Forecasting key indicators of China's inbound and outbound tourism: optimistic–pessimistic method

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saad Ahmed Javed ◽  
Muhammad Ikram ◽  
Liangyan Tao ◽  
Sifeng Liu
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Travel And Tourism ◽  
The World ◽  
Inbound Tourism ◽  
Grey Number

PurposeTourism industry is a highly complex system surrounded by many uncertainties because of its innumerable connections with other supporting systems. Considering tourism, a grey system, the current study proposes optimistic–pessimistic method (OPM). This technique can aid in improving forecast accuracy of four tourism-related indicators, inbound tourism to China, outbound tourism from China, revenues collected through inbound tourism and expenses incurred on outbound tourism.Design/methodology/approachThe study integrates OPM into EGM and then using the secondary data collected from the World Bank database, predicts the four tourism-related indicators. The mean absolute percentage error steered the performance of the models.FindingsOne of the main contributions of the study lies in its overall evaluation of one of the major travel and tourism countries of the world in light of four crucial indicators. The study highlights, four tourism-related indicators' recent information, contains more valuable information about the future.Originality/valueOPM represents a novel application of concept of whitenization of interval grey number in grey forecasting theory.

scholarly journals The Competitiveness of Travel and Tourism Industry of Sub-Saharan African Countries in the World Market

2021 ◽  
Vol 10(1) (10(1)) ◽  
pp. 131-144
Author(s):  
Mekonnen Bogale ◽  
Muluken Ayalew ◽  
Wubishet Mengesha
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Comparative Advantage ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
World Market ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Travel And Tourism ◽  
The World ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Ssa Countries

The purpose of this study was to investigate competitiveness of Travel and Tourism industry of Sub-Saharan African countries in the world market. The study used Normalized Revealed Comparative Advantage (NRCA) and Relative Trade Advantage (RTA) indexes as a measure of competitiveness based on secondary data from ITC trade database covering between 2000 and 2019. The findings of the study revealed that SSA countries like Mauritius, South Africa, Seychelles and Namibia have competitive T&T industry consistently in the years between 2000 and 2019. However, SSA countries such as Botswana, Tanzania, Senegal, Kenya and Rwanda have competitiveness vary by years. Moreover, South Africa has highest comparative advantage followed by Tanzania and Mauritius. The study provided valuable information to industry leaders, policy makers, business owners and international organizations such as UN and UNESCO to design appropriate strategies and systems aiming to sustain and improve travel and tourism industry competitiveness in SSA countries. It is the first study in applying NRCA and RTA indexes to investigate the competitiveness of T&T Industry in SSA countries. Keywords: Competitiveness; export; import; performance; tourism; travel

Tourism education in France and sustainable development goal 4 (quality education)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hugues Seraphin ◽  
Mamadou Bah ◽  
Alan Fyall ◽  
Vanessa Gowreesunkar
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Quality Education ◽  
University Graduates ◽  
Access To Education ◽  
Sustainable Development Goal ◽  
Development Goal ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Tourism Education

Purpose This study aims to focus on the phenomenon of “over-education” characterized by a discrepancy between education provided and the needs of the economy vis-à-vis employment. The study considers this issue with reference to tourism and courses taught in the field. Specifically, the phenomenon of over-education is investigated with reference to university graduates in tourism and their employability in the sector. Design/methodology/approach The research design draws from secondary data derived from a review of the literature on tourism and education. Findings The findings point to a need to consider aspects of tourism (field of study and discipline) in destination management. This is to avoid discrepancy at macro and micro levels and at a discipline and industry level. This strategy would also help to ensure synergy between tourism education and the needs of the tourism industry as advocated by the Helix model. Originality/value By focussing on over-education, this study shows that Sustainable development goal (SDG) 4, which relates to quality education, may be addressed. The outcome of the study also leads to the conclusion that SDG 4 should be based on not only access to education and school enrolment rates at all levels, particularly for girls, but also the relationship between education and actual employment.

