Early-stage cost estimation model for power generation project with limited historical data

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jin Gang Lee ◽  
Hyun-Soo Lee ◽  
Moonseo Park ◽  
JoonOh Seo
Keyword(s):  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Cost Estimation ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Project Planning ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Ensemble Modeling ◽  
Cost Estimating ◽  
Cost Estimates ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Project Data

PurposeReliable conceptual cost estimation of large-scale construction projects is critical for successful project planning and execution. For addressing the limited data availability in conceptual cost estimation, this study proposes an enhanced ANN-based cost estimating model that incorporates artificial neural networks, ensemble modeling and a factor analysis approach.Design/methodology/approachIn the ANN-based conceptual cost estimating model, the ensemble modeling component enhances training, and thus, improves its predictive accuracy and stability when project data quantity is low; and the factor analysis component finds the optimal input for an estimating model, rendering explanations of project data more descriptive.FindingsOn the basis of the results of experiments, it can be concluded that ensemble modeling and FAMD (Factor Analysis of Mixed Data) are both conjointly capable of improving the accuracy of conceptual cost estimates. The ANN model version combining bootstrap aggregation and FAMD improved estimation accuracy and reliability despite these very low project sample sizes.Research limitations/implicationsThe generalizability of the findings is hard to justify since it is difficult to collect cost data of construction projects comprehensively. But this difficulty means that our proposed approaches and findings can provide more accurate and stable conceptual cost forecasting in the early stages of project development.Originality/valueFrom the perspective of this research, previous uses of past-project data can be deemed to have underutilized that information, and this study has highlighted that — even when limited in quantity — past-project data can and should be utilized effectively in the generation of conceptual cost estimates.

Examining barriers for the utilization of non-traditional cost estimating models in developing countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 814-827
Author(s):  
Bismark Agyekum ◽  
Ernest Kissi ◽  
Daniel Yamoah Agyemang ◽  
Edward Badu
Keyword(s):  
Cost Estimation ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Cost Models ◽  
Cost Estimating ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
Building Projects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Expert’S Opinion ◽  
Cost Estimation Model

Purpose Cost estimation model serves as a framework for forecasting the probable cost of proposed construction projects. It can be classified either as traditional or non-traditional depending on the cost variables formulation. However, in the building industry, quantity surveyors traditionally estimate the initial cost of building projects using the traditional models, which have been criticized overtime for its inaccuracies. This paper therefore aims to examine barriers for the utilization of non-traditional cost estimating models. Design/methodology/approach By using a questionnaire survey, respondents were invited to rate their level of agreement on 23 barriers identified from literature and interview (expert’s opinion). Findings Based on factor analysis inefficient techniques, perceptions of model techniques, unavailability of cost data and lack of understanding and unstable economic conditions were identified as barriers to the utilization of non-traditional cost estimating models. Practical/implications Findings demonstrate that there is need for quantity surveyors to get adapted to utilization of non-traditional cost models which offers better accuracies than the traditional approaches in their quest to improve their professional practices. Originality/value This study demonstrates that there are barriers to the utilization of non-traditional cost estimating models in the Ghanaian construction industry, as evident of this will help in policy formulation for the improvement cost estimating practices.

Factors affecting the delivery of optimum health and safety on construction projects during the covid-19 pandemic in Zimbabwe

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Benviolent Chigara ◽  
Tirivavi Moyo
Keyword(s):  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Health And Safety ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Related Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Related Risk ◽  
Monitoring And Enforcement

