Political splits hamstring governance in South Korea

Significance The day before, however, a Blue House meeting with leaders of three main political parties saw no agreement nor any joint statement. Park angrily denied opposition charges that she is exploiting the security situation for political purposes. Impacts Factional and succession struggles could yet fracture Park's conservative Saenuri party. To regain the Blue House the two liberal parties must reunite behind a single candidate; that will be difficult. Pyongyang knows Park's time is limited and will be planning for her successor, who may approach the North differently. Praise from ratings agencies cuts little ice with voters. The woes of shipper Hanjin, plus a September 12 earthquake, bolster impressions that Park cannot handle crises.

Significance South Korea’s unification minister (MOU) warned on April 10 that any US strike on North Korea would put “the safety of the public” at risk. A day later, Seoul’s defence (MND) and foreign (MFA) ministries dismissed rumours on local social media of an imminent war crisis as “overblown” and “groundless”, respectively. Moon Jae-in, the liberal opposition candidate whom most polls predict will win the May 9 snap presidential election, said he does not expect a US pre-emptive strike on the North. However, Moon also warned Washington that South Korea is “the concerned party” which “owns” peninsula-related matters, including the nuclear issue. Impacts Experienced military professionals in Trump’s cabinet and National Security Council are a restraining influence. South Korea and Japan, being in the front line, will counsel their US protector against any action that might imperil their security. If Moon Jae-in is elected, his desire to re-engage the North will clash with Trump’s hard-line attitude and narrow nuclear focus. After his smooth -- if insubstantial -- summit with Xi, Trump’s threatened unilateralism on North Korea is likely to stop at sanctions.


Significance However, opposition political parties and former rebels, most prominently northern Mali’s main ex-rebel bloc, the Coordination of Movements of Azawad (CMA), refuse to participate in the dialogue. Substantial tensions between the government and CMA present worrying signals about the trajectory of Mali's peace process. Impacts Rising insecurity will prompt neighbouring states to apply greater pressure on Bamako to resolve the situation in northern Mali. Jihadist leader Iyad ag Ghali will be central to resolving the political question in the north. France’s opposition to talks with jihadists may delay or preclude altogether such an option.


2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-74
Author(s):  
Nam Kwang Kyu

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present the North Korea policy pursued by the Moon Jae-in administration and discuss the possibility of a weakened alliance between South Korea and the USA. Design/methodology/approach This paper compares the North Korean policies and the ROK–US alliance under the Moon administration, analyzing the recent inter-Korean and North Korea–US summits, with a focus on the issues of denuclearization and establishing a peace regime. Findings This paper reveals that the approach taken by the Moon administration regarding North Korea is similar to that of North Korea and China, and that the ROK–US alliance is likely to weaken should there be any change concerning the North Korean nuclear issue. Originality/value Denuclearization takes place in accordance with the agreement between North Korea and the USA, there is a high likelihood of the ROK–US alliance weakening.


Subject Stability risks in Tajikistan. Significance In a May 22 referendum, voters in Tajikistan gave President Emomali Rahmon the right to stand for office repeatedly, in effect making him president for life. He is consolidating his power around a narrow base of relatives and allies at a time of particular economic stress. Another constitutional change banning faith-based political parties targeted the Islamic Rebirth Party (IRP), a significant and moderate force outlawed in 2015. Impacts Tajikistan will seek membership of the Eurasian Economic Union to secure better opportunities for labour migrants in Russia. Cut off by Uzbekistan to the north, Tajikistan will try to expand trade and energy routes to South Asia. Moscow will conduct regular counter-insurgency wargames through the Collective Security Treaty Organisation.


Subject The risk of South Korea developing nuclear weapons. Significance The most serious political risk on the Korean peninsula, after war and the collapse of the North Korean regime, is the possibility that South Korea will develop nuclear weapons. This is extremely unlikely under the current administration but more plausible -- if still unlikely -- under the next. South Korea's democratic system could produce change very quickly, as democracies elsewhere did with Brexit and the election of Donald Trump. The weapons could probably be completed within a couple of years. Impacts Nuclear armament is more likely under a future conservative administration; the current centre-left government has ruled it out. South Korean nuclear armament would be a major setback for global non-proliferation efforts. Japan would be unlikely to follow suit in the near future, but resistance there would be eroded.


Subject US missile defence in East Asia. Significance South Korean and US officials announced today that the two countries had reached agreement to deploy an advanced missile defence system (known as THAAD) in South Korea -- a development Beijing has publicly and vociferously opposed. Impacts THAAD will demonstrate to China the need to upgrade its nuclear deterrent capabilities and modify its nuclear doctrine. THAAD has cross-party support in South Korea; domestic politics is unlikely to block deployment. THAAD will not make South Korea immune to nuclear attack from the North.


Subject Politics and exchange rate reform. Significance Plans to introduce a modest reform in mid-2017 to make the exchange rate system more flexible have been held up by political tensions. The delay has raised questions about the effectiveness of the coalition government formed in April, more than six months after the general election. Impacts The political scene will remain highly charged, with simmering protests in the north. Power struggles within several of the leading political parties will also slow policymaking. Given the difficulty of the decision and uncertain political environment, politicians will wait to see what the king tells them to do.


2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 11-15
Author(s):  
Volodymyr Shypovskyi ◽  
Volodymyr Cherneha ◽  
Serhiy Marchenkov

Recent events in Ukraine have shown that, along with the advancement of information technology, methods of conducting modern warfare are being enhanced. Cyberspace is deliberately used by the Russian Federation to commit cyber warfare against Ukraine. Therefore, in order to address their influence effectively, it is important not only successfully deal with its consequences but also to foresee the potential adversaryʼs actions by analyzing their previous operations and incorporating the lessons learned by other countries. Across the globe, including Ukraine, the issue of information security and cyberattacks has become exceedingly urgent. Everybody is aware of the ongoing attacks on information networks of various government agencies and energy firms, cyberattacks on e-mail networks of political parties and organizations around the world. Likewise, despite the steadily growing numbers, cyberattack cases against the individuals and private businesses are not reported as widely as they occur. As a result, The North Atlantic Alliance countries began tackling the issue of cyberthreats much earlier than Ukraine. Consequently, NATO and its allies rely on powerful and robust cyber defenses to ensure the Alliance's core tasks of collective defense. The article discusses methods and strategies for providing cyber defense in NATO member states and recommends ways to increase the level of protection in the state's cyber space, as part of Ukraineʼs national security and defense domain.


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