Artificial intelligence (AI) for tourism: an European-based study on successful AI tourism start-ups

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Raffaele Filieri ◽  
Elettra D’Amico ◽  
Alessandro Destefanis ◽  
Emilio Paolucci ◽  
Elisabetta Raguseo
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Language Processing ◽  
Radical Change ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Venture Capitalists ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Travel And Tourism ◽  
Study Experience ◽  
And Mathematics ◽  
Start Ups

Purpose The travel and tourism industry (TTI) could benefit the most from artificial intelligence (AI), which could reshape this industry. This study aims to explore the characteristics of tourism AI start-ups, the AI technological domains financed by Venture Capitalists (VCs), and the phases of the supply chain where the AI domains are in high demand. Design/methodology/approach This study developed a database of the European AI start-ups operating in the TTI from the Crunchbase database (2005–2020). The authors used start-ups as the unit of analysis as they often foster radical change. The authors complemented quantitative and qualitative methods. Findings AI start-ups have been mainly created by male Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics graduates between 2015 and 2017. The number of founders and previous study experience in non-start-up companies was positively related to securing a higher amount of funding. European AI start-ups are concentrated in the capital town of major tourism destinations (France, UK and Spain). The AI technological domains that received more funding from VCs were Learning, Communication and Services (i.e. big data, machine learning and natural language processing), indicating a strong interest in AI solutions enabling marketing automation, segmentation and customisation. Furthermore, VC-backed AI solutions focus on the pre-trip and post-trip. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study focussing on digital entrepreneurship, specifically VC-backed AI start-ups operating in the TTI. The authors apply, for the first time, a mixed-method approach in the study of tourism entrepreneurship.

scholarly journals ROMANIA VERSUS BULGARIA: A SHORT ANALYSIS OF THE COMPETITIVENESS OF SEASIDE TOURISM

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 471-482
Author(s):  
Mihai Costea ◽  
Cristian Valentin Hapenciuc ◽  
Gabriela Arionesei
Keyword(s):  
Historical Perspective ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Communist Regime ◽  
World Economic Forum ◽  
National Authority ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Travel And Tourism ◽  
The World ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Tourism Activity

This research compares tourism competitiveness of two neighboring countries, Romania and Bulgaria, which have many similarities economically as well as from a geopolitical and historical perspective. Despite these similarities, immediately after the 1990s, which marked the fall of the communist regime, the tourism phenomenon in the two countries had divergent evolutions. As the tourism industry in Bulgaria, especially its seaside tourism, underwent unprecedented development, the tourism activity in Romania systematically lost its competitiveness. The factors affecting the appearance and increase of such a difference are of interest to the Romanian seaside tourism. To generate the answer to this problem, we perform a series of comparative analyses with data from the World Economic Forum, in terms of the Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Report (2011-2015), `the National Authority for Tourism of Romania, and the National Institute of Statistics from Romania and Bulgaria. We identified a series of constitutive elements relating to the success of the Bulgarian seaside tourism and a sequence of deficiencies in the strategic and organizational maneuvers of the tourism activity at the Romanian seaside.

The IMF, its mandate and influence in prevention of financial sector abuse

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 987-1011
Author(s):  
Norman Mugarura
Keyword(s):  
World Bank ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
The World ◽  
Secondary Data Sources ◽  
Work Done ◽  
The Imf

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to articulate the mandate of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) not least in promoting a sound legal regulatory environment for markets to operate globally and its inherent challenges. While acknowledging the plausible work done by the IMF in supporting countries to achieve their macro-economic stability, the paper articulates some of its shortcomings as a global institution. It is evident that the post-war climate in which the World Bank and IMF were created has drastically changed – which presupposes that these institutions now need to reposition themselves to reflect on contemporary global challenges accordingly. The author has argued in the past that a robust regulatory system should be devised taking into account the dynamic challenges in the market environment but also to prevent them from happening again. Design/methodology/approach The paper has utilized empirical evidence to evaluate the mandate of the IMF in addressing its dynamic challenges such as the global financial and debt crises in Europe and the USA and prevention of financial sector abuse globally. The IMF is one of the Bretton Woods Institutions charged with the oversight responsibility to enforce policies and enable countries to manage their macro-economic challenges efficiently. Findings The findings demonstrate that the IMF is as relevant and important as it was when it was created in 1945. However, there is a need for intrinsic and structural changes within this institution to continue discharging its mandate in a changed global regulatory landscape. The IMF is still crucial in fostering a fundamental stabilization function to fragile global economies in areas of financial and technical assistance, and developing requisite legal and supervisory infrastructure within fledging member countries. Research limitations/implications The paper was written by analysis of both theoretical and empirical data largely based on secondary data sources. It would have been better to first present the findings in an international conference to solicit wide views and internalize them accordingly. Practical implications While acknowledging the plausible work done by the IMF and its counterpart the World Bank in facilitating global financial markets regulation and prevention of financial sector abuse, as oversight institutions, they need to constantly review their mandate to respond robustly to their dynamic challenges such as the global and debt crises and financial sector abuse. Oversight institutions need to constantly review and adapt their mandate accordingly, if they are to discharge their varied responsibilities efficiently. They cannot stand still in the face of challenges because they will be superseded and kept at a back foot. Social implications Markets and states are embedded in each other, and the way they are regulated is of a significant importance to varied stakeholders and people. Originality/value This paper is one of its kind, is unique in its character and evaluates embedded issues using empirical evidence in a way not done in its context before. Secondary data sources have been evaluated to achieve a thoughtful analysis of the objectives of the paper.