Purpose The purpose of this study was to investigate the perceptions of construction professionals relative to factors that affect the delivery of optimum health and safety (H&S) on construction projects during the COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach The study adopted a quantitative design which entailed the distribution of a web-based questionnaire among construction professionals, namely, architects, construction/project managers, engineers, H&S managers and quantity surveyors working for contractors and construction consultants in Zimbabwe. The data were analysed with descriptive and inferential statistics. Factor analysis was used to reveal interrelated significant sets of factors affecting the delivery of optimum H&S. Findings Factor analysis revealed nine components/factors: change and innovation-related, monitoring and enforcement-related, production-related, access to information and health service-related, on-site facilities and welfare-related, risk assessment and mitigation-related, job security and funding-related, cost-related and COVID-19 risk perception-related factors as the significant factors affecting the delivery of optimum H&S during the COVID-19 pandemic in Zimbabwe. Research limitations/implications The results highlighted the need for social dialogue among construction stakeholders to support initiatives that will enhance the delivery of H&S on construction projects. Construction stakeholders may find the results useful in highlighting the areas that need improvement to protect workers’ H&S during the pandemic. However, the small sample limits the generalisability of the results to construction sectors in other regions. Originality/value The study investigated factors affecting the delivery of optimum H&S during the COVID-19 to inform interventions to enhance H&S.

Digitalization of Decommissioning Cost Estimation Process for Upstream Assets

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. B. C. Lah
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cost Estimation ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Process Efficiency ◽  
Cost Estimating ◽  
Work Processes ◽  
Floating Structure ◽  
Cost Estimates ◽  
Estimation Process

The paper provides an insight on how has addressed PETRONAS has addressed its pain points on limited resources, simplified work processes with reliable auditable tool for decision making through digitalization. PETRONAS is currently performing its annual budgetary assessment for all Malaysia assets which consist of more than 300 platforms with close to 600 pipelines and other assets eg. terminals, subsea systems & floating structure. With limited timeline and resources to establish decommissioning cost, the consistency and quality is vital for estimating work to improvise process efficiency and cost effective via digitalization. The process improvement requirements are pooled and possible digitalization takeovers are studied in detail via stakeholder engagements, technical workshops and lessons learned analysis. The method is solely based on digitalization of bottoms-up cost estimation process which has been embedded in a single tool to fix and standardize all technical and commercial basis. The tool has been developed with taking into all technical and commercial aspects in decommissioning offshore assets. Twelve base options which include reefing options, cutting methodologies, cost sharing execution strategies have been embedded in the tool. Based on the digital approach, it has been proven that cost estimation process duration has been optimized up to 60% for all Class V- and Class IV decommissioning cost estimates which is equivalent to 3,600 manhours for 1000 facilities. Furthermore, consistency in cost estimation approach and robustness in developing cost estimates for multiple options for decision making has been guaranteed with the centralization cost estimating approach via digital platform. Centralized digital depository of the technical inputs, basis and assumptions are also crucial to ensure this essential data could be retrieved in the future as most decommissioning projects would only be executed during the tail end of a facility’s production life.

Integrating fuzzy case-based reasoning, parametric and feature-based cost estimation methods for machining process

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fentahun Moges Kasie ◽  
Glen Bright
Keyword(s):  
Cost Estimation ◽  
Intelligent System ◽  
Machining Process ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Case Based Reasoning ◽  
Cost Estimates ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Estimation Techniques ◽  
Feature Based ◽  
Case Based

Purpose This paper aims to propose an intelligent system that serves as a cost estimator when new part orders are received from customers. Design/methodology/approach The methodologies applied in this study were case-based reasoning (CBR), analytic hierarchy process, rule-based reasoning and fuzzy set theory for case retrieval. The retrieved cases were revised using parametric and feature-based cost estimation techniques. Cases were represented using an object-oriented (OO) approach to characterize them in n-dimensional Euclidean vector space. Findings The proposed cost estimator retrieves historical cases that have the most similar cost estimates to the current new orders. Further, it revises the retrieved cost estimates based on attribute differences between new and retrieved cases using parametric and feature-based cost estimation techniques. Research limitations/implications The proposed system was illustrated using a numerical example by considering different lathe machine operations in a computer-based laboratory environment; however, its applicability was not validated in industrial situations. Originality/value Different intelligent methods were proposed in the past; however, the combination of fuzzy CBR, parametric and feature-oriented methods was not addressed in product cost estimation problems.

scholarly journals An Effective Approach to Input Variable Selection for Preliminary Cost Estimation of Construction Projects

