Analyzing prediction market trading behaviour to select Delphi-experts

foresight ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 364-374 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Kloker ◽  
Frederik Klatt ◽  
Jan Höffer ◽  
Christof Weinhardt
Keyword(s):  
Delphi Study ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Prediction Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Informed Traders ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Delphi Studies ◽  
Selection Of ◽  
Trading Behaviour

Purpose The selection of experts for Delphi studies is crucial for the quality of the forecast results and the information taken into account. In the past, this has usually been done by selecting participants according to their reputation, although this approach is questionable in terms of reaching the most knowledgeable participants having new, relevant and valid information. In this context, this paper aims to propose to operate a prediction market alongside Delphi studies and select participants based on their trading behaviour in the market for the Delphi study. Design/methodology/approach Based on more than three years of historical prediction market trading data, the authors verify attributes that indicate insightful trades, as previously discussed in the finance literature, by using regression and classification trees. Findings The paper contributes attributes of trading behaviour that are theoretically derived from literature and potentially related to informed traders. These are tested and evaluated on historical prediction market data. Especially, the trading volume, the spread at the moment of trading and the market maker attribute seem to predict informed traders the best. Originality/value Algorithms based on identified attributes can be used to objectify the selection of experts for Delphi studies with potential gains in terms of the amount of information considered.

Short selling and dark pool volume

2020 ◽  
Vol 46 (10) ◽  
pp. 1263-1282
Author(s):  
Thomas Jason Boulton ◽  
Marcus V. Braga-Alves
Keyword(s):  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Financial Industry ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Short Sellers ◽  
Informed Traders ◽  
Dark Pool ◽  
Short Interest ◽  
Dark Pools

PurposePrior research posits that traders with short-lived information favor lit exchanges over dark pools due to execution certainty. This paper aims to focus on the relation between informed trading based on firm fundamentals and dark pool volume because the preferred venue for traders with longer-lived information is less certain.Design/methodology/approachThe authors examine the effect of short interest, a proxy for informed traders with long-lived information, on dark pool volume using fixed effects, first difference and instrumental variable approaches. They examine the effect of dark pools on the profitability of long-lived information using market- and characteristic-adjusted returns.FindingsThe proportion of trading volume executed in dark pools is positively correlated with short interest. This result is stronger for stocks that suffer from greater uncertainty and stocks targeted by transient institutional investors. Short sellers profit substantially from their information as subsequent returns are lower for heavily shorted stocks with greater dark pool volume.Research limitations/implicationsIn 2014, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority began making trading data available for dark pools. Before that, only limited information was publicly available. The authors use that data to shed more light on dark pools activity.Practical implicationsThe evidence presented in the paper helps inform the current discussion about the role and regulation of dark pools.Originality/valueThis is the first study to show that informed traders with long-lived information favor dark pools due to their opacity and the possibility of price improvement.

Human resources ranking in a cloud-based knowledge sharing framework using the quality control criteria

Kybernetes ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 46 (5) ◽  
pp. 876-892 ◽  
Author(s):  
Parisa Fouladi ◽  
Nima Jafari Navimipour
Keyword(s):  
Quality Control ◽  
Human Resources ◽  
Hierarchical Structure ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Quality Control Criteria ◽  
Control Criteria ◽  
Selection Of

Purpose This paper aims to propose a new method for evaluating the quality and prioritizing of the human resources (HRs) based on trust, reputation, agility, expertise and cost criteria in the expert cloud. To evaluate some quality control (QC) factors, a model based on the SERVQUAL is used. Design/methodology/approach The aim of this paper is to offer a fast and simple method for selecting the HRs by the customers. To achieve this goal, the ranking diagram of different HRs based on the different criteria of QC is provided. By means of this method, the customer can rapidly decide on the selection of the required HRs. By using the proposed method, the scores for various criteria are evaluated. These criteria are used in the ranking of each HR which is obtained based on the evaluation conducted by previous customers and their colleagues. First, customers were asked to select their needed criteria and then by constructing a hierarchical structure, the ranking diagram of different HRs is achieved. Using a ranking system based on evaluating the quality of the model, satisfy the customer needs to be based on the properties of HRs. Also, an analytical hierarchical process-based ranking mechanism is proposed to solve the problem of assigning weights to features for considering the interdependence between them to rank the HRs in the expert cloud. Findings The obtained results showed the applicability of the radar graph using a case study and also numerically obtained results showed that a hierarchical structure increases the quality and speed rating of HR ranking than the previous works. Originality/value The suggested ranking method in this paper allows the optimal selection due to the special needs of any given customer in the expert cloud.