The Israeli travel and tourism industry faces COVID-19: developing guidelines for facilitating and maintaining a nuanced response and recovery to the pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Schmidt ◽  
Alex Altshuler
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Context ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Travel And Tourism ◽  
The Government

Purpose This paper aims to discuss how the tourism industry is contending with the economic and interorganizational challenges wrought by the COVID-19 outbreak and heightened by a lack of communication between the government and local businesses in the state of Israel. The researchers examine the dependency of the tourism industry on the general preparation programs that were developed and are currently being deployed by the relevant national stakeholders and question whether instead, it should use the pandemic as a catalyst for formulating its own nuanced tourism-travel-and-hospitality-oriented strategies and procedures. Design/methodology/approach Applying an ethnographic-based mix-methods research approach, this paper draws on insights from data compiled by fusing existing theoretical and emerging practical knowledge with empirical research (qualitative and quantitative) conducted among numerous relevant macro (governmental/centralized industry) and micro (hotels, travel and tourism operators and service providers) stakeholders as well as potential consumers. Findings It is essential that national and local government bodies form collaborative interorganizational relationships with local stakeholders to jointly activate case-specific hospitality and travel-specific risk mitigation management strategies. Moreover, the pandemic laid bare the tentative and fragile nature of the globalized tourism industry supply and demand chains, a condition that may be remedied via a pivot toward using national or even regional supply chains and goods and service providers. Within Israel, such changes could lead to increased economic benefits that extend beyond the tourism industry to provide certain security-related benefits. Originality/value Relating to idiosyncratic factors relevant to an Israeli cultural context, this paper uses the ethnographic field-borne familiarity of the researchers with the tourism and travel industries in Eilat and the Dead Sea to offer applicable suggestions for leveraging certain industry resources to both meet the demands of the present-day circumstances and cultivate a multifaceted organizational web of macro and micro social, economic and environmental networks so as to foster a more diversified and therefore resilient local tourism and travel economy.

First price sealed-bid auction of the grey game improvement model via double-parameter Bayesian estimation

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fei Deng ◽  
Sifeng Liu ◽  
Zhigeng Fang
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Estimation ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Classical Model ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sealed Bid ◽  
Grey Number ◽  
Improved Model ◽  
Specific Implementation

PurposeThe improved classical model makes it possible that the evaluation strategy has an optimal tendency, which reveals the purpose of this paper is to facilitate the first price sealed-bid auction more in line with the actual situation. To be more specific, there are several merits in the improvement process. On the one hand, the bid-winning probability can be improved for the bidder; on the other hand, the real market value of the subject matter can be more clearly recognized for the employer.Design/methodology/approachBayesian estimation and grey system theory are referenced in this paper, with the use of double-parameter estimation, little historical data and expert experience. Specific implementation steps are as follows: first of all, using the double-parameter Bayesian estimation to correct the actual valuation of the bid matter v, then introducing the threat factor grey number R in the auction model, giving the improving of the optimal grey quotation and grey expectation utility under the two-party game and finally taking the aerospace component procurement as an example, simulating the bidding process of the bidding parties to arrive at the optimal bid strategy.FindingsThe improved model shows that the optimal strategy will change with the threat factor rather than a fixed value. When the threat factor grey number R follows [0.4, 0.6], the optimal quotation strategy will appear, which means quotation is higher than 50% of the bid matter's valuation.Practical implicationsThe improved model proposed in this paper can strengthen the cost control in the Chinese commercial space process and optimize the pricing strategy for the final launch.Originality/valueThe modified model changes the habit that the bidder's valuation of the bid subject to mainly come from experience and to prompt the model for making full use of little historical data on the foundation of the former. It can reduce the subjective judgment error in the game results; finally, the practical cases are simulated in MATLAB at the same time, and the simulation effect is good, so we can get some more realistic conclusions on this basis.

