AssessingSukukdefaults using value-at-risk techniques

2018 ◽  
Vol 44 (6) ◽  
pp. 665-687 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nafis Alam ◽  
Muhammad Bhatti ◽  
James T.F. Wong
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Secondary Market ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
Bond Issuers ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
Fundamental Value

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the default characteristics of Sukuk issues by corporate firms in Malaysia using value-at-risk (VaR) techniques over a period of 16 years from 2000 to 2015 and across nine economic sectors.Design/methodology/approachThe paper employs non-parametric and Monte Carlo simulations to estimate Sukuk defaults.FindingsThe authors analyses revealed that the VaR predictions were fairly consistent with the ratings provided by credit rating agencies, despite the limited tradability of Sukuk in the secondary market. The study was able to demonstrate that Sukuk is not riskier than conventional bonds in the Malaysian context.Research limitations/implicationsThe research findings suggested that VaR values will depend on the fundamental value of a firm based on the considerations of market, credit and operational risk. It does not rely on the type of debt instrument, whether a Sukuk or conventional bonds.Practical implicationsThe use of Sukuk along with conventional bonds as debt instruments creates opportunities for investors and bond issuers globally.Originality/valueAlthough Sukuk has generated much interest among financial market players, studies are lacking on how to predict Sukuk defaults and whether Sukuk has the same risk profile compared to conventional bonds.

Value-at-risk performance in emerging and developed countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 591-612
Author(s):  
Luiz Eduardo Gaio ◽  
Tabajara Pimenta Júnior ◽  
Fabiano Guasti Lima ◽  
Ivan Carlin Passos ◽  
Nelson Oliveira Stefanelli
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Risk Estimation ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Emerging Countries ◽  
Copula Functions ◽  
Predictive Capacity ◽  
Arch Models ◽  
Content Type

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the predictive capacity of market risk estimation models in times of financial crises. Design/methodology/approach For this, value-at-risk (VaR) valuation models applied to the daily returns of portfolios composed of stock indexes of developed and emerging countries were tested. The Historical Simulation VaR model, multivariate ARCH models (BEKK, VECH and constant conditional correlation), artificial neural networks and copula functions were tested. The data sample refers to the periods of two international financial crises, the Asian Crisis of 1997, and the US Sub Prime Crisis of 2008. Findings The results pointed out that the multivariate ARCH models (VECH and BEKK) and Copula-Clayton had similar performance, with good adjustments in 100 percent of the tests. It was not possible to perceive significant differences between the adjustments for developed and emerging countries and of the crisis and normal periods, which was different to what was expected. Originality/value Previous studies focus on the estimation of VaR by a group of models. One of the contributions of this paper is to use several forms of estimation.

Russia's central bank will anticipate sanction risks

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
Secondary Market ◽  
Foreseeable Future ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Fundamentals ◽  
Sovereign Credit Rating

Significance Because the risk of sanctions was priced into Russian bond prices and the ruble exchange rate, the market reaction to the measures announced on April 15 was muted. US investors can still buy and hold OFZs and Eurobonds on the secondary market, but the prospect of further restrictions are possible. Impacts Sanctions risks will weigh down Russia's sovereign credit rating for the foreseeable future. Diminished liquidity in the bond market will make it difficult to price new Russian corporate debt, particularly for new issuers. Strong economic fundamentals and high foreign reserves will encourage foreign investors to return once uncertainty subsides.

A comparative study of economic growth as a key determinant of sovereign credit ratings in Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Misheck Mutize ◽  
McBride Peter Nkhalamba
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Credit Ratings ◽  
Credit Rating Agencies ◽  
African Union ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
Sovereign Credit ◽  
Sovereign Credit Ratings

PurposeThis study is a comparative analysis of the magnitude of economic growth as a key determinant of long-term foreign currency sovereign credit ratings in 30 countries in Africa, Europe, Asia and Latin America from 2010 to 2018.Design/methodology/approachThe analysis applies the fixed effects (FE) and random effects (RE) panel least squares (PLS) models.FindingsThe authors find that the magnitude economic coefficients are marginally small for African countries compared to other developing countries in Asia, Europe and Latin America. Results of the probit and logit binary estimation models show positive coefficients for economic growth sub-factors for non-African countries (developing and developed) compared to negative coefficients for African countries.Practical implicationsThese findings mean that, an increase in economic growth in Africa does not significantly increase the likelihood that sovereign credit ratings will be upgraded. This implies that there is lack of uniformity in the application of the economic growth determinant despite the claims of a consistent framework by rating agencies. Thus, macroeconomic factors are relatively less important in determining country's risk profile in Africa than in other developing and developed countries.Originality/valueFirst, studies that investigate the accuracy of sovereign credit rating indicators and risk factors in Africa are rare. This study is a key literature at the time when the majority of African countries are exploring the window of sovereign bonds as an alternative funding model to the traditional concessionary borrowings from multilateral institutions. On the other hand, the persistent poor rating is driving the cost of sovereign bonds to unreasonably high levels, invariably threatening their hopes of diversifying funding options. Second, there is criticism that the rating assessments of the credit rating agencies are biased in favour of developed countries and there is a gap in literature on studies that explore the whether the credit rating agencies are biased against African countries. This paper thus explores the rationale behind the African Union Decision Assembly/AU/Dec.631 (XXVIII) adopted by the 28th Ordinary Session of the African Union held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia in January 2017 (African Union, 2017), directing its specialized governance agency, the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM), to provide support to its Member States in the field of international credit rating agencies. The Assembly of African Heads of State and Government highlight that African countries are facing the challenges of credit downgrades despite an average positive economic growth. Lastly, the paper makes contribution to the argument that the majority of African countries are unfairly rated by international credit rating agencies, raising a discussion of the possibility of establishing a Pan-African credit rating institution.