scholarly journals Individual and institutional trading volume around firm-specific announcements

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 422-444 ◽  
Author(s):  
Priyantha Mudalige ◽  
Petko S Kalev ◽  
Huu Nhan Duong
Keyword(s):  
Institutional Investors ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Securities Market ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Order Book ◽  
Volume Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Abnormal Trading Volume ◽  
Trading Behaviour

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the immediate impact of firm-specific announcements on the trading volume of individual and institutional investors on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), during a period when the market becomes fragmented. Design/methodology/approach – This study uses intraday trading volume data in five-minute intervals prior to and after firm-specific announcements to measure individual and institutional abnormal volume. There are 70 such intervals per trading day and 254 trading days in the sample period. The first 10 minutes of trading (from 10.00 to 10.10 a.m.) is excluded to avoid the effect of opening auction and to ensure consistency in the “starting time” for all stocks. The volume transacted during five-minute intervals is aggregated and attributed to individual or institutional investors using Broker IDs. Findings – Institutional investors exhibit abnormal trading volume before and after announcements. However, individual investors indicate abnormal trading volume only after announcements. Consistent with outcomes expected from a dividend washing strategy, abnormal trading volume around dividend announcements is statistically insignificant. Both individual and institutional investors’ buy volumes are higher than sell volumes before and after scheduled and unscheduled announcements. Research limitations/implications – The study is Australian focused, but the results are applicable to other limit order book markets of similar design. Practical implications – The results add to the understanding of individual and institutional investors’ trading behaviour around firm-specific announcements in a securities market with continuous disclosure. Social implications – The results add to the understanding of individual and institutional investors’ trading behaviour around firm-specific announcements in a securities market with continuous disclosure. Originality/value – These results will help regulators to design markets that are less predatory on individual investors.

scholarly journals Guidance on Conducting and REporting DElphi Studies (CREDES) in palliative care: Recommendations based on a methodological systematic review

2017 ◽  
Vol 31 (8) ◽  
pp. 684-706 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saskia Jünger ◽  
Sheila A Payne ◽  
Jenny Brine ◽  
Lukas Radbruch ◽  
Sarah G Brearley
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Palliative Care ◽  
Delphi Study ◽  
Delphi Technique ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Quality Of Reporting ◽  
Reporting Standard ◽  
Delphi Studies

Background: The Delphi technique is widely used for the development of guidance in palliative care, having impact on decisions with relevance for patient care. Aim: To systematically examine the application of the Delphi technique for the development of best practice guidelines in palliative care. Design: A methodological systematic review was undertaken using the databases PubMed, CINAHL, Web of Science, Academic Search Complete and EMBASE. Data sources: Original articles (English language) were included when reporting on empirical studies that had used the Delphi technique to develop guidance for good clinical practice in palliative care. Data extraction included a quality appraisal on the rigour in conduct of the studies and the quality of reporting. Results: A total of 30 empirical studies (1997–2015) were considered for full-text analysis. Considerable differences were identified regarding the rigour of the design and the reporting of essential process and outcome parameters. Furthermore, discrepancies regarding the use of terms for describing the method were observed, for example, concerning the understanding of a ‘round’ or a ‘modified Delphi study’. Conclusion: Substantial variation was found concerning the quality of the study conduct and the transparency of reporting of Delphi studies used for the development of best practice guidance in palliative care. Since credibility of the resulting recommendations depends on the rigorous use of the Delphi technique, there is a need for consistency and quality both in the conduct and reporting of studies. To allow a critical appraisal of the methodology and the resulting guidance, a reporting standard for Conducting and REporting of DElphi Studies (CREDES) is proposed.

scholarly journals The Evolution of Quality of Life Assessment and Use in Dermatology

Dermatology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 235 (3) ◽  
pp. 167-174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavel V. Chernyshov
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Skin Diseases ◽  
Life Quality ◽  
Life Assessment ◽  
Core Outcome Sets ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Development And Validation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Selection Of

