Transient population dynamics drive the spread of invasive wild pigs in North America

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan S Miller ◽  
Michael Tabak ◽  
Christopher L Burdett ◽  
David W Wolfson
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
North America ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Spatial Models ◽  
Initial Population ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wild Pigs ◽  
Transient Population

Invasion of nonindigenous species is considered one of the most urgent problems affecting native ecosystems and agricultural systems. Mechanistic models that account for short-term population dynamics can improve prediction because they incorporate differing demographic processes that link the environmental conditions of a spatial location explicitly with the invasion process. Yet short-term population dynamics are rarely accounted for in spatial models of invasive species spread. Accounting for transient population dynamics, we predict the population growth rate and establishment probability of wild pigs following introduction into any location in North America. We compared predicted population growth rate with observed geographic rates of spread and found significant relationships between the annual rate of spread and population growth rates. We used geospatial data on the distribution of mast producing tree species (a principle forage resource of wild pigs) and agricultural crops that can replace mast in their diets to predict population dynamics using transient population simulations. We simulated populations under different initial population sizes (i.e. number of introduced individuals, often termed propagule size) and for different amounts of time following introduction. By varying the initial population size and simulation time, we were able to identify areas in North America with high probability for establishment of wild pigs if introduced. Our findings can be used to inform surveillance and removal efforts to reduce the potential for establishment and spread of wild pigs.

scholarly journals Breeding transients in capture–recapture modeling and their consequences for local population dynamics

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Oro ◽  
Daniel F. Doak
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Environmental Stochasticity ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Local Survival ◽  
First Reproduction ◽  
Capture Recapture

Abstract Standard procedures for capture–mark–recapture modelling (CMR) for the study of animal demography include running goodness-of-fit tests on a general starting model. A frequent reason for poor model fit is heterogeneity in local survival among individuals captured for the first time and those already captured or seen on previous occasions. This deviation is technically termed a transience effect. In specific cases, simple, uni-state CMR modeling showing transients may allow researchers to assess the role of these transients on population dynamics. Transient individuals nearly always have a lower local survival probability, which may appear for a number of reasons. In most cases, transients arise due to permanent dispersal, higher mortality, or a combination of both. In the case of higher mortality, transients may be symptomatic of a cost of first reproduction. A few studies working at large spatial scales actually show that transients more often correspond to survival costs of first reproduction rather than to permanent dispersal, bolstering the interpretation of transience as a measure of costs of reproduction, since initial detections are often associated with first breeding attempts. Regardless of their cause, the loss of transients from a local population should lower population growth rate. We review almost 1000 papers using CMR modeling and find that almost 40% of studies fitting the searching criteria (N = 115) detected transients. Nevertheless, few researchers have considered the ecological or evolutionary meaning of the transient phenomenon. Only three studies from the reviewed papers considered transients to be a cost of first reproduction. We also analyze a long-term individual monitoring dataset (1988–2012) on a long-lived bird to quantify transients, and we use a life table response experiment (LTRE) to measure the consequences of transients at a population level. As expected, population growth rate decreased when the environment became harsher while the proportion of transients increased. LTRE analysis showed that population growth can be substantially affected by changes in traits that are variable under environmental stochasticity and deterministic perturbations, such as recruitment, fecundity of experienced individuals, and transient probabilities. This occurred even though sensitivities and elasticities of these parameters were much lower than those for adult survival. The proportion of transients also increased with the strength of density-dependence. These results have implications for ecological and evolutionary studies and may stimulate other researchers to explore the ecological processes behind the occurrence of transients in capture–recapture studies. In population models, the inclusion of a specific state for transients may help to make more reliable predictions for endangered and harvested species.

scholarly journals Contrasting effects of climate on grey heron, malleefowl and barn owl populations

2012 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Boyle ◽  
Jim Hone
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Bird Species ◽  
Barn Owl ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Grey Heron

Context The population dynamics of many wildlife species are associated with fluctuations in climate. Food and abundance may also influence wildlife dynamics. Aims The present paper aims to evaluate the relative effects of climate on the annual instantaneous population growth rate (r) of the following three bird species: grey heron and barn owl in parts of Britain and malleefowl in a part of Australia. Methods A priori hypotheses of mechanistic effects of climate are derived and evaluated using information theoretic and regression analyses and published data for the three bird species. Climate was measured as the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) for herons and owls, and rainfall and also the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for malleefowl. Key results Population dynamics of grey heron were positively related to the winter NAO, and of malleefowl were positively related to annual rainfall and related in a non-linear manner to SOI. By contrast, population dynamics of barn owl were very weakly related to climate. The best models for the grey heron differed between time periods but always included an effect of the NAO. Conclusions The annual population growth rate of grey heron, malleefowl and barn owl show contrasting relationships with climate, from stronger (heron and malleefowl) to weaker (barn owl). The results were broadly consistent with reported patterns but differed in some details. Interpretation of the effects of climate on the basis of analyses rather than visual assessment is encouraged. Implications Effects of climate differ among species, so effects of future climate change may also differ.

