Algerian army will try to guard fiefdom in transition

Significance The military leadership has seized control of the political process, but has shown little interest in assuming formal power, often demonstrating sympathies with protesters while preserving the constitutional order. Impacts The prime minister and interim president may be pushed to quit as a concession. Elections planned for July 4 may be postponed if unrest grows. The economy may suffer as tourism will decline and foreign investors will hesitate to become involved in an uncertain energy sector.

Subject Outlook for the post-transition political system. Significance The August 7 constitutional referendum will be conducted under tightened controls on political organisation, making a 'yes' vote more likely. Although the Democratic Party criticises the draft for its attempt to return Thailand to a semi-authoritarian state, efforts by deposed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's 'red-shirt' supporters to organise protests offer the only real opposition to the junta's plan. This struggle foreshadows the political system that is likely to emerge after the next parliamentary elections. Impacts Regulatory risk to investors post-transition would be limited: the military, the Democrats and the PTP are pro-business. China will not alter the status quo in its Thai relations, but will need to invest in building ties with the next monarch. Washington will tolerate most eventualities, except a violent crackdown against the military's opponents.


Subject Government vulnerability to powerful commercial interests. Significance Despite a change of prime minister in April, governance in Ukraine remains the preserve of a circle around President Petro Poroshenko. These insiders show little sense of urgency on economic reforms or other matters of public concern including the conflict in eastern Ukraine, and maintain strong links with business 'oligarchs' who own much of the country's wealth and economic assets. Oligarchic funds and media shape the political process, and the political establishment owes them too much to declare war on them. Impacts Moscow will seek ways of infiltrating mainstream politics via oligarchic contacts. When the IMF meets in July, will likely conclude that Ukraine has done enough to merit a tranche payment. Prosecutors have a long way to go to show that corruption investigations do not target only government opponents.


Significance The military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) has already postponed elections three times, from 2015 to early 2016 and, most recently, to late 2016, with a new administration to be inaugurated in early 2017. A potential further delay would signal the junta's weakness in the face of mounting policy challenges. Impacts Suthep's reappearance could jeopardise the political stability the junta has maintained since May 2014. The NCPO will continue to suppress the political machine of deposed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Government forecast of 3% growth this year may prove optimistic. Post-elections, China and the West are likely to be given at least equal diplomatic attention.


1972 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 287-291
Author(s):  
James Lightbody

Modestly impressive by its lack of mention both in a recent examination of the political leadership of the prime minister and the more traditional texts of the Canadian political process, is serious notice of environmental limitations on the prime ministerial prerogative in dissolving the Legislative Assembly and announcing a general election.


Significance The situation has highlighted several issues of concern around the influence of the Mexican military, the government’s reliance on it and the challenges Mexico and its security agencies face in trying to meet US demands while addressing domestic threats. Impacts Mexican militarisation was facilitated by Trump administration apathy on human rights; this will change under President Joe Biden. Increased US-bound migration, encouraged by Biden’s more humane rhetoric, will heighten the need for bilateral security cooperation. Future Mexican administrations will struggle to reverse the political influence the military has obtained.


Significance The deployment of the UK troops comes at a time when jihadists attacks are intensifying across the Sahel amid an escalating internecine conflict between the al-Qaida-affiliated Group for Supporting Islam and Muslims (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS). Impacts Mali’s coup is likely to distract the military leadership away from its core mandate to improve national security. The G5 Sahel Joint Force may continue to struggle to curb jihadist cross-border operations. The deployment of UK troops underscores the still strong commitment of Western governments to improving the security situation in the Sahel.


