Fear of Russia will drive Belarus's defence policy

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Military Force ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Service ◽  
Intelligence Services ◽  
Defence Policy ◽  
Willingness To Use ◽  
News Interview

Significance The events in Crimea and Donbas have demonstrated Russia's willingness to use military force to influence neighbouring states. Recent months have seen growing disputes between Belarus and Russia over trade, including allegations that Minsk is helping to evade Moscow's ban on EU foodstuffs with re-exports. Minsk's courting of warmer ties with the West also rankles Moscow. Concern is growing in Minsk that Moscow may intervene if the Kremlin feels necessary. Impacts Fear of Russia may lead the Belarusian security service to develop a covert relationship with Poland's intelligence services. Belarus's relationship with Ukraine will remain cordial as both countries realise their shared vulnerability to Russia. Chinese President Xi Jinping's May 10 Minsk visit and Lukashenka's recent Chinese news interview are highlighting warming ties.

Belarus will try to square Western ties with Russia

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Government Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
The West ◽  
Policy Document ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Policy ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject Belarus's attempts to court the EU and the United States. Significance The Belarusian government has shifted from an exclusively Russia-oriented foreign policy to a campaign to mend fences with the West. Government statements and a defence policy document speak of equal, non-adversarial relationships, while President Alexander Lukashenka has encouraged greater engagement with the EU and United States. Impacts Western governments will grant more legitimacy to the government. Opposition parties will find it harder to cite international isolation as a failed government policy. The EU's Eastern Partnership may be revitalised by its emerging role as conduit for ties with Belarus.

Uzbekistan parliament power heightens tensions risk

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Domestic Security ◽  
Security Service ◽  
Democratic Change ◽  
Presidential Succession ◽  
Run Up

Significance Parliamentary elections in December once again highlighted the executive's firm grip on power and an overall lack of democratic change. On January 30, Karimov will turn 77, yet he is still standing as one of four candidates in the upcoming presidential election. Impacts Uzbekistan's relations with the West will not improve markedly because of lack of progress in democratisation and liberalisation. The security service will be a major force in the presidential succession and a potential power vacuum. A tighter domestic security clampdown is likely in the run-up to the March presidential election.

Disinformation is a rising security threat to the West

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Social Media ◽  
The United States ◽  
Step Change ◽  
Media Discourse ◽  
Security Threat ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Synthetic Media ◽  
Victims Of Bullying

Significance Articles containing the bogus quotes were shared across social media globally. The case illustrates how disinformation is created and spread for malign influence, and its ease of entry into social media discourse, which makes it so difficult to untangle and counter. Impacts Political polarisation within the United States is impeding a 'whole of society' response. Russian and Chinese disinformation campaigns will claim the two nations are falsely accused victims of bullying by envious foes. Artificial intelligence-created synthetic media such as deepfakes will enable a step-change in the sophistication of 'infowars'.

Entry barriers could easily thwart China’s tech plans

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Quantum Computing ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
Entry Barriers ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Technological Competition ◽  
Efficiency And Productivity

Significance These are: artificial intelligence, semiconductors, quantum computing, genetics, biotechnology, neuroscience and aerospace. Impacts It is not always useful to view technological competition between China and the West as a ‘race’. China will likely burn significant capital just to achieve parity with advanced countries, and may never achieve it. Low margins will encourage protectionism and import substitution, with an impact on efficiency and productivity.

Hydrogeochemical indications of regional flow in the Lower Greensand aquifer of the London Basin

2021 ◽  
pp. qjegh2021-028
Author(s):  
W. George Darling ◽  
Melinda A. Lewis
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Isotopes ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Confined Aquifer ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Flow ◽  
Fresh Perspective ◽  
Southern Side ◽  
Chalk Aquifer ◽  
The City

The Lower Greensand (LGS) forms the second most important aquifer in the London Basin but, being largely absent beneath the city itself, has received much less attention than the ubiquitous overlying Chalk aquifer. While the general directions of groundwater flow in the Chalk are well established, there has been much less certainty about flow in the LGS owing to regionally sparse borehole information. This study focuses on two hitherto uncertain aspects of the confined aquifer: the sources of recharge to the west-central London Basin around Slough, and the fate of LGS water where the aquifer thins out on the flank of the London Platform in the Gravesend–Medway–Sheppey area on the southern side of the basin. The application of hydrogeochemical techniques including environmental isotopes indicates that recharge to the Slough area is derived from the northern LGS outcrop, probably supplemented by downward leakage from the Chalk, while upward leakage from the LGS in North Kent is mixing with Chalk water to the extent that some Chalk boreholes on the Isle of Sheppey are abstracting high proportions of water with an LGS fingerprint. In doing so, this study demonstrates the value of re-examining previously published data from a fresh perspective.Thematic collection: This article is part of the Hydrogeology of Sandstone collection available at: https://www.lyellcollection.org/cc/hydrogeology-of-sandstone

Understanding the Islamic State—A Review Essay

2016 ◽  
Vol 40 (4) ◽  
pp. 127-165 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Byman
Keyword(s):  
Review Essay ◽  
Military Force ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
The West ◽  
High Quality ◽  
Terrorist Threat ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
Raison D’État ◽  
Foreign Fighters

