scholarly journals Regional opening strategies with commuter testing and containment of new SARS-CoV-2 variants

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin J Kuehn ◽  
Daniel Abele ◽  
Sebastian Binder ◽  
Kathrin Rack ◽  
Margrit Klitz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Type Model ◽  
Virus Dynamics ◽  
Intervention Implementation ◽  
Economic Interests ◽  
Testing Strategies ◽  
Infection Dynamics ◽  
Novel Variants ◽  
Control Virus ◽  
Private And Public ◽  
Minimum Delay

Background: Despite the accelerating vaccination process, a large majority of the population is still susceptible to SARS-CoV-2. In addition, we face the spread of novel variants. Until we overcome the pandemic, reasonable mitigation and opening strategies are crucial to balance public health and economic interests. Methods: We model the spread of SARS-CoV-2 over the German counties by a graph-SIR-type model with particular focus on commuter testing. We account for political interventions by varying contact reduction values in private and public locations such as homes, schools, workplaces, and other. We consider different levels of lockdown strictness, commuter testing strategies, or the delay of intervention implementation. We conduct numerical simulations to assess the effectiveness of the different intervention strategies after one month. The virus dynamics in the counties are initialized randomly with incidences between 75-150 weekly new cases per 100,000 inhabitants (red zones) or below 10 (green zones) and consider 25 different initial scenarios of randomly distributed red zones (between 2 and 20 % of all counties). To account for uncertainty, we consider an ensemble set of 500 Monte Carlo runs for each scenario. Results: We find that the strength of the lockdown in regions with out of control virus dynamics is most important to avoid the spread into neighboring regions. With very strict lockdowns in red zones, commuter testing rates of twice a week can substantially contribute to the safety of adjacent regions. In contrast, less strict lockdowns with the same commuter testing rate quickly and substantially lead to overall higher infection dynamics. A further key contributor is the potential delay of the intervention implementation. In order to keep the spread of the virus under control, strict regional lockdowns with minimum delay and commuter testing of at least twice a week are advisable.

scholarly journals Phylogenomic Evidence of Reinfection and Persistence of SARS-CoV-2: First Report from Colombia

Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 282
Author(s):  
Juan David Ramírez ◽  
Marina Muñoz ◽  
Nathalia Ballesteros ◽  
Luz H. Patiño ◽  
Sergio Castañeda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Viral Persistence ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Polymorphism Analysis ◽  
Rt Pcr ◽  
Paired Samples ◽  
Infection Dynamics ◽  
Oxford Nanopore ◽  
Novel Variants ◽  
First Time ◽  
Oxford Nanopore Technologies

The continuing evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and the emergence of novel variants have raised concerns about possible reinfection events and potential changes in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission dynamics. Utilizing Oxford Nanopore technologies, we sequenced paired samples of three patients with positive RT-PCR results in a 1–2-month window period, and subsequent phylogenetics and genetic polymorphism analysis of these genomes was performed. Herein, we report, for the first time, genomic evidence of one case of reinfection in Colombia, exhibiting different SARS-CoV-2 lineage classifications between samples (B.1 and B.1.1.269). Furthermore, we report two cases of possible viral persistence, highlighting the importance of deepening our understanding on the evolutionary intra-host traits of this virus throughout different timeframes of disease progression. These results emphasize the relevance of genomic surveillance as a tool for understanding SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics, and how this may translate effectively to future control and mitigations efforts, such as the national vaccination program.

scholarly journals Controlling SARS-CoV-2 in schools using repetitive testing strategies

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Torneri ◽  
Lander Willem ◽  
Vittoria Colizza ◽  
Cecile Kremer ◽  
Christelle Meuris ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Primary School ◽  
School Environment ◽  
Attack Rate ◽  
Time Intervals ◽  
Testing Strategies ◽  
Infection Dynamics ◽  
Regular Time ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Modelling Approach

