The drivers of economic growth in South Asia: evidence from a dynamic system GMM approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 564-577 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Mafizur Rahman ◽  
Rezwanul Hasan Rana ◽  
Suborna Barua
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Asia ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dynamic Estimation ◽  
One Step ◽  
Key Variables ◽  
Generalised Method Of Moments

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the drivers of economic growth in South Asia region for the period of 1975–2016 using the World Bank data. Design/methodology/approach Panel corrected standard error (static estimation) approach and one-step system generalised method of moments (dynamic estimation) approach are used. Findings Both the static and dynamic estimations indicate that energy use, gross capital formation and remittances are the main drivers of economic growth in South Asian countries. The effects of all these variables are positive and significant. The extent of the effect of energy use is much higher than that of other two variables on the economic growth. A 1 per cent increase in the growth of energy consumption can expedite the gross domestic product growth by approximately 3 per cent in South Asia. However, the key variables, such as trade, government expenditure and foreign direct investment demonstrate no significant effect. Originality/value The current research is original in the sense that it investigated the issue with a new data set using improved econometric techniques. Moreover, in South Asia as a whole, this kind of study is totally absent, particularly with panel data of a large number of years. Furthermore, this study has taken into account the problem of heterogeneity and the biases created by cross-section dependence, which were mostly absent in previous studies. Therefore, the findings of this research are new contributions to the existing literature.

Employment in South Asia: a new data set

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-181
Author(s):  
Robert C.M. Beyer ◽  
Milagros Chocce ◽  
Martin Rama
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Asia ◽  
Growth Patterns ◽  
Female Employment ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Employment Rates ◽  
Over Time

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present a new data set of comparable employment indicators for South Asian countries, constructed from more than 60 primary data sources from 2001 to 2017. Design/methodology/approach The main contribution of the paper is to curate the information provided by individual respondents to censuses and surveys, in a way that is consistent across countries and over time. The usefulness of the data set is illustrated by conducting a rigorous assessment of employment characteristics, of changes in employment over time and of the short- and long-run relationships between economic growth and employment growth in South Asia. Findings The exercise shows that agriculture still employs the majority of the working-age population across the region and, except in Sri Lanka, more than half of the employment is self-employment or unpaid family work. The paper also shows that employment rates are generally decreasing in South Asia, and that in some countries female employment rates are falling rapidly. Seasonal growth patterns are shown to affect the composition of employment, while non-seasonal changes in short-run growth affect the overall level of employment. The paper estimates that, in the long run, one percentage point growth of gross domestic product has led on average to a 0.34 per cent increase in employment. Originality/value This paper provides a new employment data set for South Asia, a rigorous assessment of employment trends and changes and an analysis for relationship between economic growth and employment (both quarterly and long-run).

scholarly journals Financial and economic stability as ‘two sides of a coin’

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 327-353 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ali Nasir ◽  
Mushtaq Ahmad ◽  
Ferhan Ahmad ◽  
Junjie Wu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Strong Association ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
Stability And Instability

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide a different context for considering issues of financial stability and instability, with reference to economic growth and price stability in particular. Design/methodology/approach – This paper pursued an empirical exploration of six pillars of financial stability, based on a data set for the UK extending from 1985 (Q1) to 2008 (Q2), through the construction of a vector error correction model, including an impulse response function analysis. Findings – The findings show a strong association between the financial and economic stability even in a non-crisis regime. This includes, for example, a strong association exists between the stock market and the real economy; exchange rate appreciation may not provide for long-term real economic growth; inflation does not contribute to real economic growth, both the sensitivity of the economy to yields and a significant lag in transitional effects from financial markets to the real sector; a positive role of credit creation within a non-crisis regime; exchange rate appreciation affects purchasing power; and potential points of linkage between sovereign debt activity and general price levels. Research limitations/implications – The findings should be considered in the context of a concept of the economy as fundamentally dynamic and subject to complex cumulative processes. Practical implications – The findings indicate there is a role for state oversight and intervention within a non-crisis regime based on the complexity of possible interactions that may undermine financial and price stability, with consequences for their association with economic growth. Originality/value – The study provides a new perspective for considering issues of financial stability and instability.

