Terrorism risk and optimal policy response: theory and empirics

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 449-468
Author(s):  
Hamid Mohtadi ◽  
Bryan Weber
Keyword(s):  
Real Data ◽  
Calibration Method ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Terrorism Risk ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government ◽  
Suicide Attacks ◽  
Game Theoretic ◽  
Heavy Tailed ◽  
First Time

Purpose The proliferation of terrorism worldwide raises the risk that terrorist strategies could evolve from conventional methods (e.g. suicide attacks) to biological, chemical and even radioactive and nuclear attacks (commonly abbreviated as CBRN) which are potentially much more dangerous. The authors make three contributions toward a better understanding of this risk and how it responds to counterterrorism measures. Design/methodology/approach The authors develop a game that captures the terrorists’ potential strategic substitution between conventional and CBRN-type attacks; the authors calibrate the parameters of the game to real data using a novel calibration method and a partially unique dataset; they estimate the heavy-tailed distribution of attack severity and thus the probability of a successful attack, the underlying effort to launch an attack and the intrinsic difficulty of launching different types of attacks. Findings The authors find that in equilibrium, CBRN attacks, though less likely and more difficult to execute, are more deadly. In the end, the trade-off between, on one hand, the greater difficulty of carrying out a CBRN attack, and on the other, the greater deadliness of such an attack, points to a level of optimal counterterrorism spending by governments that weighs toward defending against CBRN attacks. The authors discuss these results and compare them with the actual level of counterterrorism spending by the US Government. Originality/value The framework of the game allows for substitution between the conventional and CBRN weapon types. These aspects of this paper, together with the unique calibration methodology, and the use of some unique terrorism data for the first time, are what distinguish this work from similar game theoretic papers in this area.

US charges designed to make Russia hacking irrefutable

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Russian State ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government ◽  
Social Media Platforms ◽  
To Come ◽  
High Level ◽  
First Time

Subject The US indictment of Russian intelligence officers. Significance The latest indictment to come out of the investigation led by Special Counsel Robert Mueller is the most striking yet as it targets Russian state actors for the first time. It sets out charges of hacking into Democratic Party networks, stealing more than 50,000 documents and using them for disruptive purposes in the 2016 US presidential election. Despite the considerable level of detail in the evidence offered, the White House has yet to address publicly the issues raised or confronting Russia. Impacts US government, election software providers, parties and social media platforms will face pressure to prepare for the midterm elections. Detailed attribution of cyber interference will likely weaken the notion that perpetrators enjoy a high level of plausible deniability. Hackers will continue to employ 'spearphishing' for its simplicity, success rate and cost-effectiveness.

June summits signal progress on EU-US trade ties

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Taxation ◽  
Gas Pipeline ◽  
Security Technology ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Transatlantic Cooperation ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government ◽  
Nord Stream ◽  
High Level ◽  
Two Sides

Significance The two sides have suspended tariffs arising from their dispute over subsidies to Airbus and Boeing, are working on an international deal on corporate taxation and have established a high-level council to discuss issues at the nexus of security, technology and trade. Impacts A major aim of closer transatlantic cooperation is better coordination of policies with respect to China. Closer transatlantic cooperation over China might soften US opposition to the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. It will be difficult for the US government to pass legislation concerning trade given the Democrats' precarious majority in both houses.

The US battle against brand marketing: circa 1930-1980

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 60-85 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ross D. Petty
Keyword(s):  
Second World War ◽  
World War ◽  
Historical Sources ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Consumer Movement ◽  
Brand Marketing ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Second World

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the debate about brand marketing that occurred as part of the 1930s consumer movement and continued after the Second World War in academic and regulatory circles. Design/methodology/approach This paper presents an historical account of the anti-brand marketing movement using a qualitative approach. It examines both primary and secondary historical sources as well as legal statutes, regulatory agency actions, judicial cases and newspaper and trade journal stories. Findings In response to the rise of brand marketing in the latter 1800s and early 1900s, the USA experienced an anti-brand marketing movement that lasted half a century. The first stage was public as part of the consumer movement but was overshadowed by the product safety and truth-in-advertising concerns. The consumer movement stalled when the USA entered the Second World War, but brand marketing continued to raise questions during the war as the US government attempted to regulate the provisions of goods during the war. After the war, the public accepted brand marketing. Continuing anti-brand marketing criticism was largely confined to academic writings and regulatory activities. Ultimately, many of the stage-two challenges to brand marketing went nowhere, but a few led to regulations that continue today. Originality/value This paper is the first to recognize a two-stage anti-brand marketing movement in the USA from 1929 to 1980 that has left a small but significant modern-day regulatory legacy.

American Libraries and the US Federal Government: an overview of partnerships for enhanced resource access

2015 ◽  
Vol 29 (8) ◽  
pp. 2-6
Author(s):  
Bethany Latham
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Government Agencies ◽  
Government Information ◽  
Digital Collections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government ◽  
Us Federal Government ◽  
Partnership Program

Purpose – This paper aims to explore the US Government Publishing Office’s (GPO) partnership program: what it is, how the GPO defines partnership, the types of institutions that are participating and the resources these institutions are making available through partnership. Design/methodology/approach – This paper reviews the available literature and information from the US GPO on its partnership program, examines the institutions contributing to the program and what those contributions entail, surveys the resources made available through these partnerships and examines how this affects access to government information. Findings – Partnership with the US GPO provides benefits to libraries, museums, government agencies and other entities, increasing discoverability and enhancing access to digital collections of government information and other resources. Originality/value – This paper examines the parameters of the US GPO’s partnership program, why libraries and other institutions might wish to partner with the GPO and the effect these partnerships have had on enhancing access to government information resources, an area that has not been extensively covered in library literature.

