MAT drives the variation in maximum potential species richness and frost organizes the residual variation
AbstractThe kinetic hypothesis of biodiversity proposes that Mean Annual Temperature (MAT) is the main driver of variation in species richness, given its exponential effect on rates of energy flux and thus, potentially, on rates of biological interaction and diversification. However, limited support for this hypothesis has been found to date. We tested the fit of this model on the variation of tree species richness across the Americas. We found that the kinetic hypothesis accurately predicts the upper bound of the relationship between the inverse of temperature (1,000/kK) and the natural logarithm of species richness. In addition, we found that the number of frost days organizes a substantial portion of the residual variation. Historically, attempts to explain large-scale variation of species richness has focused on gradients of independent variables, but explanatory power has been limited. More than a gradient, the fit of the upper bound of the exponential Boltzmann temperature model of variation of observed species richness can be seen as an upper limit on the species richness per unit of MAT. Likewise, the distribution of the residuals of the upper bound model in function of the number of days with freezing temperatures, shows the importance of environmental thresholds, rather than gradients driving species richness variation.