Burundi regime survival eclipses international status

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Forced Migration ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Constitutional Change ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regime Survival ◽  
The Government ◽  
Chief Prosecutor ◽  
International Status

Significance The decision was the latest move by the government to spurn international involvement in its political crisis. Relations between Burundi and the ICC have been deteriorating since the ICC chief prosecutor announced in April an investigation into political violence that has engulfed the country since President Pierre Nkurunziza's controversial decision to seek a third term in office. Impacts Aid suspensions or sanctions could raise the price of isolation, but implementation will require coordination, an uncertain proposition. The president and his supporters will move toward consolidating power, including through constitutional change. Burundi may withdraw its contingent of troops from the AU Mission in Somalia. Renewed insecurity would drive further forced migration above the hundreds of thousands already displaced.

Delayed Congolese election will prompt a crisis

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Political Process ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Opposition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Dissent ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
The Government

Significance Crackdowns against the political opposition have increased as the government tries to stifle political dissent. The constitution mandates presidential and national assembly elections by late November, but the incumbent, President Joseph Kabila, appears unwilling to leave office despite reaching his term limit. Impacts Tshisekedi's return will raise the stakes in the country's political crisis. Instability or political violence risks shattering DRC's fragile economic recovery. The UN could expand the mandate of its mission in the DRC depending on the outcome of the political process.

Creeping authoritarianism is a real risk in Tunisia

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Risk ◽  
Chief Prosecutor ◽  
Moderating Role ◽  
The Eu

Significance He did not name a new prime minister. Over July 25-26, Saied dismissed Prime Minister Hicham Mechichi, dissolved his government, suspended parliament for 30 days, lifted parliamentary immunity and declared himself chief prosecutor, triggering Tunisia’s worst political crisis in a decade. Impacts The Ennahda party could be persecuted once again, this time on corruption charges, as the reconciliation offered excludes its members. Tunisia may become a new ideological battleground, pitting Turkey and Qatar against the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The EU, the United States and Algeria have some influence on Tunisia and could perhaps play a moderating role.

South Sudan's multiple conflicts will not subside

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Sudan ◽  
Humanitarian Aid ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
South Sudanese ◽  
The Government ◽  
Sudanese Refugees

Significance South Sudan is facing severe conflict and insecurity, a prolonged political crisis, and dire economic conditions. A peace agreement signed in August 2015 is falling apart, and fighting and violence during the past year has caused the number of South Sudanese refugees in Uganda to rise to 900,000 -- with a further 375,000 in Sudan and 287,000 in Ethiopia. Earlier this year, aid agencies declared a famine situation in several counties, and appealed for more humanitarian aid and improved access. Impacts Oil output is likely to remain at, or near, 130,000-160,000 barrels per day. Juba’s fiscal situation will remain precarious, with the government unable to secure loans from donors. Unrest and limited strikes over salary arrears could increase.

IMF lending will prod Ukraine to sustain reforms

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Capital Markets ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
International Capital ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Capital Markets ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Government

Significance After releasing 1 billion dollars in April, the IMF is urging Ukraine to implement land and pension reforms to make it eligible for further lending tranches. The government is finding it hard to pursue controversial changes opposed by many voters and taken up as causes by the political opposition. Gontareva's resignation reflects a lack of government support and is a setback for the reformist camp. Impacts The 'economic war' emerging alongside armed conflict in the east will dent prospects for growth and reform. Failure to secure further IMF financing could accelerate the planned return to international capital markets, perhaps in the third quarter. Attempts to push through reforms such as land sales may lead to increased political strife but not a full-blown political crisis.

Abductions will deepen fear among Tanzanian activists

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Dar Es Salaam ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Concrete Action ◽  
The Government

Subject Political violence in Tanzania. Significance In early July, Raphael Ongangi, a Kenyan businessman and former aide to firebrand Tanzanian opposition leader Zitto Kabwe, was found alive in Mombasa, Kenya, having been abducted in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, some eight days earlier. This incident is only the latest in a string of similar incidents that appear primarily to target anti-government critics. Impacts Public distrust in security organs will deteriorate further if concrete action or transparent investigations are not undertaken. Dissenting voices may become rarer as critics weigh the risks to themselves and those around them. Fear among prominent figures will likely cause more to express support for the government for fear of being deemed anti-government.

