A new EDAS method based on prospect theory for Pythagorean fuzzy set and its application in selecting investment projects for highway

Kybernetes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peng Li ◽  
Ju Liu ◽  
Cuiping Wei ◽  
Jian Liu
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Bounded Rationality ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Score Function ◽  
Critical Factor ◽  
High Grade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Criteria Weights

PurposeChina is a critical factor for constructing an all-round well-off society. Infrastructure construction, especially high-grade highways, in the western area is an essential component of the strategy for large-scale development of west China. It is crucial to evaluate investment projects for high-grade highways and select the best one. Testing investment projects and selecting the best one can be recognized as a multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) problem. In this process, decision-makers (DMs) usually face with uncertain information because of complicated decision environment or their limited knowledge.Design/methodology/approachA new Evaluation based on the Distance from Average Solution (EDAS) for PFS based on the DEMATEL is proposed: The authors offer a new score function and prove some properties for the score function. They put forward a novel Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method for PFS to analyze the relations of criteria and get criteria weights. Considering the bounded rationality of DM, the authors propose a new EDAS method for PFS based on prospect theory. They apply their proposed approach to a western city's actual case in selecting a suitable project for building a high-grade highway.FindingsBy comparison, the authors can observe that our method has some traits: (1) considering bounded rationality of DM; (2) fewer computation; (3) having the ability to obtain the relation of criteria and finding the critical factor in the decision system.Originality/valueIn this paper, the authors propose a new EDAS method for PFS based on the DEMATEL technique. They transform PFS into crisp numbers by their proposed new score function for PFN to make the decision process more convenient. Then, the authors use the DEMATEL method to obtain the relationship between criteria and criteria weights. Furthermore, they propose a new EDAS method for PFS based on DEMATEL to reduce the computational complexity. Finally, they apply our method to a real case and compare our method with two traditional methods.

Interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy stochastic multi-criteria decision-making method based on Prospect theory

Kybernetes ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianwei Gao ◽  
Huihui Liu
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Score Function ◽  
Fuzzy Decision Making ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Intuitionistic Fuzzy ◽  
New Criteria ◽  
Interval Valued

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide a new approach to solving the interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy stochastic multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems. Design/methodology/approach – To transform the interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy number (IVIFN) into a computational numerical value, a new precision score (P-score) function is developed based on the degrees of membership, non-membership and hesitation. The prospect decision-making matrix is derived by applying P-score function and Prospect theory. A new criteria weighting model is put forward based on the least square method, the maximizing deviation method and Prospect theory. Consequently, combined criteria weighting model with the prospect decision-making matrix, the integrated prospect value is derived which presents a measurement scale for ranking the order of alternatives. Findings – As a result, the method of the interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy stochastic MCDM is suggested. In this method, the new P-score function responses the comprehensive information of the criteria. The prospect decision-making matrix can reflect the risk attitude of the decision maker. The new criteria weighting model can express both the subjective considerations of the decision maker and the objective information meaning. Research limitations/implications – The research results may lack generalizability for other fuzzy decision making because of the chosen research approach for IVIFN decision making. Therefore, researchers are encouraged to test the proposed propositions further. Practical implications – The developed approach can be applied in many decision-making fields such as selection of renewable energy alternatives, assessment of flexible manufacturing system alternatives and human resource alternatives performance evaluation, etc. where the evaluation values are IVIFNs. Originality/value – This paper succeeds in studying the interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy MCDM based on Prospect theory, which has not been reported in the existing academic literature.

The factors of consumer confidence recovery after scandals in food supply chain safety

2018 ◽  
Vol 30 (5) ◽  
pp. 1379-1400 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuhui Wang ◽  
Paul Alexander
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Food Safety ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Deductive Reasoning ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Milk Formula ◽  
Extended Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Before And After

Purpose Viewing consumer confidence as a set of static factors has informed previous research and underpinned strategies used in recovering from food safety quality failures, but this approach has not delivered reliable and quick recovery from large-scale food safety scandals. The purpose of this paper is to examine extant models and the factors they are composed of, and suggest an extended model that has a better potential for consumer confidence. The paper focuses on food products where supply chains are visible, and use these features to group the findings. Design/methodology/approach In this study principal components and logit analyses are used to assess the role of 30 variables operating in a consumer confidence model constructed from several existing in the literature. This combined model considers emotional, cognitive, trust and sociodemographic factors. In total, 14 independent factors are identified. The authors examine the factors, and from these, the decision-making mechanisms before and after the Sanlu Infant Milk Formula (IMF) scandal of 2008. Findings The authors find that the factors considered by consumers are different for different IMF supply chains, and different again before and after the scandal. The authors develop the argument for an extension to the existing models, incorporating a dynamic consumer confidence system. Research limitations/implications The paper uses a single survey after the focus event to establish “before” and “after” decision-making factors. Since the IMF scandal is recent and of very high profile, this is likely valid even if it carries memory bias effects. The study is directly applicable to food safety scandals in a Chinese context. Deductive reasoning extends our assertions to a wider context. They are logically validated but have not been formally tested. Practical implications Using this system as a framework a checklist for recovery from a similar food safety scandal is suggested. The authors also suggest more general use for use where supply chains features are visible to consumers. Originality/value Models for food safety consumer confidence recovery have previously focused on identifying models and the static factors they consist of. These do represent a reflection of how this phenomenon operates, but using the principals of this model nevertheless does not result in good recovery from extreme food safety failures. This paper contributes by extending these models to one that can be applied for better recovery.

