scholarly journals FOCUS: Forecasting COVID-19 in the United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
VP Nagraj ◽  
Stephanie L Guertin ◽  
Chris Hulme-Lowe ◽  
Stephen D Turner
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
United States ◽  
Health Planning ◽  
The United States ◽  
Disease Forecasting ◽  
Government Organizations ◽  
Public Health Planning ◽  
Automated Pipeline ◽  
Precision And Accuracy ◽  
Near Term

Infectious disease forecasting has been a useful tool for public health planning and messaging during the COVID-19 pandemic. In partnership with the CDC, the organizers of the COVID-19 Forecast Hub have created a mechanism for forecasters from academia, industry, and government organizations to submit weekly near-term predictions of COVID-19 targets in the United States. Here we describe our efforts to participate in the COVID-19 Forecast Hub through the Forecasting COVID-19 in the United States (FOCUS) project. The effort led to more than three months of weekly submissions and development of an automated pipeline to generate forecasts. The models used in FOCUS yielded forecasts that ranked relatively well in terms of precision and accuracy.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Deaths in the United States: Shifts in Hot Spots over the Three Phases of the Pandemic and the Spatiotemporally Varying Impact of Pandemic Vulnerability

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (17) ◽  
pp. 8987
Author(s):  
Yoo Min Park ◽  
Gregory D. Kearney ◽  
Bennett Wall ◽  
Katherine Jones ◽  
Robert J. Howard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
United States ◽  
Hot Spots ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Health Planning ◽  
The United States ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Spatiotemporal Trends ◽  
Three Phases

The geographic areas most impacted by COVID-19 may not remain static because public health measures/behaviors change dynamically, and the impacts of pandemic vulnerability also may vary geographically and temporally. The nature of the pandemic makes spatiotemporal methods essential to understanding the distribution of COVID-19 deaths and developing interventions. This study examines the spatiotemporal trends in COVID-19 death rates in the United States from March 2020 to May 2021 by performing an emerging hot spot analysis (EHSA). It then investigates the effects of the COVID-19 time-dependent and basic social vulnerability factors on COVID-19 death rates using geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR). The EHSA results demonstrate that over the three phases of the pandemic (first wave, second wave, and post-vaccine deployment), hot spots have shifted from densely populated cities and the states with a high percentage of socially vulnerable individuals to the states with relatively relaxed social distancing requirements, and then to the states with low vaccination rates. The GTWR results suggest that local infection and testing rates, social distancing interventions, and other social, environmental, and health risk factors show significant associations with COVID-19 death rates, but these associations vary over time and space. These findings can inform public health planning.

scholarly journals Projecting COVID-19 isolation bed requirements for people experiencing homelessness

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. e0251153
Author(s):  
Tanvi A. Ingle ◽  
Maike Morrison ◽  
Xutong Wang ◽  
Timothy Mercer ◽  
Vella Karman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
United States ◽  
Health Planning ◽  
General Rule ◽  
The United States ◽  
Municipal Governments ◽  
Acute Care Facilities ◽  
Isolation Facilities ◽  
The City ◽  
Risk Communities

As COVID-19 spreads across the United States, people experiencing homelessness (PEH) are among the most vulnerable to the virus. To mitigate transmission, municipal governments are procuring isolation facilities for PEH to utilize following possible exposure to the virus. Here we describe the framework for anticipating isolation bed demand in PEH communities that we developed to support public health planning in Austin, Texas during March 2020. Using a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission, we projected that, under no social distancing orders, a maximum of 299 (95% Confidence Interval: 223, 321) PEH may require isolation rooms in the same week. Based on these analyses, Austin Public Health finalized a lease agreement for 205 isolation rooms on March 27th 2020. As of October 7th 2020, a maximum of 130 rooms have been used on a single day, and a total of 602 PEH have used the facility. As a general rule of thumb, we expect the peak proportion of the PEH population that will require isolation to be roughly triple the projected peak daily incidence in the city. This framework can guide the provisioning of COVID-19 isolation and post-acute care facilities for high risk communities throughout the United States.

scholarly journals Geographic Differences in Cannabis Conversations on Twitter: Infodemiology Study

10.2196/18540 ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. e18540
Author(s):  
Jenna van Draanen ◽  
HaoDong Tao ◽  
Saksham Gupta ◽  
Sam Liu
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
United States ◽  
Latent Dirichlet Allocation ◽  
Legal Status ◽  
Health Planning ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Environments ◽  
Geographic Differences ◽  
Negative Sentiment ◽  
Recreational Use

