A consensus based vulnerability assessment to climate change in Germany

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 306-326 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Greiving ◽  
Marc Zebisch ◽  
Stefan Schneiderbauer ◽  
Mark Fleischhauer ◽  
Christian Lindner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Vulnerability Assessment ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Scientific Output ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Assessment Procedure ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Content Type

Purpose – This paper aims to propose a collaborative approach toward an integrated vulnerability assessment to climate change in Germany that attempts to bridge the gap between scientific output and policy demand. Design/methodology/approach – Conceptually, the approach follows the definition of vulnerability as used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but it has modified this basic concept. It clearly distinguishes between three time slices (presence, near and remote future) not only regarding the change in the climatic conditions but also socio-economic development trends. Findings – The paper concentrates on the selected methodological framework, the collaborative research design and those preliminary results of the nationwide vulnerability assessment that are transferable to other settings. Practical implications – A Vulnerability Network (“Netzwerk Vulnerabilitaet”) emerged from an applied research project commissioned under the Adaptation Action Plan of the German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change by the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety and the Federal Environment Agency. The assessment serves as evidence basis for the implementation of the German Adaptation Strategy. Thus, all relevant federal authorities and agencies are represented in the Vulnerability Network. Originality/value – The approach is the first really integrative vulnerability assessment for the whole Germany, as it considers not only 16 sectors but also interconnections between these sectors and cumulative effects for three different time slices. Moreover, the normative component of the assessment was clearly separated from the analytic one. The Vulnerability Network as a whole has been responsible for all normative decisions to be taken during the assessment procedure thus ensuring a wide understanding and acceptance of commonly achieved results.

scholarly journals Development of water use scenarios as a tool for adaptation to climate change

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Jacinto ◽  
M. J. Cruz ◽  
F. D. Santos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Land Use Scenarios ◽  
Technological Developments ◽  
Emissions Scenarios

Abstract. The project ADAPTACLIMA, promoted by EPAL, the largest Portuguese Water Supply Utility, aims to provide the company with an adaptation strategy in the medium and long term to reduce the vulnerability of its activities to climate change. We used the four scenarios (A1, A2, B1, B2) adopted in the Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) to produce local scenarios of water use. Available population SRES for Portugal were downscaled to the study area using a linear approach. Local land use scenarios were produced using the following steps: (1) characterization of the present land use for each municipality of the study area using Corine Land Cover and adaptation of the CLC classes to those used in the SRES; (2) identification of recent tendencies in land use change for the study area; (3) identification of SRES tendencies for land use change in Europe; and (4) production of local scenarios of land use. Water use scenarios were derived considering both population and land use scenarios as well as scenarios of change in other parameters (technological developments, increases in efficiency, climate changes, or political and behavioural changes). The A2 scenario forecasts an increase in population (+16%) in the study area while the other scenarios show a reduction in the resident population (−6 to 8%). All scenarios, but especially A1, show a reduction in agricultural area and an increase in urban area. Regardless of the scenario, water use will progressively be reduced until 2100. These reductions are mainly due to increased water use efficiency and the reduction of irrigated land. The results accord with several projects modelling water use at regional and global level.

scholarly journals Vulnerabilite des moyens d'existence des menages ruraux au changement climatique: analyse comparative des territoires montagneux et littoraux des zones arides tunisiennes

New Medit ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Tenure ◽  
Vulnerability Assessment ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Coastal Plains ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Adaptation Capacity ◽  
Local Populations

This paper presents a livelihood vulnerability assessment and compares the levels of exposure, sensitivity and adaptation to climate change of the local populations in mountains area and coastal plains in Tunisian arid regions. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change vulnerability index (LVI-IPCC) has been adapted and applied to assess this livelihood vulnerability, based on socio-economic surveys and semi-structured interviews with the local populations. Findings show that households in coastal plains are more vulnerable in terms of socio demographic profile, food security, social networks, access to water and climate variability. This territory is much more exposed to climate change, despite being slightly less sensitive. On the other hand, households in mountainous territory are more vulnerable in terms of livelihood strategies, land tenure and health, despite their adaptation capacity, which reduces their vulnerability to climate change. Based on this vulnerability assessment, this work suggests specific adaptation strategies and measures for livelihoods sustainability in each territory.