China-US summit yields more strains than gains

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Personal Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government ◽  
International Image ◽  
Economic Slowdown ◽  
Government Workers ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Significance Several recent strains in the relationship guaranteed a tense official dialogue and tepid reception of Xi across Washington -- the impact of China's economic slowdown on the US stock market, accusations of Chinese cyber theft of US government workers' personal data, and continued maritime tensions. Impacts China's climate change commitments will improve its international image, but will not reduce tensions on other issues. Washington will impose sanctions if it believes China is breaking the new cybercrime agreement. US politics ahead of next year's presidential election will put more strain on China-US relations. Dialogue on the South China Sea is unlikely to bear fruit while Washington's policy is undecided.

Central European defence cooperation will increase

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Europe ◽  
European Perspective ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central European ◽  
Eu Integration ◽  
The Us ◽  
Angela Merkel ◽  
The Creation ◽  
Defence Cooperation ◽  
First Time

Subject The Central European perspective on greater EU cooperation in defence. Significance The proposal on August 26 by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the leaders of the Central European 'Visegrad Four' (V4) countries for the creation of a European army was the first time such a clarion call had been made collectively by EU leaders, as opposed to the more modest idea of developing European defence cooperation and capability. It is surprising that Poland was part of the initiative, given its commitment to NATO and trans-Atlantic relations, which are often taken as a reason to oppose further EU integration. Impacts Brexit has brought forth a variety of proposals to strengthen the EU's military arm. However, political and operational challenges mean that neither deeper cooperation nor a full EU army will be achieved easily, if ever. Insecurity about Russia and the US NATO commitment to Central Europe underlie the call, but cannot be meaningfully addressed soon. Poland will remain staunchly pro-NATO but must prepare for defence alternatives that can include EU forces.

Canada asylum pressures may bring political friction

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Federal Government ◽  
Asylum Seekers ◽  
The United States ◽  
Asylum Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government ◽  
Federal Politics

Subject Asylum-seekers and Canada. Significance After an uptick in asylum claims in recent months, including via the United States, asylum policy is likely to feature more heavily in Canadian state and federal politics. Impacts New migrant flows to Canada will likely be triggered as the US government reduces its grants of Temporary Protected Status. Quebec’s government will face off against the Ottawa federal government over responsibility for new migrant arrivals. Ottawa and Washington will likely eventually update the Safe Third Country Agreement, but this could require bargaining. Canada may invest more in border policing and associated technologies.

Taiwan will benefit from US-China friction

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
North Korea ◽  
State Department ◽  
The State ◽  
Military Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Opening Ceremony ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government ◽  
At Home

Significance Taiwan-US relations got a symbolic boost when the US government opened a new 250-million-dollar institute to house the de facto embassy in Taipei, Taiwan's capital, on June 12. President Tsai Ing-wen, and a US delegation that included representatives from Congress and the State Department, attended the opening ceremony. It may have received greater attention and perhaps higher-ranking US representation had the first US-North Korea summit not been scheduled for the same day. Impacts Taiwan's president will be constrained from improving China ties by anti-China sentiment at home. More businesses could come under Chinese pressure as cross-Strait relations deteriorate further. Taiwan-US military cooperation will prompt more aggressive Chinese efforts to diminish Taiwan's standing and increase military intimidation.

Bloomberg story to fuel suspicion of China's hardware

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
The United States ◽  
Reporting Standards ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government ◽  
Global Norms ◽  
Libel Suits

Subject Bloomberg report on Chinese supply chain attack. Significance Amazon and Supermicro on October 24 joined Apple in calling on Bloomberg Businessweek to retract its October 4 story about an alleged Chinese supply chain attack on 30 US companies, including Apple and Amazon. Based on evidence provided by 17 anonymous sources from the affected companies and the US government, the story alleged that Chinese agents planted malicious chips in server motherboards manufactured by Supermicro, a major hardware supplier in the United States and globally. Thus far, no one has been able to corroborate Bloomberg's claim, and Bloomberg has provided no further verification itself. Impacts Bloomberg will face pressure to review its reporting standards if it fails to deliver credible evidence for the story. The controversy could end in costly libel suits against Bloomberg if it fails to retract or verify its report. There are no global norms on cyber or supply chain attacks; no agreement is forthcoming.

US sanctions pressure on Russia will not let up

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Economic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Eu

Significance One bill would prohibit the US government from ever recognising the 2014 annexation of Crimea. Two others instruct the Director of National Intelligence to report on President Vladimir Putin's wealth and on Russian efforts to spread disinformation and undermine the stability of European allies. The fourth is a resolution condemning Putin and subordinates for the 2015 killing of opposition politician Boris Nemtsov. These measures come as larger sanction packages are under discussion. Impacts A proposed US boycott of the St Petersburg International Economic Forum in June will mark a further downward turn in relations. The EU will retain existing sanctions but new measures mirroring US actions are unlikely. Moscow will focus on replacing Western technological imports with Chinese alternatives and domestic manufacture.

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