Stochastic dynamics of an epidemics with recurrent spillovers from an endemic reservoir

AbstractMost emerging human infectious diseases have an animal origin. Yet, while zoonotic diseases originate from a primary reservoir, most theoretical studies have principally focused on single-host processes, either exclusively humans or exclusively animals, without considering the importance of animal to human transmission for understanding the dynamics of emerging infectious diseases. Here we aim to investigate the importance of spillover transmission for explaining the number and the size of outbreaks. We propose a simple stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model with a recurrent infection of an incidental host from a reservoir (e.g. humans by a zoonotic species), considering two modes of transmission, (1) animal-to-human and (2) human-to-human. The model assumes that (i) epidemiological processes are faster than other processes such as demographics or pathogen evolution and (ii) that an epidemic occurs until there are no susceptible individuals left. The results show that during an epidemic, even when the pathogens are barely contagious, multiple outbreaks are observed due to spillover transmission. Overall, the findings demonstrate that the only consideration of direct transmission between individuals is not sufficient to explain the dynamics of zoonotic pathogens in an incidental host.

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Emerging zoonoses in Indonesia: implication for the future

Zinc supplementation improves heme biosynthesis in rats exposed to lead ◽

10.18051/univmed.2020.v39.151-152 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 39 (3) ◽

pp. 151

Author(s):

Toni Wandra

Keyword(s):

Infectious Diseases ◽

World Health Organization ◽

Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽

Zoonotic Diseases ◽

World Health ◽

Emerging Zoonoses ◽

The Future ◽

Health Organization

World Health Organization (WHO) defines zoonotic diseases (zoonoses) as those diseases and infections which are naturally transmitted between vertebrate animals and humans. More than 250 zoonoses have been described, over 60% of pathogens that cause diseases in humans are zoonoses of animals, and 75% of emerging infectious diseases. Most pandemics are caused by zoonoses.

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Research Activities of Hokudai Center for Zoonosis Control in Zambia

Journal of Disaster Research ◽

10.20965/jdr.2014.p0818 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 9 (5) ◽

pp. 818-822

Author(s):

Hideaki Higashi ◽

◽

Hiroshi Kida

Keyword(s):

South Africa ◽

Infectious Diseases ◽

Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽

Epidemiological Studies ◽

Zoonotic Diseases ◽

University Research ◽

Research Activities ◽

Level 3 ◽

The University ◽

Biosafety Level

The Hokkaido University Research Center for Zoonosis Control (CZC) established the Hokudai Center for Zoonosis Control in Zambia (HUCZCZ) at the School of Veterinary Medicine, the University of Zambia, in 2007 to control zoonotic diseases in the areas of South Africa, where various emerging infectious diseases have occurred. The CZC promotes epidemiological studies and basic researches of infectious diseases caused by viruses, protozoa, and bacteria by using the biosafety level 3 facility in the HUCZCZ. This article introduces research activities of the HUCZCZ in Zambia.

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THE OVERVIEW OF EPIZOOTIOLOGIC SITUATION OF EQUIDS AND RUMINANTS IN MONGOLIA

Mongolian Journal of Agricultural Sciences ◽

10.5564/mjas.v21i02.899 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 21 (02) ◽

pp. 9-16

Author(s):

Khatanbaatar I ◽

V Skotakova ◽

Byambarenchin B ◽

Batsukh Z ◽

Battsetseg G ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Global Change ◽

Infectious Diseases ◽

Labour Force ◽

Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽

Animal Origin ◽

Zoonotic Potential ◽

Wide Spread ◽

The World

Ecological inbalance, global change, new mode of lifestyle and increasing population cause the spread of zoonotic infectious diseases around the world and re-emergence disease among many others. The aim of this article is to summarize the situation of the important infectious diseases of the ruminants and horses in Mongolia. Some of these diseases have zoonotic potential, too. Livestock in Mongolia is an irreplaceable source of livelihood, labour force, means of transport, subsistence and companion as well as important component of the culture in this part of world. However, due to the wide-spread of these animals they also serve as a host and vector for many dangerous infectious diseases. Our overview focuses on the most important infectious diseases,mainly zoonoses in Mongolia and its current epizootologic status. People may be infected during contact with infected animals, though a more frequent path of infection is via foodstuffs of animal origin. Re-emerging infectious diseases are diseases that are already familiar to us and their increased occurrence is associated with a change in the process of transmission of infection.

