scholarly journals The importance of saturating density dependence for predicting SARS-CoV-2 resurgence

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily Nightingale ◽  
Oliver J Brady ◽  
Laith Yakob ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Age Distribution ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Minority Population ◽  
Ethnic Minority Population ◽  
Improve Model ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Show Evidence ◽  
Model Structures

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) associated mortality data from England show evidence for an increasing trend with population density until a saturating level, after adjusting for local age distribution, deprivation, proportion of ethnic minority population and proportion of key workers among the working population. Projections from a mathematical model that accounts for this observation deviate markedly from the current status quo for SARS-CoV-2 models which either assume linearity between density and transmission (30% of models) or no relationship at all (70%). Respectively, these standard model structures over- and under-estimate the delay in infection resurgence following the release of lockdown. Identifying saturation points for given populations and including transmission terms that account for this feature will improve model accuracy and utility for the current and future pandemics.

scholarly journals The importance of saturating density dependence for population-level predictions of SARS-CoV-2 resurgence compared with density-independent or linearly density-dependent models, England, 23 March to 31 July 2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (49) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily S Nightingale ◽  
Oliver J Brady ◽  
Laith Yakob ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Classical Model ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Minority Population ◽  
Density Dependent ◽  
Functional Forms

Background Population-level mathematical models of outbreaks typically assume that disease transmission is not impacted by population density (‘frequency-dependent’) or that it increases linearly with density (‘density-dependent’). Aim We sought evidence for the role of population density in SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Methods Using COVID-19-associated mortality data from England, we fitted multiple functional forms linking density with transmission. We projected forwards beyond lockdown to ascertain the consequences of different functional forms on infection resurgence. Results COVID-19-associated mortality data from England show evidence of increasing with population density until a saturating level, after adjusting for local age distribution, deprivation, proportion of ethnic minority population and proportion of key workers among the working population. Projections from a mathematical model that accounts for this observation deviate markedly from the current status quo for SARS-CoV-2 models which either assume linearity between density and transmission (30% of models) or no relationship at all (70%). Respectively, these classical model structures over- and underestimate the delay in infection resurgence following the release of lockdown. Conclusion Identifying saturation points for given populations and including transmission terms that account for this feature will improve model accuracy and utility for the current and future pandemics.

scholarly journals “End the Dominance of the Uyghur Ethnic Group”: An Analysis of Beijing’s Population Optimization Strategy in Southern Xinjiang

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adrian Zenz
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Ethnic Minority ◽  
Natural Population ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Genocide Convention ◽  
Minority Population ◽  
Optimization Strategy ◽  
Security Threat ◽  
Ethnic Minority Population ◽  
Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region

Chinese academics and politicians in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region have argued that the region’s “terrorism” problem can only be solved by “optimizing” southern Xinjiang’s ethnic population structure. High Uyghur population concentrations are deemed a national security threat. “Optimizing” such concentrations is achieved by embedding substantial Han populations. Scenarios that do not overburden the region’s population carrying capacity entail drastic reductions in ethnic minority natural population growth. The intent to “optimize” the population serves as a basis to assess the intent to destroy an ethnic minority population in part, as outlined in the 1948 U.N. Genocide Convention. The “destruction in part” is assessed as the difference between projected natural population growth without substantial government interference, and reduced growth scenarios in line with population “optimization” requirements. Based on population projections conducted by Chinese researchers, this difference could range between 2.6 and 4.5 million persons by the year 2040.

scholarly journals Biochemical abnormalities in COVID-19: a comparison of white versus ethnic minority populations in the UK

2021 ◽  
pp. jclinpath-2021-207446
Author(s):  
David R Taylor ◽  
Devon Buchanan ◽  
Wiaam Al-Hasani ◽  
Jessica Kearney ◽  
Tina Mazaheri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care ◽  
Ethnic Minority ◽  
Ethnic Minorities ◽  
Troponin T ◽  
Minority Group ◽  
Patient Data ◽  
Minority Population ◽  
Gamma Glutamyl Transferase ◽  
Ethnic Minority Population ◽  
Glutamyl Transferase

AimsPublic Health England has identified that in COVID-19, death rates among ethnic minorities far exceeds that of the white population. While the increase in ethnic minorities is likely to be multifactorial, to date, no studies have looked to see whether values for routine clinical biochemistry parameters differ between ethnic minority and white individuals.MethodsBaseline biochemical data for 22 common tests from 311 SARS-CoV-2 positive patients presenting to hospital in April 2020 in whom ethnicity data were available was retrospectively collected and evaluated. Data comparisons between ethnic minority and white groups were made for all patient data and for the subset of patients subsequently admitted to intensive care.ResultsWhen all patient data were considered, the ethnic minority population had statistically significant higher concentrations of C reactive protein (CRP), aspartate aminotransferase and gamma-glutamyl transferase, while troponin T was higher in the white group. A greater proportion of ethnic minority patients were subsequently admitted to intensive care, but when the presenting biochemistry of this subset of patients was compared, no significant differences were observed between ethnic minority and white groups.ConclusionOur data show for the first time that routine biochemistry at hospital presentation in COVID-19 differs between ethnic minority and white groups. Among the markers identified, CRP was significantly higher in the ethnic minority group pointing towards an increased tendency for severe inflammation in this group.