Background Infodemiology is an emerging field of research that utilizes user-generated health-related content, such as that found in social media, to help improve public health. Twitter has become an important venue for studying emerging patterns in health issues such as substance use because it can reflect trends in real-time and display messages generated directly by users, giving a uniquely personal voice to analyses. Over the past year, several states in the United States have passed legislation to legalize adult recreational use of cannabis and the federal government in Canada has done the same. There are few studies that examine the sentiment and content of tweets about cannabis since the recent legislative changes regarding cannabis have occurred in North America. Objective To examine differences in the sentiment and content of cannabis-related tweets by state cannabis laws, and to examine differences in sentiment between the United States and Canada between 2017 and 2019. Methods In total, 1,200,127 cannabis-related tweets were collected from January 1, 2017, to June 17, 2019, using the Twitter application programming interface. Tweets then were grouped geographically based on cannabis legal status (legal for adult recreational use, legal for medical use, and no legal use) in the locations from which the tweets came. Sentiment scoring for the tweets was done with VADER (Valence Aware Dictionary and sEntiment Reasoner), and differences in sentiment for states with different cannabis laws were tested using Tukey adjusted two-sided pairwise comparisons. Topic analysis to determine the content of tweets was done using latent Dirichlet allocation in Python, using a Java implementation, LdaMallet, with Gensim wrapper. Results Significant differences were seen in tweet sentiment between US states with different cannabis laws (P=.001 for negative sentiment tweets in fully illegal compared to legal for adult recreational use states), as well as between the United States and Canada (P=.003 for positive sentiment and P=.001 for negative sentiment). In both cases, restrictive state policy environments (eg, those where cannabis use is fully illegal, or legal for medical use only) were associated with more negative tweet sentiment than less restrictive policy environments (eg, where cannabis is legal for adult recreational use). Six key topics were found in recent US tweet contents: fun and recreation (keywords, eg, love, life, high); daily life (today, start, live); transactions (buy, sell, money); places of use (room, car, house); medical use and cannabis industry (business, industry, company); and legalization (legalize, police, tax). The keywords representing content of tweets also differed between the United States and Canada. Conclusions Knowledge about how cannabis is being discussed online, and geographic differences that exist in these conversations may help to inform public health planning and prevention efforts. Public health education about how to use cannabis in ways that promote safety and minimize harms may be especially important in places where cannabis is legal for adult recreational and medical use.

Can increases in Twitter posts predict increases in cumulative incidence of COVID-19 in the United States? Evidence that social media can inform epidemic surveillance. (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruoyan Sun ◽  
Henna Budhwani
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
United States ◽  
Cumulative Incidence ◽  
Hot Spots ◽  
Adult Population ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Education Attainment ◽  
Public Health Systems ◽  
Per Capita

BACKGROUND Though public health systems are responding rapidly to the COVID-19 pandemic, outcomes from publicly available, crowd-sourced big data may assist in helping to identify hot spots, prioritize equipment allocation and staffing, while also informing health policy related to “shelter in place” and social distancing recommendations. OBJECTIVE To assess if the rising state-level prevalence of COVID-19 related posts on Twitter (tweets) is predictive of state-level cumulative COVID-19 incidence after controlling for socio-economic characteristics. METHODS We identified extracted COVID-19 related tweets from January 21st to March 7th (2020) across all 50 states (N = 7,427,057). Tweets were combined with state-level characteristics and confirmed COVID-19 cases to determine the association between public commentary and cumulative incidence. RESULTS The cumulative incidence of COVID-19 cases varied significantly across states. Ratio of tweet increase (p=0.03), number of physicians per 1,000 population (p=0.01), education attainment (p=0.006), income per capita (p = 0.002), and percentage of adult population (p=0.003) were positively associated with cumulative incidence. Ratio of tweet increase was significantly associated with the logarithmic of cumulative incidence (p=0.06) with a coefficient of 0.26. CONCLUSIONS An increase in the prevalence of state-level tweets was predictive of an increase in COVID-19 diagnoses, providing evidence that Twitter can be a valuable surveillance tool for public health.

Review of form 483s and warning letters to pharmaceutical manufacturers issued by USFDA

2021 ◽  
pp. 174113432110235
Author(s):  
Chandan Saini ◽  
Ashish Miglani ◽  
Pankaj Musyuni ◽  
Geeta Aggarwal
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
United States ◽  
Regulatory Authority ◽  
The United States ◽  
Federal Law ◽  
Pharmaceutical Manufacturers ◽  
The World ◽  
Considerable Impact ◽  
A Company ◽  
Responsible Person

Regular inspections are carried out to ensure system conformity by the Food and Drugs Regulatory Authority (FDA) of the United States one of the most stringent regulatory authorities in the world. The inspectors send Form 483 to the management after the inspection, detailing the inappropriate conditions. Because the FDA guidelines are difficult to comply with, a company can contravene the regulations. If any significant infringements can affect the protection, quality, effectiveness, or public health of the drug is identified, the FDA issues advice to the company. Warning Letters (WL) shall be an official notification of non-compliance with federal law within a period to be issued by manufacturer, clinician, distributor, or responsible person in the company. The delivery of a letter has a considerable impact on the company's reputation and position in the market. Inadequate WL reactions could lead to a refusal, import denial, memorandum or even conviction and order. A brief study was conducted in this document of Form 483 and WL for four years (2017–2020) on an understanding the regulatory provisions.

scholarly journals Challenges in evaluating the use of viral sequence data to identify HIV transmission networks for public health

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (s1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rami Kantor ◽  
John P. Fulton ◽  
Jon Steingrimsson ◽  
Vladimir Novitsky ◽  
Mark Howison ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
United States ◽  
Hiv Transmission ◽  
Sequence Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Viral Sequence ◽  
Transmission Networks ◽  
New Methods ◽  
Hiv Epidemic ◽  
The World

AbstractGreat efforts are devoted to end the HIV epidemic as it continues to have profound public health consequences in the United States and throughout the world, and new interventions and strategies are continuously needed. The use of HIV sequence data to infer transmission networks holds much promise to direct public heath interventions where they are most needed. As these new methods are being implemented, evaluating their benefits is essential. In this paper, we recognize challenges associated with such evaluation, and make the case that overcoming these challenges is key to the use of HIV sequence data in routine public health actions to disrupt HIV transmission networks.

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