Divergent goals will rock Saudi-Egyptian relations

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Gulf War ◽  
Oil Products ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Refined Oil ◽  
Regional Order

Significance The oil shipments were part of a five-year deal that Saudi would provide Egypt with 700,000 tonnes of refined oil products per month, but these were stopped in early October amid a row over Egypt's position towards Syria. Relations between Saudi Arabia and Egypt have served as a bedrock of stability in the Middle East for much of the period since the second Gulf War (1990-91), but this subset of the regional order now appears in jeopardy. Impacts If Riyadh withholds investments or future assistance, the Egyptian economy may deteriorate even further. Should Egypt's economic crisis deepen, its political stability outlook would look uncertain at best and unsustainable at worst. This crisis compounds the Kingdom's recent regional setbacks, as the Syrian and Yemeni wars slide towards unfavourable outcomes for Riyadh.

UAE will pursue foreign activism despite rising risks

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Humanitarian Intervention ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Abu Dhabi ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Standing ◽  
Roll Back

Significance UAE forces were vital to the coalition's taking of Aden and southern Yemen from Huthi control in July. The UAE's strong military commitment to the Saudi-led drive to roll back the Huthis is part of the Gulf state's more assertive and interventionist policy as it seeks to contain Iranian and Islamist influence in the post-2011 Middle East. However, greater interventionism brings with it significant risks for the UAE, particularly for its military capabilities, international standing and political stability. Impacts The UAE's strong record on external humanitarian intervention will facilitate international reconstruction efforts in Yemen. In the longer term, Abu Dhabi will seek a greater decision-making role in internal Yemeni affairs. Relations with Saudi Arabia may face strain if UAE fighting capabilities continues to outshine those of Saudi troops and Yemeni militias. Gulf unity may begin to fray if the Yemen campaign returns to stalemate or coalition casualties mount.

India and Iran will develop ties within constraints

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Content Type

Significance Jaishankar was visiting Iran for the second time in a month, having stopped over on his way to Russia on July 7. Delhi and Tehran have long had good relations, but ties have been somewhat strained in recent years because of tensions between Tehran and key Indian partner Washington. Impacts India will deepen engagement with Iran’s enemies Israel and Saudi Arabia as part of its balanced Middle East diplomacy. Iran will promote integration of the Chabahar port with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, overlooking Indian objections to such a move. Delhi-Washington security ties will grow stronger.

The Battle for Syria

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Phillips
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Civil War ◽  
Middle East ◽  
The United States ◽  
External Factors ◽  
International Dimension ◽  
Regional Order ◽  
Regional Factors

This book provides an analysis of the crucial but underexplored roles the United States and other nations have played in shaping Syria's ongoing civil war. Most accounts of Syria's brutal, long-lasting civil war focus on a domestic contest that began in 2011 and only later drew foreign nations into the escalating violence. The book argues instead that the international dimension was never secondary but that Syria's war was, from the very start, profoundly influenced by regional factors, particularly the vacuum created by a perceived decline of U.S. power in the Middle East. This precipitated a new regional order in which six external protagonists — the United States, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar — have violently competed for influence, with Syria a key battleground. Drawing on a plethora of original interviews, the book constructs a new narrative of Syria's war. Without absolving the brutal Bashar al-Assad regime, the book untangles the key external factors which explain the acceleration and endurance of the conflict, including the West's strategy against ISIS. It concludes with some insights on Syria and the region's future.

Iran's oil production will stabilise

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Production ◽  
Oil Products ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Refined Oil ◽  
Market Opening ◽  
Oil Revenue ◽  
Stable Production ◽  
International Sanctions ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
International Investors

Significance The oil sector is bouncing back after the lifting of international sanctions. Production has risen from an average of 2.8 million bpd during 2015, and is now approaching pre-sanctions levels. The country has finalised new-style petroleum contracts offering more favourable terms to international investors. Impacts Banking, compliance and sanctions issues will gradually ease, reducing pressure on the oil sector. A stable production outlook will facilitate efforts to agree an OPEC production freeze. Oil revenue in 2016 could reach 31.5 billion dollars, 75% up on 2015, easing the fiscal situation. Exports of petrochemicals and refined oil products will rise, on the back of higher oil output and market opening.

