Uzbekistan parliament power heightens tensions risk

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Domestic Security ◽  
Security Service ◽  
Democratic Change ◽  
Presidential Succession ◽  
Run Up

Significance Parliamentary elections in December once again highlighted the executive's firm grip on power and an overall lack of democratic change. On January 30, Karimov will turn 77, yet he is still standing as one of four candidates in the upcoming presidential election. Impacts Uzbekistan's relations with the West will not improve markedly because of lack of progress in democratisation and liberalisation. The security service will be a major force in the presidential succession and a potential power vacuum. A tighter domestic security clampdown is likely in the run-up to the March presidential election.

Fear of Russia will drive Belarus's defence policy

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Military Force ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Service ◽  
Intelligence Services ◽  
Defence Policy ◽  
Willingness To Use ◽  
News Interview

Significance The events in Crimea and Donbas have demonstrated Russia's willingness to use military force to influence neighbouring states. Recent months have seen growing disputes between Belarus and Russia over trade, including allegations that Minsk is helping to evade Moscow's ban on EU foodstuffs with re-exports. Minsk's courting of warmer ties with the West also rankles Moscow. Concern is growing in Minsk that Moscow may intervene if the Kremlin feels necessary. Impacts Fear of Russia may lead the Belarusian security service to develop a covert relationship with Poland's intelligence services. Belarus's relationship with Ukraine will remain cordial as both countries realise their shared vulnerability to Russia. Chinese President Xi Jinping's May 10 Minsk visit and Lukashenka's recent Chinese news interview are highlighting warming ties.

Nazarbayev's re-election will boost Kazakh 'siloviki'

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Strategic Alliance ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Intention To Stay ◽  
The West ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Office ◽  
High Degree

Significance Three candidates competed for the country's supreme political office in the election on April 26. Unsurprisingly, Nazarbayev (74) won by a landslide, obtaining 97.7% of the total votes cast; the official turnout was 95.2%. This is the fifth presidential election in Kazakhstan since it gained independence in 1991. Nazarbayev's triumphant re-election suggests he intends to stay in power so long as his health permits. The prospect of an early succession is, therefore, again indefinitely delayed. Impacts Nazarbayev's re-election and apparent intention to stay in power are positive signs for foreign investors interested in political stability. His win may facilitate implementing anti-crisis measures thanks to domestic stability and a high degree of political centralisation. Kazakhstan's strategic alliance with Russia in the Eurasian Union is unlikely to experience major changes after Nazarbayev's re-election. Astana will continue to pursue a multi-vector foreign policy aimed at good relations with Russia, China, the West and Islamic countries.

All factors point to left-right coalition in Portugal

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Opinion Poll ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Electoral Cycle ◽  
Opinion Polls

Subject The outlook for the October 4 parliamentary election. Significance The October 4 parliamentary election will be the first since Portugal exited its euro-area/IMF bailout. The poll launches a Portuguese electoral cycle which includes the January 2016 presidential election, and a series of parliamentary elections in euro-area post-bailout states, with Spain and Ireland to follow. Opinion polls suggest a tight race between the governing two-party centre-right alliance and the main opposition Socialists (PS), but -- in contrast to other bailout states -- no breakthrough by any new or radical force. Impacts Given the closeness of parties' opinion poll standings, the campaign period could be decisive. Whatever its make-up, the next government is likely to be committed to fiscal consolidation and Portugal's post-bailout obligations. An election win for Portugal's governing centre-right would be a pre-election fillip for its counterpart in Spain.

Uzbek security service will be succession kingmaker

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Force ◽  
Security Service ◽  
Presidential Succession ◽  
State Group ◽  
Government Security

Subject Uzbekistan's SNB. Significance Uzbekistan's National Security Service (SNB), one of the least-reformed descendants of the Soviet KGB still in existence, has become a crucial buttress to the regime of President Islam Karimov. The SNB is the country's pre-eminent security body and has huge influence not only in government but also in business and industry. The SNB is a powerful and ruthless political force. It is at present able to control any challenges to the regime from the population or the elite, even though the risks of both are increasing as uncertainty over the presidential succession persists and Uzbekistan's economy suffers from Russia's slowdown. Impacts For the time being, the SNB will be the main recipient of government security-related funding. In the immediate future, it will be a far more powerful body than the army or police. Fears of an Afghanistan-related security crisis and Islamic State group recruiting may force closer working with Kazakhstan's KNB.

