scholarly journals Geospatial Variability in Excess Death Rates during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Mexico: Examining Socio Demographic and Population Health Characteristics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sushma Dahal ◽  
Ruiyan Luo ◽  
Monica H Swahn ◽  
Gerardo Chowell
Keyword(s):  
Population Health ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Health Indicators ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Household Size ◽  
P Value ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Excess Death ◽  
Average Household Size ◽  
Aging Index

Background: Mexico has suffered one of the highest COVID-19 mortality rates in the world. In this study we examined how socio-demographic and population health characteristics shape the geospatial variability in excess mortality patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico. Methods: Weekly all-cause mortality time series for all 32 Mexican states, from January 4, 2015 to April 10, 2021, were analyzed to estimate the excess mortality rates using Serfling regression models. The association between socio-demographic, health indicators and excess mortality rates were determined using multiple linear regression analyses. Finally, we used functional data analysis to characterize clusters of states with distinct mortality growth rate curves. Results: The overall all-cause excess deaths rate during the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico until April 10, 2021 was estimated at 39.66 per 10 000 population. The lowest excess death rates were observed in southeastern states including Chiapas (12.72), Oaxaca (13.42) and Quintana Roo (19.41) whereas Mexico City had the highest excess death rate (106.17), followed by Tlaxcala (51.99) and Morelos (45.90). We found a positive association of excess mortality rates with aging index (P value<.0001), marginalization index (P value<.0001), and average household size (P value=0.0003) in the final adjusted model (Model R2=76%). We identified four distinct clusters with qualitatively similar excess mortality curves. Conclusion: Central states exhibited the highest excess mortality rates whereas the distribution of aging index, marginalization index, and average household size explained the variability in excess mortality rates across Mexico. Our findings can help tailor interventions to mitigate the mortality impact of the pandemic.

scholarly journals EXCESS MORTALITY FROM COVID-19. WEEKLY EXCESS DEATH RATES BY AGE AND SEX FOR SWEDEN AND ITS MOST AFFECTED REGION

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karin Modig ◽  
Anders Ahlbom ◽  
Marcus Ebeling
Keyword(s):  
Causes Of Death ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
National Level ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Excess Death ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Specific Mortality ◽  
Age And Sex

Abstract Background Sweden has one of the highest numbers of COVID-19 deaths per inhabitant globally. However, absolute death counts can be misleading. Estimating age- and sex-specific mortality rates is necessary in order to account for the underlying population structure. Furthermore, given the difficulty of assigning causes of death, excess all-cause mortality should be estimated to assess the overall burden of the pandemic. Methods By estimating weekly age- and sex-specific death rates during 2020 and during the preceding five years, our aim is to get more accurate estimates of the excess mortality attributed to COVID-19 in Sweden, and in the most affected region Stockholm. Results Eight weeks after Sweden’s first confirmed case, the death rates at all ages above 60 were higher than for previous years. Persons above age 80 were disproportionally more affected, and men suffered greater excess mortality than women in ages up to 75 years. At older ages, the excess mortality was similar for men and women, with up to 1.5 times higher death rates for Sweden and up to 3 times higher for Stockholm. Life expectancy at age 50 declined by less than 1 year for Sweden and 1.5 years for Stockholm compared to 2019. Conclusions The excess mortality has been high in older ages during the pandemic, but it remains to be answered if this is because of age itself being a prognostic factor or a proxy for comorbidity. Only monitoring deaths at a national level may hide the effect of the pandemic on the regional level.

scholarly journals EXCESS MORTALITY FROM COVID-19. WEEKLY EXCESS DEATH RATES BY AGE AND SEX FOR SWEDEN.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karin Modig ◽  
Marcus Ebeling
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Total Mortality ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Excess Death ◽  
Relative Risks ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Age And Sex

