scholarly journals Exchange rate undervaluation and sectoral performance of the South African economy

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (4) ◽  
pp. 636-649
Author(s):  
Bernard Njindan Iyke
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
South African ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Growth Effect ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to uncover the channels through which real exchange rate undervaluation influences the performance of the South African economy. Design/methodology/approach The author decomposes the South African economy into three sectors: agriculture, industry, and services. Specifying a model for each sector, the author employs the ordinary least squares (with Newey-West and robust standard errors) and generalized method of moments estimation techniques. The annual time series data cover the period 1962-2014. Findings The author finds that real exchange rate undervaluation exerted a positive influence on agriculture and industry, and a negative impact on services. Research limitations/implications The results have practical policy implications, which are discussed in the paper. Originality/value Although the growth effect of real exchange rate undervaluation has been well established in the literature, the channels through which this occurs has received limited attention. Prior to this study, no study has considered the impact of real exchange rate undervaluation on the economy through the various sectors in the South African context.

scholarly journals The dynamic response of the rand real exchange rate to fundamental shocks

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 108-121 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Balcilar ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Charl Jooste
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
South African ◽  
Impulse Responses ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Over Time

Purpose – The authors analyse the relationship between the South African real exchange rate and economic fundamentals – demand, supply and nominal shocks. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – The authors use a time-varying parameter VAR to study the coherence, conditional volatility and impulse responses of the exchange rate over specific periods and policy regimes. The model is identified using sign-restrictions that allow for some neutrality of impulse responses over contemporaneous and long horizons. Findings – The results suggest that the importance of fundamental shocks on the exchange rate is time dependent. Hence there is a loss in information when using standard linear models that average out effects over time. The response of the exchange rate to demand and supply shocks have weakened over the 1994-2010 period. Research limitations/implications – The period following financial crisis has strengthened the relationship between supply and demand shocks to the exchange rate, but has weakened the relationship between interest rate shocks and the exchange rate response. Practical implications – This paper provides deeper insight as to how the exchange rate responds to fundamental shocks. This should help monetary policy understand the consequences of interest rate decisions on the exchange rate and the indirect effect of inflation on the exchange rate. Originality/value – This application is new to the South African literature. The authors propose that the use of interest rates is limited in affecting the value of the rand exchange rate over particular periods. Isolating fundamental shocks to exchange rates over time helps policy makers make clearer and more informed decisions.

scholarly journals Trade liberalisation, competitiveness and the real exchange rate (RER): An analysis of developments in South Africa during the 1990s

2003 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 643-665
Author(s):  
L Rangasamy ◽  
C Harmse
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
South African ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Trade Liberalisation ◽  
The South ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
Tradable Sector ◽  
The Impact

This paper tests whether tariff liberalisation has lead to increased competitiveness in the South African economy. The 46 sectors of the South African economy are classified as exportable, importable, importable and exportable and non-tradable. The impact of trade liberalisation on domestic prices for importables and exportables is then assessed by making use of real exchange rate calculations. It is concluded that while increased globalisation of production processes in South Africa may have improved the competitiveness of the tradable sector, tariff liberalisation played a minimal role in improving competitiveness in the manufacturing sector.

How does ownership structure affect the financing and dividend decisions of firm?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tahar Tayachi ◽  
Ahmed Imran Hunjra ◽  
Kirsten Jones ◽  
Rashid Mehmood ◽  
Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan
Keyword(s):  
Ownership Structure ◽  
Dividend Policy ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Institutional Ownership ◽  
Agency Cost ◽  
Debt Financing ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Managerial Ownership ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Ownership structure deals with internal corporate governance mechanism, which plays important role in minimizing conflict of interests between shareholders and management Ownership structure is an important mechanism that influences the value of firm, financing and dividend decisions. This paper aims to examine the impact of the ownership structures, i.e. managerial ownership, institutional ownership on financing and dividend policy. Design/methodology/approach The authors use panel data of manufacturing firms from both developed and developing countries, and the generalized method of moments (GMM) is applied to analyze the results. The authors collect the data from DataStream for the period of 2010 to 2019. Findings The authors find that managerial ownership and ownership concentration have significant and positive effects on debt financing, but they have significant and negative effects on dividend policy. Institutional ownership shows a positive impact on financing decisions and dividend policy for sample firms. Originality/value This study fills the gap by proving the policy implications for both firms and investors, as managers prefer debt financing, but at the same time try to ignore dividend payment. Therefore, investors may not invest in firms with a higher proportion of managerial ownership and may choose to invest more in institutional ownership, which lowers the agency cost.