The creation of the Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI) questionnaire facilitated many studies on the impact of skin diseases on patients’ quality of life (QoL). Many national and international guidelines recommend QoL assessment in dermatology, and some of them contain detailed recommendations on treatment goals and changes of treatment approaches based on DLQI score banding and minimal clinically important difference. The methodology of QoL in strument development and validation is constantly becoming more rigorous. Initiatives on selection of core outcome sets for skin diseases are focused on clinical trials but may also be beneficial for clinicians. There are various benefits of using QoL information in clinical practice, but experience of this is very limited at the moment. QoL assessment in dermatology is a rapidly developing field with a gradual shift from theory to practice.

scholarly journals Selection of Sport- and Racehorses

2005 ◽  
pp. 3-10
Author(s):  
Sándor Mihók
Keyword(s):  
High Performance ◽  
Decisive Role ◽  
Active Role ◽  
The Body ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Human Needs ◽  
Equestrian Sports ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Selection Of

The utilisation of the horse has changed from time to time in response to human needs. For a few decades, it has been serving in several equestrian sports more intensively. It has also been proved that the standards for this kind of performance cannot be established in the way certain characteristics, such as the weight gain or milk production of other animal breeds can. Breeding horses for sporting comprises highly complex selection criteria.Some of these (e.g. external features, temperament, manageability and intelligence) do not put the breeder in a difficult position, but finding the traits that establishes the safety of sporting achievements poses a genetic problem.The performance of a horse for sports is a highly complex feature, which cannot easily be assessed or put down in figures. In addition, man plays a decisive role in shaping all kinds of performance of a horse at any given time by not only creating conditions for a better performance, but also by playing an active role in increasing it.The performance of the horse is mostly defined by its general aptitude to movement, ie., the regularity, clear rhythm and springiness of basic types of strides, as well as the ability to move in a naturally balanced way. Training and riding principles are based on these traits. These two together will determine about 70% of the value of the horse and its adequacy for high performance equestrian sports. In order to avoid subjectivity in determining the above variables and to increase the degree of objectivity, competent expert teams (trainers, judges, other riders) are employed to form an opinion on an individual animal.Assessing horse performance outside races does not seem to be efficient, as owing to the dominant effects of the environment, the indicator of inheritability is hardly above 0.1.Free jumping is an especially appropriate means for assessing a horse’s readiness and ability to move in an environment free of disturbing factors. In free jumping, it is especially important to judge the style of the jump. The first phase of jumping – as a sequence of movements – lasts from the moment the fore-feet touch the ground until the moment the hind-feet push off, while the second phase lasts from this moment until touching the ground. The most important task in the first phase is to make the angle of the dip of the body by the supporting fore-feet that is necessary for the jump. The quality of the jump is determined by the jumping and adequately expanded hind-legs. The intensity of pushing off and jumping done by the hind-legs can be inferred, and differences between individuals can be discerned from the shaping of the curve by the hocks and the paths of the pasterns in relation to the withers.

“Effect of milk thistle addition (Silybum Marianum L.) on marinated herring (Clupea Harengus L.) meat”

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrzej Ochrem ◽  
Dominika Kułaj ◽  
Joanna Pokorska ◽  
Justyna Żychlińska-Buczek ◽  
Piotr Zapletal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fatty Acids ◽  
Peroxide Value ◽  
Thiobarbituric Acid ◽  
Clupea Harengus ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Milk Thistle ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fatty Acids Profile ◽  
The Moment

PurposeThe aim of the study was to analyse the quality changes in marinated herring meat depending on the moment of adding milk thistle.Design/methodology/approachOne control (C) and two experimental groups were investigated: MH (milk thistle added to a marinade solution) and FH (fillets rubbed with milk thistle before marination). The basic chemical composition, the meat colour, heavy metals concentration, fatty acids profile, quality of lipids and antioxidant capacity were determined.FindingsThe occurrence of Fe, Mn, Cu and Zn was higher in the experimental group than in the control group throughout the marinating process. The peroxide value was higher from the first day in the control group than in the experimental groups. On the last day of the study, the peroxide value in the control group exceeded the maximum acceptable value. The highest level of Thiobarbituric Acid Reactive Substances was determined in the control group on the first day, and the lowest in the FH group. On the first day, the highest percentage of DPPH (2,2-Diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl) radical quenching was recorded in the FH group.Originality/valueThe results are the first to find that the addition of milk thistle to herring fillets in marinating process maintains or even improves the quality of the marinades. The process of previously coating the fillets in milk thistle and then marinating achieves a lower peroxide value, higher content of polyunsaturated fatty acids and a higher content of elements such as iron and manganese, which are very valuable for human health.