scholarly journals Population growth rates: issues and an application

2002 ◽  
Vol 357 (1425) ◽  
pp. 1307-1319 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Charles J. Godfray ◽  
Mark Rees
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Evolutionarily Stable Strategy ◽  
Model Systems ◽  
Population Growth Rates

Current issues in population dynamics are discussed in the context of The Royal Society Discussion Meeting 'Population growth rate: determining factors and role in population regulation'. In particular, different views on the centrality of population growth rates to the study of population dynamics and the role of experiments and theory are explored. Major themes emerging include the role of modern statistical techniques in bringing together experimental and theoretical studies, the importance of long-term experimentation and the need for ecology to have model systems, and the value of population growth rate as a means of understanding and predicting population change. The last point is illustrated by the application of a recently introduced technique, integral projection modelling, to study the population growth rate of a monocarpic perennial plant, its elasticities to different life-history components and the evolution of an evolutionarily stable strategy size at flowering.

Population Dynamics of Crenate Broomrape (Orobanche crenata) in Faba Bean (Vicia faba)

Weed Science ◽  
1993 ◽  
Vol 41 (4) ◽  
pp. 563-567 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisca Lopez-Granados ◽  
Luis Garcia-Torres
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Density ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Faba Bean ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Spatial Dispersion ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Orobanche Crenata ◽  
Soil Temperatures

Progression of crenate broomrape population density (PD, number of emerged plants m-2) in faba bean was studied over 8 yr in Spain. Spatial dispersion and effect of climatic conditions on parasite population growth rate (PGR) also were studied. With repeated cropping of faba bean, infestations of crenate broomrape increased from an initial PD of 0.15 to an average of 26, with a maximum of about 40 to 45. The average population growth rate (PGR, ratio between the PD of any 2 consecutive years) was approximately 3. However, this figure varied widely among localities and years, from 0.8 to 7.7. A highly significant relationship (P = 0.01) was found between PGR and rainfall and soil temperatures during December to February, months of crop vegetative growth. Dispersion of crenate broomrape infestations mainly followed direction of crop rows, most likely due to the effect of tillage and harvesting operations, which were the same direction as sowing.

Seasonal variation in the population growth rate of a dominant zooplankter: what determines its population dynamics?

2013 ◽  
Vol 58 (6) ◽  
pp. 1221-1233 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raquel Jiménez-Melero ◽  
José M. Ramírez ◽  
Francisco Guerrero
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Growth Rate

SOME MICRO-ECOLOGICAL FACTORS INFLUENCING THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF SCHISTOSOMIASIS INTERMEDIATE HOST SNAILS IN KHARTOUM STATE, SUDA

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (8) ◽  
pp. 147-151
Author(s):  
A. Zakaria Mohamed ◽  
Azzam Afifi ◽  
Yassir Sulieman ◽  
Theerakamol Pengsakul
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Intermediate Host ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Ecological Factors ◽  
Water Bodies ◽  
Snail Population ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
High Turbidity

This study was conducted to determine the role of some micro-ecological factors influencing the population dynamics of schistosomiasis intermediate host snails in the water bodies of Khartoum State, Sudan. The results show that the air and water temperature play a significant role in the determination of snail growth, a gradual increase of air and water temperate causing an increase in the snail population growth rate with the peak in summer. Water of high turbidity and high current speed caused a drop in the snail population. Vegetation cover in water bodies showed a significant effect on the snail population, the denser the cover the higher the snail population growth rate.

scholarly journals An evolutionary maximum principle for density-dependent population dynamics in a fluctuating environment

2009 ◽  
Vol 364 (1523) ◽  
pp. 1511-1518 ◽  
Author(s):  
Russell Lande ◽  
Steinar Engen ◽  
Bernt-Erik Sæther
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Density Dependence ◽  
Stationary Distribution ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Long Term Evolution ◽  
Intrinsic Rate Of Increase ◽  
Term Evolution

