South Korea approaches political turning point

Subject The outlook for South Korea's domestic politics and international relationships. Significance Like the rest of the world, South Korea worries about how the unpredictable actions of US President Donald Trump's administration might affect it. At home, meanwhile, the impeachment of President Park Geun-hye, which she strongly contests, creates a power vacuum and prolongs manifold uncertainties, including when the country's next president will be elected and who it will be. Impacts If the Constitutional Court reinstates Park, hitherto peaceful mass protests could turn violent. Bonhomie with US Defense Secretary James Mattis may not last if Park's successor tries to re-engage Pyongyang. Missile defence has been mishandled, but deployment still looks likely this year. China's blatant bullying over missile defence dashes prospects of Beijing turning anti-US sentiment in South Korea to its advantage.

Significance Tehran’s more sophisticated sanctions avoidance tactics and greater willingness to test Washington’s enforcement have substantially boosted exports from 2019 lows. The slow progress on a US-Iranian mutual return to compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), has increased market uncertainty. Impacts Before sanctions lifting, limited waivers might add a few hundred thousand b/d of exports to US allies such as India, Japan and South Korea. New foreign oil investment will depend on views of Tehran’s domestic politics after June polls and the durability of a deal with Washington. Post-sanctions, Iran’s efforts to regain market share will create tensions with OPEC+ partners in quota negotiations.


2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-20
Author(s):  
Mamta Bhardwaj ◽  
Ajit Singh Naosekpam ◽  
Rupinder Tewari

Purpose This paper represents a comparative study of five Asian countries, namely, Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, China and India, based on the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) 2015-2016 published by the World Economic Forum. The purpose of this study is to assess India’s position vis-a-vis the various comparator Asian economies and to identify areas for improvement so as to enhance India’s competitiveness. Design/methodology/approach The study is based on the comparisons and analysis of the ranks of each country. These ranks are based on the indicators related to three categories, i.e. “Basic Requirements”, “Efficiency Enhancers” and “Innovation and Sophistication” Factors. The GCI included data from internationally recognised agencies such as the IMF, the WHO and the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization. Findings On the basis of the aforementioned comparisons among these five Asian economies, it was found that Singapore (Rank-2) has made stupendous economic progress and is amongst the top five successful economies of the world. Taiwan, South Korea and China also have taken significant economic strides and are ranked globally at 15, 26 and 28, respectively. India, on the other hand, is ranked 55 out of 140 nations. Research limitations/implications In this paper, the countries were compared on the basis of their rank in the GCI Report 2015-2016. For an in-depth and more holistic study, comparison can be done by taking into consideration other important reports and analysis in this regard. Originality/value This is an original study where the developments that have taken place in the five Asian economies have been analysed based on the GCI. Most importantly, this study identifies the area/indicator in which India needs to improve to be placed among the developed nations.


Subject The outlook for the solar photovoltaic sector in China. Significance The EU's decision last month to remove tariffs on imported Chinese solar panels follows a US move to increase tariffs. It also comes at a time when international prices for panels are falling in response to a reduction of subsides for the deployment of solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity in China. Impacts Falling prices will stimulate further installation of solar PV capacity across the world, especially in sunny regions. Chinese manufacturers will further expand their capacity both at home and abroad. Non-Chinese PV manufacturers will find their profits squeezed even further unless they are protected by import controls. The rate of deployment of new solar PV capacity within China will decline, but still remain substantial.


Subject Calls for China to be more transparent over COVID-19's origins and spread. Significance China has a critical role to play in providing data to the rest of the world on infections and fatalities related to COVID-19. However, there are widespread doubts over the reliability of the data that China supplies. Impacts Criticism at home and abroad will do nothing to change the Communist Party’s calculation of the risks and benefits of transparency. Beijing will view foreign criticism of its data as deliberately subversive. Beijing will dismiss public calls for greater transparency in favour of even stronger central control.