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Practical aspects of prevention and control

Manual of Infection Prevention and Control ◽

10.1093/med/9780198815938.003.0006 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 143-232

Author(s):

Nizam Damani

Keyword(s):

Infectious Diseases ◽

Prevention And Control ◽

Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽

Building Design ◽

Multidrug Resistant ◽

Alphabetical Order ◽

Practical Advice ◽

Modes Of Transmission ◽

Operating Theatres ◽

And Control

The chapter examines various types of isolation precautions and provides practical advice on infection prevention and control (IPC) measures to be taken on isolation of patients of new and emerging infectious diseases. In an alphabetical order, it lists IPC precautions, modes of transmission of infections, incubation periods, periods of infectivity, and the duration of isolation for various infectious diseases and multidrug- resistant microorganisms (MDROs). The well-illustrated chapters explain how to properly don and take off various types of personal protective equipment. It reviews the most up-to-date information on the various aspects of hand hygiene, including hand washing and proper use of alcohol-based hand rub products. Practical advice is also given on injection safety, how to prevent transmission of infection after death and prevention of infection by healthcare building design which also includes ventilation of operating theatres.

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Bats as a source of emerging zoonotic diseases – the interface with wildlife

Microbiology Australia ◽

10.1071/ma12150 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 33 (4) ◽

pp. 150

Author(s):

Lin-Fa Wang

Keyword(s):

Infectious Diseases ◽

Human Health ◽

Rapid Change ◽

Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽

Zoonotic Diseases ◽

Morbidity And Mortality ◽

Mammal Species ◽

Modern Times ◽

High Profile ◽

Zoonotic Viruses

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are defined as infections that have newly appeared in a population or have undergone a rapid change in incidence or geographic location1. Since 1940s, more than 300 EIDs have been recorded2, most of which are viruses. Approximately 75% of human EIDs originated from animals. Of all the EIDs, zoonoses from wildlife represent the most significant threat to human health. Zoonotic EIDs have been identified in a variety of wildlife animals, including ungulates, carnivores, rodents, primates, bats and other mammal and non-mammal species. AIDS, the most significant EID of modern times, originated from non-human primates. Rodents have long been recognised as an important source of EIDs including hantavirus, plaque and lyme disease3. In the last few decades, bats (Order Chiroptera) have received growing attention as reservoirs for EIDs. Particularly, a number of high profile zoonotic viruses with significant human and animal morbidity and mortality have been linked to bat reservoirs4,5.

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Evidence of human infection by a new mammarenavirus endemic to Southeastern Asia

eLife ◽

10.7554/elife.13135 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 5 ◽

Cited By ~ 30

Author(s):

Kim R Blasdell ◽

Veasna Duong ◽

Marc Eloit ◽

Fabrice Chretien ◽

Sowath Ly ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Infectious Diseases ◽

Human Disease ◽

Disease Burden ◽

Genetic Variant ◽

Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽

Lymphocytic Choriomeningitis ◽

Human Infection ◽

Lymphocytic Choriomeningitis Virus ◽

Animal Origin ◽

Diverse Species

Southeastern Asia is a recognised hotspot for emerging infectious diseases, many of which have an animal origin. Mammarenavirus infections contribute significantly to the human disease burden in both Africa and the Americas, but little data exists for Asia. To date only two mammarenaviruses, the widely spread lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus and the recently described Wēnzhōu virus have been identified in this region, but the zoonotic impact in Asia remains unknown. Here we report the presence of a novel mammarenavirus and of a genetic variant of the Wēnzhōu virus and provide evidence of mammarenavirus-associated human infection in Asia. The association of these viruses with widely distributed mammals of diverse species, commonly found in human dwellings and in peridomestic habitats, illustrates the potential for widespread zoonotic transmission and adds to the known aetiologies of infectious diseases for this region.