Vulnerability to food insecurity in rural Punjab, Pakistan

2018 ◽  
Vol 120 (9) ◽  
pp. 2088-2101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Khalid Bashir ◽  
Steven Schilizzi ◽  
Rohan Sadler ◽  
Ghaffar Ali
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Security Analysis ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Conditional Value At Risk ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Period Data ◽  
Food Deficiency

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to measure the vulnerability to food insecurity in rural Punjab, Pakistan. Design/methodology/approach Primary data of 1,152 households were collected. The extent of food deficiency was measured using dietary intake assessment method (seven days). Value at Risk (VaR) and conditional Value at Risk (cVaR), a method widely used for risk analysis in financial institutes, were applied to assess the vulnerability to food insecurity. Findings In total, 23 percent of the sample households were measured as food deficient. The VaR and cVaR results identified that the lowest 3 percentiles (up to 30 percent) were at risk to become food deficient without any seasonal shortages. In case of shocks, up till sixth percentiles (60 percent) will be as at risk of food deficiency. This study suggests that multi-period data, at least quarterly, are required to predict vulnerability. It is suggested that a blanket policy is not a good approach. Once the most vulnerable households are identified, a targeted approach must be opted. Originality/value Generalizing the results of one week’s calorie calculations may produce biased results that may mislead the policy process. A multi-period data collection is costly and cumbersome. The application of VaR and cVaR helps overcome this issue. Furthermore, this is one of the initial studies to apply these methods to food security analysis.

scholarly journals Comparative analysis between global sukuk and bond indices: value-at-risk approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1245-1256
Author(s):  
Rubaiyat Ahsan Bhuiyan ◽  
Maya Puspa ◽  
Buerhan Saiti ◽  
Gairuzazmi Mat Ghani
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Management Tool ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Investment Portfolio ◽  
Financial Contracts ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Approach ◽  
Bond Indices

Purpose Sukuk is an innovative financial instrument with a flexible structure based on Islamic financial contracts, unlike a bond which is based on the structure of a loan imposed with interest. With the notion that sukuk differs considerably from the conventional bonds in terms of risks related to investment, this study aims to examine whether the sukuk market is different from conventional bond markets based on the value-at-risk (VaR) approach. Design/methodology/approach The VaR of a portfolio consists of sukuk and bond indices and is undertaken to determine whether there is any reduction in the VaR amount through the inclusion of the sukuk index in the portfolio. The analysis is undertaken based on the developed and emerging market bond and sukuk indices from January 2010 to December 2015. Findings This paper examines whether the VaR of sukuk market differs from conventional bond markets by using fundamental techniques. It was observed that the VaR amount of sukuk indices is comparatively much lower than the VaR of bond indices in all the cases. Including the sukuk index with each bond index can reduce the VaR of the portfolio by around 30 to 50 per cent for all the developed and emerging market bond indices. Research limitations/implications This research is limited to covering six years of data. Nonetheless, it is able to provide findings which are believed to be useful for the market players. Practical implications This study unveils attractive opportunities in terms of diversification benefits of sukuk indices for international fixed-income portfolios. Originality/value The VaR method is a useful risk management tool. This study uses this method to emphasise the significant reduction of risks and diversification benefits that sukuk investment could offer by including it in the investment portfolio.

US rating agency reform to rest on enforcement

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Business Model ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Annual Report ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Credit Ratings ◽  
Securities And Exchange Commission ◽  
Political Support ◽  
Political Debate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rating Agencies

Subject The latest annual report of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on credit ratings agencies (CRAs). Significance The latest annual report of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on credit rating agencies (CRAs) suggests that practices that contributed to the 2007-08 financial crisis persist, and that the prevailing CRA business model continues to incentivise high credit ratings rather than accurate ones. The underlying conflict of interest inherent in the prevailing CRA business model is well-recognised, but there is a lack of broad political support to address the problem. Impacts The report will increase pressure on the SEC to strengthen its CRA enforcement policy. The report is shaping the terms of political debate and providing fodder, especially for Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders. Renewed financial market turbulence and strains in the global economy could provide fresh tests for CRAs.

