Russian Arctic military power will grow

Significance The past year has seen the Russian military expand its exercises and other activities in the region. As well as creating a new joint command for the Arctic, the Kremlin is increasing the capacity of its military and paramilitary forces to operate there, including on search-and-rescue missions. This ramp-up reflects the broader modernisation of the entire armed forces, which Putin reiterated yesterday remained a key priority. Impacts Other countries engage in military activities in the region, but only Russia has taken major steps to militarise its Arctic frontier. Russian leaders profess peaceful motives but warn that Moscow will defend its Arctic interests with force if necessary. Russia will commission a fleet of highly versatile vessels that can serve as tugs, icebreakers or patrol ships.

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 1642
Author(s):  
Marina L. BELONOZHKO ◽  
Oleg M. BARBAKOV ◽  
Anton L. ABRAMOVSKY

For a long time, the Arctic was considered a territory not adapted for human life (“dead earth”), impassable either by water or by land due to the climate. Currently, not only scientists, but also ordinary travelers and tourists are going to the North Pole. Today, tourism in the Arctic is one of the rapidly developing areas in the past few years. Therefore, the authors studied the development of tourism in the Arctic and its impact on the environment. It has been established that the development of ecological, cultural, scientific, extreme tourism, sport hunting, fishing and cruises is relevant for the Arctic regions. It was determined that the main problem in the development of tourism in the Russian Arctic is the transport and logistics underdevelopment of the region. But, these territories are so rich in natural, cultural, historical resources that there is the possibility of developing almost all types of tourism.


Subject Russia's Arctic strategy. Significance Russia has identified the Arctic as a strategic priority and future resource base, and is working systematically to expand its territorial claim and consolidate control of the Northern Sea Route (NSR). While it seeks cooperation with like-minded Arctic states, it is upgrading its military capacity to defend its interests in what it sees as an increasingly competitive environment as outside players try to make inroads. Impacts NATO states will respond to Moscow's growing military presence by upgrading their Arctic capacity. Russian military expansion will be constrained by procurement delays affecting the defence sector generally. A relaxation in US sanctions would facilitate technology transfers for developing Arctic hydrocarbons deposits.


Subject Russia's diversified military capacity in Syria. Significance Russian armed forces played an active role in the Syrian government's recapture of Palmyra in March, despite the partial withdrawal of Russian aircraft from Syria. As well as air strikes, months of Russian military training and arms deliveries enhanced the Syrian army's combat capacity, contributing to a rapid collapse of Islamic State group (ISG) resistance. The operation showed how Russia has widened the instruments available: it can scale conventional air strikes up or down, provide fire support from helicopters or artillery, and use these elements to compensate for deficiencies in the Syrian military, while supplying weaponry, training and coordination to local forces. Impacts Russian military support can ensure the Syrian regime's survival, but that will require a long-term presence. The recapture of Aleppo would constitute a near fatal blow to the Syrian rebel movement. The Russian military will learn lessons about weaponry and coordination from the Syrian operation. Elements of these lessons including control of proxy forces may be applied in future foreign interventions. The use of mercenaries, trialled in Syria, offers Moscow a useful and deniable instrument abroad.


Subject Russian Arctic update. Significance Russia has identified two key national interests in the Arctic, hydrocarbons development and control over sea routes, and has worked consistently to advance them. Often seen as aggressive by NATO states, Russian efforts to rebuild military capabilities after decades of underfunding are in large part designed to consolidate Moscow's claim to exercise jurisdiction over its Arctic waterway and increase exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), oil and coal along it. Impacts Russia's new floating nuclear power plant is the first in a series designed to assist remote communities and extractive projects. Warships are being used to stop and inspect small boats in a sign of Moscow's assertion of its claim to control its waters. Russia is part of the MOSAiC project to study the central Arctic and gain insights on climate change.


Significance On March 12, Cairo announced a 2-billion-dollar deal to buy advanced fighter jets from Russia. This comes against the background of new data showing that Egypt has climbed to third place in the world in a ranking of arms imports over the past five years. Impacts Diversification of Egypt’s procurement away from the United States will reduce Washington’s political leverage. The Egyptian armed forces’ prestige will be enhanced by the arms build-up. Gulf funders may exert pressure on Egypt to deploy its enhanced military muscle in support of conflicts in which they are engaged.


Subject President Abdelaziz Bouteflika's grip on power in Algeria. Significance In the past three months, President Abdelaziz Bouteflika has dismissed ten generals in the armed forces and police. The scale of the turnover is unusual, as is the way in which the changes have been effected. The media have advanced various explanations: a cocaine-smuggling scandal, corruption charges or a routine rotation of officers. Questions have also arisen about what impact the dismissal of powerful security figures might have on the presidency itself, as Bouteflika’s supporters prepare the ground for him to secure a fifth term in an election scheduled for April 2019. Impacts A fifth term for Bouteflika will not lay to rest rivalries among powerful interest groups over the eventual succession. Activists and civil society members will organise more protests to express discontent with the presidency. If the cocaine smuggling claim is true, it may point to mafia-style networks deep within the security establishment.


Significance The wealthier Gulf states have become increasingly active in nearby countries over the past decade. They have intervened significantly across the Middle East and Horn of Africa, using a mixture of economic, diplomatic and military power, sometimes seeking to fill gaps left by Washington’s partial withdrawal from the region. Impacts Companies risk getting caught out if their operations span the Gulf and include a country that falls out of favour in regional politics. Bilateral relations bolstered by government interventions may encourage new investments. Regional interventions by Gulf states risk harming relationships with major global powers.


Significance Spending on the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) rose in the 2021 budget despite fears that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government would scale back military expenditure to fund pandemic-related social spending. Neither recent scandals nor the forthcoming general election are likely to imperil the CAF’s positive budgetary outlook. Impacts Canada is spending CAD163mn on a five-year project that will modernise the NORAD air defence system. The Arctic continues to be a central defence concern and Ottawa is upgrading facilities there. Confidence in a sustained level of military spending should benefit Canadian defence companies as they seek foreign contracts.


2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 321-336 ◽  
Author(s):  
Inna A. Ignatyeva

Abstract The current plans of the Russian Federation to intensify significantly economic and other activities in Russian Arctic include the widespread exploitation of Arctic natural resources. At the same time, however, high vulnerability of the Arctic environment has been recognized in the country’s legislation. The plans for development in such a vulnerable region as the Arctic give rise to concern as to how it can be realized sustainably. For this reason, it is useful to examine one legal tool of environmental protection, an environmental assessment (EA) procedure, since this institution at least provides the possibility to enable the exploitation of Arctic’s natural resources in a way that protects the environment. Yet, as the article will point out, the conditions for effective EA have been in recent years severely limited, which can be seen in the current legislation. It is hence justifiable to be concerned of the future of Arctic vulnerable environment and, as the article proposes, restore some of the elements of the past EA legislation, which enable a stronger EA mechanism.


Subject Central African Republic's peace process. Significance President Faustin Archange Touadera’s government has been bolstered by Russian military support, with UN peacekeepers and the EU helping the state to re-establish a presence in provincial areas and African mediators drawing some armed groups into dialogue. Nevertheless, the Central African Republic (CAR) remains trapped in a profound crisis that will be difficult to escape. Impacts The retirement of 829 armed forces personnel could make room for former rebel fighters to be integrated into the military. Despite progress in rebuilding the judicial system, this is unlikely quickly to deter human rights violators on all sides. Sectarian factions in Bangui may stir new inter-communal violence and clashes with UN peacekeeping troops.


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