Author(s):  
Acar Kutay

The continued influence of the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) on politics characterized the political history of the Turkish Republic, until such influence was first bridled and then ultimately broken by the Justice and Development Party governments during the 2000s. When the new regime was established in 1923, the military identified itself with its founding ideology, namely Kemalism, which was built on the ideas of modernism, secularism, and nationalism. Because the TAF assumed the roles of guardian of the regime and vanguard of modernization, any threat to the foundational values and norms of the republican regime was considered by the military as a threat to the constitutional order and national security. As a self-authorized guardian of the regime and its values, the TAF characterized itself as a non-partisan institution. The military appealed to such identity to justify the superiority of the moral and epistemological foundations of their understanding of politics compared with that of the elected politicians. The military invoked such superiority not only to intervene in politics and take power (1960, 1971, 1980, 1997, and 2007). They also used such identity to monitor and control political processes by means of the National Security Council (established after the 1960 military intervention) and by more informal means such as mobilizing the public against the elected government’s policy choices. In the context of the Cold War, domestic turmoil and lasting political polarization helped legitimate the military’s control over security issues until the 1980s. After the end of the Cold War, two threats to national security drew the TAF into politics: the rising power of Islamic movements and the separatist terrorism of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which posed threats to the constitutional order. Turkey’s EU membership bid is one of the most important aspects that bridled the influence of the TAF on politics. Whereas the democratic oversight of the military and security sector constituted a significant dimension of the EU reforms, events that took place around the nomination of the Justice and Development Party’s candidate, Abdullah Gül, for the presidency created a rupture in the role and influence of the military on politics. Two juristic cases against members of the TAF in 2008 and 2010 made a massive impact on the power of the military, before the ultimate supremacy of the political sphere was established after the coup attempt organized by the Gülenist officers who infiltrated the TAF during the 2000s.


2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 782-792 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amira Sghari

Purpose Employee recognition is presented in the literature as a mean to achieve change according to a schedule already established by the management of the enterprise (planning process). Such an approach overlooks the fact that organizational change can be explained by other processes such as the political process, the interpretive process, the incremental process and the complex process. Each of these processes offers specific characteristics of change. Through this research, the author tries to answer the following question, while driving an organizational change project does employee recognition favour a change according to the planned process? The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach To answer the research question, a qualitative research case study is conducted within Basic Bank, a banking leader institution on the Tunisian market. The author analysed a proposed change induced by the implementation of a Global Banking System. Findings The results show that monetary recognition helps develop employee motivation to change, thus, ensuring a planned change. However, its variability has encouraged the emergence of conflicts between the actors resulting in an increase of change according to the political process. Originality/value Found results enrich the previous work on the role of the staff recognition in the change process. Its originality lies in the study of the relationship between employee recognition and explanatory process of change in a dynamic perspective which enables having an overall view on the evolution of this relationship throughout the implementation of the change.


1967 ◽  
Vol 61 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Easton ◽  
Jack Dennis

In its broadest conception, a political system is a means through which the wants of the members of a society are converted into binding decisions. To sustain a conversion process of this sort a society must provide a relatively stable context for political interaction, a set of ground rules for participating in all parts of the political process. We may describe this context variously as a constitutional order, a set of fundamental rules, or customary procedures for settling differences. But however this context is defined, it usually includes three elements: some minimal constraints on the general goals of its members, rules or norms governing behavior, and structures of authority through which the members of the system act in making and implementing political outputs. To these goals, norms and structures we may give the traditional name “political regime” or constitutional order in the broadest, nonlegal sense of the phrase.We may hypothesize that if a political system is to persist, one of its major tasks is to provide for the input of at least a minimal level of support for a regime of some kind. A political system that proved unable to sustain a regime, that is, some relatively ordered and stable way of converting inputs into outputs, could not avoid collapsing. Each time a dispute arose it would have to seek to agree on means for settling differences at the same time as it sought to bring about a settlement of the substance of the issue, a virtually impossible combination of tasks for a society to engage in continuously.


Subject The political outlook in Togo. Significance On April 28, the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) announced that President Faure Gnassingbe had won re-election in the presidential ballot held on April 25, with 58.75% of the vote. His controversial third term will extend his family's rule to nearly 50 years. Opposition candidate Jean-Pierre Fabre secured 34.95% of the vote. His Combat for Political Change (CAP) alliance rejects the result. Impacts Western donors' effectiveness at pushing for democratic norms will wane as Togo, like other African states, accesses new debt sources. Togo's membership of the West African CFA franc zone, which is backed by the French treasury, will ensure currency stability. A Burkina Faso-style ouster of Gnassingbe is unlikely, for now -- he enjoys the support of the military who first installed him. Despite being spared the Ebola crisis, standards of public health will remain poor, with child mortality rates far above global averages.


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