Objectives: Mortality from Covid-19 is monitored in detail both within as well as between countries with different strategies against the virus. However, death counts and relative risks based on crude numbers can be misleading. Instead, age specific death rates should be used for comparability. Given the difficulty of ascertainment of Covid-19 specific deaths, excess all-cause mortality is currently more appropriate for comparisons. By estimating age- and sex-specific death rates we aim to get more accurate estimates of the excess mortality attributed to Covid-19, as well as the difference between men and women in Sweden. Design: We make use of Swedish register data about total weekly deaths, total population at risk, and estimate age- and sex-specific weekly death rates for 2020 and the 5 previous years. The data is provided by Statistics Sweden. Results: From the first week of April and onwards, the death rates at all ages above 60 are higher than those in previous years in Sweden. Persons above age 80 are dis-proportionally more affected, and men suffer higher levels of excess mortality than women at all ages with 75% higher death rates for males and 50% higher for females. Current excess mortality corresponds to a decline in remaining life expectancy of 3 years for men and 2 years for women. Conclusion: The Covid-19 pandemic has so far had a clear and consistent effect on total mortality in Sweden, with male death rates being comparably more affected. What consequences the pandemic will eventually have on mortality and life expectancy will depend on the progression of the pandemic, the extent that some of the deaths would have occurred in the absence of the pandemic, only somewhat later, the consequences for other health conditions, as well as the health care sector at large.

Effects of Age and Disease Duration on Excess Mortality in Patients With Multiple Sclerosis From a French Nationwide Cohort

Neurology ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 10.1212/WNL.0000000000012224
Author(s):  
Fabien ROLLOT ◽  
Mathieu Fauvernier ◽  
Zoe Uhry ◽  
Sandra Vukusic ◽  
Nadine Bossard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Multiple Sclerosis ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Disease Duration ◽  
Age At Onset ◽  
Disease Onset ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Excess Death ◽  
Clinical Onset ◽  
Lost To Follow Up ◽  
The Impact

ObjectiveTo determine the effects of current age and disease duration on excess mortality in multiple sclerosis, we described the dynamics of excess deaths rates over these two time scales and studied the impact of age at multiple sclerosis clinical onset on these dynamics, separately in each initial phenotype.MethodsWe used data from 18 French multiple sclerosis expert centers participating in the Observatoire Français de la Sclérose en Plaques. Patients with multiple sclerosis living in metropolitan France and having a clinical onset between 1960 and 2014 were included. Vital status was updated on January 1st, 2016. For each multiple sclerosis phenotype separately (relapsing onset (R-MS) or primary progressive (PPMS)), we used an innovative statistical method to model the logarithm of excess death rates by a multidimensional penalized spline of age and disease duration.ResultsAmong 37524 patients (71% women, mean age at multiple sclerosis onset ± standard deviation 33.0 ± 10.6 years), 2883 (7.7%) deaths were observed and 7.8% of patients were lost-to-follow-up. For R-MS patients, there was no excess mortality during the first 10 years after disease onset; afterwards, whatever age at onset, excess death rates increased with current age. From current age 70, the excess death rates values converged and became identical whatever the age at disease onset, which means that disease duration had no more impact. Excess death rates were higher in men with an excess hazard ratio of 1.46 (95% confidence interval 1.25-1.70). In contrast, in PPMS patients, excess death rates rapidly increased from disease onset, and were associated with age at onset, but not with sex.ConclusionsIn R-MS, current age has a stronger impact on multiple sclerosis mortality than disease duration while their respective effects are not so clear in PPMS.

scholarly journals Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: a geospatial and statistical analysis in Mogadishu, Somalia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdihamid Warsame ◽  
Farah Bashiir ◽  
Terri Freemantle ◽  
Chris Williams ◽  
Yolanda Vazquez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Public Health System ◽  
Vital Registration ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Excess Death ◽  
Qualitative Survey ◽  
Burial Rates ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Area Data

Background While the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been well documented in high-income countries, much less is known about its impact in Somalia where health systems are weak and vital registration is under developed. Methods We used remote sensing and geospatial analysis to quantify the number of burials from January 2017 to September 2020 in Mogadishu. We imputed missing grave counts using surface area data. Simple interpolation and a generalised additive mixed growth model were used to predict both actual and counterfactual burial rates by cemetery and across Mogadishu during the most likely period of COVID-19 excess mortality and to compute excess burials. We also undertook a qualitative survey of key informants to determine the drivers of COVID-19 excess mortality. Results Burial rates increased during the pandemic period with a ratio to pre-pandemic levels averaging 1.5-fold and peaking at 2.2-fold. When scaled to plausible range of baseline Crude Death Rates (CDR), excess death toll between January and September 2020 ranged between 3,200 and 11,800. When compared to burial records of the Barakaat Cemetery Committee our estimates were found to be lower. Conclusions Our study points to considerable under estimation of COVID-19 impact in Banadir and an overburdened public health system struggling to deal with the increasing severity of the epidemic in 2020.

