scholarly journals Synthesising the multiple impacts of climatic variability on community responses to climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Christopher D. Terry ◽  
Jacob D. O’Sullivan ◽  
Axel G. Rossberg
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Variability ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Biotic Interactions ◽  
Range Shift ◽  
Multiple Impacts ◽  
Biotic Community ◽  
Data Accessibility ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Shift Dynamics

AbstractRecent developments in understanding and predicting species responses to climate change have emphasised the importance of both environmental variability and consideration of the wider biotic community. To date, the interaction between the two has received less attention. However, considerable bodies of theory and empirical results suggest that multi-species consequences of variability can have strong impacts on range limits and the speed of range shifts. Here we demonstrate how biotic interactions and temporal variability can act together to influence range shift dynamics and highlight the need to understand these interactions in order to predict how species will respond to global change. We emphasise the value and utility of partitioning approaches applied to parameterised models to determine the direction and relative importance and direct of these forces in empirical systems.AuthorshipJCDT wrote the manuscript and built the models. All authors contributed significantly to the editing and manuscript development.FundingThe work was supported by NERC grant NE/T003510/1Data Sharing and Data AccessibilityCode to generate all results is publicly available at https://github.com/jcdterry/ClimateVar_BioticInts and should the manuscript be accepted will be permanently archived. The paper contains no new datasets.

Novel trophic interactions under climate change promote alpine plant coexistence

Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 370 (6523) ◽  
pp. 1469-1473
Author(s):  
Patrice Descombes ◽  
Camille Pitteloud ◽  
Gaëtan Glauser ◽  
Emmanuel Defossez ◽  
Alan Kergunteuil ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Plant Species ◽  
Functional Organization ◽  
Biotic Interactions ◽  
Range Shift ◽  
Effect Of Temperature ◽  
Alpine Plant ◽  
Elevation Gradients ◽  
Ecological Equilibrium ◽  
Plant Coexistence

Herbivory and plant defenses exhibit a coupled decline along elevation gradients. However, the current ecological equilibrium could be disrupted under climate change, with a faster upward range shift of animals than plants. Here, we experimentally simulated this upward herbivore range shift by translocating low-elevation herbivore insects to alpine grasslands. We report that the introduction of novel herbivores and increased herbivory disrupted the vertical functional organization of the plant canopy. By feeding preferentially on alpine plants with functional traits matching their low-elevation host plants, herbivores reduced the biomass of dominant alpine plant species and favored encroachment of herbivore-resistant small-stature plant species, inflating species richness. Supplementing a direct effect of temperature, novel biotic interactions represent a neglected but major driver of ecosystem modifications under climate change.

Ecology of Climate Change

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Post
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Late Pleistocene ◽  
Stability Theory ◽  
Species Interactions ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Biotic Interactions ◽  
Biological Organization ◽  
Ecological Responses ◽  
Primary Driver

Rising temperatures are affecting organisms in all of Earth's biomes, but the complexity of ecological responses to climate change has hampered the development of a conceptually unified treatment of them. In a remarkably comprehensive synthesis, this book presents past, ongoing, and future ecological responses to climate change in the context of two simplifying hypotheses, facilitation and interference, arguing that biotic interactions may be the primary driver of ecological responses to climate change across all levels of biological organization. The author's synthesis and analyses of ecological consequences of climate change extend from the Late Pleistocene to the present, and through the next century of projected warming. The book's investigation is grounded in classic themes of enduring interest in ecology, but developed around novel conceptual and mathematical models of observed and predicted dynamics. Using stability theory as a recurring theme, the book argues that the magnitude of climatic variability may be just as important as the magnitude and direction of change in determining whether populations, communities, and species persist. It urges a more refined consideration of species interactions, emphasizing important distinctions between lateral and vertical interactions and their disparate roles in shaping responses of populations, communities, and ecosystems to climate change.

scholarly journals Climate variability and drought modulate the role of structural refuges for arthropods: a global experiment

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gustavo Romero ◽  
Thiago Gonçalves-Souza ◽  
Tomas Roslin ◽  
Robert Marquis ◽  
Nicholas Marino ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Latitudinal Gradient ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Biotic Interactions ◽  
Predator Diversity ◽  
Terrestrial Arthropods ◽  
Geographic Regions ◽  
The Impact

