Structural innovation in state variables and expected stock returns

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Prodosh E. Simlai
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Systematic Risk ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Cross ◽  
Structural Innovation

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to investigate whether the surprise components of systematic risk, which are useful in forecasting future investment opportunities, help explain the cross-section of average returns associated with portfolios sorted on size, book-to-market and accruals. This study also aims to examine the mispricing attributes of the size, value and accrual effects by investigating the relative economic relevance of aggregate risk factors, which are related to exogenous shocks in state variables, in the cross-sectional returns of triple-sorted portfolios.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses innovations of systematic risk, which affect the cash flows and risk-adjusted discount rates of all firms in an economy and determines the expected returns of portfolios based on firm characteristics. This study uses independent sorts based on size, book-to-market and total accruals – all of which are measured at the firm level – and construct three-dimensional test portfolios. For unobserved innovations, this study estimates a triangular structural vector autoregressive system and obtain the exogenous innovations in state variables. The author uses Fama-MacBeth two-pass cross-sectional regressions and examines whether the structural innovations explain a significant part of the cross-sectional variation in the average returns of the test portfolios.FindingsThis study finds that variations in expected returns of testing assets are determined by differences in the underlying assets’ exposure to systematic risk innovation. The empirical evidence also shows that exogenous innovation in Fama-French (FF) risk factors leaves out important cross-sectional information about expected returns, and additionally, the FF-factor betas have lower cross-sectional power than the proxy for innovation betas. The cross-sectional differences in the test portfolios’ sensitivity to instruments such as the short-term Treasury bill rate and term spread survive the presence of FF-factor betas.Originality/valueIn contrast to the existing literature, this study uses structural innovations that are uncorrelated and thus exogenous in nature. The author creates test portfolios that display a wide range of average returns and are unlikely to show spurious variability in risk exposures. Unlike the existing research, where size, value and accrual anomalies have been analyzed in isolation, this study examine these pricing patterns jointly, focusing on the possible contributing role of structural innovation in economy-wide predictor variables. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this paper is the first attempt to link the sensitivity of portfolios sorted on size, book-to-market and accruals to exogenous structural innovation.

Is there a priced risk factor associated with conservatism?

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 545-561 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kerstin Lopatta ◽  
Felix Canitz ◽  
Christian Fieberg
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factor ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Systematic Risk ◽  
Factor Loading ◽  
Related Factor ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Conditional Conservatism ◽  
The Cross

Purpose García Lara et al. (2011) argue that there is a conservatism-related priced risk factor in US stock returns. To put this to the test, the authors aim to analyze whether the conditional conservatism effect comes from the loading on a conditional conservatism-related factor-mimicking portfolio (systematic risk) or the conservatism characteristic itself. Design/methodology/approach The authors form characteristic-balanced portfolios from dependent sorts of stocks on the firm’s degree of conservatism and the firm’s loading on the conservatism-related factor-mimicking portfolio as proposed by Daniel and Titman (1997) and Davis et al. (2000). Findings The tests indicate that it is the conditional conservatism characteristic rather than the factor loading that explains the cross-sectional differences in average stock returns. Consequently, they do not find evidence for a conservatism-related priced risk factor. Originality/value This finding suggests that investors misvalue the conservatism characteristic and casts doubt on the rational risk explanation as proposed by García Lara et al. (2011).

Liquidity and real estate asset pricing: a pan-European study

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-86 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Scholz ◽  
Stephan Lang ◽  
Wolfgang Schaefers
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Systematic Risk ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Factors ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – Understanding the pricing of real estate equities is a central objective of real estate research. This paper aims to investigate the impact of liquidity on European real estate equity returns, after accounting for well-documented systematic risk factors. Design/methodology/approach – Based on risk factors derived from general equity data, the authors extend the Fama-French time-series regression approach by a liquidity factor, using a pan-European sample of 272 real estate equities. Findings – The empirical results indicate that liquidity is a significant pricing factor in real estate stock returns, even after controlling for market, size and book-to-market factors. In addition, the authors detect that real estate stock returns load predominantly positively on the liquidity risk factor, suggesting that real estate equities tend to behave like illiquid common equities. These findings are underpinned by a series of robustness checks. Running a comparative analysis with alternative factor models, the authors further demonstrate that the liquidity-augmented asset-pricing model is most appropriate for explaining European real estate stock returns. Research limitations/implications – The inclusion of sentiment and downside risk factors could provide further insights into real estate asset pricing in European capital markets. Originality/value – This is the first study to examine the role of liquidity as a systematic risk factor in a pan-European setting.