Impact of Information and Communication Readiness on the Tourism Industry

2021 ◽  
pp. 186-201
Author(s):  
Woon Leong Lin ◽  
Bee Lian Song
Keyword(s):  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Policy Effects ◽  
Travel And Tourism ◽  
Economic Progress ◽  
The World ◽  
Information And Communication ◽  
World Economic ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of ICT readiness on the tourism industry and how it leads to growing competitiveness by deploying three-panel data analysis techniques (pooled OLS, fixed effects, dynamic GMM) with 177 nations for the period 2011 to 2019. ICT readiness is gauged using the World Economic Forum's Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Index, whereas tourism's contribution towards economic progress is gauged by overall international traveler arrival. The observations indicate that ICT readiness causes a statistically significant effect on tourism's role in economic progress. Tourism policy effects and guidelines for future works are discussed as well.

Need to pioneer Islamic tourism in tourist resorts in Maldives

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 895-916
Author(s):  
Aishath Muneeza ◽  
Zakariya Mustapha ◽  
Fathimath Nashwa Badeeu ◽  
Aminath Reesha Nafiz
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Legal Framework ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Qualitative Approach ◽  
Financing Structure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
Insight Into

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to formulate ways in which Maldives could pioneer Islamic tourism on a befitting framework and financing structure as a leverage to develop its tourism industry. Design/methodology/approach The research uses qualitative approach whereby primary and empirical data on tourism practices as well as relevant laws and guidelines, issued in Maldives and in other Muslim jurisdictions of the Muslim, are analyzed. Doctrinal approach is used in analyzing secondary data on the subject. Findings The research reveals the potential of Islamic tourism in Maldives as well as the challenges that have constrained its development in the country. Certainty is needed in halal products, services and conducts. Codifying extant Maldives Halal Tourism Standards will establish legal framework for a standard Shariah-compliant tourism industry. Islamic financing structure enables mobilizing required funds and address financing constraints. Practical implications This research presents an insight into establishing and developing Islamic tourism industry in the Maldives. Harmonizing tourism regulations with Shariah shall bring about the required consciousness on Shariah compliance in target tourists and their desires. Private individuals can contribute in mobilizing the much needed Shariah-compliant resources to finance Islamic model resorts befitting an Islamic tourism industry. Originality/value The research puts forward proposal that identifies and recognizes a more viable Islamic financing alternative as well as Shariah-compliant regulations to pioneer the development of Islamic tourism in Maldives. The research recommends how to overcome related challenges helps government understand the proposed strategies for establishing Islamic tourism industry.

Tourism destination competitiveness and tourism performance

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 592-621 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohd Hafiz Hanafiah ◽  
Muhammad Izzat Zulkifly
Keyword(s):  
Structural Equation ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Partial Least Square ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Tourism Destination ◽  
Actual Performance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Travel And Tourism ◽  
Destination Competitiveness

Purpose This study aims to examine the relationships between tourism destination competitiveness (TDC) determinants and tourism performance. This study specifically assessed the soundness of the TDC attributes and evaluated their ability in explaining tourism performance. Design/methodology/approach The Dwyer and Kim’s (2003) destination competitiveness integrated model (IM) was used. Secondary data of 115 nations available from the Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Index (TTCI) and other international reports were also used. The hypothesised relationships were tested via partial least square-structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM). Findings This study confirms that the core resources, complementary condition, globalisation and tourism price significantly explain tourism performance. Results have shown differences in the competitiveness level and actual performance among nations, highlighting specific limitations of the current TDC model and TTCI report reliability. Research limitations/implications Future study could segment the sample base on destinations characteristic and then analyse it based on smaller sub-samples of similar destinations. Moreover, drivers of destination performance in developed and less develop destinations are quite diverse. Practical implications The incorrect competitiveness ranking evaluation will affect inward investment decisions. This study framework enables policymakers to arrive at more informed decisions than merely relying on the original competitiveness rankings. Originality/value The widespread acknowledgment of the importance of competitiveness for a tourism destination's success suggests that there is a crucial need for sound benchmarking of countries’ competitive capabilities. The proposed competitiveness determinants aid the policymakers in identifying the best competitiveness and tourism performance predictors, as well as how to identify crucial factors affecting the rankings.

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