Pandemic will increase El Salvador financing needs

Significance The second quarter will almost certainly be worse. COVID-19 containment measures have hit consumption and investment while a US slowdown in the first half of the year has weighed on exports, tourism and remittances. Hotels and restaurants, transport and construction have suffered the greatest contractions. Impacts Gang violence and related corruption will continue to weigh on foreign investment. Tensions between Bukele and the Legislative Assembly pre-date the health crisis and will endure even if the crisis recedes. Frequent exposure to natural disasters and weak response capacity will continue to hinder economic growth.

Significance The closing of internal and external borders in response to COVID-19 has heightened a longstanding skills deficit in key industries, with implications for wage levels, prices and broader economic growth. However, a general increase in immigrant numbers may not provide the skills that are needed. Impacts Labour shortfalls may delay government infrastructure projects that were designed to lead the post-pandemic economic recovery. Foreign investment may be affected by skills shortages in key areas such as mining and metallurgy. Debate on immigration levels could influence voting in the general election that is now likely to be held in April.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Asier Minondo

Purpose This paper aims to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on the trade of goods and services in Spain. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses monthly trade data at the product, region and firm level. Findings The COVID-19 crisis has led to the sharpest collapse in the Spanish trade of goods and services in recent decades. The containment measures adopted to arrest the spread of the virus have caused an especially intense fall of trade in services. The large share of transport equipment, capital goods, products that are consumed outdoors (i.e., outdoor goods) and tourism in Spanish exports has made the COVID-19 trade crisis more intense in Spain than in the rest of the European Union. Practical implications The nature of the collapse suggests that trade in goods can recover swiftly when the health crisis ends. However, COVID-19 may have a long-term negative impact on the trade of services that rely on the movement of people. Originality/value It contributes to understand how COVID-19 has affected the trade in goods and services in Spain.


2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 258-276
Author(s):  
Hanan AbdelKhalik Abouelfarag ◽  
Mohamed Sayed Abed

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to trace the effects of both foreign direct investment (FDI) and external debt on economic growth and employment in Egypt over the 1985–2014 period. Design/methodology/approach The empirical analysis includes three stages: an aggregate time series analysis, a panel model that includes six economic sectors and a set of single-sector models. The “autoregressive distributed lag” approach is utilized either in the time series or in the panel models. Findings The empirical results of this research reveal that foreign investment exerts a weak positive effect on economic growth and employment in Egypt. External debt exerts an insignificant effect on economic growth and employment in the aggregate model. The sectoral analysis reveals that the effect varies greatly between sectors; the effect of FDI on output is positive in the financial, tourism and other service sectors, while it is insignificant in the agricultural, construction and manufacturing sectors. Practical implications It is important not to depend on external debt as an easy way to obtain capital. Greater efforts should be exerted to increase the absorptive capacity of the Egyptian economy so as to benefit from the positive spillover effect of foreign investment as much as possible. Originality/value With respect to Egypt, very limited studies have focussed on the role of external debt on growth and that of FDI and external debt on the employment level. There is no general agreement concerning the effect of FDI on economic growth. Therefore, this research explores the effect of FDI and external debt on the Egyptian economy utilizing both aggregate and sectoral data.


Author(s):  
Faris Alshubiri ◽  
Mohamed Elheddad

Purpose This study aims to examine the relationship between foreign finance, economic growth and CO2 to investigate if the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) exists as an empirical evidence in 32 selected Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Design/methodology/approach This study used quantitative analysis to test two main hypotheses: H1 is the U-shape relationship between foreign finance and environment, and H2 is the N-shaped association between economic growth and environment. In doing so, this study used panel data techniques. The panel set contained 32 countries over the period from 1990 to 2015, with 27 observations for each country. This study applied a panel OLS estimator via fixed-effects control to address heterogeneity and mitigate endogeneity. Generalized method of moments (GMM) with fixed effects-instrumental variables (FE-IV) and diagnostic tests were also used. Findings The results showed that foreign finance and environmental quality have an inverted U-shaped association. The three proxies’ foreign investment, foreign assets and remittance in the first stages contribute significantly to CO2 emissions, but after the threshold point is reached, these proxies become “environmentally friendly” by their contribution to reducing CO2 emissions. Also, a non-linear relationship denotes that foreign investment in OECD countries enhances the importance, as a proxy of foreign finance has greater environmental quality than foreign assets. Additionally, empirical results show that remittances received is linked to the highest polluted levels until a threshold point is reached, at which point it then helps reduce CO2 emissions. The GMM and FE-IV results provide robust evidence on inverse U-shaped relationship, while the N-shaped relationship explains that economic growth produces more CO2 emissions at the first phase of growth, but the quadratic term confirms this effect is negative after a specific level of GDP is reached. Then, this economic growth makes the environment deteriorate. These results are robust even after controlling for the omitted variable issue. The IV-FE results indicate an N-shaped relationship in the OECD countries. Practical implications Most studies have used different economic indicators as proxies to show the effects of these indicators on the environment, but they are flawed and outdated regarding the large social challenges facing contemporary, socio-financial economic systems. To overcome these disadvantages, the social, institutional and environmental aspects of economic development should also be considered. Hence, this study aims to explain this issue as a relationship with several proxies in regard to environmental, foreign finance and economic aspects. Originality/value This paper uses updated data sets for analyzing the relationship between foreign finance and economic growth as a new proxy for pollution. Also, this study simulates the financial and environmental future to show their effect on investments in different OECD countries. While this study enhances the literature by establishing an innovative control during analysis, this will increase to add value. This study is among the few studies that empirically investigate the non-linear relationship between finance and environmental degradation.