Mortality Rates and Excess Death Rates for the Seriously Mentally Ill

2018 ◽  
Vol 47 (4) ◽  
pp. 212-219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J Reynolds ◽  
Steven M Day ◽  
Alan Shafer ◽  
Emilie Becker
Keyword(s):  
Mental Illness ◽  
Serious Mental Illness ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Life Tables ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Excess Death ◽  
Life Years ◽  
Race Ethnicity ◽  
Summary Measures ◽  
Population Rate

Objectives.—To compute mortality rates and excess death rates for patients with serious mental illness, specific to categories of gender, age and race/ethnicity. Background.—People with serious mental illness are known to be at greatly increased risk of mortality across the lifespan. However, the measures of mortality reported for this high-risk population are typically only summary measures, which do not provide either the mortality rates or excess death rates needed to construct life tables for individuals with serious mental illness. Methods.—Mortality rates were computed by dividing the number of deaths by the amount of life-years lived in strata specific to gender, age and race/ethnicity. Age-specific excess death rates were determined as the difference between the study population rate and the corresponding general population rate in each stratum. To compute excess death rates beyond observed ages in the cohort, a method with documented reliability and validity for chronic medical conditions was used. Results.—For the cohort with mental illness, mortality rates for Black and White females were mostly equal, and consistently greater than those for Hispanic females; excess death rates for females displayed a similar pattern. Among males, mortality rates were highest for Whites, with Hispanics and Blacks close in magnitude at all ages. Excess death rates for males showed more divergence between the categories of race/ethnicity across the age range. Conclusions.—Mortality rates specific to categories of gender, age and race/ethnicity show sufficient differences as to make them the preferred way to construct life tables. This is especially true in contrast to broader summary measures such as risk ratios, standardized incidence rates, or life expectancy.

scholarly journals COVID-19-Related Mortality across the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries: Based on Countries’ Available Data Up to November, 2020

2021 ◽  
pp. 159-166
Author(s):  
Amar Ahmad ◽  
Heba Mamdouh ◽  
Heba Al- Naseri ◽  
Aisha Al Hamiz ◽  
Christian Heumann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Relative Risk ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
P Value ◽  
Mixed Effect ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Gcc Countries ◽  
Crude Mortality ◽  
Significant Difference

Background: The world has endured a high burden of mortality and morbidity due to Covid-19 over the last year. There may be factors that account for differences in mortality rates. The Gulf Corporation Council (GCC) countries share similar cultural identities, socioeconomic conditions, population structure and display similar health-status composition of their population. There is a demand for data on the differentials of the COVID-19 pandemic across all countries. This statistical analysis primarily compared the crude mortality rates, and estimates the relative risk of COVID-19 death rates across the GCC countries using longitudinal study design. Methods: This statistical analysis used downloaded data from Our World in Data, which was last updated on November 19, 2020. We computed COVID-19 crude mortality rates for the GCC countries individually. We estimated COVID-19 death rates for the GCC countries and compared them to the reference largest country Saudi Arabia. To adjust for most relevant confounding factors for COVID-19 deaths, a Poisson mixed effect regression model was fitted with COVID-19 new cases and the number test per case as fixed effect predictors of COVID-19 deaths.  Results: The estimated relative risk of COVID-19 deaths rates for UAE and Qatar was 0.352 (95% CI: 0.220-0.564, p-value <0.001) and 0.467 (95% CI: 0.287-0.762, p-value = 0.002), respectively, showing 64.8% and 53.3% fewer COVID-19 death rates compared to Saudi Arabia, individually. No statistically significant difference was found between Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman as compared with Saudi Arabia. Conclusion: The UAE has the lowest COVID-19 death rate among any other GCC countries, followed by Qatar. In addition, the number of tests per case were negatively associated with the number of Covid-19 deaths. Besides, the number of new COCID-19 infections relative to the number of patients correlates with the number of patient deaths.

scholarly journals Characterizing all-cause excess mortality patterns during COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sushma Dahal ◽  
Juan M. Banda ◽  
Ana I Bento ◽  
Kenji Mizumoto ◽  
Gerardo Chowell
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Mexico City ◽  
Rate Ratio ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Geographic Region ◽  
P Value ◽  
Media Interaction ◽  
Mortality Rate Ratio ◽  
Excess Deaths