Basics and applications of rapid prototyping medical models

2014 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 256-267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sushant Negi ◽  
Suresh Dhiman ◽  
Rajesh Kumar Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Rapid Prototyping ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Medical Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Prosthetic Implants ◽  
Medical Sector ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Selection Of

Purpose – This study aims to provide an overview of rapid prototyping (RP) and shows the potential of this technology in the field of medicine as reported in various journals and proceedings. This review article also reports three case studies from open literature where RP and associated technology have been successfully implemented in the medical field. Design/methodology/approach – Key publications from the past two decades have been reviewed. Findings – This study concludes that use of RP-built medical model facilitates the three-dimensional visualization of anatomical part, improves the quality of preoperative planning and assists in the selection of optimal surgical approach and prosthetic implants. Additionally, this technology makes the previously manual operations much faster, accurate and cheaper. The outcome based on literature review and three case studies strongly suggests that RP technology might become part of a standard protocol in the medical sector in the near future. Originality/value – The article is beneficial to study the influence of RP and associated technology in the field of medicine.

scholarly journals A comparative analysis on water quality in an urban micro watershed

2017 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 566-578 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen Tavares Zambrano ◽  
Cristiano Poleto ◽  
Jefferson Nascimento Oliveira
Keyword(s):  
Water Quality ◽  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Quality Parameters ◽  
Quality Data ◽  
Water Quality Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Quality Water ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
Selection Of

Purpose This study presents a comparative analysis of water quality data in an urban micro watershed to study the magnitude of impacts on the water quality parameters over the last decade. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the degree of deterioration using the water quality index. Design/methodology/approach Rapid urban growth without proper land use and occupation planning results in the overload of urban water resources. Therefore, a literature review was conducted on the research subject published in the dissertation databases of the Engineering Faculty of Ilha Solteira, which resulted in the selection of two dissertations on water quality in the Ipê Stream, Ilha Solteira – SP, Brazil. The results will be evaluated according to the Brazilian laws and regulations in force. Findings This study shows that pollution and degradation in the stream intensified during the study period, with the most impacted areas within the urban perimeter. Practical implications The increasing impacts underscore the need for efficient measures such as implementation of retention reservoirs, elimination of clandestine sewage connections and restoration of riparian forests. Originality/value This study highlights the need to monitor the water quality of streams in order to establish preventive and mitigating measures to avert the growing environmental impacts and to ensure quality water for future generations.

Teaching in the moment: educational experience in the age of tomorrow

2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 170-180
Author(s):  
Christy McConnell Moroye ◽  
P. Bruce Uhrmacher
Keyword(s):  
College Readiness ◽  
Workforce Development ◽  
Ecological Education ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sensory Experiences ◽  
Teachers And Students ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Ecological Mindedness ◽  
The Moment

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine, from a curricular perspective, fresh ideas emanating from the USA that have potential to improve educational settings across the globe. As such, this conceptual undertaking begins by arguing that little attention is being paid to the quality of present experiences in schools and classrooms. Stated differently, there is too much focus on tests, standards, workforce development and college readiness. Subsequently, educators are ignoring present experiences, which in the authors’ view may lead to mis-education rather than education. Design/methodology/approach To assist the authors in understanding this problem, as well as remedying it, they examine John Dewey’s ideas about experience generally and his notions of continuity and interaction in particular. From there, the authors argue that to delve deeply into present experiences, educators might use ideas found in aesthetic and ecological education. They elaborate upon each based on their prior research into a style of aesthetic education called CRISPA, an acronym that stands for connections, risk-taking, sensory experiences, perceptivity and active engagement, and a mode of ecological education called ecological mindedness. Findings The authors suggest that educators use CRISPA. Further, they argue that attention be paid to ecological care, interconnectedness and integrity. Originality/value The authors believe that workforce development and college readiness are important goals, but to achieve these goals, as well as any others deemed important by educators in their local contexts, we must focus on the quality of present experiences for both teachers and students. Only then will we have an education worthy of the appellation.

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