scholarly journals The Role of Respiratory Infection in Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS)

2016 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
David T. Mage ◽  
Maria L. Latorre ◽  
Alejandro G. Jenik ◽  
E. Maria Donner
Keyword(s):  
Birth Order ◽  
Respiratory Infection ◽  
Live Birth ◽  
Sudden Infant Death Syndrome ◽  
Infant Death ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Sudden Infant Death ◽  
Physiological Model ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Sudden Infant

Abstract Introduction: The Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS) is not likely to be explained by a currently measureable presence in all cases and absence in controls, as otherwise it would have been solved already. Indeed, any proposed physiological model for SIDS causation must explain the constant mathematical and statistical properties of SIDS age and gender. We have shown previously that SIDS are characterized by a common 4-parameter lognormal age distribution sparing neonatal infants, by a nominal 50% male excess, and by a higher rate in winter than summer. We test now whether SIDS is closely related to a fulminating prodromal Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI) by a common increasing rate with the infants increasing Live Birth Order (LBO), all remaining the same, independent of the change in preferred sleeping positions of the infants, prone or supine. Methods: We use U.S. published infant mortality data from wonder.cdc.gov and other countries (Colombia, U.K., Europe, Australasia) to make comparisons between the two causes of death (ARI and SIDS) to evaluate how closely ARI resembles the characteristics of SIDS. Results: Gender: SIDS male excess 50%, ARI male excess 50%; Ages: SIDS 90% post-neonatal, ARI 96% post-neonatal; Seasonality: SIDS and ARI are higher in winter than summer; Live birth order: SIDS and ARI rates increase with increasing LBO with similar mathematical relationship. Conclusion: Our results show that all SIDS are very likely relatable to a single cause tied to a fulminating prodromal ARI in a physiologically anemic infant who is genetically (X-link recessive) susceptible to cerebral anoxia. An alternative cause of all SIDS death by a collection of subsets of different causes, such as brainstem-related respiratory abnormalities and cardiac QT abnormalities, is not supported because they cannot all have the same age-gender-seasonal-familial-distributions of SIDS, required by Cramér’s Theorem.

Correlated gamma frailty models for bivariate survival time data

2018 ◽  
Vol 28 (10-11) ◽  
pp. 3437-3450
Author(s):  
Adelino Martins ◽  
Marc Aerts ◽  
Niel Hens ◽  
Andreas Wienke ◽  
Steven Abrams
Keyword(s):  
Survival Time ◽  
Frailty Models ◽  
Current Status Data ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Additive Decomposition ◽  
Bivariate Survival ◽  
Gamma Frailty ◽  
Survival Time Data

Frailty models have been developed to quantify both heterogeneity as well as association in multivariate time-to-event data. In recent years, numerous shared and correlated frailty models have been proposed in the survival literature allowing for different association structures and frailty distributions. A bivariate correlated gamma frailty model with an additive decomposition of the frailty variables into a sum of independent gamma components was introduced before. Although this model has a very convenient closed-form representation for the bivariate survival function, the correlation among event- or subject-specific frailties is bounded above which becomes a severe limitation when the values of the two frailty variances differ substantially. In this article, we review existing correlated gamma frailty models and propose novel ones based on bivariate gamma frailty distributions. Such models are found to be useful for the analysis of bivariate survival time data regardless of the censoring type involved. The frailty methodology was applied to right-censored and left-truncated Danish twins mortality data and serological survey current status data on varicella zoster virus and parvovirus B19 infections in Belgium. From our analyses, it has been shown that fitting more flexible correlated gamma frailty models in terms of the imposed association and correlation structure outperforms existing frailty models including the one with an additive decomposition.

scholarly journals COVID-19 health inequities and association with mechanical ventilation and prolonged length of stay at an urban safety-net health system in Chicago

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (10) ◽  
pp. e0258243
Author(s):  
Jacquelyn Jacobs ◽  
Amy K. Johnson ◽  
Arianna Boshara ◽  
Bijou Hunt ◽  
Christina Khouri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease ◽  
Mechanical Ventilation ◽  
Length Of Stay ◽  
Pulmonary Disease ◽  
Safety Net ◽  
Chronic Obstructive ◽  
Minority Population ◽  
Obstructive Pulmonary Disease ◽  
Ethnic Minority Population ◽  
Prolonged Length