Background: The low testing rates, compounded by reporting delays, hinders the estimation of the mortality burden associated with the COVID-19 pandemic based on surveillance data alone. A more reliable picture of the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on mortality can be derived by estimating excess deaths above an expected level of death. In this study we aim to estimate the absolute and relative mortality impact of COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico in 2020 by gender and two geographic regions: Mexico City and the rest of the country. Methods: We obtained mortality time series due to all causes for Mexico, and by gender, and geographic region using epidemiological weeks from January to December 2020 and for preceding 5 years. We also compiled data on COVID-19 related morbidity and mortality to assess the timing and intensity of the pandemic in Mexico. We assembled weekly series of the number of tweets about death from Mexico to assess the correlation between media interaction of people about death and the rise in pandemic deaths. We estimated all-cause excess mortality rates and mortality rate ratio increase over baseline by fitting Serfling regression models. Results: The COVID-19 pandemic excess mortality rates per 10,000 population in Mexico between March 1, 2020 and January 2, 2021 was estimated at 26.10. The observed total number of deaths due to COVID-19 was 128,886 which is 38.64% of the total estimated excess deaths. Males had about 2-fold higher excess mortality rate (33.99) compared to females (18.53). The excess mortality rate for Mexico City (63.54) was about 2.7-fold higher than the rest of the country (23.25). Similarly, the mortality rate ratio relative to baseline was highest for Mexico City (RR: 2.09). There was no significant correlation between weekly number of tweets on death and the weekly all-cause excess mortality rates (ρ=0.309 (95% CI: 0.010, 0.558, p-value=0.043). Conclusion: The excess mortality rate of 26.10 per 10,000 population corresponds to a total of 333,538 excess deaths in Mexico between March 1, 2020 to January 2, 2021. COVID-19 accounted for only 38.21% of the total excess deaths, which reflects either the effect of low testing rates in Mexico, or the surge in number of deaths due to other causes.

scholarly journals Covid-19 and excess mortality rates not comparable across countries

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabrielle E Kelly ◽  
Stefano Petti ◽  
Norman Noah
Keyword(s):  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Spatial Clustering ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Government Response ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Specific Mortality ◽  
Excess Deaths

Abstract: Evidence that more people in some countries and fewer in others are dying because of the pandemic, than is reflected by reported Covid-19 mortality rates, is derived from mortality data. Worldwide, mortality data is used to estimate the full extent of the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, both direct and indirect; the possible short fall in the number of cases reported to the WHO; and to suggest explanations for differences between countries. Excess mortality data is largely varying across countries and is not directly proportional to Covid-19 mortality. Using publicly available databases, deaths attributed to Covid-19 in 2020 and all deaths for the years 2015-2020 were tabulated for 36 countries together with economic, health, demographic, and government response stringency index variables. Residual death rates in 2020 were calculated as excess deaths minus death rates due to Covid-19 where excess deaths were observed deaths in 2020 minus the average for 2015-2019. For about half the countries, residual deaths were negative and for half, positive. The absolute rates in some countries were double those in others. In a regression analysis, the stringency index (p=0.026) was positively associated with residual mortality. There was no evidence of spatial clustering of residual mortality. The results show that published data on mortality from Covid-19 cannot be directly comparable across countries, likely due to differences in Covid-19 death reporting. In addition, the unprecedented public health measures implemented to control the pandemic may have produced either increased or reduced excess deaths due to other diseases. Further data on cause-specific mortality is required to determine the extent to which residual mortality represents non-Covid-19 deaths and to explain differences between countries.

scholarly journals Longitudinal variability in mortality predicts Covid-19 deaths

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jon O. Lundberg ◽  
Hugo Zeberg
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Viral Disease ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Current Outbreak ◽  
Longitudinal Variability ◽  
Influenza Vaccinations

AbstractWithin Europe, death rates due to covid-19 vary greatly, with some countries being hardly hit while others to date are almost unaffected. It would be of interest to pinpoint the factors that determine a country’s susceptibility to a pandemic such as covid-19.Here we present data demonstrating that mortality due to covid-19 in a given country could have been largely predicted even before the pandemic hit Europe, simply by looking at longitudinal variability of all-cause mortality rates in the years preceding the current outbreak. The variability in death rates during the influenza seasons of 2015-2019 correlate to excess mortality caused by covid-19 in 2020 (R2=0.48, p<0.0001). In contrast, we found no correlation between such excess mortality and age, population density, degree of urbanization, latitude, GNP, governmental health spendings or rates of influenza vaccinations.These data may be of some relevance when discussing the effectiveness of acute measures in order to limit the spread of the disease and ultimately deaths. They suggest that in some European countries there is an intrinsic susceptibility to fatal respiratory viral disease including covid-19; a susceptibility that was evident long before the arrival of the current pandemic.

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