Imran Khan is likely to become Pakistan prime minister

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Main Challenge ◽  
To Come ◽  
The Military

Significance The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)’s five-year term ended on May 31. PML-N President Shehbaz Sharif faces a tough fight to become prime minister, with the main challenge set to come from Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and further opposition provided by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). Impacts With Khan as prime minister, the military would likely have free rein to pursue an anti-India foreign policy. Khan would step up his criticisms of the war in Afghanistan and likely have a difficult relationship with US President Donald Trump. Pakistan under any government will pursue balanced diplomacy in the Middle East, seeking good ties with both Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Cutbacks increase risk of elite infighting in Qatar

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Royal Family ◽  
World Cup ◽  
Fifa World Cup ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Increase Risk ◽  
Double Digit

Subject Qatar domestic politics. Significance Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani carried out a cabinet reshuffle on January 27. The reshuffle saw the promotion of a number of new ministers and a reduction in the overall number of ministries, reflecting efforts by the emir to clear out the 'old guard', and cut costs as the country enters a period of fiscal tightening after years of double-digit growth. Impacts Some of the pledged 200 billion dollars in spending ahead of the 2022 FIFA World Cup may also be at risk. Financial stress will temper Qatar's 'appetite' for foreign policy autonomy and reinforce its realignment with Saudi Arabia. Factional infighting within the royal family is likely to be a greater threat to political stability than social dissent.

A new OPEC+ deal would not resolve Russia's problems

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Growth And Development ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Funding Sources ◽  
Global Demand ◽  
Price Management ◽  
Price War

Significance As the COVID-19 pandemic depressed Chinese and global demand for oil, Russia and Saudi Arabia broke off their three-year price management agreement, sending prices tumbling. Moscow insists it can weather the storm, but low oil prices further complicate the adverse economic conditions stemming from COVID-19. Russia has the funding sources to prop up its budget, but this implies abandoning ambitious plans to invest in growth and development. Impacts The disintegration of OPEC+ would undermine Russia's wider attempts to win political partners in the Middle East. Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan signed up to OPEC+ but are less willing or able to side with Russia in a price war. Rosneft's divestment of its Venezuelan assets shows a greater sensitivity to sanctions risks in a tougher market.

The image of Portugal as a tourist destination – an international perspective

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 397-412 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mónica Montenegro ◽  
Jorge Costa ◽  
Daniela Rodrigues ◽  
João Gomes
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
International Study ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
International Perspective ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Tourist Destination ◽  
Ongoing Research ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Tourism Promotion ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – This article aims to identify the image of Portugal as a tourist destination in international markets and the impacts of the economic crisis on that image. As the basis for the analysis, the results from the past three years of an ongoing research by IPDT – Institute of Tourism on this topic were used. The findings were used to support a discussion on the need for social and political stability and a climate of creativity and innovation in the tourism sector to foster growth and success. Design/methodology/approach – The article is based on official tourism information, research by IPDT on the tourists’ profile in Portugal and an ongoing research on “the image of Portugal as a tourist destination” carried out using as population the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) Affiliate Members directory. Findings – The international tourism market recognizes and appreciates the destination – Portugal, recognizing that the present context of crisis does not negatively affect Portugal’s touristic image. The results presented and discussed indicate a preference by respondents for “Wine” as the main touristic product that should be associated to Portugal in its international tourism promotion. This perception is clearly aligned with the prominence that Portuguese wines have been taking internationally and a perspective that indicates alternative products to the traditional “sun and sea” associated with the country’s tourism image. Practical implications – The research results presented and the supporting discussion allow for a better understanding on the present image of Portugal as a tourist destination and the alternative attributes to traditional “sun and sea” that may be used in its international promotion. These results may indicate the need for a repositioning of the destination by the introduction of new elements in the promotional messages. The reflexions presented may be of great use for decision-makers in-charge of international tourism promotion. Originality/value – This article analysis the impact of the economic crisis on the image of Portugal as a tourist destination, based on an international study carried out over a 3-year period. The results alert for possible discrepancies between the destinations positioning and the perceptions and desires of the markets.

Bahrain's economic crisis heightens stability risks

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Security Threat ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fiscal Constraints ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
Litmus Test ◽  
Crown Prince

Significance With oil prices at an eleven-year low and a budget breakeven price of over 120 dollars, fiscal pressures are spiralling in Bahrain. The kingdom faces the most severe fiscal adjustment of all Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states and is likely to become a litmus test for whether politically sensitive economic reforms can be pushed through and implemented across the Gulf. Impacts Other GCC states will increase aid to Bahrain, but will only be able to alleviate its crisis partially due to their own fiscal constraints. Growing ISG activity in Bahrain will reinforce its deep sectarian fissures which represent a new security threat to the regime. Crown Prince Salman will use the economic crisis to try to regain the centre ground in Bahraini politics lost to hardliners in 2011. This would improve Bahrain's longer-term political stability outlook.

Oil products sales will boost Belarus growth

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Products ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Refined Oil ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Political Cooperation ◽  
Trade War ◽  
Manufactured Exports

Significance Belarus's emergence from recession this year is a consequence of reliance on the Russian economy and on refined oil prices in Europe, just as the contraction of 2015-16 was. The country imports cheap Russian crude, refines it and sells it at market prices to Europe. Impacts Healthier trade with Russia may undermine recent steps toward closer political cooperation with Europe. Ukraine was an important destination of manufactured exports during Russia's recession, but that trend is receding. If an ongoing diplomatic row extends into a trade war, Ukraine will lose more in economic terms than Belarus.

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