Economic complexity and price competitiveness dependence: empirical evidence using panel models

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Guilherme Magacho ◽  
Rafael Ribeiro ◽  
Igor Rocha
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
The Other ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Price Competitiveness ◽  
Economic Complexity ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
The Impact

Purpose As economies with high economic complexity and productive capabilities may easily adapt their productive structure due to product differentiation and innovation, the central variable of competitiveness for these countries is the product quality, not price. On the other hand, the price can be an important determinant of less complex countries, and hence, real exchange rate (RER) misalignments may have long-term impacts. This paper aims to empirically assess variations in the magnitude of the impact in RER misalignments on output growth subject to countries’ economic complexity. Design/methodology/approach The estimation technique used is the generalized method of moments-System estimator as this method is robust to reverse causality. Heterogeneous regressions using interaction models are undertaken to analyze to what extend promoting economic complexity can reduce price competitiveness dependence and allow countries to grow faster without relying on cost competitiveness. Findings Estimates show that economic complexity (which measures technological and productive capabilities) determines cross-country differences regarding the effects of RER misalignments on countries’ long-term growth rates. The results suggest that exchange rate devaluations may not be effective for countries at the top end of the technological ladder while an overvalued RER may damage the long-term growth rate of countries with low levels of economic complexity. Originality/value This paper contributes to the literature by empirically investigating the impact of RER misalignments in countries with distinct technological and productive capabilities based on the recent developments of countries’ economic complexity analysis. It investigates whether more diversified and complex economies are less sensitive to RER misalignments as they can adapt their production, undertake other tasks, create new products and increase the quality of products they produce. Less complex economies, on the other hand, are less capable of innovating because it demands productive capabilities they do not have, and hence, they are more dependent on their current export basket.

scholarly journals Monetary spillovers and real exchange rate misalignments in emerging markets

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Krittika Banerjee ◽  
Ashima Goyal
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Portfolio Flows ◽  
The Us ◽  
Common Correlated Effects ◽  
Monetary Neutrality ◽  
The Impact

PurposeAfter the adoption of unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) in advanced economies (AEs) there were many studies of monetary spillovers to asset prices in emerging market economies (EMEs) but the extent of contribution of EMEs and AEs, respectively, in real exchange rate (RER) misalignments has not been addressed. This paper addresses the gap in a cross-country panel set-up with country specific controls.Design/methodology/approachFixed effects, pooled mean group (Pesaran et al., 1999) and common correlated effects (Pesaran, 2006) estimations are used to examine the relationship. Multiway clustering is taken into account to ensure robust statistical inferences.FindingsRobust evidence is found for significant monetary spillovers over 1998–2017 in the form of RER overvaluation of EMEs against AEs, especially through the portfolio rebalancing channel. EME RER against the US saw significantly more overvaluation in UMP years indicating greater role of the US in monetary spillovers. However, in the long-run monetary neutrality holds. EMEs did pursue mercantilist and precautionary policies that undervalued their RERs. Precautionary undervaluation is more evident with bilateral EME US RER.Research limitations/implicationsIt may be useful for large EMEs to monitor the impact of foreign portfolio flows on short-run deviations in RER. Export diversification reduces EME mercantilist motives against the US. That AE monetary policy significantly appreciates EME RER has implications for future policy cooperation between EMEs and AEs.Originality/valueTo the best of the author's knowledge such a comparative analysis between AE and EME policy variables on RER misalignment has not been done previously.

scholarly journals The Impact of Productivity, Investment and Real Wages on Employment Absorption Rate in South Africa

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 330 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Habanabakize ◽  
Daniel Francois Meyer ◽  
Judit Oláh
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Absorption Rate ◽  
Labour Productivity ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The South ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Investment Spending ◽  
The Impact