The relationship between environmental degradation, energy use and economic growth in Nigeria: new evidence from non-linear ARDL

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hammed Oluwaseyi Musibau ◽  
Waliu Olawale Shittu ◽  
Fatai Olarewaju Ogunlana
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Environmental Quality ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Partial Sums ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Ekc Hypothesis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to study the relationship among environmental degradation, energy use and economic growth, thus lending a voice to testing the relevance, or otherwise, of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis in Nigeria. Design/methodology/approach The authors rely on the secondary data obtained from World Bank’s World Development Indicators for Nigeria, between 1981 and 2014. The non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique is used after examining the unit root properties – using the augmented Dickey–Fuller and Phillips–Perron methods – and the long-run relationship – using the ARDL bounds approach to estimate the asymmetries in the effects of economic growth on the environment. Findings The findings of this study uphold the relevance of the EKC hypothesis in Nigeria, as the growth of GDP first reduces the environmental quality but raises it over time. Furthermore, the use of energy is found to deteriorate environmental quality, given that CO2 rises by 0.002% for a unit increase in the consumption of energy in Nigeria. Research limitations/implications A limitation to this research is the data coverage, which is just between 1981 and 2014, based on availability. One other limitation is the use of electric power consumption as a proxy for energy use (because of the difficulty in obtaining accurate data on energy consumption in Nigeria). Future research should, therefore, test different other proxies, to either agree with the findings or justify any deviation therefrom. Also, the use of up-to-date data is recommended as an improvement to this study, while a non-linear technique should be used on studies involving the panel of countries. Originality/value Many studies have examined this relationship by simply taking the square of GDP as a measure of its non-linear effect on the environment. The authors are one of the first who consider the asymmetric effect of economic growth on the environment through the non-linear ARDL technique. With this, the partial sums of positive and negative changes in economic growth on the environment are easily established.

Impact of remittances on economic performance in consideration of institutional quality

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 479-507
Author(s):  
Surya Nepal ◽  
Sae Woon Park ◽  
Sunhae Lee
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
South Asia ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Institutional Quality ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Asian Developing Countries

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to empirically assess the impact of remittances on the economic performance of the 16 Asian developing countries, taking account of their institutional qualities.Design/methodology/approachA panel of 16 Asian developing countries (Central Asia, South Asia, and ASEAN) over the period of 2002–2016 is employed in the analysis. To assess the impact of remittances on economic performance in consideration of institutional quality, OLS estimates as well as GMM are used.FindingsThe effect of remittances on economic growth is statistically significant. In addition, they also impact economic growth when they interact with institutional or financial development variables. For the long-run growth process of Central Asian, South Asian, and ASEAN countries, a sound and smooth institutional framework appears to be indispensable. Also, it was found that more fragile economies tend to achieve bigger growth than less fragile economies, as this kind of growth is triggered by more remittances flowing into fragile economies. However, the impact of remittances on growth does not depend on the level of ICT. FDI and financial development have positive impact on growth.Research limitations/implicationsThere are limitations to this research as well. Due to the unavailability of data, several countries had to be removed from this study. The cost of sending money might be an important variable for this study. However, the data on this variable from reliable sources are almost impossible to gather. Therefore, this variable is also not included in this research. The savings from remittances when intermediated through formal financial channels will, in fact, produce a positive allocation and distribution of resources that may eventually become an important source of growth. However, one precondition for larger and greater growth is that remittances need to be well and properly utilized by the financial sector. Therefore, quality institutions should be formed first, which can facilitate investment activities and make the flow of remittances more convenient.Originality/valueThis paper exclusively considers the case of Asian developing countries (Central Asia, South Asia, and ASEAN) to assess the impact of remittances on the economic performance of these countries, with special consideration of the interaction effects of remittances and institutional quality in these emerging Asian economies. The previous studies on the effect of remittances on growth do not conform to one concrete conclusion. This study is undertaken in a bid to get the best possible result on the impact of remittances on the growth of the selected countries, majority of which attract substantial chunk of remittances into their economies.