SARS-CoV-2 remains a worldwide emergency. While vaccines have been approved and are widely administered, these are only available to adults and adolescents in Europe. Therefore, in order to mitigate the spread of more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants among children, the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions is still warranted. We investigate the impact of different testing strategies on the SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics in a primary school environment, using an individual-based modelling approach. Specifically, we consider three testing strategies: 1) symptomatic isolation, where we test symptomatic individuals and isolate them when they test positive, 2) reactive screening, where a class is screened once one symptomatic individual was identified, and 3) repetitive screening, where the school in its entirety is screened on regular time intervals. Through this analysis, we demonstrate that repetitive testing strategies can significantly reduce the attack rate in schools, contrary to a reactive screening approach. Furthermore, we investigate the impact of these testing strategies on the average number of school days lost per child.

scholarly journals Implementation of ecological audit in the enterprises activities for the benefit of the environment

2019 ◽  
Vol 91 ◽  
pp. 08051 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena Vasilyeva ◽  
Angela Mottaeva
Keyword(s):  
International Cooperation ◽  
State Policy ◽  
Environmental Problems ◽  
Public Organizations ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
The State ◽  
Economic Interests ◽  
Private And Public ◽  
Economic Tools ◽  
The Impact

The author believes that the problems connected with the impact on the environment are very relevant, including the matters of the assessment of damage caused to it and the matters of the assessment of risk from this damage for the users of nature, as well as for the state institutes, which are carrying out control, for private and public organizations. The current situation in Russia is characterized by the need of introduction of new ecologic-and-economic concepts, such as ecological audit and revision of the role and value of old economic tools in the state policy. The scheme of ecological audit, its main directions in Russia at the level of the enterprise, regions and the country in general as well as within the international cooperation are considered in the article. At the same time, some problems connected with legislation shortcomings exist. Besides, the author emphasizes the inadmissibility to solve the environmental problems at the expense of detriment of economic interests, the need of balanced and reasonable decisions.

scholarly journals PRAKTIK INTERNASIONALISASI MEDIA BERITASATU MEDIA HOLDINGS

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anis Endang SM
Keyword(s):  
Political Economy ◽  
Spatial Distance ◽  
Group Company ◽  
Economic Interests ◽  
Business Economics ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Media Distribution ◽  
Private And Public ◽  
The Media ◽  
Media Industrialization

This study aimed to determine the practice of internationalization carried out by BeritaSatu Media Holdings in supporting global economic interests of Lippo Group Company. Internationalization is an implication of media industrialization which the media company owner sought to reduce the spatial distance to obtain greater profits. Theory of Political Economy Media used to see how media content represents the interests of certain political economy, especially from media owners. To view the practice of internationalization, the concept of spatialization was used. The analysis showed that the practice of internationalization was done by BeritaSatu Media Holdings visible from nine of thirteen brand-owned media were in English, the media focused on business economics and finance or the life of the upper class, BeritaSatu Media Holdings’ media distribution limited in cosmopolitan areas, some media published in Indonesia (The Straits Times, ThePeak) had editions in other countries, such as Malaysia, Singapore, and Hong Kong. Of this trend was seen that the reader of BeritaSatu Media Holdings was segmented to the expatriate community and executives. The expatriate community and executives were capital market investors and financial markets, or the part of policy makers in the field of economy both in the private and public sectors who have the power or role for the current financial turnaround either within the scope of national, regional, and multinational.

scholarly journals Linking Light-Dependent Life History Traits with Population Dynamics for Prochlorococcus and Cyanophage

