The Great Exodus

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fang Cai
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Labor Productivity ◽  
Allocative Efficiency ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
Growth Effect ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Labor Reallocation ◽  
Surplus Labor ◽  
Income Status

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to review the process of rural labor reallocation and unfolds its growth effect through sufficiently supplying human resources, preventing diminishing return to capital, and increasing labor productivity. Design/methodology/approach The author surveys literature and statistics related to the subject to comprehensively picture the 40-year course of the shift and reallocation of agricultural surplus labor. Findings In the past 40 years, reforms in relevant areas have eliminated institutional barriers deterring labor mobility and allowed agricultural laborers to exit from low-productivity farming employment, migrate beyond rural-urban boundary and across regions, sectors, and ownerships, and enter higher productivity employment in non-agricultural sectors. As a result, resources allocative efficiency has been substantially improved, contributing a significant part to labor productivity growth and thus economic growth of the Chinese economy as a whole. Social implications To sustain this source of economic growth as far as China completes its transition from upper-middle income status to high-income status, deepening reforms is urgently needed. The author provides policy suggestions for further reform. Originality/value This paper enhances people’s understanding of the Chinese economic reform and its nature of efficiency and inclusion.

The cultural dividend: a hidden source of economic growth in emerging countries

2017 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 590-616 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaomin Li ◽  
Seung Ho Park ◽  
David Duden Selover
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Labor Productivity ◽  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Cultural Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Productivity ◽  
Large Scale Data ◽  
Productivity Gains

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to develop the theoretical linkage between culture and economic growth and empirically test the relationship by measuring culture and how it affects labor productivity. Design/methodology/approach This study uses a cross-section study of developing countries and regresses economic productivity growth on a set of control variables and cultural factors. Findings It is found that three cultural factors, economic attitudes, political attitudes, and attitudes towards the family, affect economic productivity growth. Originality/value Many economists ignore culture as a factor in economic growth, either because they discount the value of culture or because they have no simple way to quantify culture, resulting in the role of culture being under-researched. The study is the first to extensively examine the role of culture in productivity growth using large-scale data sources. The authors show that culture plays an important role in productivity gains across countries, contributing to the study of the effects of culture on economic development, and that culture can be empirically measured and linked to an activity that directly affects the economic growth – labor productivity.

The dynamic relationships between the female labour force and the economic growth

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Durmuş Çağrı Yıldırım ◽  
Hilal Akinci
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Participation Rate ◽  
Labour Force Participation ◽  
Female Labour Force Participation ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Female Labour ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Total Labour

PurposeIn this study, the relationship between female labour force participation rate and economic growth is investigated in middle-income countries. The study covers the period of 2001–2016 by employing a dynamic panel approach. Pooled Ordinary Least Square and Fixed Effects model estimations are calculated as a decision criterion to select proper GMM Method. The outcomes indicate that the proper estimation technique, which is a System-GMM model, evidences the U Feminisation Theory for the middle-income countries while controlling all other factors.Design/methodology/approachThe novelty of this study is that the research not only employs both difference and system generalised method of moments (GMM) estimators but also includes main explanatory variables such as education, fertility, and total labour force rate. The study provides an opportunity to review the U-shape nexus between the female labour force and economic growth while controlling education, fertility and total labour participation rate.FindingsThe estimation implies that middle-income countries support a U-shaped relationship. The fertility rate does not impact on the female labour force, and education and total labour force level have a positive influence on women's participation in the labour market.Research limitations/implicationsThis study used data that include the period of 2001–2016 for middle-income countries. So, further studies can use different periods of data or different countries.Practical implicationsThe authors emphasise the importance of economic growth for female labour force for middle-income countries. Thus, a country intending to increase female labour force should also focus on its economic growth. As the study points out, middle-income countries staying under the minimum threshold, $4698.15 (per capita), should priorities their economic improvement policies to reach their female labour force participation goal. Those countries also should be prepared for a female labour force participation declining phase until they reach the turning point income level.Social implicationsFurthermore, education is one of the critical determinants that have an impact on FLFPR. The equal opportunity for both genders to engage in education should be considered as a policy. If females do not have an equal chance to enrolment in education, it may influence the policy of increasing female labour force adversely. Fertility rate appears no more statistically significant in our study. Moreover, today, there are some countries they practise equality between genders by providing equally extended parental leave, which may be a promising policy for gender equality in the labour force and may worth a try.Originality/valueSome previous studies may suffer model mistakes due to lack of consideration the endogeneity problem and bias issue of the results as suggested by Tam (2011). Moreover, previous studies tend to choose either studying U-feminisation as excluding other variables or studying determinants of female labour force participation rate as excluding U-feminisation theory. There is not any panel data study acknowledging both concepts by using recent data to the best knowledge of the authors. Thus, the novelty of this study is that the research not only employs both difference and system generalised method of moments (GMM) estimators but also includes main explanatory variables such as education, fertility, and total labour force rate. The study provides an opportunity to review the U-shape nexus between the female labour force and economic growth while controlling education, fertility and total labour participation rate.