Quality investing and the cross-section of country returns

2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 281-301 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Zaremba
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Quality Metrics ◽  
Momentum Strategies ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Country Level ◽  
The Cross ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The main purpose of this study is to examine the role of quality as a determinant of a cross-sectional variation in country-level stock returns. The study attempts to address the question: Is there any special premium for top-quality stock markets with decent profitability, indebtedness and liquidity ratios? Design/methodology/approach The computations are based on the listings of 66 country portfolios over the period between 2000 and 2013. Long/short country portfolios from sorts on characteristics related to quality are examined with asset-pricing models. Findings The inter-market variation in returns may be explained with profitability and debt ratios: the more profitable and the less indebted is the stock market, the better is its performance. Moreover, the performance of country-level value, size and momentum strategies may be improved by double sorting on quality characteristics. Practical implications The practical implications include such issues as the global asset allocation, the development of investment products, asset pricing and investment performance measurement. The country selection strategies that are based on leverage and profitability prove to be a useful tool for investors with a global investment mandate. Furthermore, additional sorting on quality metrics may markedly improve the performance of inter-market value, size and momentum strategies. Originality/value This paper examines the role of quality metrics related to financial leverage, profitability and liquidity in explaining the cross-sectional variation in country returns.

Can the Cross-Sectional Variation in Expected Stock Returns Explain Momentum?

2009 ◽  
Vol 44 (4) ◽  
pp. 777-794 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Bulkley ◽  
Vivekanand Nawosah
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Sample Period ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Holding Period ◽  
Expected Stock Returns ◽  
The Cross

AbstractIt has been hypothesized that momentum might be rationally explained as a consequence of the cross-sectional variation of unconditional expected returns. Stocks with relatively high unconditional expected returns will on average outperform in both the portfolio formation period and in the subsequent holding period. We evaluate this explanation by first removing unconditional expected returns for each stock from raw returns and then testing for momentum in the resulting series. We measure the unconditional expected return on each stock as its mean return in the whole sample period. We find momentum effects vanish in demeaned returns.

Idiosyncratic Volatility and the Cross Section of Expected Returns

2008 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
Turan G. Bali ◽  
Nusret Cakici
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Cross Section ◽  
Idiosyncratic Volatility ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Portfolio Returns ◽  
Expected Stock Returns ◽  
The Cross ◽  
Data Frequency

AbstractThis paper examines the cross-sectional relation between idiosyncratic volatility and expected stock returns. The results indicate that i) the data frequency used to estimate idiosyncratic volatility, ii) the weighting scheme used to compute average portfolio returns, iii) the breakpoints utilized to sort stocks into quintile portfolios, and iv) using a screen for size, price, and liquidity play critical roles in determining the existence and significance of a relation between idiosyncratic risk and the cross section of expected returns. Portfoliolevel analyses based on two different measures of idiosyncratic volatility (estimated using daily and monthly data), three weighting schemes (value-weighted, equal-weighted, inverse volatility-weighted), three breakpoints (CRSP, NYSE, equal market share), and two different samples (NYSE/AMEX/NASDAQ and NYSE) indicate that no robustly significant relation exists between idiosyncratic volatility and expected returns.