Current climate change is disrupting biotic interactions and eroding biodiversity worldwide. However, species sensitive to drought, high temperatures and climate variability might persist in microclimatic refuges, such as leaf shelters built by arthropods. We conducted a distributed experiment across an 11,790 km latitudinal gradient to explore how the importance of leaf shelters for terrestrial arthropods changes with latitude, elevation and underlying climate. Our analyses revealed leaf shelters to be key facilitative elements for the diversity of arthropods. Predator diversity and overall biomass within shelters increased with local drought and temperature variability, regardless of latitude and elevation. In contrast, shelter usage by herbivores increased with abundance of predators on those same plants and in wetter climates. Projected increase in climatic variability and drought in certain geographic regions is therefore likely to enhance the importance of biotic refuges, especially for predators, in mitigating the impact of climate change on species persistence.

scholarly journals Environmental variability during the last three millennia in the rain shadows of central Mexico

2021 ◽  
Vol 73 (1) ◽  
pp. A171220
Author(s):  
Gustavo Olivares-Casillas ◽  
Alex Correa-Metrio ◽  
Edyta Zawisza ◽  
Marta Wojewódka-Przybył ◽  
Maarten Blaauw ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
El Niño ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Environmental Variability ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Ice Age

The last three millennia have been characterized by global temperature oscillations of around one Celsius degree, and high frequency variability on precipitation. Two main temperature anomalies have been reported worldwide, the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA), characterized by higher and lower than average temperatures, respectively. Precipitation variability has been mostly associated with El Niño anomalies in the Equatorial Pacific. These global variability modes have been modulated by regional factors such as sea surface temperatures and their interaction with continental landmasses. Understanding regional responses to these anomalies would shed light on ecosystem response to environmental variability, a paramount tool for conservation purposes on the light of modern climate change. Here we present a 3,000-year sedimentary record from Lake Metztitlán, located in a Biosphere Reserve under the rain shadow of the Sierra Madre Oriental. Cladoceran and geochemical analyses were used to reconstruct lacustrine dynamics through the time period encompassed by the record. Our record points to highly dynamic lacustrine systems, coupled with global and regional climatic variability. In Metztitlán, the MWP was associated with low lake levels and a high torrentiality of the precipitation reflected in high-frequency peaks of detrital material. The LIA was associated with an enlarged water body, probably as a result of lower evapotranspiration. Overall, global climatic variability resulted in high variability of regional precipitation and detrital input in the Metztitlán region, in turn associated with changes in lake morphometry and depth. Our record highlights the vulnerability of the area to changes in sea surface temperature of the Gulf of Mexico, and to changes in the frequency of El Niño events. Although the effects of global climate change in the region are inescapable, our results emphasize the importance of controlling anthropogenic activities as an additional source of pressure on the regional ecosystems.

scholarly journals Competition and facilitation may lead to asymmetric range shift dynamics with climate change

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (9) ◽  
pp. 3921-3933 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ailene Ettinger ◽  
Janneke HilleRisLambers
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Range Shift ◽  
Shift Dynamics

scholarly journals What evidence exists on the impacts of flow variability on fish and macroinvertebrates of temperate floodplain rivers in Central and Western Europe? A systematic map protocol

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Agata Keller ◽  
Somsubhra Chattopadhyay ◽  
Mikołaj Piniewski
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Grey Literature ◽  
Habitat Type ◽  
Water Diversion ◽  
Systematic Map ◽  
Eligibility Criteria ◽  
Flow Variability ◽  
Floodplain Rivers