scholarly journals Economic growth effect of private capital inflows: a structural VAR approach for Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Friday Osemenshan Anetor
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Research Result ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Growth Effect ◽  
Private Capital ◽  
Portfolio Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of shocks in the various components of private capital inflows on economic growth in Nigeria using quarterly data in the period 1986Q1–2016Q4. Design/methodology/approach The study employs the impulse response function and the forecast error variance decomposition of the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. Findings The research result shows that shocks in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and portfolio investment inflows have a positive and significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria. In addition, FDIs accounted for significant variation in the growth of the Nigerian economy followed by portfolio investments, while personal remittances exerted the least variation in growth. Practical implications The government should promote a favorable macroeconomic environment for existing and potential foreign investors to ensure the continued inflows of FDI and portfolio investment. Originality/value The novelty of this study lies in disaggregating private capital inflows and analyzing the effect of the shock of each component on the growth of the Nigerian economy using SVAR.

scholarly journals Trust-based social capital, economic growth and property rights: explaining the relationship

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahyudin Ahmad ◽  
Stephen G. Hall
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Social Capital ◽  
Property Rights ◽  
Growth Effect ◽  
Estimation Technique ◽  
Missing Observations ◽  
Panel Estimation ◽  
Generalized Trust ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to attest whether generalized trust variable is the best proxy for social capital in explaining the latter’s effect on economic growth in a panel setting. Via a specially formulated theoretical framework, the authors also test whether the growth-effect of social capital is direct or indirect, and if it is indirect, can property rights be the link between social capital and growth. Design/methodology/approach The authors begin with testing the robustness of generalized trust variable in explaining the effect of social capital on growth and property rights. The authors then propose a number of trust-alternative variables that are shown to contain an element of trust based on theoretical arguments drawn from previous studies, to proxy for social capital and re-estimate its effect on growth and property rights. In this study, the authors use panel estimation technique, hitherto has been limited in social capital studies, which are capable of reducing omitted variable bias and time-invariant heterogeneity compared to the commonly used cross-sectional estimation. Findings First, the authors find that generalized trust data obtained by the World Value Survey (WVS) are unable to yield sufficiently robust results in panel estimation due to missing observations problem. Using the proposed trust-alternative variables, the estimation results improve significantly and the authors are able to show that social capital is a deep determinant of growth and it is affecting growth via property rights channel. The findings also give supporting evidence to the primacy of informal rules and constraints as proposed by North (2005) over the political prominence theory by Acemoglu et al. (2005). Research limitations/implications Generalized trust data obtained from the WVS, frequently used in majority of social capital studies to measure social capital, yield highly non-robust results in panel estimation due to missing observations problem. Future studies in social capital intending to use panel estimation therefore need to find trust-alternative variables to proxy for social capital, and this paper has proposed four such variables. Originality/value The use of panel estimation technique extends the evidence of social capital significance to economic growth and property rights, since the previous social capital studies rely heavily on cross-sectional estimation technique. Due to the availability of annual observations of the trust-alternative variables, this paper is able to find better results as compared to estimation using generalized trust data.