Cross section of stock returns on Shari’ah-compliant stocks: evidence from Pakistan

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 282-302 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salman Ahmed Shaikh ◽  
Mohd Adib Ismail ◽  
Abdul Ghafar Ismail ◽  
Shahida Shahimi ◽  
Muhammad Hakimi Mohd. Shafiai
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Cross Section ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Five Factor Model ◽  
Value Premium ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Cross ◽  
Three Factor

Purpose This paper aims to study the cross section of expected returns on Shari’ah-compliant stocks in Pakistan by using single- and multi-factor asset pricing models. Design/methodology/approach To estimate cross section of expected returns of Shari’ah-compliant stocks, the study uses capital asset pricing model (CAPM), Fama-French three-factor model and Fama-French five-factor model. Data for the period 2001-2015 on 217 companies are used. For the market portfolio, PSX-100 and Dow Jones Islamic Index for Pakistan are used. Findings The study could not find empirical support for CAPM using Lintner (1965), Black et al. (1972) and Fama and Macbeth (1973) approach. Nonetheless, the relation between beta and returns is positive in up-market and negative in down-market. The results of Fama-French three-factor and five-factor models suggest that size premium is positive and significant for explaining the cross section of stock returns of small size stocks, whereas value premium is positive and significant for explaining the cross section of returns of high value stocks. Practical implications The results suggest that fund managers can use Shari’ah-compliant stocks for portfolio diversification and for offering specialized investments given the positive market excess returns and the existence of size and value premium on Shari’ah-compliant stocks. Originality/value This is the first study on Fama-French (2015) five-factor model for Islamic capital markets in Pakistan.

Do residual earnings price ratios explain cross-sectional variations in stock returns?

2015 ◽  
Vol 41 (7) ◽  
pp. 692-713
Author(s):  
Donna M. Dudney ◽  
Benjamas Jirasakuldech ◽  
Thomas Zorn ◽  
Riza Emekter
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Risk Ratio ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Absolute Value ◽  
Coefficients Of Variation ◽  
The Absolute ◽  
The Cross

Purpose – Variations in price/earnings (P/E) ratios are explained in a rational expectations framework by a number of fundamental factors, such as differences in growth expectations and risk. The purpose of this paper is to use a regression model and data from four sample periods (1996, 2000, 2001, and 2008) to separate the earnings/price (E/P) ratio into two parts – the portion of E/P that is related to fundamental determinants and a residual portion that cannot be explained by fundamentals. The authors use the residual portion as an indicator of over or undervaluation; a large negative residual is consistent with overvaluation while a large positive residual implies undervaluation. The authors find that stocks with larger negative residuals are associated with lower subsequent returns and reward-to-risk ratio, while stocks with larger positive residuals are associated with higher subsequent returns and reward-to-risk ratio. This pattern persists for both one and two-year holding periods. Design/methodology/approach – This study uses a regression methodology to decompose E/P into two parts – the portion of E/P than is related to fundamental determinants and a residual portion that cannot be explained by fundamentals. Focussing on the second portion allows us to isolate a potential indicator of stock over or undervaluation. Using a sample of stocks from four time periods (1996, 2000, 2001, and 2008, the authors calculate the residuals from a regression model of the fundamental determinants of cross-sectional variation in E/P. These residuals are then ranked and used to divide the stock sample into deciles, with the first decile containing the stocks with the highest negative residuals (indicating overvaluation) and the tenth decile containing stocks with the highest positive residuals (indicating undervaluation). Total returns for subsequent one and two-year holding periods are then calculated for each decile portfolio. Findings – The authors find that high positive residual stocks substantially outperform high negative residual stocks. This is true even after risk adjustments to the portfolio returns. The residual E/P appears to accurately predict relative stock performance with a relatively high degree of accuracy. Research limitations/implications – The findings of this paper provide some important implications for practitioners and investors, particularly for the stock selection, fund allocations, and portfolio strategies. Practitioners can still rely on a valuation measure such as E/P as a useful tool for making successful investment decisions and enhance portfolio performance. Investors can earn abnormal returns by allocating more weights on stocks with high E/P multiples. Portfolios of high E/P multiples or undervalued stocks are found to enjoy higher risk-adjusted returns after controlling for the fundamental factors. The most beneficial performance holding period return will be for a relatively short period of time ranging from one to two years. Relying on the E/P valuation ratios for a long-term investment may add little value. Practical implications – Practitioners and academics have long relied on the P/E ratio as an indicator of relative overvaluation. An increase in the absolute value of P/E, however, does not always indicate overvaluation. Instead, a high P/E ratio can simply reflect changes in the fundamental factors that affect P/E. The authors find that stocks with larger negative residuals are associated with lower subsequent returns and coefficients of variation, while stocks with larger positive residuals are associated with higher subsequent returns and coefficients of variation. This pattern persists for both one and two-year holding periods. Originality/value – The P/E ratio is widely used, particularly by practitioners, as a measure of relative stock valuation. The ratio has been used in both cross-sectional and time series comparisons as a metric for determining whether stocks are under or overvalued. An increase in the absolute value of P/E, however, does not always indicate overvaluation. Instead, a high P/E ratio can simply reflect changes in the fundamental factors that affect P/E. If interest rates are relatively low, for example, the time series P/E should be correspondingly higher. Similarly, if the risk of a stock is low, that stock’s P/E ratio should be higher than the P/E ratios of less risky stocks. The authors examine the cross-sectional behavior of the P/E (the authors actually use the E/P ratio for reasons explained below) after controlling for factors that are likely to fundamentally affect this ratio. These factors include the dividend payout ratio, risk measures, growth measures, and factors such as size and book to market that have been identified by Fama and French (1993) and others as important in explaining the cross-sectional variation in common stock returns. To control for changes in these primary determinants of E/P, the authors use a simple regression model. The residuals from this model represent the unexplained cross-sectional variation in E/P. The authors argue that this unexplained variation is a more reliable indicator than the raw E/P ratio of the relative under or overvaluation of stocks.