The effectiveness of government expenditure on economic growth in Botswana

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 368-384 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kafayat Amusa ◽  
Mutiu Abimbola Oyinlola
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in Botswana over the period 1985‒2016. The study employed the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach in investigating the nexus. The study makes the argument that the effectiveness of public spending should be assessed not only against the amount of the expenditure but also by the type of the expenditure. The empirical findings showed that aggregate expenditure has a negative short-run and positive long-run effect on economic growth. When expenditure is disaggregated, both forms of expenditures have a positive short-run effect on economic growth, whereas only a long-run positive impact of recurrent expenditure is observed. The study suggests the need to prioritize scarce resources in productive recurrent and development spending that enables increased productivity. Design/methodology/approach This study examined the effectiveness of government spending in Botswana, within an ARDL framework from 1985 to 2016. To achieve this, the analysis is carried out on both an aggregate and disaggregated level. Government spending is divided into recurrent and development expenditures. Findings This study examined the effectiveness of government spending in Botswana, within an ARDL framework from 1985 to 2016. To achieve this, the analysis hinged on both the aggregate and disaggregated levels. The results of the aggregate analysis suggest that total public expenditure has a negative impact on economic growth in the short run; however, its impact becomes positive over the long run. On disaggregating government spending, the results show that both recurrent and development expenditures have a significant positive short-run impact on growth; however, in the long run, the significant positive impact is only observed for recurrent expenditure. Practical implications The results provide evidence of the diverse effects of government expenditure in the country. In the period under investigation, 73 percent of total government expenditure in Botswana was recurrent in nature, whereas 23 percent was related to development. From the results, it can be observed that although the recurrent expenditure has contributed to increased growth and must be encouraged, it is also pertinent for the Botswana Government to endeavor to place more emphasis on productive development expenditure in order to enhance short- and long-term growth. Further, there is a need to strengthen the growth-enhancing structures and to prioritize the scarce economic resources toward productive spending and ensuring continued proper governance over such expenditures. Originality/value The study provides empirical evidence on the effectiveness of government spending in a small open, resource-reliant middle-income SSA economy and argues that the effectiveness of public spending must be assessed not only against the amount of the expenditure but also on the type or composition of the expenditure. The study contributes to the scant empirical literature on Botswana by employing the ARDL approach to cointegration technique in estimating the long- and short-run impact of government expenditure on economic growth between 1985 and 2016.

Political regimes and foreign aid effectiveness in Ghana

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincent Konadu Tawiah ◽  
Evans John Barnes ◽  
Prince Acheampong ◽  
Ofori Yaw
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Political Ideology ◽  
Aid Effectiveness ◽  
Political Agenda ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Political Regimes ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Purpose This paper has examined the effectiveness of foreign aid on Ghanaian economy under different political regimes. Design/methodology/approach Using vector error correction and co-integration models on the annual data set over a period of 35 years, the authors demonstrate that foreign aid has had varied impacts on economic growth depending on the political ideology of the government in power. Findings With capitalist political philosophy, foreign aid improves private sector growth through infrastructural development. On the other hand, a government with socialist philosophy applies most of its foreign aid in direct social interventions with the view of improving human capital. Thus, each political party is likely to seek foreign aid/grant that will support its political agenda. Overall, the results show that foreign aid has a positive impact on the growth of the Ghanaian economy when there is good macroeconomic environment. Practical implications This implies that the country experiences economic growth when there are sound economic policies to apply foreign aid. Originality/value The practical implication of the findings of this paper is that donor countries and agencies should consider the philosophy of the government in power while granting aid to recipient countries, especially in Africa. The results are robust to different proxies and models.

The dynamic relationship between CO2 emission, international tourism and energy consumption in Pakistan: a cointegration approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 74 (4) ◽  
pp. 761-779 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yaping Liu ◽  
Tafazal Kumail ◽  
Wajahat Ali ◽  
Farah Sadiq
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Environmental Quality ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Growth Energy

Purpose The present study aims to investigate the dynamic relationship between international tourist receipts, economic growth, energy use and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Pakistan over the period 1980-2016. Many researchers have investigated the link between tourism and CO2 emissions, but there is no clear picture as the results are contradictory. This study is an attempt to compliment the literature related to tourism and environmental quality. Design/methodology/approach The study adopted the autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) model to investigate the short- and long-run estimates simultaneously. The study further applied Granger causality to find out the direction of causalities. To arrive at long-run robust estimates, the study used dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) model. Findings The results found that tourist receipts have no significant impact on environmental quality, while growth and energy consumption are the main determinants of CO2 emissions in Pakistan. The Granger causality test confirmed unidirectional causalities from GDP and energy consumption toward CO2 emissions, while tourist receipts do not affect environmental quality. DOLS technique confirmed the long-run estimates of ARDL model. Research limitations/implications The result of the study complements the literature by adding new evidence regarding the nexus of tourism and environment. Findings of the study are important for policymakers and regulatory bodies to place their focus on the development of tourism sector (services sector) rather than energy-intensive manufacturing activities to sustain the growth of the country in higher quartiles, as tourism receipts have no significant negative externalities toward environment, while energy use is one of the key determinants of environmental degradation. Originality/value This study used time series data over the period 1980-2016 for Pakistan to inspect the dynamic relationship between tourist receipts, economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions.