Coastal tourism space in the context of climate change: discourses and strategies

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 549-559 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominic Lapointe ◽  
Coralie Lebon ◽  
Alexis Guillemard
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Coastal Tourism ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Rising Sea Levels ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of the paper is to explore how climate change and the discourses about adaptation to climate change are altering the spatial development of the tourism industry in coastal destinations. The paper also identifies how tourist development and climate change adaptation can be combined to transform space and place, especially in coastal tourism areas. Design/methodology/approach Using a theoretical approach based on the concept of production of space, the study focuses on relational space, relationships expressed through representations of space and social practices. A case study method is used to analyze the socio-geographic processes at work in the adaptation to climate change in a coastal tourism community in Quebec, Canada. The analysis of the study utilized Nvivo with thematic textual queries. Findings The results reveal an adaptation process at work, based on a “hold the line” strategy, where private stakeholders choose to invest in defensive structures to mitigate the impact of rising sea levels and erosion. This strategy reflects coordinated action in the face of the risk and to protect high-value land property. Research limitations/implications This research illustrates how tourism and climate change adaptation discourses intersect. It also reveals how tourism development promotes the values and image of coastal space and how this can conflict with an efficient climate change adaptation strategy. Originality/value This research provides guidelines for coastal tourism communities, enabling them to design their own climate change adaptation strategy, taking into account how the different social discourses and tourism practices interact with climate change adaptation. It also provides some insights into the criteria that influence an effective climate change adaptation strategy.

Proposing an implementation of a climate change adaptation strategy at river basin scale. Application to the Jucar river basin.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clara E Estrela Segrelles ◽  
Miguel Ángel Pérez Martín
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Water System ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Water Vulnerability ◽  
The Impact

<p>According to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, warming of the climate system is unequivocal and in recent decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans. Surface temperature is projected to rise, and rainfall patterns to change. Freshwater resources could be compromised due to climate change, especially in the Mediterranean region. Moreover, extreme events as droughts or floods are expected to occur more frequently.</p><p>For all these reasons, we propose the evaluation and implementation of a climate change adaptation river basin plan with the aim of reducing risks and improve resilience. Indeed, one of the goal 13 targets of the Sustainable Development Goals is strengthening resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries. The EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change encourage all members to implement adaptation strategies. For instance, climate change adaptation river basin plans are a reality in France, where basin adaptation plans have been published since 2014.</p><p>Evaluating risks and propose measures in order to reduce water vulnerability is needed in Jucar river basin (Eastern Spain) where water system is currently stressed. Jucar climate change adaptation basin plan should evaluate the specific qualities the basin has and the risks and vulnerabilities in order to strength water management. For this evaluation, we propose to assess the impact of the spatial distribution of precipitation and temperature within the case study for identifying the most vulnerability areas. Furthermore, the sea level rise will cause affection in groundwater aquifers that should be included on the proposed analysis.</p>

scholarly journals Water use scenarios as a tool for adaptation to climate change of a water supply company

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 265-289 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Jacinto ◽  
M. J. Cruz ◽  
F. D. Santos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Land Use Scenarios ◽  
Water Supply Company

