When is a fish stock collapsed?
AbstractMarine fish stock collapses are a major concern for scientists and society due to the potentially severe impacts on ecosystem resilience, food security and livelihoods. Yet the general state of harvested fish populations has proven difficult to summarize, and the actual occurrence rate of stock collapses remains unclear. We have carried out a literature review and multi-stock analysis to show that numerous definitions exist for classifying stocks as collapsed, and that the classification of a stock’s status is sensitive to changes in the collapse definition’s formulation. We suggest that the lack of a unified definition has contributed to contrasting perceptions on the state of fish stocks. Therefore, we comprehensively define what constitutes a fish stock collapse and provide a time-series based method for collapse detection. Unlike existing definitions, our definition is process-based, because it links together three important phases of collapse events: the abrupt decline, an ensuing period of prolonged depletion, and potential recovery. Furthermore, these phases are specified in terms of population turnover. Through systematic evaluation, our definition can accurately distinguish collapses from less severe depletions or natural fluctuations for stocks with diverse life histories, helping identify the stocks in greatest need of reparatory measures. Our study advocates the consistent use of definitions to limit both alarmist and conservative narratives on the state of fish stocks, and to promote cooperation between conservation and fisheries scientists. This will facilitate clear and accurate communication of science to both the public and to policy-makers to ensure healthy fish stocks in the future.