scholarly journals An Integrated Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Model Based on Prospect Theory for Green Supplier Selection under Uncertain Environment: A Case Study of the Thailand Palm Oil Products Industry

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 1872 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patchara Phochanikorn ◽  
Chunqiao Tan
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Supplier Selection ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Oil Products ◽  
Green Supply Chain ◽  
Fuzzy Decision Making ◽  
Green Supplier Selection

Environmental concerns have globally driven the encouragement of green supply chain management. Accordingly, business and industrial organizations try to seek green supply chain strategies to respond to market pressure regarding corporate social responsibility. Green supplier selection is one of the practical strategies for modern enterprises. With the large-scale development of the palm oil products industry, green supplier selection technique is the key for decision making when dealing with mass information and possible risks of biased data. For instance, the preference of decision makers possibly causes a misleading decision, thus leading to unnecessary waste of resources. Therefore, the contribution of this paper is to apply the integrated multi-criteria decision method using the ‘fuzzy decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory’ (fuzzy DEMATEL) method to consider the cause and effect relationship and then using fuzzy analytic network process (fuzzy ANP) to assign the weight of each relevant criteria. The initial results are useful for strategic procurement planning. In the final step, we adopt the prospect theory to synthesize procurement’s psychological and behavioral factors when selecting green suppliers. The final result refers to the comprehensive prospect value to rank the eligible suppliers into orders. Moreover, the results of both sensitivity analysis and comparison method confirm that the proposed model is adequately realistic and robust.

scholarly journals A novel simulation framework for crowd co-decisions

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-16
Author(s):  
Xia Yao ◽  
Hongbo Sun ◽  
Baode Fan
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Voting Rule ◽  
The Social ◽  
Crowd Intelligence ◽  
Large Scale Simulations ◽  
Public Decision ◽  
Public Decision Making

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to aim mainly at social public decision-making problems, studies the corresponding relationship between different voting rule combinations and the final results, and discusses the quantitative relationships between group intelligence (final votes) and individual intelligence (everyone) to defend democracy under the circumstance of rapid development of network technology, and crowd intelligence becomes more complicated and universal. Design/methodology/approach After summarizing the crowd co-decisions of related studies, the standards, frameworks, techniques, methods and tools have been discussed according to the characteristics of large-scale simulations. Findings The contributions of this paper will be useful for both academics and practitioners for formulating VV&A in large-scale simulations. Originality/value This paper will help researchers solve the social public decision-making problems in large-scale simulations.

A case-based reasoning system for fault detection and isolation: a case study on complex gearboxes

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 213-235 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soumava Boral ◽  
Sanjay Kumar Chaturvedi ◽  
V.N.A. Naikan
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Fault Detection ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Fault Detection And Isolation ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Case Based Reasoning ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Complex Decision Making ◽  
Complex Decision ◽  
Case Based

Purpose Usually, the machinery in process plants is exposed to harsh and uncontrolled environmental conditions. Even after taking different types of preventive measures to detect and isolate the faults at the earliest possible opportunity becomes a complex decision-making process that often requires experts’ opinions and judicious decisions. The purpose of this paper is to propose a framework to detect, isolate and to suggest appropriate maintenance tasks for large-scale complex machinery (i.e. gearboxes of steel processing plant) in a simplified and structured manner by utilizing the prior fault histories available with the organization in conjunction with case-based reasoning (CBR) approach. It is also demonstrated that the proposed framework can easily be implemented by using today’s graphical user interface enabled tools such as Microsoft Visual Basic and similar. Design/methodology/approach CBR, an amalgamated domain of artificial intelligence and human cognitive process, has been applied to carry out the task of fault detection and isolation (FDI). Findings The equipment failure history and actions taken along with the pertinent health indicators are sufficient to detect and isolate the existing fault(s) and to suggest proper maintenance actions to minimize associated losses. The complex decision-making process of maintaining such equipment can exploit the principle of CBR and overcome the limitations of the techniques such as artificial neural networks and expert systems. The proposed CBR-based framework is able to provide inference with minimum or even with some missing information to take appropriate actions. This proposed framework would alleviate from the frequent requirement of expert’s interventions and in-depth knowledge of various analysis techniques expected to be known to process engineers. Originality/value The CBR approach has demonstrated its usefulness in many areas of practical applications. The authors perceive its application potentiality to FDI with suggested maintenance actions to alleviate an end-user from the frequent requirement of an expert for diagnosis or inference. The proposed framework can serve as a useful tool/aid to the process engineers to detect and isolate the fault of large-scale complex machinery with suggested actions in a simplified way.