Chile spending commitments may hamper fiscal prudence

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Credit Rating Agencies ◽  
Government Budget ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
The Government ◽  
Fiscal Prudence

Subject The draft 2019 budget. Significance The government budget for 2019, announced by President Sebastian Pinera on September 29, is the most austere in almost a decade. It aims to restore Chile’s long-standing reputation for exemplary fiscal conduct, which in recent years has been undermined by increases in government spending that outstrip GDP growth, and the resulting increase in borrowing. Impacts Credit rating agencies have indicated that the draft budget is in line with their concerns about Chile’s rising borrowing requirement. The ongoing decline in fiscal revenues from copper underlines Chile’s need to diversify its economy. The government will be hard-pressed to meet its fiscal goals if, as current forecasts suggest, GDP growth weakens through to 2020.

Regulating the Chinese credit rating agencies: progress and challenges

2015 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 66-80 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Bian
Keyword(s):  
Credit Rating ◽  
Legal Framework ◽  
Development Stage ◽  
Regulatory Regime ◽  
Credit Rating Agencies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
Depth Analysis ◽  
Effective Level ◽  
Full Dimension

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the emerging Chinese credit rating agencies (CRAs), and their development, regulatory regime and challenges. The Chinese financial system has made many improvements; in particular, the regulatory regime has reached a more effective level. However, it should be admitted that some aspects still require further development. Compared with other developed markets, the Chinese credit rating industry is still young. Under these circumstances, questions are raised about the performance of the CRAs in China. Whether the legal framework is effective enough? A further point, in terms of the development, is what are the major obstacles lying ahead for the Chinese CRAs? Design/methodology/approach – This paper will concentrate on the study of Chinese CRAs. Starting with a brief introduction and analysis on the Chinese CRAs, it will further examine the rating methodologies of the Chinese CRAs. Following this, the regulatory regimes will be analyzed in detail, from the perspectives of the securities, banking and insurance market. Moreover, the paper will identify the key problems under the current regulatory regime. Last but not least, a conclusion and some future suggestions for the development of the regulatory regime will also be made based on the earlier observations and study. Findings – The current development stage and future reform requirement of the Chinese credit rating industry. Originality/value – Provide a full dimension and in depth analysis on the Chinese credit rating industry.

scholarly journals Value-at-risk predictive performance: a comparison between the CaViaR and GARCH models for the MILA and ASEAN-5 stock markets

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramona Serrano Bautista ◽  
José Antonio Nuñez Mora
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Latin America ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Market Risk ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Garch Models ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Emerging Stock Markets

PurposeThis paper tests the accuracies of the models that predict the Value-at-Risk (VaR) for the Market Integrated Latin America (MILA) and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) emerging stock markets during crisis periods.Design/methodology/approachMany VaR estimation models have been presented in the literature. In this paper, the VaR is estimated using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity, EGARCH and GJR-GARCH models under normal, skewed-normal, Student-t and skewed-Student-t distributional assumptions and compared with the predictive performance of the Conditional Autoregressive Value-at-Risk (CaViaR) considering the four alternative specifications proposed by Engle and Manganelli (2004).FindingsThe results support the robustness of the CaViaR model in out-sample VaR forecasting for the MILA and ASEAN-5 emerging stock markets in crisis periods. This evidence is based on the results of the backtesting approach that analyzed the predictive performance of the models according to their accuracy.Originality/valueAn important issue in market risk is the inaccurate estimation of risk since different VaR models lead to different risk measures, which means that there is not yet an accepted method for all situations and markets. In particular, quantifying and forecasting the risk for the MILA and ASEAN-5 stock markets is crucial for evaluating global market risk since the MILA is the biggest stock exchange in Latin America and the ASEAN region accounted for 11% of the total global foreign direct investment inflows in 2014. Furthermore, according to the Asian Development Bank, this region is projected to average 7% annual growth by 2025.

Russia readies for long economic struggle

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Social Spending ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Plan ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
European Trade ◽  
The Government ◽  
Key Industries ◽  
Sovereign Credit Rating

Significance The currency, which has fallen 14% against the dollar so far this year, fell another 3% in morning European trade, sinking below 70 to the dollar. The rate cut comes after the January 26 downgrade by international ratings agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) of Russia's sovereign credit rating to junk status (from BBB- to BB+) and the January 28 announcement of an economic plan that will see the government spend 2.34 trillion rubles (35 billion dollars) to bolster key industries, including banks, and to boost its troubled economy particularly in the regions. As part of the measures, Moscow plans a 10% cut in the budgets of all but a handful of ministries. Defence, agriculture and social spending are spared. Impacts Discussions between liberals are not as important to economic policy as they were. Further measures to boost the economy are likely in order to forestall more rating agencies downgrading Russia to junk status. The Security Council will exert greater influence over economic policy, further marginalising economic liberals.

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