Prospects for Iran to end-2016

Subject Prospects for Iran to end-2016. Significance Promoting economic growth and foreign investment will be the key focus of President Hassan Rouhani's administration in the second half of 2016.

Significance The closing of internal and external borders in response to COVID-19 has heightened a longstanding skills deficit in key industries, with implications for wage levels, prices and broader economic growth. However, a general increase in immigrant numbers may not provide the skills that are needed. Impacts Labour shortfalls may delay government infrastructure projects that were designed to lead the post-pandemic economic recovery. Foreign investment may be affected by skills shortages in key areas such as mining and metallurgy. Debate on immigration levels could influence voting in the general election that is now likely to be held in April.


2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 258-276
Author(s):  
Hanan AbdelKhalik Abouelfarag ◽  
Mohamed Sayed Abed

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to trace the effects of both foreign direct investment (FDI) and external debt on economic growth and employment in Egypt over the 1985–2014 period. Design/methodology/approach The empirical analysis includes three stages: an aggregate time series analysis, a panel model that includes six economic sectors and a set of single-sector models. The “autoregressive distributed lag” approach is utilized either in the time series or in the panel models. Findings The empirical results of this research reveal that foreign investment exerts a weak positive effect on economic growth and employment in Egypt. External debt exerts an insignificant effect on economic growth and employment in the aggregate model. The sectoral analysis reveals that the effect varies greatly between sectors; the effect of FDI on output is positive in the financial, tourism and other service sectors, while it is insignificant in the agricultural, construction and manufacturing sectors. Practical implications It is important not to depend on external debt as an easy way to obtain capital. Greater efforts should be exerted to increase the absorptive capacity of the Egyptian economy so as to benefit from the positive spillover effect of foreign investment as much as possible. Originality/value With respect to Egypt, very limited studies have focussed on the role of external debt on growth and that of FDI and external debt on the employment level. There is no general agreement concerning the effect of FDI on economic growth. Therefore, this research explores the effect of FDI and external debt on the Egyptian economy utilizing both aggregate and sectoral data.


Author(s):  
Faris Alshubiri ◽  
Mohamed Elheddad

Purpose This study aims to examine the relationship between foreign finance, economic growth and CO2 to investigate if the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) exists as an empirical evidence in 32 selected Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Design/methodology/approach This study used quantitative analysis to test two main hypotheses: H1 is the U-shape relationship between foreign finance and environment, and H2 is the N-shaped association between economic growth and environment. In doing so, this study used panel data techniques. The panel set contained 32 countries over the period from 1990 to 2015, with 27 observations for each country. This study applied a panel OLS estimator via fixed-effects control to address heterogeneity and mitigate endogeneity. Generalized method of moments (GMM) with fixed effects-instrumental variables (FE-IV) and diagnostic tests were also used. Findings The results showed that foreign finance and environmental quality have an inverted U-shaped association. The three proxies’ foreign investment, foreign assets and remittance in the first stages contribute significantly to CO2 emissions, but after the threshold point is reached, these proxies become “environmentally friendly” by their contribution to reducing CO2 emissions. Also, a non-linear relationship denotes that foreign investment in OECD countries enhances the importance, as a proxy of foreign finance has greater environmental quality than foreign assets. Additionally, empirical results show that remittances received is linked to the highest polluted levels until a threshold point is reached, at which point it then helps reduce CO2 emissions. The GMM and FE-IV results provide robust evidence on inverse U-shaped relationship, while the N-shaped relationship explains that economic growth produces more CO2 emissions at the first phase of growth, but the quadratic term confirms this effect is negative after a specific level of GDP is reached. Then, this economic growth makes the environment deteriorate. These results are robust even after controlling for the omitted variable issue. The IV-FE results indicate an N-shaped relationship in the OECD countries. Practical implications Most studies have used different economic indicators as proxies to show the effects of these indicators on the environment, but they are flawed and outdated regarding the large social challenges facing contemporary, socio-financial economic systems. To overcome these disadvantages, the social, institutional and environmental aspects of economic development should also be considered. Hence, this study aims to explain this issue as a relationship with several proxies in regard to environmental, foreign finance and economic aspects. Originality/value This paper uses updated data sets for analyzing the relationship between foreign finance and economic growth as a new proxy for pollution. Also, this study simulates the financial and environmental future to show their effect on investments in different OECD countries. While this study enhances the literature by establishing an innovative control during analysis, this will increase to add value. This study is among the few studies that empirically investigate the non-linear relationship between finance and environmental degradation.


