Crackdown will complicate economic reform in the Gulf

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Policy ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Political Freedom ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
External Threats ◽  
Employment Goals ◽  
State Group ◽  
The Impact

Subject Narrowing political freedom in the Gulf. Significance Political freedoms in the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have been severely curtailed by a series of security policy responses to the 2011 Arab uprisings. Cyber crime laws have become more restrictive, the definition for terrorism much more expansive, and the six states have passed a controversial agreement coordinating internal security. Although the impact of the new measures has varied from one country to another, it has been most pronounced in Kuwait, which traditionally has had the most vocal and participatory political landscape. Impacts Intra-GCC security coordination will intensify as external threats such as the Islamic State group and the civil conflict in Yemen grow. Silencing of dissent reduces credibility of GCC representative bodies already afflicted by opposition boycott and low turnout. Gulf officials will emphasise the importance of political stability in justifying the political crackdown to Western counterparts. Such co-ordination will facilitate cross-border arrests, narrowing the space for political opposition across the Gulf. Intensification of patronage politics (through increased public sector employment) will undermine long-term employment goals for nationals.

Libya will fuel North Africa terrorism risk

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
North Africa ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Terrorism Risk ◽  
Local Resources ◽  
Will Force ◽  
State Group ◽  
The Impact

Subject Effect of Libya on North Africa Significance The inability to produce a peace agreement in Libya and the prospect of a foreign intervention to counter the spread of Islamic State group (ISG) in the country raises questions on the impact this could have on Libya's North African neighbours. Impacts Military pressure on ISG in Libya will motivate the group to strike targets abroad to demonstrate its capabilities. ISG could use more sophisticated weapons against potential Western airstrikes and military operations. Insecurity in Libya will force its neighbours to maintain high levels of military spending at a time of lower government revenues. An influx of refugees into Tunisian and Algerian border areas could strain local resources.

Saudi campaign will shape, not end Yemen conflict

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Government ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Transition Process ◽  
Authoritarian Regime ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Institutions ◽  
Decisive Victory ◽  
State Group

Subject Lessons from the Yemen conflict. Significance In 2012-13 Yemen was often presented as a model of transition for post-uprising states in the region. However, the unseating of the transitional government by Huthi rebels in January has undermined the transition process and embroiled Yemen in a civil conflict. Yemen now stands firmly alongside Libya and Syria as a country where an initial uprising against a longstanding authoritarian regime has evolved into a civil conflict between multiple militant factions with rival regional backers. Impacts Conflict and factionalism risks permanent weakening of central government and state institutions. Al-Qaida and Islamic State group will exploit the security vacuum and sectarian rhetoric to expand control. The battle for Aden will be decisive; victory of anti-Huthi forces would allow Hadi to establish a government and see ground forces landed.

Global counterterrorism focus will weaken free speech

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Rights ◽  
Free Speech ◽  
Hate Speech ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Internet Freedom ◽  
Intermediary Liability ◽  
State Group ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Western Democracies

Subject The impact of the global focus on counterterrorism on free speech. Significance Calls for restrictions on online extremism and hate speech have risen amid the expansion of the so-called Islamic State group (ISG) and its use of online recruitment strategies. The terrorism threat has led to proposals to expand surveillance powers in several Western democracies, which are then used as justification to restrict civil rights in more restrictive countries. Impacts Proposals for private sector liability for online expression could erode global norms on free speech and internet freedom. It could also negatively affect businesses in countries where protections against intermediary liability have typically been strong. Venues online for anonymous speech are likely to become more limited amid the backlash against online extremism and terrorist attacks.

Fiscal squeeze will slow Iraq oil sector expansion

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Financial Difficulties ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Trade Sanctions ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
State Group ◽  
Oil Revenues ◽  
The Impact

Subject The impact of a fiscal squeeze on oil sector investment. Significance Despite continuing turmoil in parts of the country, Iraq's oil exports are rising, averaging close to 3 million barrels a day (b/d) in March, the highest since 1990 when financial and trade sanctions were imposed after the occupation of Kuwait. April exports are on course to top 3 million b/d. Yet financial difficulties caused by the decline in global oil prices and the high cost of the war against the Islamic State group (ISG) are affecting the government's ambitious investment plans for the sector, prompting the oil ministry to request international oil companies (IOCs) in southern Iraq to scale back their expansion plans. Impacts Government plans to increase southern production from almost 3 million b/d to 8 million b/d by 2020 will need to be revised. Introduction of new heavy grade oil expands Iraq's oil marketing potential. Decline in oil revenues will lead to reduced government spending and a higher fiscal deficit in 2015.

New Saudi leaders may seek to rein in national guard

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Guard ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
The Body ◽  
Regional Security ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Internal Security ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Crown Prince ◽  
State Group

Subject National guard role in Saudi politics and security. Significance The Saudi Arabian National Guard (SANG) faces a number of questions about its future following the accession of King Salman in January. SANG is headed by Prince Mit'eb bin Abdallah, son of the deceased king and a previous contender for the throne. However, on Salman's accession he was sidelined in favour of new deputy crown prince and Defence Minister Mohammed bin Salman under the new succession and leadership arrangements. A vital part of Saudi Arabia's internal security capabilities, SANG faces new uncertainty at a time when Saudi Arabia is at war with the Huthi movement in Yemen, al-Qaida remains potent, and the kingdom faces external and internal threats from Islamic State group (ISG) fighters. Impacts Financial cuts could weaken SANG's patronage power over key tribes, thereby affecting security and political stability. Reduced arms purchases could damage Saudi-US ties as SANG is a major conduit of US military hardware and cooperation. Efforts by Mohammed bin Salman to exert control over SANG could damage the body and stoke tensions within the Saudi leadership. A strong and effective SANG will improve border security, with wider benefits to regime, national and regional security