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meseret Getnet Meharie ◽  
Zachary C. Abiero Gariy ◽  
Raphael Ngumbau Ndisya Mutuku ◽  
Wubshet Jekale Mengesha
Keyword(s):  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Variable Selection ◽  
Cost Estimation ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Selection Process ◽  
Fuzzy Ahp ◽  
Geometric Mean ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Input Variables

Accurate cost estimates are vital to the effective realisation of construction projects. Extended knowledge, wide-ranging information, substantial expertise, and continuous improvement are required to attain accurate cost estimation. Cost estimation at the preliminary phase of the project is always a challenge as only limited information is available. Hence, rational selection of input variables for preliminary cost estimation could be imperative. A systematic input variable selection approach for preliminary estimating using an integrated methodology of factor analysis and fuzzy AHP is presented in this paper. First, the factor analysis is used to classify and reduce the input variables and their variable coefficients are determined. Second, fuzzy AHP based on the geometric mean method is employed to determine the weights of input variables in a fuzzy environment where the subjectivity and vagueness are handled with natural language expressions parameterized by triangular fuzzy numbers. Then, the input variables are suggested to be selected starting with those having high coefficient and high importance weight. A set of three variables, one from each group, can be added to the estimating model at a time so that the problem of collinearity can vanish and good accuracy of the estimate can be ensured. The proposed approach enables cost estimators to better understand the complete input variable selection process at the early stage of project development and provide a more accurate, rational, and systematic decision support tool.

Development of waste occurrence level indicator in Vietnam construction industry

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (6) ◽  
pp. 715-731 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ha Duy Khanh ◽  
Soo Yong Kim
Keyword(s):  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Construction Industry ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Quantitative Information ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Level Indicator ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Significant Difference

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the waste occurrence level in the construction industry. It includes: first, identifying the mean value of frequency of waste occurrence according to respondents’ characteristics; second, identifying the main predictive factors for waste occurrence based on latent relationships between initial waste factors; and third, identifying the waste occurrence-level indicator (WOLI) for the construction industry based on the main waste measurement factors. Design/methodology/approach – A total of 19 waste factors were sorted from the literature review. A structured questionnaire was adopted to carry out the survey. The respondents are professionals who have much experience in construction and management of project. Shapiro-Wilk test of normality, Levene’s test, ANOVA test, and factor analysis technique were used to analyze the collected data. Findings – Frequency of waste occurrence in construction projects is quite high. There was no statistically and practically significant difference in means for waste occurrence between selected population categories. Based on factor analysis technique, there were five principal components extracted with 56.7 percent of total variance. The WOLI in the construction industry was found as 61.55 per the scale of 100. Research limitations/implications – The non-probability sampling was applied to collect data because of several certain limitations and difficulties. The number of data sets is relatively small. This study has only examined the frequency of waste occurrence without quantitative information. Practical implications – This is another study of waste factors in the construction industry, which is different from traditional waste studies. Originality/value – The contribution of this study to the practical project management is that a proposed evaluation sheet for WOLI could be applied for any construction firm.

scholarly journals An Analysis of Construction Failure Factors to Stakeholder Coordinating Performance in the Finishing Phase of High-Rise Building Projects

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Viet T. Nguyen ◽  
Sy T. Do ◽  
Nhat M. Vo ◽  
Thu A. Nguyen ◽  
Son V. H. Pham
Keyword(s):  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Project Planning ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Building Projects ◽  
High Rise ◽  
High Rise Building ◽  
Building Project ◽  
Construction Works ◽  
Failure Factors

A poorly coordinated performance among stakeholders in the finishing phase can impair the performance of a high-rise building project. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze construction failure factors (CFFs) to stakeholder coordinating performance (SCP) in the finishing phase of high-rise building projects and to uncover their underlying relationships. CFFs to SCP in construction projects, especially in the finishing phase of high-rise building projects, have not yet been discovered. The study identified 30 CFFs to the SCP and ranked them according to the perspective of the stakeholders, including owners/consultants and contractors/subcontractors. Additionally, four factors of the CFFs, namely, traditional adversarial relationship, poor project planning and organization, incompetent parties, and delays of parties toward construction works were extracted by the factor analysis method. This study fills the gap in knowledge related to the coordination performance in construction projects. The findings could help stakeholders to enhance their coordinating performance in high-rise building projects.