This article reviews several recent books on the Islamic State in order to understand its goals, motivations, strategy, and vulnerabilities. It argues that the Islamic State's ideology is powerful but also highly instrumental, offering the group legitimacy and recruiting appeal. Raison d'etat often dominates its decisionmaking. The Islamic State's strength is largely a consequence of the policies and weaknesses of its state adversaries. In addition, the group has many weaknesses of its own, notably its brutality, reliance on foreign fighters, and investment in a state as well as its tendency to seek out new enemies. The threat the Islamic State poses is most severe at the local and regional levels. The danger of terrorism to the West is real but mitigated by the Islamic State's continued prioritization of the Muslim world and the heightened focus of Western security forces on the terrorist threat. A high-quality military force could easily defeat Islamic State fighters, but there is no desire to deploy large numbers of Western ground troops, and local forces have repeatedly shown many weaknesses. In the end, containing the Islamic State and making modest rollback efforts may be the best local outcomes.

scholarly journals The Campaign to Discredit Dissident Valentyn Moroz from the Side of the Soviet Regime

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (48) ◽  
pp. 103-110
Author(s):  
Bohdan Paska
Keyword(s):  
Soviet Regime ◽  
State Archive ◽  
False Information ◽  
Central State ◽  
The West ◽  
Security Service

The article analyzes the main measures of the Soviet regime to discredit the dissident Valentyn Moroz in the 1970s and early 1980s. This problem has not been studied in Ukrainian historiography yet. The basis of sources is previously classified documents of the Sectoral State Archive of the Security Service of Ukraine (SSA SSU), as well as materials of the Central State Archive of Public Associations of Ukraine (CSAPA), the Soviet press, memoirs of participants of the dissident movement. The chronological framework, stages and tasks of the discrediting campaign are singled out. Among its methods there is the distribution of false information about the dissident through the Ukrainian and foreign press, the initiation of conflicts with the participation of V. Moroz in the Mordovian colonies and in emigration, diplomatic pressure on the governments of the West. The author concludes that the KGB campaign has become one of the most important factors that led to a fall in the reputation of V. Moroz at the turn of the 1970s-1980s. Keywords: Valentyn Moroz, Ukrainian dissident movement, Soviet regime, discrediting campaign, disinformation, Ukrainian diaspora

The Rudolf Slánský Affair: New Evidence

Slavic Review ◽  
1999 ◽  
Vol 58 (1) ◽  
pp. 160-187 ◽  
Author(s):  
Igor Lukes
Keyword(s):  
Cold War ◽  
Early Years ◽  
Socialist Economy ◽  
International Capital ◽  
The West ◽  
Intelligence Services ◽  
Party Members ◽  
The Cold War ◽  
New Evidence ◽  
General Secretary

Rudolf Slánský's arrest in November 1951 by Statni bezpecnost (StB), the Czechoslovak secret police, his Kafkaesque trial a year later, and his execution caused a sensation during the early years of the Cold War. For a full week, the trial could be followed live on the radio in Prague. The transcript of the proceedings was published and widely distributed. Yet the affair remained a mystery. Slánský, until recently the general secretary of the Communist Party of Czechoslovakia (CPC), and thirteen of his colleagues, all of them lifelong party members, confessed to crimes of high treason against the Prague government, espionage on behalf of the west, and sabotage of the socialist economy. In tired, monotonous voices, they described their lives as being motivated by their hatred of the CPC and loyalty to such sponsors as the Gestapo, Zionism, western intelligence services, and international capital. In their final speeches, all the defendants demanded that the court impose upon them the death penalty. The judge disappointed only three—they received life sentences. Slánský and ten others were executed in December 1952.

The west wind vs the east wind: instructional leadership model in China

2017 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 186-206 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haiyan Qian ◽  
Allan Walker ◽  
Xiaojun Li
Keyword(s):  
Instructional Leadership ◽  
Leadership Practices ◽  
School Principals ◽  
Social Contexts ◽  
Three Dimensions ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
West Wind ◽  
East Wind ◽  
Context Specific

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to develop a preliminary model of instructional leadership in the Chinese educational context and explore the ways in which Chinese school principals locate their instructional-leadership practices in response to traditional expectations and the requirements of recent reforms. Design/methodology/approach In-depth interviews were conducted with 22 selected primary school principals in Shenzhen and Guangzhou. A qualitative analysis was conducted to categorize the major leadership practices enacted by these principals. Findings An initial model of instructional leadership in China with six major dimensions is constructed. The paper also illustrates and elaborates on three dimensions with the greatest context-specific meanings for Chinese principals. Originality/value The paper explores the ways in which Chinese principals enact their instructional leadership in a context in which “the west wind meets the east wind”; that is, when they are required to accommodate both imported reform initiatives and traditional expectations. The paper contributes to the sparse existing research on principals’ instructional leadership in non-western cultural and social contexts.

Grand Strategy Beyond the West

2021 ◽  
pp. 88-103
Author(s):  
K. M. Fierke
Keyword(s):  
Family Resemblance ◽  
Grand Strategy ◽  
Military Strategy ◽  
Military Force ◽  
Nonstate Actors ◽  
The West ◽  
Sun Tzu ◽  
Globalizing World ◽  
Grand Strategies

This chapter examines two of the most famous grand strategies with origins in Asia, identified with Sun Tzu and Gandhi. On the surface they would appear to be unfit for comparison. While Sun Tzu belongs to a tradition of military strategy, and is now part of the classical canon, Gandhi is identified with the nonviolent strategy of nonstate actors. The intention in examining the two together is to explore a family resemblance in their respective conceptions of grand strategy, even while recognizing that they are very distinct. After setting out some broad contrasts regarding cosmology, ontology, and epistemology, the chapter zooms in on the relevance of these points more specifically for understanding Sun Tzu or Gandhi. It concludes with some reflections on why the contrasts are important in a globalizing world. Both cases highlight the importance, if possible, of achieving objectives without recourse to military force, which, it argues, arises from a relational cosmology, where harmony and diversity coexist, and in which truth is not uniform but multiperspectival.

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