Israel and Turkey will reap benefits of reconciliation

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Humanitarian Aid ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type

Significance The deal, signed on June 28, puts an end to a long and bitter dispute between the two former strategic partners-turned-rivals that was ignited by the Mavi Marmara incident in 2010, when nine Turkish citizens were killed by Israeli commando forces who boarded the Gaza-bound aid ship in the Eastern Mediterranean. Impacts Bilateral trade will receive a boost, particularly in natural gas and related industries (for example, phosphates), tourism and shipping. Sales of defence-related items may resume in the medium term. Increased humanitarian aid to Gaza will help relieve domestic pressure on Hamas. The deal could unravel in the event of a new conflict between Hamas and Israel. US diplomatic efforts will play an important role in underpinning the agreement.

Cyprus and Aegean rows are cooling Greco-Turkish ties

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
Political Relations ◽  
The Eu

Subject Renewed tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean. Significance After two decades of relative calm, military tensions are on the rise again in the Eastern Mediterranean. At the same time as Turkey is trying to prevent efforts to explore for natural gas off the coast of Cyprus, relations between Athens and Ankara are being strained in the Aegean. These events seem to be driven by an increasingly nationalist outlook in Turkey, which appears to be fuelled by developments in Syria, Ankara’s growing estrangement from its NATO partners and the prospect of elections. Impacts As political relations between Greece and Turkey further deteriorate, economic relations between them will decrease. Calls may grow for Cyprus talks to restart, but a settlement will be harder to find without goodwill between Athens and Ankara. Turkey’s relationship with the EU will be put under further strain as Athens and Nicosia demand solidarity from their European partners.

Bolivia’s gas export revenues are precarious

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Foreign Markets ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Fiscal Revenue ◽  
Export Revenue

Subject Bolivian gas exports. Significance With negotiations under way with Argentina over gas supplies and pricing, Bolivia is seeking to sustain gas exports over the medium term both to this country and to Brazil. These are Bolivia’s only foreign markets for natural gas and between them are its main source of export earnings and fiscal revenue. The gas industry is also a key sector for foreign investment. Impacts Sales of gas to Chile are likely to be blocked because of Bolivia’s dispute over its outlet to the Pacific. Bolivia’s relations with Brazil are likely to become more problematic because of the election of Jair Bolsonaro as Brazilian president. Morales may win re-election next year, but reduced export revenue would eventually weigh on public spending and with that, his popularity.

Gulf states will struggle to meet domestic gas demand

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Associated Gas ◽  
Domestic Markets ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
The Cost

Significance Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are pursuing ambitious natural gas plans that depend on relatively high-cost non-associated gas developments. Impacts The cost of gas in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE will rise, creating further pressure to reform domestic markets. Hoped-for LNG export opportunities are unlikely to be realised in the short-to-medium term. Initial phases of assessment will determine whether the targeted prospects are genuinely commercial. Gas production will be intimately linked with refinery and petrochemical expansion plans.

Brazil's Bolsonaro may see governability erode quickly

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Political Order ◽  
Future Prospects ◽  
Economic Crises ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
Brazilian Politics

Significance Bolsonaro, a retired army captain, had 55.1% of valid votes against 44.9% for Fernando Haddad of the centre-left Worker’s Party (PT). His electoral triumph is a watershed moment in Brazilian politics: it not only puts an end to four consecutive PT victories, but also consolidates the fragmenting of the established political order after long, intertwined political and economic crises. Impacts Bolsonaro will surround himself with military aides. Risks to democracy seem moderate at present, but could escalate quickly in negative scenarios. Uncertainty will rise if the economy fails to gain steam in the short-to-medium term, leading to increased social unrest. Risks could arise if Bolsonaro’s relationship with Congress deteriorates to the point in which his ability to govern is seriously affected. Mercosur's future prospects as a bloc may be in doubt if the government focuses on bilateral trade deals.

Middle East politics will inhibit gas development

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Power Company ◽  
National Power ◽  
Middle East Politics ◽  
Rule Out

Significance The developers of Israel's huge Leviathan offshore natural gas discovery in September signed the first export agreement from the field to supply Jordan's national power company. However, despite vast reserves of gas in the Eastern Mediterranean, this is the region's sole current export deal, with commercial and geopolitical factors complicating wider development. Impacts Sustained low gas prices are likely to rule out extra-regional deals, leaving vast reserves without markets. In the event of Cypriot reunification, it might be possible to export offshore gas from Cyprus to Turkey. Major IOCs will shun investment offshore of Israel for fear of Arab retaliation.