Subject The economic outlook for Fiji. Significance Fiji has returned to political stability and a degree of international legitimacy in recent years, albeit in a context of poor to moderate economic growth. GDP growth of 4.0 % is forecast for 2015, but the outlook for Fiji's main industries (tourism, gold and services) remains stagnant as aggregate regional demand for resources slumps and Fiji's comparative advantage as a regional services hub erodes. Impacts The government will actively promote FDI to boost Fiji's lacklustre economic growth prospects. The government will promote agriculture and fisheries to provide opportunities for disadvantaged rural and ethnic populations. Foreign investment in tourism will probably increase slowly as demand from Asian countries grows. Fiji's dominance in the South Pacific economy will likely diminish as advances in ICT allow it to be bypassed. Ways must be found to prevent loss of trained and educated personnel if Fiji is to maintain its central role.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Safi Ullah ◽  
Muhammad Tahir

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to examine the effect of country- and firm-specific factors on foreign investment in Pakistan.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses time-series data for country-level determinants and uses panel data for 100 listed non-financial companies selected based on market capitalisation from 2005 to 2015.FindingsFindings suggest that the stock market returns and liquidity of the country significantly positively influence the foreign portfolio investment (FPI) in Pakistan. Whereas, economic growth surprisingly is negatively related to foreign portfolio investment. In addition, findings reveal that firm size, financial leverage, dividend yield and global depositary receipts (GDR) have a positive impact on the total foreign investment at firm level. Further, foreign institutional investors prefer to invest in those firms that are large, pay high dividends and issue GDR. Furthermore, findings suggest that foreign direct investors tend to invest in firms that are financially leveraged and have low capital gain yield.Practical implicationsAt the country level, this study recommends that stock market performance, economic growth and foreign reserves of the country should be maintained and improved to attract FPI. At the firm level, this study recommends issuance of global depositary receipts and high dividend payouts for those firms that are interested in institutional investment in Pakistan.Originality/valueTo the best of authors' knowledge, this study is the first that examines the effect of firm-level factors along with country-level factors on foreign investment in Pakistan.


2022 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Idris Abdullahi Abdulqadir ◽  
Bello Malam Sa'idu ◽  
Ibrahim Muhammad Adam ◽  
Fatima Binta Haruna ◽  
Mustapha Adamu Zubairu ◽  
...  

PurposeThis article investigates the dynamic implication of healthcare expenditure on economic growth in the selected ten Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 2000–2018.Design/methodology/approachThe study methodology included dynamic heterogenous panel, using mean group and pooled mean group estimators. The investigation of the healthcare expenditure and economic growth nexus was achieved while controlling the effects of investment, savings, labor force and life expectancy via interaction terms.FindingsThe results from linear healthcare expenditure have a significant positive impact on economic growth, while the nonlinear estimates through the interaction terms between healthcare expenditure and investment have a negative statistically significant impact on growth. The marginal effect of healthcare expenditure evaluated at the minimum and maximum level of investment is positive, suggesting the impact of health expenditure on growth does not vary with the level of investments. This result responds to the primary objective of the article.Research limitations/implicationsIn policy terms, the impact of investment on healthcare is essential to addressing future health crises. The impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) can never be separated from the shortages or low prioritization of health against other sectors of the economy. The article also provides an insight to policymakers on the demand for policy reform that will boost and make the health sector attractive to both domestic and foreign direct investment.Originality/valueGiven the vulnerability of SSA to the health crisis, there are limited studies to examine this phenomenon and first to address the needed investment priorities to the health sector infrastructure in SSA.


Significance The formation of a unity government under interim Prime Minister Ariel Henry may stave off a downward political spiral temporarily. However, other challenges -- including mounting gang violence, the COVID-19 pandemic and severe food shortages brought on by drought and natural disasters -- will be difficult to address, even with international assistance. Impacts Foreign actors will push for early polls, seeing them as the best path out of the crisis, despite domestic calls for a longer transition. Foreign actors will find it easier to offer assistance to Haiti under a government that has been legitimated through elections. Washington’s stake in stabilising Haiti is tied to preventing an influx of asylum seekers to the United States. Washington will push for answers in the case of Moise’s murder, partly because Haiti’s government believes US citizens were involved.


Subject Prospects for Iran to end-2016. Significance Promoting economic growth and foreign investment will be the key focus of President Hassan Rouhani's administration in the second half of 2016.


Subject Foreign investment regulations in North Africa. Significance Governments across North Africa are refining their business regulations in an effort to attract more investment from their domestic private sectors and from international companies, in the hope that this will lead to higher rates of economic growth. Impacts The Egyptian government is set to revive tax incentives twelve years after they were dropped. Newly formed governments in Algeria and Morocco are also considering refinements to their investment regulations. Companies will remain wary, as they have well-founded reservations about basic standards of governance and accountability.


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