Branding for non-profits: explaining new donor decision-making in the charity sector

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 583-600
Author(s):  
Gary Gregory ◽  
Liem Ngo ◽  
Ryan Miller
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Brand Choice ◽  
International Aid ◽  
Brand Attitude ◽  
Mediating Effect ◽  
Communication Strategy ◽  
Dual Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
New Donors

Purpose The purpose of this study develops and validates a model of new donor decision-making in the charity sector. Drawing upon dual process theory, the model incorporates brand salience and brand attitude as antecedents of brand choice intention, moderated by donor decision involvement. Design/methodology/approach Study 1 generates measures using interviews with marketing, media and research managers, and new donors from two international aid and relief organizations. Study 2 uses an experimental design to first test scenarios of disaster relief, and then validate and confirm a new donor decision model using large-scale consumer panels for the international aid and relief sector in Australia. Findings The results replicated across four leading international aid-related charities reveal that brand salience is positively related to brand choice intention through the mediating effect of brand attitude. Furthermore, the effect of brand salience on brand choice intention is significantly stronger when donor decision involvement is low. Conversely, the effect of brand attitude on brand choice intention is stronger for higher levels of donor decision involvement. Practical implications Managers should understand the importance of brand salience/attitudes and the implications for the communication strategy. Managers should also strive to understand the level of decision involvement and the relative influence of brand attitude/salience on brand choice intention. Originality/value This study advances the literature on charitable giving by proposing and testing a moderated mediation model of donor choice when selecting a charity for donation. Findings provide new insights into the extent to which brand salience, brand attitude and donor decision-making influence how new donors choose between charities for donation.

The role of hierarchical production planning in food manufacturing SMEs

2015 ◽  
Vol 35 (10) ◽  
pp. 1362-1385 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seamus O'Reilly ◽  
Anita Kumar ◽  
Frédéric Adam
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Production Planning ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Product Variety ◽  
Food Manufacturing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Hierarchical Production Planning ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Internal Integration

Purpose – In recent years there has been an increasing interest in make-to-stock and make-to-order combined strategies in food manufacturing operations. However, most scholarly work to-date has neglected the role of hierarchical production planning (HPP) in guiding small- and medium-sized enterprise (SME) implementation of such strategies. The purpose of this paper is to address food SME manufacturers’ readiness to adopt such strategies, in terms of internal integration and their capability to adopt formalised planning approaches. Design/methodology/approach – This study adopted an action research methodology to explore the potential impact of HPP in SME food manufacturers. Selected companies had identified product variety management as a challenge and also had recognised the need to enhance internal integration. Given this, the research team, from a theoretical perspective, proposed the use of HPP set within a broader decision-making conceptual framework to improve internal integration and planning. Findings – This paper adopts the fundamental position that HPP provides a useful framework in the establishment of strategic and tactical level constraints and priorities which then act as specific guides at the operational level, and presents empirical evidence in a food SME manufacturing context. In the cases the authors studies, the cascading effect of this decision-making framework focused attention on key metrics, encouraged greater internal integration and delivered tangible, significant improvements in performance. This was greatly facilitated by the provision of new key data on the cost of certain managerial trade-offs which these firms faced. Originality/value – SMEs are of a scale that requires a formalised planning approach; however production planning systems are typically designed for large scale enterprises. This paper addresses the need of SMEs in this regard. Well-established supply chain metrics were used to establish the benefits of both HPP and resulting improvement in internal integration and beyond, in terms of improvement in the quality of planning decisions.