Millions of Americans have been infected with COVID-19 and communities of color have been disproportionately burdened. We investigated the relationship between demographic characteristics and COVID-19 positivity, and comorbidities and severe COVID-19 illness (use of mechanical ventilation and length of stay) within a racial/ethnic minority population. Patients tested for COVID-19 between March 2020 and January 2021 (N = 14171) were 49.9% (n = 7072) female; 50.1% (n = 7104) non-Hispanic Black; 33.2% (n = 4698) Hispanic; and 23.6% (n = 3348) aged 65+. Overall COVID-19 positivity was 16.1% (n = 2286). Compared to females, males were 1.1 times more likely to test positive (p = 0.014). Compared to non-Hispanic Whites, non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic persons were 1.4 (p = 0.003) and 2.4 (p<0.001) times more likely, respectively, to test positive. Compared to persons ages 18–24, the odds of testing positive were statistically significantly higher for every age group except 25–34, and those aged 65+ were 2.8 times more likely to test positive (p<0.001). Adjusted for race, sex, and age, COVID-positive patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were 1.9 times more likely to require a ventilator compared to those without chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (p = 0.001). Length of stay was not statistically significantly associated with any of the comorbidity variables. Our findings emphasize the importance of documenting COVID-19 disparities in marginalized populations.

scholarly journals THE CHANGING TREND OF MORTALITY CAUSED BY GASTROINTESTINAL CANCERS IN IRAN DURING THE YEARS 2006-2010

2018 ◽  
Vol 55 (3) ◽  
pp. 237-241 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatemeh SALEHI ◽  
Ali AHMADI ◽  
Seyede Soghra AHMADI SOODEJANI ◽  
Milad SHAHINI SHAMS ABADI
Keyword(s):  
Causes Of Death ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Gastrointestinal Cancers ◽  
Mortality Trend ◽  
Pancreatic Cancers ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
High Incidence ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Changing Trend

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: Cancers are one of the most important causes of death in the world. According to their high incidence and mortality, gastrointestinal cancers have particular importance among other cancers. OBJECTIVE: Therefore, this study was conducted to investigate the mortality change trends of gastrointestinal cancers in Iran. METHODS: This study was performed by analyzing the reported mortality data in 29 provinces of Iran in 2006-2010. Mortality trend of gastrointestinal cancers was drawn for both sexes in the study years and disaggregated by age groups and their frequency distribution. The WinPepi software was used for analysis. RESULTS: In the years 2006-2010, the mortality rate of, gastric, colorectal, liver and pancreatic cancers, has significantly increased. Totally, gastrointestinal mortality is higher in men than women. Also, the results showed that by increasing age, death from these cancers also increased. CONCLUSION: The most important causes of death from gastrointestinal cancers were gastric, liver and colorectal cancers in Iran and because of their increasing trend in the country, performing preventive interventions for the cancers’ risk factors is necessary.

ACUTE PANCREATITIS IN PATIENTS WITH SEVERE HYPERTRIGLYCERIDEMIA IN A MULTI-ETHNIC MINORITY POPULATION

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (5) ◽  
pp. 429-436 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ambika Amblee ◽  
Divyanshu Mohananey ◽  
Micheal Morkos ◽  
Sanjib Basu ◽  
Ayokunle T. Abegunde ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Acute Pancreatitis ◽  
Ethnic Minority ◽  
Minority Population ◽  
Ethnic Minority Population ◽  
Severe Hypertriglyceridemia

scholarly journals Trends in Avoidable Mortality in Lithuania During 2001–2008 and Their Impact on Life Expectancy

Medicina ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 47 (9) ◽  
pp. 504 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vilius Grabauskas ◽  
Aldona Gaižauskienė ◽  
Skirmantė Sauliūnė ◽  
Rasa Mišeikytė
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Avoidable Mortality ◽  
Average Life Expectancy ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Causes Of Deaths ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
The Impact

The process of the restructuring of health care system in Lithuania demonstrates the need to continue the monitoring of changes in avoidable mortality. Objective. To assess the level of avoidable mortality as well as its changes over time in Lithuania during 2001–2008 and to define the impact of avoidable mortality on life expectancy. Material and Methods. The mortality data were taken from the Lithuanian Department of Statistics. Twelve avoidable causes of deaths (treatable and preventable) were analyzed. Mortality trends were assessed by computing the average annual percent change (AAPC). The shortening of average life expectancy was computed from survival tables. Results. During the period 2001–2008, the avoidable mortality was increasing more significantly (AAPC 3.0%, P<0.05) than the overall mortality (AAPC 1.7%, P<0.05) in the population aged 5–64 years. The increasing trend was mainly determined by mortality from preventable diseases (AAPC 4.6%, P<0.05). The avoidable causes of death reduced the life expectancy by 1.77 years (preventable by 1.12 and treatable by 0.63 years). Diversity in trends in mortality of different avoidable causes was disclosed. A declining trend in mortality caused by chronic rheumatic heart disease and lung cancer was observed for males (AAPC –22.6% and –2.1%, respectively; P<0.05). However, the mortality caused by liver cirrhosis was increasing for both genders (AAPC 16.1% for males and 17.6% for females, P<0.01) and that caused by tuberculosis – only for females (AAPC 7.8%, P<0.05). Conclusions. An increasing trend in avoidable mortality was observed. Deaths caused by the diseases that could have been prevented had the greatest impact on the increasing mortality and decreasing life expectancy.

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