Civil conflict looms in Yemen as Huthis push south

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Civil Aviation ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Local Actors ◽  
Sectarian Conflict ◽  
Conflict Risk ◽  
State Group ◽  
Military Campaign ◽  
The Military

Subject Yemen conflict risk. Significance The Huthi movement is preparing a military campaign to oust President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi from his seat in Aden. As part of this campaign it took control of Ta'izz on March 22. As the Huthis advance deeper into Sunni majority areas, the risk of sectarian conflict is rising. On March 20, the Islamic State group (ISG) claimed the bombings of Zaydi Shia mosques in Sana'a and Sa'ada which killed 143 people. If the claim is authentic, this would be the first known attack by the group on Yemeni soil. Impacts The Huthis' tactical alliance with Saleh will break down eventually, leading to conflict. The military is splitting, and could turn against Huthi control. Huthis may seek to close down Aden airport while increase in foreign arms supplies to local actors will raise risks for civil aviation. Hadi could defeat the Huthi campaign if he organises anti-Huthi forces effectively. A power struggle will weaken government efforts to fight al-Qaida, while sectarian conflict would benefit the ISG.

France's security policy will focus on symbolism

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Policy ◽  
Young Men ◽  
International Terrorism ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
A Priority ◽  
State Group

Significance France is confronted with a form of international terrorism -- as many recent perpetrators have claimed allegiance to the Islamic State group (ISG) -- but only the November 2015 attacks were organised from abroad (Belgium) and even those were led by individuals with either French connections or French nationality. Impacts Vigilance may prevent major attacks, but lesser incidents are likely as a sense of alienation among a minority of Muslim young men persists. Attempts by left-wing politicians to maintain a sense of proportion in the terrorism debate will have little effect. EU cooperation in security and anti-terrorism is likely to be strengthened as this issue increasingly becomes a priority for electorates.

Climate change could intensify Sahel conflicts

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Droughts And Floods ◽  
Political Conditions ◽  
Small Scale Irrigation

Significance It will increase rainfall variability and extreme events such as droughts and floods, as well as raising temperatures. These effects may trigger cascading risks to economic, social and political stability. Impacts The EU could play a key role in moderating climate effects as it shapes migration and security policy in the Sahel. The likelihood and severity of climate impacts will depend on socio-economic and political conditions in the region. Small-scale irrigation, climate-adapted seeds and traditional soil conservation techniques can help increase resilience to climate change.

Strategy war games: how business can outperform the competition

2018 ◽  
Vol 39 (6) ◽  
pp. 3-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason West ◽  
Maiko Chu ◽  
Lincoln Crooks ◽  
Matthew Bradley-Ho
Keyword(s):  
Financial Services ◽  
Business Strategy ◽  
Joint Venture ◽  
Corporate Strategy ◽  
Insurance Company ◽  
Content Type ◽  
External Threats ◽  
Internal Capabilities ◽  
Banking Institution ◽  
The Impact

PurposeBusiness wargames represent an alternative approach to challenge organisations to uncover internal capabilities through competitive actions designed to counteract external threats and address strategic mismatches. Internal capabilities uncovered as a result of actions taken during a competitive wargame aims to replicate market conditions found in competitive industries. These outcomes are difficult to achieve using many popular strategy design methods. The purpose of this study is to examine the use of war game-style activities in formulating corporate strategy that incorporate the natural behaviors of the leadership team in creating strategic plans.Design/methodology/approachUsing a case study from the banc assurance industry, the authors review a wargame process composed of two competing teams; the banc assurance organisation and an unincorporated joint venture between a banking institution and an insurance company. The goal of each entity was to develop strategy to improve both customer satisfaction and market share at the expense of each other given a finite set of resources. Success was judged using a simple set of metrics defined by both a consumer team and an independent umpire.FindingsConsumers of financial services are price sensitive and highly brand loyal. Unwillingness to switch brands to a prevailing competitor or other emerging (Fintech) institution persists to a threshold of a price and/or value differential of 15 to 20 per cent. The results highlight potential deficiencies in the proposed banc assurance strategy through the observation of customer behaviours and inefficient resource use.Originality/valueThe wargame approach conducted in a realistic landscape revealed internal capabilities not otherwise evident. The impact of authentic human behaviours in setting business strategy was captured which is very difficult to replicate using more formal scenario analysis and planning.

The impact of law, religion, and culture on the ease of starting a business

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 242-257 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dana L. Haggard ◽  
K. Stephen Haggard
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Cultural Dimension ◽  
Legal Origin ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dynamic Factors ◽  
New Business ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Starting A Business

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of culture, legal origin and religion on four measures of the ease of starting a new business; the number of procedures required, the number days required, the ease of getting credit and the cost to start a business. Design/methodology/approach The authors use linear regression to test the hypotheses using publicly available data on legal origin and religion from La Porta et al. (1999), cultural dimension information from Hofstede (2009) and measures of the ease of starting a business from the World Bank’s (2017) Doing Business Initiative. The final sample consists of 71 countries for which information was available on all the variables of interest. Findings Legal origin affects the number of procedures and the length of time needed to start a business, as well as the ease of getting credit. Culture (power distance) and religion are important for explaining gender differences in the ease of starting a business. The cost of starting a business is unrelated to culture, legal origin or religion. Originality/value Economic development is an important determinant of a country’s political stability and standard of living. Although politicians play a significant role in how a friendly a country is toward business, the study demonstrates that other longer-term and less dynamic factors have a material influence on economic development.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document