mSystems ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
David Demory ◽  
Riyue Liu ◽  
Yue Chen ◽  
Fangxin Zhao ◽  
Ashley R. Coenen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Life History ◽  
Population Model ◽  
Life History Traits ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Virus Dynamics ◽  
Virus Population ◽  
Infection Dynamics ◽  
Population Scale ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACT Prochlorococcus cyanobacteria grow in diurnal rhythms driven by diel cycles. Their ecology depends on light, nutrients, and top-down mortality processes, including lysis by viruses. Cyanophage, viruses that infect cyanobacteria, are also impacted by light. For example, the extracellular viability and intracellular infection kinetics of some cyanophage vary between light and dark conditions. Nonetheless, it remains unclear whether light-dependent viral life history traits scale up to influence population-level dynamics. Here, we examined the impact of diel forcing on both cellular- and population-scale dynamics in multiple Prochlorococcus-phage systems. To do so, we developed a light-driven population model, including both cellular growth and viral infection dynamics. We then tested the model against measurements of experimental infection dynamics with diel forcing to examine the extent to which population level changes in both viral and host abundances could be explained by light-dependent life history traits. Model-data integration reveals that light-dependent adsorption can improve fits to population dynamics for some virus-host pairs. However, light-dependent variation alone does not fully explain realized host and virus population dynamics. Instead, we show evidence consistent with lysis saturation at relatively high virus-to-cell ratios. Altogether, our study represents a quantitative approach to integrate mechanistic models to reconcile Prochlorococcus-virus dynamics spanning cellular-to-population scales. IMPORTANCE The cyanobacterium Prochlorococcus is an essential member of global ocean ecosystems. Light rhythms drive Prochlorococcus photosynthesis, ecology, and interactions with potentially lethal viruses. At present, the impact of light on Prochlorococcus-virus interactions is not well understood. Here, we analyzed Prochlorococcus and virus population dynamics with a light-driven population model and compared our results with experimental data. Our approach revealed that light profoundly drives both cellular- and population-level dynamics for some host-virus systems. However, we also found that additional mechanisms, including lysis saturation, are required to explain observed host-virus dynamics at the population scale. This study provides the basis for future work to understand the intertwined fates of Prochlorococcus and associated viruses in the surface ocean.

scholarly journals Viral Infection Dynamics Model Based on a Markov Process with Time Delay between Cell Infection and Progeny Production

Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 1207 ◽  
Author(s):  
Igor Sazonov ◽  
Dmitry Grebennikov ◽  
Mark Kelbert ◽  
Andreas Meyerhans ◽  
Gennady Bocharov
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Characteristics ◽  
Virus Dynamics ◽  
Large Species ◽  
Virus Infections ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Cell Infection ◽  
Human Virus ◽  
Infection Dynamics ◽  
A Cell ◽  
Model Components

Many human virus infections including those with the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV) are initiated by low numbers of founder viruses. Therefore, random effects have a strong influence on the initial infection dynamics, e.g., extinction versus spread. In this study, we considered the simplest (so-called, ‘consensus’) virus dynamics model and incorporated a delay between infection of a cell and virus progeny release from the infected cell. We then developed an equivalent stochastic virus dynamics model that accounts for this delay in the description of the random interactions between the model components. The new model is used to study the statistical characteristics of virus and target cell populations. It predicts the probability of infection spread as a function of the number of transmitted viruses. A hybrid algorithm is suggested to compute efficiently the system dynamics in state space domain characterized by the mix of small and large species densities.

An Alternative to Self-Reports of Trait and State Affect

2014 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 231-237 ◽  
Author(s):  
Markus Quirin ◽  
Regina C. Bode
Keyword(s):  
Self Report ◽  
Factorial Validity ◽  
Artificial Language ◽  
Cognitive Representation ◽  
Affective States ◽  
Novel Variants ◽  
Self Reports ◽  
State Affect ◽  
Affective Experiences ◽  
Automatic Activation

Self-report measures for the assessment of trait or state affect are typically biased by social desirability or self-delusion. The present work provides an overview of research using a recently developed measure of automatic activation of cognitive representation of affective experiences, the Implicit Positive and Negative Affect Test (IPANAT). In the IPANAT, participants judge the extent to which nonsense words from an alleged artificial language express a number of affective states or traits. The test demonstrates appropriate factorial validity and reliabilities. We review findings that support criterion validity and, additionally, present novel variants of this procedure for the assessment of the discrete emotions such as happiness, anger, sadness, and fear.

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