scholarly journals Idiosyncratic Volatility and Cross-section of Stock Returns: Evidences from India

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Prashant Sharma ◽  
Brajesh Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Cross Section ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Idiosyncratic Volatility ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The Cross ◽  
Highly Correlated ◽  
Indian Stock Market ◽  
The Relationship

<p>The present study examines the cross-sectional pricing ability of idiosyncratic volatility (IV) in Indian stock market and investigates the relationship amongst expected idiosyncratic volatility (EI), unexpected idiosyncratic volatility (UI), and cross-section of stocks returns. The study uses ARIMA (2, 0, 1) model to IV into EI and UI. The stocks returns are regressed on IV, EI and UI using Newey-West (1987) corrections, in order to investigate their empirical relationship.  The study finds that IV is positively related with stock returns. Further the IV significantly explains the cross-section of stock returns in Indian context. After imposing control over UI, as it is highly correlated with unexpected returns, the inter-temporal relationship between EI and expected returns turns out to be positive.</p>

Information uncertainties and asset pricing puzzles: risk or mispricing?

2015 ◽  
Vol 41 (12) ◽  
pp. 1280-1297
Author(s):  
Keming Li ◽  
Mohammad Riaz Uddin ◽  
J. David Diltz
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Information Uncertainty ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Short Sale Constraints ◽  
Short Sale ◽  
The Cross ◽  
Asset Pricing Puzzles

Purpose – Prior research has documented the role of information uncertainty in the cross-sectional variation in stock returns. Miller (1977) hypothesizes that if information uncertainty is caused by differences of opinion, prices will reflect only the positive beliefs due to short-sale constraints. These anomalous stock price behaviors may result from mispricing. In contrast, Merton (1974) asserts that default risk is a function of the uncertainty in the asset value process. Information uncertainty may be subsumed by credit or default risk. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – The authors employ various sorting techniques and Fama-MacBeth Regressions to test the hypotheses. Findings – The authors provide empirical evidence consistent with Merton’s (1974) default risk hypothesis and inconsistent with Miller’s (1977) mispricing hypothesis. Research limitations/implications – Risk aversion and not misplacing is the primary factor driving information-related anomalies in equities markets. Practical implications – It would be quite difficult to find arbitrage opportunities in equities markets because there appears to be little, if any, mis-pricing due to information uncertainties. Originality/value – This study provides important information about the primary underlying information-related source of certain empirical anomalies in the cross-section of stock returns.

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