Political crisis threatens Brazil's tentative recovery

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Class ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Construction Company ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Government

Significance The requests are based on plea bargains from former executives of construction company Odebrecht. While the names in ‘Janot’s list’ have not been disclosed, several of them have leaked to the media. They include six ministers in the government of President Michel Temer, two former presidents, ten state governors, and the heads of both houses of Congress. If confirmed, this would make the list a potent bombshell for the Brazilian political class. Impacts The corruption scandal looks set to disrupt next year’s presidential election. Politicians’ disdain for accountability will fuel outrage with the political class. The ground could be fertile for a candidate claiming to be an ‘outsider’.

Mauritanian president’s ambitions may shape elections

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Services ◽  
Constitutional Change ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Term Limit ◽  
Municipal Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Street Protest ◽  
The Government ◽  
One Year

Subject Prospects for a presidential third term and the upcoming local and legislative elections. Significance Legislative and municipal elections due towards the end of this year will be a significant political test for both the government and President Mohamed Ould Abdelaziz, just one year before the crucial 2019 presidential contest. Despite his denials of any ambition to stand for a third term, there is a widespread expectation that Abdelaziz will seek to remain in office. However, that would mean scrapping the current two-term limit -- a constitutional change that would require a two-thirds majority in the national assembly. Change could provoke protests at home and criticism from Western allies. Impacts The main lines of policy on the economy, the extractives sector and public services would be unlikely to change under a new president. The IMF’s December 2017 decision to approve a new three-year programme provides a stable framework for investors. The regime will crack down hard on any large public street protest that appears likely to gather momentum.

Rising South African populism will divide parties

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Political Violence ◽  
Land Reform ◽  
Economic Freedom ◽  
Capital Flight ◽  
Land Expropriation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Kwazulu Natal ◽  
Freedom Fighters ◽  
The Government

Significance His comments come amid lingering concern over parliament’s endorsement last month of land expropriation without compensation. The contested policy was proposed by the leftist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and backed by the ruling ANC, but the main opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) argues that such a policy will jeopardise property rights and lead to capital flight. Impacts Improving national land and agricultural data collection will prove crucial to substantive land reform. Attempts to overhaul land reform policy could see a deterioration in relations between the government and traditional leaders. Political violence in flashpoints such as KwaZulu-Natal province could worsen ahead of the 2019 poll.

Rising oil prices will bolster Ecuador’s Moreno

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Environmental Discourse ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Yasuni National Park ◽  
Fiscal Conditions ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
International Investors ◽  
The Government ◽  
Oil Revenues

Significance Higher oil prices have eased pressures on Ecuador’s trade balance and public finances, helping President Lenin Moreno as he attempts to ameliorate the political crisis that has gripped his government since his inauguration in May. However, the oil sector faces challenges including tight fiscal conditions, production cuts and widespread corruption. Impacts Higher oil prices will reassure international investors that the government will be able to honour its rising debt obligations. Moreno is likely to secure referendum backing for his plans to increase the protection of the Yasuni National Park. Moreno will find it difficult to reconcile his environmental discourse with his need to bring in fresh oil revenues over the longer term.

Maduro risks mounting militarisation in Venezuela

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Military Intervention ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
General Assembly ◽  
Security Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
American States ◽  
Course Of Action ◽  
The Government

Significance It is as yet unclear whether the police officer in question acted alone, although he apparently once worked for former Interior and Justice Minister Miguel Rodriguez Torres, who, the government claims, is linked to the CIA and whose arrest has reportedly been ordered. The death toll in ongoing anti-government protests continues to rise, now totalling an estimated 75 since April. The failure of the Organization of American States (OAS) to agree a resolution on Venezuela at its General Assembly has emboldened Caracas while demonstrating the inability of the regional body to determine a course of action that can help to resolve the country’s political crisis. Impacts Violence will continue as the opposition relies on protests to weaken the government and erode participation in the assembly elections. Each protest-related death is serving to entrench a paralysing cycle of demonstration and repression. As the OAS flounders, the United States will likely move unilaterally to impose new sanctions on Venezuelan officials. Changes to military figures in the government will deepen political rifts between different elements and factions in the security sector. Yesterday's attack suggests that, in the event of a serious military intervention, this would be violent and bloody.

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