Trust strategy simulation of corporation–NPO cross alliance using evolutionary game theory

Kybernetes ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 450-465 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yidan Chen ◽  
Lanying Sun
Keyword(s):  
Game Theory ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Nonprofit Organizations ◽  
Bounded Rationality ◽  
Evolutionary Game Theory ◽  
Evolutionary Game ◽  
Stable State ◽  
Evolutionary Strategies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trust Relationships

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamics and evolution of trust in organizational cross alliances. Design/methodology/approach In alliances between corporations and nonprofit organizations, trust in decision-making is a dynamic process. Using the replicated dynamics model of evolutionary game theory, this paper provides a trust decision model and analyzes four scenarios under different parameters. A numerical simulation is developed to present an intuitive interpretation of the dynamic development of trust decisions and the effects of incentive and punishment mechanisms. Findings Under different parameters, bounded rationality and utilities result in different but stable evolutionary strategies; the initial probability of adopting a trust strategy leads directly to whether participants adopt the strategy when the system reaches stability after continued games; and incentive and punishment mechanisms can significantly reduce the initial probability of adopting a trust strategy where the system evolves to meet stable state needs. Practical implications The establishment of trust relationships is an important influence on the stable and coordinated development of an alliance. The proposed model can help the alliance build closer trust relationships and provide a theoretical basis for the design of the trust mechanism. Originality/value Incentive and punishment bound by some degree of trust are introduced to address the problems of trust decisions and their dynamics; the model created reflects the bounded rationality and utility of each game stage. Useful evolutionary stable strategies using different variables are proposed to address the decision-making problems of trust in cross alliances.

Y International Group (YIG): Surviving Vietnam's anti-China riots in 2014

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Xiaojia Guo ◽  
Hao Chen ◽  
Peng Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Business Ethics ◽  
Bounded Rationality ◽  
Business Communication ◽  
Cross Cultural ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cultural Management ◽  
Effective Manner ◽  
Management Concepts ◽  
Cross Cultural Management

Subject area This case describes a real-time crisis experienced by the co-founder (Mr Yang) of a multi-national Chinese company operating in Vietnam during the 2014 Vietnam riot. After the strike broke out, Mr Yang made several critical decisions to protect and save both his factory and employees. Study level/applicability This case is applicable to graduate-level management courses such as: Business ethics, Decision-making, Business Communication and Cross-Cultural Management. Students should have some knowledge in Decision-Making concepts (e.g. “bounded rationality”); in Cross-Cultural Management concepts (e.g. “culture norms”); and in Strategic management theory such as “institution-based view” (e.g. formal vs informal institutions). Case overview Part A of the case introduces the main character (Mr Yang) and his factory in Vietnam, the escalation of the strike and the course of the crisis. It also elaborates the important critical decisions Mr Yang made to save both his factory and employees. Part B of the case describes the rescue of Mr Yang and his Chinese employees, his actions after the crisis and strategic positioning in future business. Part C of the case introduces the aftermath of the riot and Mr Yang's reflection regarding the crisis. Expected learning outcomes The instructors may emphasize different learning objectives in different courses. Business Ethics: help the students learn to recognize, clarify, speak and act on their values when conflicts arise. Decision-Making: helps the students understand the logic of sense-making in crisis and the concept of bounded rationality. Business Communication: helps the students learn to raise issues in an effective manner and learn to deliver their own responses effectively. Cross-Cultural Management: helps the students identify and analyze the many ways in which managers can voice and implement their values in the face of critical moments in a different cultural environment. Supplementary materials Teaching notes are available for educators only. Please contact your library to gain login details or email [email protected] to request teaching notes.

scholarly journals Calculative measures of organising and decision-making in developing countries: the case of a quasi-formal organisation in Ghana

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacob Agyemang ◽  
Kelum Jayasinghe ◽  
Pawan Adhikari ◽  
Abongeh Tunyi ◽  
Simon Carmel
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Social Practices ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Documentary Analysis ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Traditional Setting

PurposeThis paper examines how a “quasi-formal” organisation in a developing country engages in informal means of organising and decision-making through the use of calculative measures.Design/methodology/approachThe paper presents a case study of a large-scale indigenous manufacturing company in Ghana. Data for the study were collected through the use of semi-structured interviews conducted both onsite and off-site, supplemented by informal conversations and documentary analysis. Weber's notions of rationalities and traditionalism informed the analysis.FindingsThe paper advances knowledge about the practical day-to-day organisation of resources and the associated substantive rational calculative measures used for decision-making in quasi-formal organisations operating in a traditional setting. Instead of formal rational organisational mechanisms such as hierarchical organisational structures, production planning, labour controls and budgetary practices, the organisational mechanisms are found to be shaped by institutional and structural conditions which result from historical, sociocultural and traditional practices of Ghanaian society. These contextual substantive rational calculative measures consist of the native lineage system of inheritance, chieftaincy, trust and the power concealed within historically established sociocultural practices.Originality/valueThis paper is one of a few studies providing evidence of how local and traditional social practices contribute to shaping organising and decision-making activities in indigenous “quasi-formal” organisations. The paper extends our understanding of the nexus between “technical rational” calculative measures and the traditional culture and social practices prevailing in sub-Saharan Africa in general, and Ghana in particular.

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