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STRUCTURE AND DISTRIBUTION OF LEADING ZOONOSES IN VOJVODINA IN 2000-2009 PERIOD

Archives of Veterinary Medicine ◽

10.46784/e-avm.v3i1.193 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 3 (1) ◽

pp. 63-72

Author(s):

Miroljub Ristić ◽

Zorica Šeguljev ◽

Branka Vidić ◽

Vladimir Petrović ◽

Svetlana Ilić

Keyword(s):

Infectious Diseases ◽

Human Population ◽

Q Fever ◽

Zoonotic Diseases ◽

Animal Origin ◽

Reservoir Species ◽

Prophylactic Measures ◽

Significant Difference ◽

Control And Prevention ◽

Vector Borne

The data show that from more than 1.400 today known microorganisms, that cause infections in human population, 61% is of animal origin. The list of known zoonoses is enlarged every day, new diseases are recognized and discovered. Because of this, zoonoses are significant health and economical problem in the world. The participation of these diseases in national pathology of the inhabitants of certain area depends on the presence and number of foci, type of reservoir species, application and efficency of prophylactic measures. The goal of this paper is to analyze the structure and distribution of leading zoonoses in the population of AP Vojvodina. The analysis is made according to the data from the register of infectious diseases - Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Institute for Public Health of Vojvodina. The period included in this study is from 2000 to 2009. From 70 infectious diseases, which are to be declared according to national legislative, half of them are zoonotic diseases. In this analysis we treat only zoonotic diseases and vector borne zoonotic diseases registered in past 10 years. In the period included in this study 15 zoonotic diseases and vector borne zoonoses have been registered in AP Vojvodina. The highest level of incidence is for lyme disease, with the average 9,91/100.000 and trichinellosis with the average 6.40/t 100.000 (Table 1). Toxoplasmosis, Q fever, leptospirosis and echinococcosis have been registered in Vojvodina regularly, and the average incidence is below 1/100.000. The range from minimal to maximal registered incidence shows that there was not a significant difference in epidemiological situation of these diseases. Other zoonoses have been registered rarely and occasionally, as autochthonous or imported diseases (leishmaniasis). In this group of diseases 41 deaths have been registered. Most of it was caused by tetanus and leptospirosis. The lethality rate of tetanus was 54.55% and the patients were of the oldest age. Lethality rate from leptospirosis was 12.0%, and unlike tetanus, the patients belonged in the middle age group. The registered incidences of zoonoses in human population do not present the real situation because of the diagnostic and rapid recognition of symptoms. Some vector borne zoonotic diseases, like for example tick born meningoencephalitis and West Nile Virus fever, which regularly occur in Europe and surrounding countries, have not yet been registered in our region and Serbia. However, the risk from the infections and a possibility of occurrence is not eliminated.

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Anaesthesia and Emerging Infectious Diseases

Anaesthesia and Intensive Care ◽

10.1177/0310057x9602400210 ◽

1996 ◽

Vol 24 (2) ◽

pp. 184-190 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

D. E. Dwyer

Keyword(s):

Infectious Diseases ◽

Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽

Developed Countries ◽

Oral Route ◽

Expert Advice ◽

Care Practice ◽

Modes Of Transmission ◽

Clinical Syndromes ◽

Resistance Patterns ◽

Infection Control Guidelines

New infectious diseases and microorganisms continue to be described. They may be blood- or arthropod-borne, or spread by the respiratory, sexual or faecal-oral route; in some cases, modes of transmission remain unknown or new ones have been described. Complex factors have contributed to the re-emergence of older pathogens in both developing and developed countries. Changes in medical and surgical practice have led to the frequent description of resistant gram-positive and negative bacteria, fungi and bacteria. Although many of the newly described agents may not be directly relevant to routine anaesthetic and intensive care practice, their impact on both patients and staff can be minimized by adherence to rational infection control guidelines, understanding of local disease and anti-microbial resistance patterns, sensible patient evaluation and access to expert advice. Given recent history, it can be expected that new microorganisms and clinical syndromes will continue to appear.

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