Factors domestic and foreign will slow Georgia's GDP

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Export Competitiveness ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Economic Slowdown ◽  
Remittance Flows ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Household Incomes ◽  
Trade And Investment

Subject Georgia's economic slowdown. Significance Growth is expected to slow sharply this year, owing to the ramifications of the Russian recession and the weak regional outlook, which has hit remittance flows, trade and investment. Inflationary pressures started to pick up in the second quarter, undermining household incomes. The external sector's performance is also weak. Impacts Extended EU sanctions and weak global oil prices dampening Russian growth -- or further Greek complications -- will limit remittance flows. Government credibility will be hurt in the run-up to 2016 parliamentary elections unless it can reverse Georgia's GDP and inflation trends. Similar steep falls in currencies of regional trading partners will limit the boost to export competitiveness from lari depreciation.

Prospects for Russian politics in 2022

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Communist Party ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Domestic Policy ◽  
Constitutional Change ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Stable Conditions ◽  
Russian Politics

Subject Prospects for Russian politics in 2022. Significance Now that the Kremlin has dealt with the immediate domestic policy priorities of constitutional change and parliamentary elections, 2022 will be a year of consolidation and continuity. The administration's focus will be on preparing what it regards as optimal, stable conditions for the presidential election in 2024. The Communist Party has a chance to build popularity among anti-government voters, but may not be bold enough given the Kremlin's limited tolerance for rebellious behaviour.

Young people’s anxieties may affect Turkish politics

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Freedom Of Expression ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Election Cycle ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Turkish Politics ◽  
New Ideas ◽  
Run Up ◽  
First Time

Significance Some 13 million voters will be in the 18-27 age group when the next presidential and parliamentary elections take place, unless they are called early. About half will be voting in national elections for the first time. Young people in Turkey have become more pessimistic about their own futures and the future of the country. Impacts Erdogan and the AKP may increase their focus on youth in the run-up to the election: fielding young candidates may be a useful tactic. The opposition could try to offer credible new ideas in the area of employment and the economy. Focusing on corruption and inequality, women’s rights and protection, and freedom of expression could also attract young people’s interest. Young people’s disengagement could continue after the 2023-24 election cycle, particularly if nothing changes and no new leaders emerge.

Cyber risks overshadow China-US summit

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Technical Standards ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Cyber Affairs

Subject Cybersecurity tensions in the China-US relationship. Significance In the run-up to President Xi Jinping's state visit to Washington later this month, US officials have discussed plans to impose economic sanctions on Chinese organisations and individuals found to have engaged in cyberattacks against US targets. The national security and economic implications of cyber tensions are becoming increasingly manifest while space for an agreement seems to be shrinking. Impacts Cyber affairs will be one of the most important bellwethers for the broader China-US relationship. There is potential for escalation and spillover, particularly given the growing prominence of hawkish voices on both sides. There is a long-term risk of diverging technical standards. The approach of the US presidential election makes compromises more difficult.

Solih’s government could fragment in the Maldives

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Military Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
The Government

Subject The new Maldivian government. Significance Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, inaugurated in November after winning the presidential election in September, last month visited Delhi as part of efforts to re-establish the Maldives’s traditional ‘India First’ policy. Solih’s government, an alliance of parties that coalesced to oppose authoritarian, pro-China former President Abdulla Yameen, is implementing domestic reforms at pace. Parliamentary elections are scheduled for April. Impacts The re-entry into politics of formerly jailed politicians and officials will increase factionalism in the government. Indian influence in the Maldives will grow while Chinese influence will diminish, with Delhi likely to increase military cooperation. The Maldives will formally rejoin the Commonwealth.

Zagreb will leverage Belgrade's EU bid

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
The Icj ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Miscarriage Of Justice

Significance Many politicians and people who suffered in the wars of the 1990s in both countries will see the ICJ decision as a miscarriage of justice. The current tense relations between Belgrade and Zagreb after Croatia's presidential election could prove to be not a temporary downturn but a more ominous trend. Impacts With nationalist rhetoric set to rise ahead of Croatian parliamentary elections, relations will continue to deteriorate in 2015. The HDZ's likely ascent to power in Croatia makes improvement of relations less likely. Serbia could easily find its EU path blocked by Croatia over unresolved bilateral issues in the near future.

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