Financial development, human capital and its impact on economic growth of emerging countries

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaqib Sarwar ◽  
Muhammad Asif Khan ◽  
Zahid Sarwar ◽  
Wajid Khan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Emerging Countries ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the critical aspect of financial development, human capital and their interactive term on economic growth from the perspective of emerging economies. Design/methodology/approach Data set ranged from 2002 to 2017 of 83 emerging countries used in this research and collected from world development indicators of the World Bank. The two-step system generalized method of moments is used to conduct this research within the endogenous growth model while controlling time and country-specific effects. Findings The findings of the study indicate that financial development has a positive and significant effect on economic growth. In emerging countries, human capital also has a positive impact on economic growth. Financial development and human capital interactively affect economic growth for emerging economies positively and significantly. Research limitations/implications The data set is limited to 83 emerging countries of the world. The time period for the study is 2002 to 2017. Originality/value This research contributes to the existing literature on human capital, financial development and economic growth. Limited research has been conducted on the impact of financial development and human capital on economic growth.

Financing small and medium enterprises in Asia and the Pacific

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masato Abe ◽  
Michael Troilo ◽  
Orgil Batsaikhan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Asia ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Small And Medium Enterprises ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growth And Survival ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Severe Constraint ◽  
Medium Enterprises

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to propose policy suggestions for the financing of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the Asia-Pacific region. Recent literature suggests that lack of capital is the most severe constraint for SME survival and growth. Enabling policymakers to assist SMEs in their search for financing will boost economic growth. Design/methodology/approach – The methodology includes both quantitative and qualitative components. Current World Bank data on the strength of various financial institutions in the countries of interest is analyzed to discover areas of improvement. Additionally, 32 experts from East and South Asia were interviewed several times to determine areas of concern in financing SMEs. Their responses and the evidence from the World Bank data form the basis of the policy prescriptions in the paper. Findings – Financing is a critical constraint for SMEs for several reasons. Many SME owners do not manage working capital effectively, information asymmetry between banks and SMEs retards the loan application and approval process, and underdeveloped equity markets deny SMEs future growth opportunities. Policymakers can ameliorate conditions by serving as facilitators and communicators; governments should not provide financing directly if possible. Practical implications – It is hoped and expected that the policy prescriptions offered herein will enhance the growth and survival prospects of SMES, thereby creating more employment, innovation, and economic growth. Originality/value – The main contribution of this work is its scope. While the financing of SMEs is a familiar topic, the review of issues and policies in East and South Asia, and their distillation into practical advice for officialdom, is what makes this manuscript unique.

Government expenditure and economic growth in the European Union countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 372-386 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gitana Dudzevičiūtė ◽  
Agnė Šimelytė ◽  
Aušra Liučvaitienė
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
European Union ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide more reliable estimates of the relationship between government spending and economic growth in the European Union (EU) during the period of 1995-2015. Design/methodology/approach The methodology consisted of several different stages. In the first stage for an assessment of dynamics of government spending and economic growth indicators over two decades, descriptive statistics analysis was employed. Correlation analysis helped to identify the relationships between government expenditures (GEs) and economic growth. In the third stage, for modeling the relationship and the estimation of causality between GE and economic growth, Granger causality testing was applied. Findings The research indicated that eight EU countries have a significant relationship between government spending and economic growth. Research limitations/implications This study has been bounded by general GE and economic growth only. The breakdowns of general GE on the basis of the activities they support have not been considered in this paper, which is the main limitation of the research. Despite the limitation, it might be maintained that the research highlights key relationships in the EU countries. Originality/value These insights might be useful for policy makers. In countries with unidirectional causality running from GE to economic growth, the government can employ expenditure as a factor for growth. The governments should ensure that resources are properly managed and efficiently allocated to accelerate economic growth in the countries with unidirectional causality from GDP to GE.

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