Abstract Background Flow variability is considered a fundamental factor affecting riverine biota. Any alterations to flow regime can influence freshwater organisms, and this process is expected to change with the projected climate change. This systematic map, therefore, aims at investigating the impacts of natural (resulting from climatic variability), anthropogenic (resulting from direct human pressure), and climate change-induced flow variability on fish and macroinvertebrates of temperate floodplain rivers in Central and Western Europe. Particular focus will be placed on the effects of extreme low and high discharges. These rare events are known to regulate population size and taxonomic diversity. Methods All studies investigating the effects of flow variability on metrics concerning freshwater fish and macroinvertebrates will be considered in the map, particularly metrics such as: abundance, density, diversity, growth, migration, recruitment, reproduction, survival, or their substitutes, such as biomonitoring indices. Relevant flow variability will reflect (1) anthropogenic causes: dams, reservoirs, hydroelectric facilities, locks, levees, water abstraction, water diversion, land-use changes, road culverts; (2) natural causes: floods, droughts, seasonal changes; or (3) climate change. Geographically, the map will cover the ecoregion of Central and Western Europe, focusing on its major habitat type, namely “temperate floodplain rivers and wetlands”. The review will employ search engines and specialist websites, and cover primary and grey literature. No date, language, or document type restrictions will be applied in the search strategy. We expect the results to be primarily in English, although evidence (meeting all eligibility criteria) from other languages within the study area will also be included. We will also contact relevant stakeholders and announce an open call for additional information. Eligibility screening will be conducted at two levels: title and abstract, and full text. From eligible studies the following information will be extracted: the cause of flow variability, location, type of study, outcomes, etc. A searchable database containing extracted data will be developed and provided as supplementary material to the map report. The final narrative will describe the quantity and key characteristics of the available evidence, and identify knowledge gaps and knowledge clusters, i.e. subtopics sufficiently covered by existing studies allowing full systematic review and meta-analysis.

scholarly journals Demographic effects of interacting species: exploring stable coexistence under increased climatic variability in a semiarid shrub community

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana I. García-Cervigón ◽  
Pedro F. Quintana-Ascencio ◽  
Adrián Escudero ◽  
Merari E. Ferrer-Cervantes ◽  
Ana M. Sánchez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Species Coexistence ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Demographic Data ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Biotic Interactions ◽  
Vital Rates ◽  
Climatic Fluctuations ◽  
Demographic Models ◽  
Shrub Community

AbstractPopulation persistence is strongly determined by climatic variability. Changes in the patterns of climatic events linked to global warming may alter population dynamics, but their effects may be strongly modulated by biotic interactions. Plant populations interact with each other in such a way that responses to climate of a single population may impact the dynamics of the whole community. In this study, we assess how climate variability affects persistence and coexistence of two dominant plant species in a semiarid shrub community on gypsum soils. We use 9 years of demographic data to parameterize demographic models and to simulate population dynamics under different climatic and ecological scenarios. We observe that populations of both coexisting species may respond to common climatic fluctuations both similarly and in idiosyncratic ways, depending on the yearly combination of climatic factors. Biotic interactions (both within and among species) modulate some of their vital rates, but their effects on population dynamics highly depend on climatic fluctuations. Our results indicate that increased levels of climatic variability may alter interspecific relationships. These alterations might potentially affect species coexistence, disrupting competitive hierarchies and ultimately leading to abrupt changes in community composition.

scholarly journals Precipitation downscaling under climate change: Recent developments to bridge the gap between dynamical models and the end user

2010 ◽  
Vol 48 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Maraun ◽  
F. Wetterhall ◽  
A. M. Ireson ◽  
R. E. Chandler ◽  
E. J. Kendon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
End User ◽  
Dynamical Models ◽  
Recent Developments

scholarly journals An Orchid in Retrograde: Climate-Driven Range Shift Patterns of Ophrys helenae in Greece

Plants ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 470
Author(s):  
Martha Charitonidou ◽  
Konstantinos Kougioumoutzis ◽  
John M. Halley
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Range Shift ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
Distribution Modelling ◽  
Species Response ◽  
Northwestern Greece ◽  
The Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
The Last Glacial

Climate change is regarded as one of the most important threats to plants. Already species around the globe are showing considerable latitudinal and altitudinal shifts. Helen’s bee orchid (Ophrys helenae), a Balkan endemic with a distribution center in northwestern Greece, is reported to be expanding east and southwards. Since this southeastern movement goes against the usual expectations, we investigated via Species Distribution Modelling, whether this pattern is consistent with projections based on the species’ response to climate change. We predicted the species’ future distribution based on three different climate models in two climate scenarios. We also explored the species’ potential distribution during the Last Interglacial and the Last Glacial Maximum. O. helenae is projected to shift mainly southeast and experience considerable area changes. The species is expected to become extinct in the core of its current distribution, but to establish a strong presence in the mid- and high-altitude areas of the Central Peloponnese, a region that could have provided shelter in previous climatic extremes.

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