Subject Prospects for US foreign policy in 2022. Significance After a first year in office dominated by the situation at home, the Biden administration aims to deliver a more developed and focused foreign policy agenda in 2022. Many foreign policy goals will remain largely unchanged. While there will be greater efforts to strengthen ties with allies through mechanisms such as the Quad, the emphasis on issues other than those involving China may be increasingly affected by domestic politics.


Significance The ‘exploratory’ meeting is the first between the NATO partners since 2016. It follows months of sabre-rattling in the Eastern Mediterranean, and takes place against the backdrop of other conciliatory signals Turkey has begun sending to the West and countries in its region. Impacts A recent law will bring home state-owned energy assets and subsidiaries abroad, in hopes of protecting against further Western sanctions. More stable and predictable policies towards the West and regionally could do much to boost investor sentiment and support the fragile lira. Domestic politics ahead of elections will make it very difficult to offer concessions on the Kurdish issue, at home or in Syria and Iraq.


Significance Professing fury at the exercises, Pyongyang insulted South Korean President Moon Jae-in and says it will no longer talk to Seoul. The South Korean and Japanese foreign ministers met today in Beijing, amid worsening bilateral relations. South Korea’s presidential office said today that it will review “until the last moment” whether or not to renew the bilateral General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) with Tokyo, set to expire on August 24. Impacts With 'face' at stake and populist passions aroused, palpable economic pain may be necessary before Japan and South Korea de-escalate. Pyongyang’s recent flurry of missile tests indicates impatience; longer-range missiles might dent the US president’s professed indifference. A recent top-level North Korean military visit to China signifies a new field of cooperation. North Korea’s army may be regaining political heft in Pyongyang.


2013 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary Wilson ◽  
Sarah Wilson

Purpose– Located within growing scholarly interest in linking the global financial crisis with revelations of financial crime, this piece utilises Roman Tomasic's suggestion that the financial crisis has marked something of a turning point in regulatory responses to financial crime worldwide. Tomasic attributes this to changing attitudes towards light-touch regulation and risk assessment, and the demand for existing agencies to be replaced with new tougher authorities. In the UK, this can be illustrated by the imminent replacement of the FSA with the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). The paper aims to discuss these issues.Design/methodology/approach– Discussion of the FSA's financial crime fighting activity is an important forecast for the likely directional focus of the FCA in this regard. A focus only on “market abuse” enforcement within this arises on account of the effects for financial systems widely attributed to this activity, with threats to systemic stability being a hallmark of the 2007-2008 financial crisis. This methodology also encourages coherence in focus and management of sources within the article. Market abuse enforcement provides a lens for exploring the FSA's adoption of the philosophy and ethos of “credible deterrence”, and FCA commitment to retain it, and ultimately for applying the hypothesis of the “haphazard pursuit of financial crime” to pre-crisis criminal enforcement relating to financial crime undertaken by the FSA.Findings– The FSA and FCA appear acutely aware that the financial crisis has marked something of a turning point for the enforcement of financial crime, and for signalling changes in approach, for the reasons explored by Tomasic. Tomasic correctly identifies factors encouraging a range of undesirable practices pre-crisis, and ones signalling tougher and more sustained attention being paid to financial crime henceforth. It is noted that, pre-crisis, the FSA's pursuit of criminal enforcement of market abuse was conscious, comprehensively resourced, well publicised, and actually extensive.Originality/value– This exploration of the FSA's criminal enforcement of market abuse given the Authority's own perceptions that it was not, and could never be, a “mainstream” criminal prosecutor considers the likely lasting legacy of this determined pursuit, when domestic politics and pan-European policies suggested against this. This is likely to be enormously valuable as the FCA undertakes this task in a domestic arena which is markedly in contrast from this, and where European agendas are pushing in favour of criminal enforcement, with the “more Europe, or less” debate providing a further dimension of interest.


Significance The agreement, once ratified, will create a new trade bloc that encompasses 36% of global GDP. Impacts US congressional politics could quickly undo years of diplomatic work. Malaysian domestic politics could be another stumbling block. South Korea may be the next economy to join; Taiwan's entry will be much slower. The political benefits will probably outweigh the costs for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.


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