Abstract. The project ADAPTACLIMA, promoted by EPAL, the largest Portuguese Water Supply Utility, aims to provide the company with an adaptation strategy in the medium and long term to reduce the vulnerabilities of its activities to climate change. We used the special report emissions scenarios (SRES) of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) to produce local scenarios of water use. Available population SRES for Portugal were downscaled to the study area using a linear approach. Local land use scenarios were produced using the following steps: (1) characterization of the present land use for each municipality of the study area using Corine Land Cover and adapt the CLC classes to those used in the SRES; (2) identification of recent tendencies in land use change for the study area; (3) identification of SRES tendencies for land use change in Europe; and (4) production of local scenarios of land use. Water use scenarios were derived considering both population and land use scenarios as well as scenarios of change in other parameters (technological developments, increases in efficiency, climate changes, or political and behavioural changes). The A2 scenario forecasts an increase in population (+16%) in the study area while the other scenarios show a reduction of resident population (−6 to 8%). All scenarios, but especially A1, show a significant reduction in agricultural area and an increase in urban area. Regardless of the scenario, water use will progressively be reduced until 2100. These reductions are mainly due to increased water use efficiency and reduction of irrigated land. The results concord with several projects modelling water use at regional and global level.

Systematic exploration of scenario spaces

foresight ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-75 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henrik Carlsen ◽  
E. Anders Eriksson ◽  
Karl Henrik Dreborg ◽  
Bengt Johansson ◽  
Örjan Bodin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Climate Change Research ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Generating Sets ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Systematic Exploration ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Business As Usual

Purpose – Scenarios have become a vital methodological approach in business as well as in public policy. When scenarios are used to guide analysis and decision-making, the aim is typically robustness and in this context we argue that two main problems at scenario set level is conservatism, i.e. all scenarios are close to a perceived business-as-usual trajectory and lack of balance in the sense of arbitrarily mixing some conservative and some extreme scenarios. The purpose of this paper is to address these shortcomings by proposing a methodology for generating sets of scenarios which are in a mathematical sense maximally diverse. Design/methodology/approach – In this paper, we develop a systematic methodology, Scenario Diversity Analysis (SDA), which addresses the problems of broad span vs conservatism and imbalance. From a given set of variables with associated states, SDA generates scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best span the whole set of feasible scenarios. Findings – The usefulness of the methodology is exemplified by applying it to sets of storylines of the emissions scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This ex-post analysis shows that the storylines were not maximally diverse and given the challenges ahead with regard to emissions reduction and adaptation planning, we argue that it is important to strive for diversity when developing scenario sets for climate change research. Originality/value – The proposed methodology adds significant novel features to the field of systematic scenario generation, especially with regard to scenario diversity. The methodology also enables the combination of systematics with the distinct future logics of good intuitive logics scenarios.

scholarly journals Organizational adaptation to climate change: learning to anticipate energy disruptions

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 645-665 ◽  
Author(s):  
Renato J. Orsato ◽  
Simone R. Barakat ◽  
José Guilherme F. de Campos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Organizational Adaptation ◽  
Organizational Level ◽  
Traditional Learning ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Double Loop Learning ◽  
Private And Public ◽  
New Forms Of Learning

Purpose This paper aims to investigate how organizational learning (OL) affects the development of anticipatory adaptation to climate change in companies. Because the need to learn increases in circumstances of greater uncertainty such as the case of climate change, one of the processes that can explain different levels of anticipatory adaptation to climate change (AACC) by companies is OL. Design/methodology/approach The research uses a case study design. Following the procedures of qualitative sampling, an exemplary case of organizational adaptation to climate change in a sector that is extremely affected by the impacts of weather events was chosen. Empirical data collection includes semi-structured interviews and the collection of private and public documents. Such data were analyzed through thematic analysis. Findings The process of OL for anticipatory adaptation to climate change presents substantial differences from the traditional OL process presented by the specialized literature. In particular, the concepts of single- and double-loop learning were challenging to fit into the learning processes required for AACC. Originality/value Organizations have historically been working towards the adaption to external unforeseen events, but anticipatory adaptation to climate change presents new challenges and requires new forms of learning. Previous research has examined the interplay between learning and climate change adaptation, especially at the inter-organizational level. By developing research at the organizational level, this paper addresses a gap in the literature and shows that the required learning to adapt to climate change differs from the traditional learning, described in the management literature.

