Evolution of thermal physiology alters predicted species distributions under climate change
Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely adopted to predict range shifts but can be unreliable under climate change scenarios1 because they do not account for evolution. The thermal physiology of a species is a key determinant of range2,3 but the impact of thermal trait evolution on SDMs has not been addressed. We identified a genetic basis for physiological traits that evolve in response to temperature change in threespine stickleback. Using these data, we created geographic range projections under two climate change scenarios where trait data was either static (‘no evolution’ model), allowed to evolve in agreement with published evolutionary rates for the trait (‘evolution’ model)4, or allowed to evolve with the rate of evolution scaled in association with the variance that is explained by QTL (‘PVE’ model). Here, we show that incorporating these traits and their evolution into SDMs substantially altered the predicted ranges for a widespread panmictic marine population, with increases in area of over 7-fold. Evolution-informed SDMs should therefore improve the precision of forecasting range dynamics under climate change, thereby aiding in their application to management and the protection of biodiversity5-7.