scholarly journals Is export-led growth hypothesis still valid for sub-Saharan African countries? New evidence from panel data analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Stage Of Development ◽  
Panel Granger Causality ◽  
Causality Model ◽  
Ssa Countries

PurposeThis study examines the causal relationship between exports and economic growth in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries during the period 1980 to 2017. The study also examines whether the causality between these two macroeconomic variables depends on the countries' stage of development as proxied by their per capita income.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses a panel cointegration test and panel Granger-causality model to examine the link between exports and growth. The study also incorporates external debt as an intermittent variable in a bivariate setting between exports and economic growth, thereby creating a dynamic multivariate panel Granger-causality model.FindingsAlthough the study found the existence of a long-run relationship between exports and economic growth, the study failed to find any export-led growth response in both low-income and middle-income countries. Instead, the study found evidence of a bidirectional causality and a neutrality response in middle-income and low-income countries, respectively. The study, therefore, concludes that the benefits of an export-led growth hypothesis may have been oversold, and that the strategy may not be desirable to some low-income developing countries.Practical implicationsThese findings have important policy implications as they indicate that the causality between exports and economic growth in SSA countries varies with the countries' stage of development. Consistent with the contemporary literature, the study cautions low-income SSA countries against over-relying on an export-led growth strategy to achieve a sustained growth path as no causality between exports and economic growth has been found to exist in those countries. Instead, such countries should consider pursuing new growth strategies by building the domestic demand side of their economies alongside their export promotion strategies in order to expand the real sector of their economies. For middle-income countries, the study recommends that both export promotion strategies and pro-growth policies should be intensified as economic growth and exports have been found to reinforce each other in those countries.Originality/valueUnlike the previous studies, the current study disaggregated the full sample of SSA countries into two subsets – one comprising of low-income countries and the other consisting of middle-income countries. In addition, the study uses a multivariate Granger-causality model in order to address the emission-of-variable bias. To our knowledge, this may be the first study of its kind in recent years to examine in detail the causal relationship between exports and economic growth in SSA countries using an ECM-based multivariate panel Granger-causality model.

Slow reform may hurt West African monetary bloc's rise

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Integration ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
West African ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Economic And Monetary Union ◽  
The West ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Income Status ◽  
Sub Saharan

Subject Prospects for the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) Significance Economic growth in WAEMU reached 6.1% in 2016, outperforming peer regional blocs including its closest rival, the East Africa Community (EAC), which (excluding South Sudan) grew by 5.8%. However, business environment reforms lag those of the rest of sub-Saharan Africa, which could dampen longer-term growth. Impacts Despite recent progress, growth rates need to increase above 7% for at least 20 years for the zone to reach middle-income status. The structural depreciation of Nigeria's naira could erode regional integration as importing within the zone becomes more expensive. Security fears in Ivory Coast could shift investors' focus to Senegal -- despite Yamoussoukro's recent eurobond success.

Ethiopia’s vaunted economic success may falter

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Policy Support ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Investments ◽  
Income Status ◽  
Rapid Economic Growth ◽  
Official Policy ◽  
Slow Progress ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Ethiopia's economic outlook Significance The IMF in January raised its assessment of Ethiopia’s risk of external debt distress from ‘moderate’ to ‘high’ after exports failed to take off as anticipated, and foreign currency reserves fell further below prudential levels. This could tarnish the image of the country’s economic miracle, symbolised by its sustained rapid economic growth and ability to attract comparatively high levels of foreign direct investment (FDI) into non-resource sectors. Operationally, the downgrade reduces the scope for further commercial borrowing and could dampen momentum by curtailing public investments over the medium term without official policy support. Impacts Ethiopia's scheduled WTO accession in November could be derailed by slow progress in liberalising the economy. Ethiopia’s hitherto resilient sovereign ratings may come under pressure in the wake of the debt reclassification. With per capita GDP at 707 dollars and growth slowing, the country may struggle to reach lower middle-income status by 2025.

