENTS IN NWAFOR ORIZU COLLEGE OF EDUCATION, NSUGBE

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
NWANKWO NONYELUM STELLA
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Design Method ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
College Of Education ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
History Of ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Descriptive Survey

Objective: Similar to outbreaks of many other infectious diseases, success in controlling the novel coronavirus infection requires a timely and accurate monitoring of the epidemic. The main objective of the present study is to assess consciousness and precautionary habit relating to COVID-19 infections among students. Methods: The descriptive survey research design method was used. The researcher formulated two research questions. A self-developed questionnaire was adopted for data collection. The sample size consists of students in Nwafor Orizu College of Education, Nsugbe, selected using purposive random sampling technique, subsequently, thirty copies of the questionnaire were administered by the researcher. Mean and standard deviation were used to analyze the data. Results: The study showed among other findings that students are conscious about the possibility of the disease transmission by droplets when an infected person cough, sneezes, or speaks. These findings have the vantage of providing the researchers, government, students, policy makers, and government with adequate and correct baseline data on consciousness and precautionary habit relating to COVID-19 infections among students. Conclusion: Based on the research findings, it was concluded that the world has a long history of successful efforts to prevent or cure widespread infections. The main points in preventing the spread in society are hand hygiene, social distancing, and quarantine. With increased testing capacity, detecting more positive patients in the community will also enable the reduction of secondary cases with stricter quarantine rules.

scholarly journals Fighting COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 80 (3) ◽  
pp. 698-701 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. M. O. Campos ◽  
C. B. S. Oliveira ◽  
J. M. A. Andrade ◽  
J. I. N. Oliveira
Keyword(s):  
Drug Targets ◽  
Vaccine Development ◽  
High Rate ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Rate Of Spread ◽  
Specific Effects ◽  
Main Protease ◽  
Clinical Strategies ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Transmembrane Serine Protease

Abstract The current COVID-19 pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) poses a threat to global health owing to its high rate of spread and severe forms of respiratory infection. The lack of vaccines and antivirals prevents clinical strategies against the disease, creating an emerging need for the development of safe and effective treatments. Strategies for vaccine development include complete vaccines against viruses, subunits, and nucleic acids, but are still in their early stages. Studies carried out to date on possible SARS-CoV2 drug targets highlight glycoprotein S, Mpro (main protease or protease type 3C), and a member of the transmembrane serine protease II families (TMPRSS2). However, due to the pandemic state, priority is given to marketed drugs. These include chloroquine (CQ), hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), nitazoxanide, remdesivir, Lopinavir/ritonavir (LPV / r), in addition to treatment with convalescent plasma. But, therapeutic specific effects against SARS-CoV2 have not yet been verified. Most of the information obtained about treatment is based on preliminary and limited studies. We conclude that, at this time of emergency, the search for new therapies is more urgent due to the need to save lives. Thus, we point out as interesting targets for future more specific research: glycoprotein S, Mpro, and TMPRSS2.

scholarly journals A model for survival rate projection of Covid19 patients

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Devika P. Madalli ◽  
Sagar Bhimrao Gajbe ◽  
Gopalji ◽  
Akhilesh Ajith Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Survival Rate ◽  
Error Rate ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Active Infection ◽  
Learning Module ◽  
The World ◽  
Projection Error ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Abstract The novel coronavirus has been declared a worldwide pandemic. The pandemic has unleashed health as well as economic devastation across the world. In view of this, various governments, researchers and agencies are trying to work towards solutions to control the spread of the virus. There are many studies that have been initiated that consider the various parameters that contribute to the spread of the virus. We present a model to predict the survival rate of Covid19 infected patients. The study takes into consideration death rate (normal) and Covid infection death rate in India. Other factors considered are the number of infections and active infection numbers. We also incorporate a ‘learning module’ to learn from the observed error rate. We compute the moving average of error which is then deployed to minimise projection error in the model. The factor obtained from the learning is deployed into the survival rate computation to achieve best results.

scholarly journals An exploratory Integrated Moving Average Time Series Model of the initial outbreak of COVID-19 in six (6) significantly impacted Countries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Pascarella ◽  
Elaina Pascarella
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Rna Virus ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Government Officials ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
New Model ◽  
Public Health Officials ◽  
Preliminary Research ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Peak Increase

The 2019 Novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) is a single-stranded RNA virus that has threatened the lives of humans all over the globe. Government officials, policy makers and public health officials have been scrambling and struggling to flatten the curve to decelerate the prevalence and spread of COVID-19 given the significant economic destruction of the spread of the virus. Most flatten the curve models are based on Compartmental Models. This preliminary research is based on six (6) selected countries significantly impacted by COVID-19 and endeavors to build a new model based on moving averages lagged at different time periods to better hone in on the time the COVID-19 begins to decelerate using the date of first reported case and date of first reported death. This new model, the Consistent Deceleration Model (CDM) is based on each individual countrys date of Peak Increase in Mortality Rate (PINC MR) and the Moving Average since the peak increase in mortality rate (MA POSTINC). The CDM can be utilized of one of many quantitative tools to determine the strength of the deceleration of an infectious outbreak.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document