Papua New Guinea investment climate deteriorates

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Papua New Guinea ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
New Guinea ◽  
Investment Climate ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Political and economic outlook for Papua New Guinea. Significance Papua New Guinea (PNG) has benefitted from over a decade of buoyant economic growth, culminating in a forecast GDP growth rate of 15% in 2015. However, the outlook for PNG's major commodity exports (natural gas and gold) is now declining as aggregate demand for resources falls in China and elsewhere in the region. This will lead to a fall in the growth of overall government revenues. Impacts The price for spot market liquefied natural gas exports to Asia is likely to decline. The government will extend its overall fiscal deficit despite announced intentions to reduce debt under the medium-term fiscal strategy. The much-publicised sovereign wealth fund, announced several times but still not implemented, will continue to languish. Diversifying agriculture and fisheries to provide more options for disadvantaged rural populations and SME development will be slow. Foreign investment in PNG will slow down, particularly in gold, copper and other areas of mining.

Turkish-Iraqi-Iranian hydrocarbons links will shift

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
The Caspian Sea ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Northern Iraq ◽  
Regional Market ◽  
Oil And Natural Gas ◽  
Gas Fields ◽  
Regional Elections

Subject Turkish-Iraqi-Iranian hydrocarbons links. Significance Turkish consumption of crude oil and natural gas is rising fast. Iraq and Iran are Turkey's main suppliers of crude oil and Iran a significant supplier of natural gas -- conditions that are reinforced by geographical proximity, existing infrastructure and regional market conditions. However, the prospect of returning US sanctions raises new questions. Impacts Sanctions against Iran could speed up the development of new gas fields in the Caspian Sea, northern Iraq and the Eastern Mediterranean. The impending launch of commercial gas trading on Turkey's EPIAS energy market could help it become a regional hub. Iraqi Kurds will hope for more Turkish gas purchase overtures following their regional elections in November.

Israeli gas ambitions will fall short

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Similar Response ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Interference ◽  
Local Company ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Gas Fields ◽  
Gas Supply

Subject Israel's gas sector. Significance The second Israeli offshore bidding round for 19 blocks closed on July 15, attracting bids from only two consortia for twelve of the 19 blocks on offer. The first consortium consisted of the UK-based companies Cairn Energy and SOCO International along with Israeli company Ratio Oil. The second consortium comprised the Greece-based Energean and local company Israel Opportunity. The response to this round matches a similar response to Israel’s first round in 2017. That round also only received bids from two consortia. Impacts The disappointing bidding round results will preserve the risk of political interference in Israel’s natural gas sector. Israel will remain dependent on a limited number of companies and gas fields for its gas supply. The round's results are unlikely to have any immediate impact on exploration activities in other sectors of the Eastern Mediterranean.

Russia's Novatek ambitious after Yamal LNG success

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Global Market ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Chinese Firms ◽  
Supply Source ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Energy Company ◽  
Downward Pressure ◽  
Gas Supply

Subject Russian LNG development in the Arctic. Significance Russia's first Arctic liquified natural gas (LNG) plant, created and run by the Novatek energy company, is up and running and in two years has doubled the country's share of the global market to 8%. Its success means the outlook is good for a second project, in which shares have been taken up by French and Chinese firms while Saudi investment is still under discussion. Impacts According to Shell LNG Outlook 2019, LNG continues to be the fastest-growing global gas supply source. In the medium term, rising Qatari, US and Australian production will exert downward pressure on LNG prices. Novatek investments in a Murmansk construction yard and transhipment hubs in Murmansk and Kamchatka are helping less developed regions.

Natural gas revolution will boost Mexico's economy

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Energy Input ◽  
Rapid Expansion ◽  
Electricity Prices ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Energy Reforms

Subject Mexico's opening of the gas sector is driving a rapid expansion of its pipeline network. Significance While the opening of the oil sector was the most high-profile feature of President Enrique Pena Nieto's ambitious 2013-14 energy reforms, the plunge in the global price of crude and the oil industry's dim medium-term outlook have chilled the enthusiasm of domestic and foreign investors. However, the equally radical liberalisation of the natural gas sector has somewhat rosier prospects, given stagnant domestic production and the need for increased pipeline infrastructure to feed the industrial sector's hunger for US gas. Impacts Cheap US natural gas could reduce electricity prices by as much as 13.0%, boosting manufacturing production by up to 3.9%. Greater availability could boost the auto industry, in particular, where gas makes up 29% of energy input. Imports of Texan gas should eventually allow the reduction of more expensive purchases of LNG from further afield.

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