The evolution of population dynamics in a stochastic environment is analysed under a general form of density-dependence with genetic variation in r and K , the intrinsic rate of increase and carrying capacity in the average environment, and in σ e 2 , the environmental variance of population growth rate. The continuous-time model assumes a large population size and a stationary distribution of environments with no autocorrelation. For a given population density, N , and genotype frequency, p , the expected selection gradient is always towards an increased population growth rate, and the expected fitness of a genotype is its Malthusian fitness in the average environment minus the covariance of its growth rate with that of the population. Long-term evolution maximizes the expected value of the density-dependence function, averaged over the stationary distribution of N . In the θ -logistic model, where density dependence of population growth is a function of N θ , long-term evolution maximizes E[ N θ ]=[1− σ e 2 /(2 r )] K θ . While σ e 2 is always selected to decrease, r and K are always selected to increase, implying a genetic trade-off among them. By contrast, given the other parameters, θ has an intermediate optimum between 1.781 and 2 corresponding to the limits of high or low stochasticity.

scholarly journals Multiple coping strategies maintain stability of a small mammal population in resource-restricted environments

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ann Polyakov ◽  
William Tietje ◽  
Arjun Srivathsa ◽  
Virginie Rolland ◽  
James Hines ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Coping Strategies ◽  
Small Mammal ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Central California ◽  
Brush Mice ◽  
Semi Arid

In semi-arid environments, aperiodic rainfall pulses determine cycles of plant production and resource availability for higher trophic levels, creating strong bottom-up regulation. The influence of climatic factors on population vital rates often shapes the dynamics of small mammal populations in such resource-restricted environments. Using a 21-year biannual capture–recapture dataset (1993 to 2014), we examined the impacts of climatic factors on the population dynamics of the brush mouse (Peromyscus boylii) in semi-arid oak woodland of coastal-central California. We applied Pradel’s temporal symmetry model to estimate capture probability (p), apparent survival (φ), recruitment (f), and realized population growth rate (λ) of the brush mouse, and examined the effects of temperature, rainfall, and El Niño on these demographic parameters. The population was stable during the study period with a monthly realized population growth rate of 0.993 ± SE 0.032, but growth varied over time from 0.680 ± 0.054 to 1.450 ± 0.083. Monthly survival estimates averaged 0.817 ± 0.005 and monthly recruitment estimates averaged 0.175 ± 0.038. Survival probability and realized population growth were positively correlated with rainfall and negatively correlated with temperature. In contrast, recruitment was negatively correlated with rainfall and positively correlated with temperature. Brush mice maintained their population through multiple coping strategies, investing in high recruitment during warmer and drier periods and allocating more energy towards survival during cooler and wetter conditions. Although climatic change in coastal-central California will favor recruitment over survival, varying strategies may serve as a mechanism by which brush mice maintain resilience in the face of climate change. Our results indicate that rainfall and temperature are both important drivers of brush mouse population dynamics and will play a significant role in predicting the future viability of brush mice under a changing climate.

scholarly journals Drivers of large-scale spatial demographic variation in a perennial plant

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gesa Römer ◽  
Ditte M. Christiansen ◽  
Hendrik de Buhr ◽  
Kristoffer Hylander ◽  
Owen R. Jones ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Spatial Variation ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Forest Understory ◽  
Environmental Drivers ◽  
Vital Rates ◽  
The Impact

AbstractTo understand how the environment drives spatial variation in population dynamics, we need to assess the effects of a large number of potential drivers on the vital rates (survival, growth and reproduction), and explore these relationships over large geographical areas and long environmental gradients. In this study, we examined the effects of a broad variety of abiotic and biotic environmental factors, including intraspecific density, on the demography of the forest understory herb Actaea spicata between 2017 and 2019 at 40 sites across Sweden, including the northern range margin of its distribution. We assessed the effect of potential environmental drivers on vital rates using generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), and then quantified the impact of each important driver on population growth rate (λ) using integral projection models (IPMs). Population dynamics of A. spicata were mostly driven by environmental factors affecting survival and growth, such as air humidity, soil depth and forest tree species composition, and thus those drivers jointly determined the realized niche of the species. Soil pH had a strong effect on the flowering probability, while the effect on population growth rate was relatively small. In addition to identifying specific drivers for A. spicata’s population dynamics, our study illustrates the impact that spatial variation in environmental conditions can have on λ. Assessing the effects of a broad range of potential drivers, as done in this study, is important not only to quantify the relative importance of different drivers for population dynamics but also to understand species distributions and abundance patterns.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document