Subject The economic outlook for Fiji. Significance Fiji has returned to political stability and a degree of international legitimacy in recent years, albeit in a context of poor to moderate economic growth. GDP growth of 4.0 % is forecast for 2015, but the outlook for Fiji's main industries (tourism, gold and services) remains stagnant as aggregate regional demand for resources slumps and Fiji's comparative advantage as a regional services hub erodes. Impacts The government will actively promote FDI to boost Fiji's lacklustre economic growth prospects. The government will promote agriculture and fisheries to provide opportunities for disadvantaged rural and ethnic populations. Foreign investment in tourism will probably increase slowly as demand from Asian countries grows. Fiji's dominance in the South Pacific economy will likely diminish as advances in ICT allow it to be bypassed. Ways must be found to prevent loss of trained and educated personnel if Fiji is to maintain its central role.


Significance The second quarter will almost certainly be worse. COVID-19 containment measures have hit consumption and investment while a US slowdown in the first half of the year has weighed on exports, tourism and remittances. Hotels and restaurants, transport and construction have suffered the greatest contractions. Impacts Gang violence and related corruption will continue to weigh on foreign investment. Tensions between Bukele and the Legislative Assembly pre-date the health crisis and will endure even if the crisis recedes. Frequent exposure to natural disasters and weak response capacity will continue to hinder economic growth.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Safi Ullah ◽  
Muhammad Tahir

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to examine the effect of country- and firm-specific factors on foreign investment in Pakistan.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses time-series data for country-level determinants and uses panel data for 100 listed non-financial companies selected based on market capitalisation from 2005 to 2015.FindingsFindings suggest that the stock market returns and liquidity of the country significantly positively influence the foreign portfolio investment (FPI) in Pakistan. Whereas, economic growth surprisingly is negatively related to foreign portfolio investment. In addition, findings reveal that firm size, financial leverage, dividend yield and global depositary receipts (GDR) have a positive impact on the total foreign investment at firm level. Further, foreign institutional investors prefer to invest in those firms that are large, pay high dividends and issue GDR. Furthermore, findings suggest that foreign direct investors tend to invest in firms that are financially leveraged and have low capital gain yield.Practical implicationsAt the country level, this study recommends that stock market performance, economic growth and foreign reserves of the country should be maintained and improved to attract FPI. At the firm level, this study recommends issuance of global depositary receipts and high dividend payouts for those firms that are interested in institutional investment in Pakistan.Originality/valueTo the best of authors' knowledge, this study is the first that examines the effect of firm-level factors along with country-level factors on foreign investment in Pakistan.


Subject Foreign investment regulations in North Africa. Significance Governments across North Africa are refining their business regulations in an effort to attract more investment from their domestic private sectors and from international companies, in the hope that this will lead to higher rates of economic growth. Impacts The Egyptian government is set to revive tax incentives twelve years after they were dropped. Newly formed governments in Algeria and Morocco are also considering refinements to their investment regulations. Companies will remain wary, as they have well-founded reservations about basic standards of governance and accountability.


Significance Today marks the first anniversary of US President Barack Obama and Cuban President Raul Castro's announcement of normalisation of US-Cuban relations. One year on, the process has advanced significantly, with Obama suggesting that he may travel to Havana in 2016. However, despite Cuba's rapidly changing international relations and economic growth, domestic reform has failed to accelerate. Impacts Foreign investment in Cuba will increase significantly in 2016. Negotiations with the EU are likely to bring about a Cuba-EU cooperation agreement. Domestic reform is unlikely to advance much before April as Cuban leaders avoid divisive issues prior to the 2016 party congress. The Cuban migration surge will probably worsen over the coming months.


Subject The outlook for mining reform. Significance In June, the government of Panama announced the completion of the environmental impact assessment for the Cerro Quema gold mining project. This means that it may go ahead by the end of the year, despite uncertainty surrounding legislation in the mining sector and ongoing discussions regarding a number of potential framework reforms. Impacts New legislation could lead to renewed protests, particularly in areas with major deposits. Greater certainty in the mining sector could encourage renewed foreign investment. Mining could help diversify Panama's economy and stimulate economic growth over the medium term.


Significance Preliminary results suggest that President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has won re-election with 91% of the vote. Western media and diplomats estimate turnout hovered around 20%, though Egyptian site Youm7 reported yesterday that 23 million of 59 million eligible voters cast their ballot, bringing turnout to 39%. After the formality of his re-election for a second term is completed, Sisi is looking to his cabinet to set the conditions for a surge in economic growth over the next four years. Impacts Further cuts to subsidies are in the pipeline; inflation and interest rates remain high, although they have passed their peaks. Foreign exchange reserves are at record levels, but increased borrowing made a major contribution, and heavy debt repayments are now due. The government seeks more foreign investment in projects and equities to replace external borrowing as the main source of capital inflows.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document