Many developing countries are facing high levels of unemployment and most people who are employed are poorly remunerated due to low skills and productivity levels. Although jobs are important, a productive job is even more important, not only for employees, but also for employers. South Africa, being a developing country, is also facing the challenge of dramatically high levels of unemployment. This study’s aim was to examine both the short- and long-term impacts of real wages, labour productivity and investment spending on employment absorption rates in South Africa. To establish the existing relationship between variables, the study applied several econometric approaches, such as an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, error correction model (ECM) and a Toda–Yamamoto causality analysis on quarterly time series data from 1995Q1 to 2019Q1. The results revealed the existence of both short- and long-run relationships among the variables. While a positive relationship was found between employment absorption, investment spending and labour productivity, it was found that real wages negatively impact on long-run employment absorption rates. Additionally, the short-run analysis indicated that the lagged employment absorption rate influences the current rate of employment. Furthermore, the causality tests indicated that a bi-directional causal relationship exists between employment absorption and investment spending; and a uni-directional relationship between employment and both real wages and labour productivity. Based on the findings, the study recommends increments of investment spending and labour productivity that enables the South African economy to carry out more activities that would require more workers, thereby improving the employment absorption rate. The fact that labour productivity positively impacts the employment absorption rate infers the requirement for quality and skilled workers to be absorbed in the South African labour market. Therefore, labour skills improvements appear to be a prerequisite for productivity enhancement and job creation.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Growth in Pakistan: The Role of Financial Development

2020 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-99
Author(s):  
Zainab Jehan ◽  
Iffat Irshad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Adverse Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Development Economic ◽  
Exchange Rate Misalignment ◽  
The Impact

This study endeavours to examine empirically how real exchange rate (RER) misalignment affects economic growth in Pakistan. In this regard, we have not only estimated the direct impact but also the indirect impact of misalignment on economic growth by using the financial development channel. We have used time series data ranging from 1980 to 2016 to carry out the empirical analysis. After testing the time series properties of the selected variables, we computed long run equilibrium RER later used to calculate RER misalignment. Finally, we estimated the impact of misalignment on per capita economic growth, both direct and indirect. Our results reveal an adverse impact of RER misalignment on economic growth. However, we report that financial development helps in minimising the adverse impact of RER misalignment, though not fully eliminating it. Based on the empirical findings, the study suggests that exchange rate policies need to be managed more cautiously. Moreover, the financial sector development needs to be strengthened which may help in fully alleviating the adverse impact of RER misalignment on economic growth. JEL Classification: F31, GOO, O47 Keywords: Real Exchange Rate Misalignment, Financial Development, Economic Growth, FMOLS

Unprepared industry meet pandemic: COVID-19 and the South Africa construction industry

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Clinton Ohis Aigbavboa ◽  
Douglas Omoregie Aghimien ◽  
Wellington Didibhuku Thwala ◽  
Moleboheng Ntebo Ngozwana
Keyword(s):  
Construction Industry ◽  
South African ◽  
Project Delivery ◽  
The South ◽  
Item Score ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Business Operations ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to determine the responses of construction organisations to the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and its associated lockdown and the impact on the South African construction industry (SACI). Design/methodology/approach The study adopted a quantitative survey with responses sought from 825 contracting organisation’s representatives drawn from the database of the construction industry development board. The data gathered were analysed using percentage, mean item score and one-sample t-test. The reliability of the research instrument was also tested using the Cronbach alpha test. Findings Findings revealed that most construction organisations implemented a complete travel ban and halting all business operations on sites and offices in a bid to curb the spread of the virus. Furthermore, whilst most construction organisations envisage significant disruption in their project delivery, the problem of job losses was regarded as a short, medium and long-term impact of the pandemic. Loss of revenue, a decline in the economy and business interruption are also some of the potential impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the SACI. Originality/value The study’s findings give practical insights on the potential impact of the pandemic on the construction industry and the possible approach needed to help cushion the effect on the industry.

scholarly journals Real exchange rate undervaluation and sectoral growth in South Africa

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 462-476
Author(s):  
Brian Tavonga Mazorodze ◽  
Dev D. Tewari
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Dynamic Panel Data ◽  
Dynamic Panel ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sectoral Growth ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to establish the empirical link between real exchange rate (RER) undervaluation and sectoral growth in South Africa between 1984 and 2014.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs a dynamic panel data approach estimated by the system generalised method of moments technique in a bid to control for endogeneity.FindingsThe authors find a significant positive impact of undervaluation on sectoral growth which increases with capital accumulation. Also, the authors confirm that undervaluation promotes sectoral growth up to a point where further increases in undervaluation retards growth.Practical implicationsThe results confirm the importance of policies that keep the domestic currency weaker to foster sectoral growth.Originality/valueThe originality of this paper lies in establishing the impact of exchange rate undervaluation on growth at a sector level in the context of South Africa using a dynamic panel data approach.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document