Elderly smallholder farmers’ perceptions of and adaptation to climate variability and change in rural Ghana

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Divine Odame Appiah ◽  
Felix Asante ◽  
Lois Antwi-Boadi ◽  
Richard Serbeh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Formal Education ◽  
Social Protection ◽  
Smallholder Farmers ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Pension Scheme ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability And Change ◽  
Content Type

Purpose This paper aims to examine elderly smallholder farmers’ perceptions of and adaptation to climate variability and change in the Offinso Municipality, Ghana. Design/methodology/approach This paper used quantitative and qualitative methods. Quantitative data were analyzed with frequencies and chi-square tests, whereas qualitative data were thematically analyzed. Findings The results showed that elderly smallholder farmers’ knowledge of climate variability and climate change were based on their sex, level of formal education and experience in farming. Elderly smallholder farmers adopted both on-farm and off-farm strategies to cope with climate change and variability. The vulnerability of elderly smallholder farmers to climate change calls for social protection mechanisms such as a pension scheme that guarantees access to monthly cash transfers. Such a scheme will ease constraints to livelihood and ensure improved well-being. Originality/value Elderly smallholder farmers have remained invisible in discourses on perceptions and adaptation to climate change despite the surge in number of this category of farmers. This paper therefore represents an attempt to highlight the experiences of elderly smallholder farmers with climate variability and change.

DOES HARMFUL CLIMATE INCREASE OR DECREASE MIGRATION? EVIDENCE FROM RURAL HOUSEHOLDS IN NIGERIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (04) ◽  
pp. 1950013
Author(s):  
CRISTINA CATTANEO ◽  
EMANUELE MASSETTI
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Marginal Effect ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Migrant Households ◽  
The Impact

This paper analyzes whether migration is an adaptation strategy that households employ to cope with climate in Nigeria. We estimate our model using the cross-sectional variation in climate and long-term migration decisions because we are interested in the average response to long-term climatic conditions. For households that operate farms, we find that the relationship between climate and migration is nonlinear. In particular, climates closer to ideal farming conditions are associated with a higher propensity to migrate, whereas in the least favorable climatic conditions, the propensity to migrate declines. The marginal effect of rainfall and temperature changes on migration varies by season. We estimate the impact of climate change on the number of migrant households in 2031–2060 and 2071–2100, ceteris paribus. With current population levels, climate change generates between 3.6 and 6.3 million additional migrants, most of them being internal. However, these estimates are not statistically significant.

scholarly journals Semi-Minimal Pruned Hedge: A Potential Climate Change Adaptation Strategy in Viticulture

Agronomy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 173 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Molitor ◽  
Mareike Schultz ◽  
Robert Mannes ◽  
Marine Pallez-Barthel ◽  
Lucien Hoffmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Field Trials ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Training System ◽  
Soluble Solids ◽  
Maturity Period ◽  
Mechanical Thinning ◽  
Bunch Rot

The low-input viticultural training system ‘Semi-minimal pruned hedge’ (SMPH) is progressively being more widely applied in the Central European grapegrowing regions. The present study examined the influence of (i) the training system (SMPH versus the vertical shoot position (VSP) system), (ii) the timing of shoot topping in SMPH, and (iii) the effects of mechanical thinning in SMPH on the bunch rot epidemic, grape maturity, and yield. Six-year field trials on Pinot blanc in Luxembourg demonstrated that yield levels in non-thinned SMPH treatments were 74% higher, and total soluble solids (TSS) at harvest 2.2 brix lower than in VSP. Non-thinned SMPH delayed the bunch rot epidemic and the maturity progress by 18 and 11 days compared to VSP, respectively. Different shoot-topping timings in SMPH did not affect the tested parameters. Mechanical thinning regimes reduced the yield by 28% (moderate thinning) and 53% (severe thinning) compared to non-thinned SMPH and increased TSS by 0.8 and 1.3 brix, respectively. Delayed bunch rot epidemic and maturity progress give rise to the opportunity for a longer maturity period in cooler conditions, making this system of particular interest in future, warmer climatic conditions. Providing that yield levels are managed properly, SMPH might represent an interesting climate change adaptation strategy.

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