Underlying causes and mitigation measures of delays in construction projects

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 165-181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amílcar Arantes ◽  
Luís Miguel D.F. Ferreira
Keyword(s):  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Project Management ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Management Skills ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Importance Index ◽  
Underlying Causes ◽  
Causes Of Delays

Purpose The purpose of this study is to contribute to the theory and practice of project management in the construction industry by identifying the primary causes and extracting the underlying causes of construction delays and providing recommendations on delay mitigation measures. Design/methodology/approach AA survey was used to identify the importance of 47 causes of delays. The relative importance index was used to rank them, factor analysis was applied to extract the underlying causes and focus group interviews were used for discussion and development of mitigation measures. Findings Six of the ten most important causes are in the top ten universal delays in construction projects. Factor analysis revealed six underlying causes: improper planning, poor consultant performance, inefficient site management, owner influence, bureaucracy and sub-standard contracts. Practical implications The owner/sponsor/client must have adequate engineering and project management skills to be able to evaluate proposals and contractors more accurately, economically and technically. The bidding and contract award process should focus on the most economically advantageous proposal and contracts should provide for mechanisms for managing risks while executing projects. Contractors should select reliable, high-quality subcontractors and suppliers and should have competent site managers. Originality/value This work expands and improves the understanding of the causes of delays in construction projects by providing an empirical study of the causes of delays and respective mitigation measures in Portugal.

Key training practice indicators for optimal site supervisors’ utilisation in construction firms

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Irewolede Aina Ijaola ◽  
Godwin Iroroakpo Idoro ◽  
Michael Gbolagade Oladokun
Keyword(s):  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Cross Sectional Survey ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Construction Firms ◽  
Site Supervisors ◽  
Optimal Site ◽  
Training Practice

Purpose The skills and knowledge of site supervisors play an important role in the outcome of construction projects. Evidence gleaned from the literature indicates that poor performance of construction projects remains a central concern for stakeholders in the construction sector. This suggests that the site supervisor’s training is important in the construction project outcomes. Various training programmes are available for site supervisors, yet construction firms are not satisfied with them. The purpose of this study is to determine the key training practice indicators for optimal site supervisor’s usage in construction firms. Design/methodology/approach This study adopts a cross-sectional survey research design. In the approach, exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis were used to determine the key training practice indicators for site supervisors. Data were collected from 218 construction site supervisors using a questionnaire. Findings Findings show that training practices are a multidimensional concept consisting of training needs assessment, training delivery, training evaluation and transfer. From the 50 training practice variables, this study establishes 12 key training practice indicators for training site supervisors in construction firms. Research limitations/implications Future research should adopt a longitudinal survey for examining training practices in construction firms. Practical implications The identified key training indicators can inform the policies and practices used in the training of site supervisors. Originality/value This study contributes to knowledge by establishing 12 significant training practice indicators for optimal site supervisors’ usage in construction firms.

Cost estimates in designing objects at the modern stage of civil shipbuilding development in Russia: Problems and prospects

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (10) ◽  
pp. 2314-2327
Author(s):  
Vasilii S. DOSIKOV ◽  
Viktor A. KALMYKOV
Keyword(s):  
Cost Estimation ◽  
Information Technologies ◽  
Present Stage ◽  
Cost Estimating ◽  
Cost Estimates ◽  
Scientific Methods ◽  
General Scientific ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Cost Of Construction

Subject. The article addresses cost estimation of designed facilities construction in domestic civil shipbuilding. Objectives. The purpose is to consider the key problems and contradictions in the cost estimating process in this area. Methods. In the study, I apply general scientific methods. Results. The paper presents the analysis of major problems and contradictions in estimating the cost of construction of designed objects of domestic civil shipbuilding at the present stage of its development. I formulate my proposals for improving the system of industry pricing. Conclusions. The paper underpins the need to modernize industry pricing through the introduction of advanced information technologies.

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