Rwandan agriculture strategy unlikely to be replicated

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
National Level ◽  
National Development ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Vision 2020 ◽  
East African ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East African Community ◽  
Income Status

Subject Rwandan agricultural interventions. Significance On May 15, the IMF completed its latest Article IV consultation and review with Kigali, predicting a return to growth of 6.2% per annum. According to the Fund, the main driver of this rebound is the agricultural sector, which is rapidly recovering from a severe drought in 2015-16. President Paul Kagame’s ambitious national development plan, Vision 2020, aims for the country to achieve middle income status by 2025, with transformation of the agricultural sector crucial to this. Impacts The government’s drought response will boost Kagame’s popularity among poorer rural households. However, if Kagame steps down after his next term in office, this could create disorder across many sectors. National-level disaster responses will prove more effective than their East African Community (EAC) equivalent.

scholarly journals The major innovations of Chinese economic development theories in the new era

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yinxing Hong
Keyword(s):  
Political Economy ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Low Income ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
Development Theory ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Development Stages ◽  
Starting Point

Purpose At present, the Chinese economy has entered the “new normal” phase with the transformation of development stages from the low-income to the middle-income ones. Accordingly, there appear a series of innovations in development theories. Innovations involve creative destructions. Therefore, innovative development theories at the present stage either deny the prevailing principles of development economics, or deny the theories that once effectively guided development at the low-income stage, or even sublate some of the development polices which were propelled and proved effective at the beginning of the reform and opening-up. The fundamental reason is that, as the development stages evolve, there occur new development tasks, new periodical characteristics and new laws of development. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach Any development theory from abroad will find it difficult to correctly guide and clarify development problems in a socialist country, such as the huge population and the extreme imbalance between the urban and the rural and among regional developments. Findings In conclusion, China, as a large world economy, has made innovations in its economic development theory, which indicates that it intends to perfect itself rather than seek hegemony. As the world’s second largest economy, China should adapt to the transformation and further free people’s minds instead of adhering to the old patterns of thinking. It should think over the path of development for a great world economy from the historical starting point of a large world economy and find development strategies to transform itself from a large economy to a great economy, so as to realize the dream of the Chinese nation to build a powerful country. Originality/value Only political economy studies both the relations of production and the productive forces, and only a theory combining both can correctly guide China’s economic development, which especially needs to be promoted by taking advantage of socialist economic system. Therefore, the first and foremost principle for a socialist political economy with Chinese characteristics is to insist on liberating and developing productive forces.

Achieving SDG target 8.1 (sustain economic growth) in developing countries: how aid for trade policy and regulations can assist?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chandan Kumar Roy ◽  
Huang Xiaoling ◽  
Banna Banik
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Trade Policy ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Aid For Trade ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth

Purpose This study aims to examine how aid for trade policy and regulations (AfTPR) contribute to achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 8.1 (sustain per capita economic growth) and whether the effectiveness of AfTPR is conditional to the stable political environment. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses a widely accepted endogenous growth framework and applies panel data fixed effects and two-step difference and system generalized method of moments estimation strategies on panel data of 50 developing countries over 2005–2017. Findings The findings of the study confirm that aid to trade policy promotes sustainable economic growth in developing countries, but this category of development assistance is only effective and significant for low and lower middle-income (LLMI) economies. The positive and significant effect of AfTPR in upper middle-income countries is conditional to their level of political stability. Under a stable political situation, the positive effect of AfTPR on sustainable growth remains almost same for the LLMI countries, whereas for the upper middle-income countries this growth effect reached almost double. Research limitations/implications International trade is considered as a driver for inclusive and sustainable economic growth, whereas aid for trade is acknowledged for its prospective contribution toward achieving these goals. The findings have dominant policy implications for the international development organizations and donors, which recommend that it is more desirable to transmit aid toward developing and implementing trade policy and regulations as per capita economic growth improves in the aid recipient countries. Originality/value According to the authors’ knowledge, no prior study empirically analyzes the effect of AfTPRs on SDG target 8.1.

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