Trade war with rebels reduces Ukraine's options

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Power Stations ◽  
Freight Traffic ◽  
Anthracite Coal ◽  
Trade War ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Warfare

Significance The rebel takeover of Ukrainian-owned businesses is a response to Kyiv's decision yesterday to halt freight traffic to and from the region, as economic warfare temporarily takes precedence over armed conflict. Kyiv's trade ban in effect institutionalises a railway blockade that has interrupted Ukraine's coal supplies since January and was opposed until now by the government. Impacts If the government hopes to use the trade ban as a negotiating tool to pressure the rebels, it is a high-risk strategy liable to backfire. A step intended to show strength makes the government look weak and invites opposition pressure, including calls for early elections. Kyiv must urgently find new suppliers of the anthracite coal on which half its power stations run.

Challenges to economic integration and social inclusion of Syrian refugees in Turkey

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 14-18
Author(s):  
Christina Bache
Keyword(s):  
Economic Integration ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Social Inclusion ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Syrian Refugees ◽  
Independent Research ◽  
Humanitarian Crisis ◽  
Local Dynamics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Purpose The following question drove this research: Would the pursuit of a rights-based approach, one that considers local dynamics and political sensitivities result in greater economic integration and social inclusion of Syrian refugees in Turkey? The paper aims to discuss this issue. Design/methodology/approach This piece draws on independent research the author conducted in Turkey and other frontline states to the war in Syria from 2016 to 2018. Findings Despite a shift in government policy toward Syrian refugees, without an overarching rights-based approach that includes the participation of all stakeholders and considers local dynamics and political sensitivities, enhancing the livelihood security of Syrian refugees and vulnerable members of host communities remains bleak in Turkey. Originality/value This original paper closely examines the Government of Turkey’s response to the humanitarian crisis that was precipitated by the armed conflict in Syria. The paper also examines the socioeconomic dynamics and increased tensions between the Syrian refugee and host communities.

Burundi's security outlook will remain fragile

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Infrastructure Investments ◽  
The Government

Significance The government denounced the attacks as acts of terrorism and claimed to have killed one assailant and arrested five others. However, no information has been released on the alleged perpetrators and no group has claimed responsibility. Impacts Although growth is recovering slightly, the government is unlikely to meet its (already modest) 2021/22 budgetary targets. To boost the economy, the president desperately needs the kind of stimulus that infrastructure investments can provide. Though official case numbers are low, a slow vaccine rollout means Burundi will remain at high risk of further COVID-19-related disruptions.

Food insecurity will persist in South Sudan

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Food Aid ◽  
Agricultural Activity ◽  
Economic Management ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Agricultural Produce ◽  
Political Forces ◽  
The Government

Significance Areas of South Sudan were once predicted to become the ‘food basket’ of East Africa, making the country a net exporter of agricultural produce. However, even before independence in 2011, the government did little to increase agricultural output. Meanwhile, severe under-development, armed conflict and resulting displacement of civilians have together meant that food insecurity has been a persistent feature of life for many. Localised intensifications in fighting, disruptions to market routes and obstructions by parties to conflict have recently caused increases in food insecurity, tipping some of the population into famine conditions. Impacts Conflict has resulted in displacements, limiting subsistence agricultural activity. Poor economic management, leading to high and rising inflation, has rendered the food in the markets unaffordable to most of the population. Political forces have actively prevented food aid from reaching those in need, exacerbating the famine.

IMF lending will prod Ukraine to sustain reforms

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Capital Markets ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
International Capital ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Capital Markets ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Government

Significance After releasing 1 billion dollars in April, the IMF is urging Ukraine to implement land and pension reforms to make it eligible for further lending tranches. The government is finding it hard to pursue controversial changes opposed by many voters and taken up as causes by the political opposition. Gontareva's resignation reflects a lack of government support and is a setback for the reformist camp. Impacts The 'economic war' emerging alongside armed conflict in the east will dent prospects for growth and reform. Failure to secure further IMF financing could accelerate the planned return to international capital markets, perhaps in the third quarter. Attempts to push through reforms such as land sales may lead to increased political strife but not a full-blown political crisis.

Ukraine coal shortages risk winter crisis

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Coal Mines ◽  
Heating Power ◽  
Coal Extraction ◽  
Energy Problem ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Power Stations ◽  
The Government

Subject Kyiv's next energy problem. Significance Although Ukraine and Russia have agreed a new so-called 'winter package' gas deal until March 2016, Kyiv faces another energy problem. With so many of Ukraine's coal mines lying in war-ravaged Donbas, the nation's coal extraction has fallen significantly and the government is facing shortages. Impacts If Ukraine's heating power stations enter winter with inadequate reserves of coal, this will create a season of power cuts. Unprecedented energy economising may accelerate, which could lead to increased public discontent. The coal industry's inefficiency will keep the issue of privatisation on the government's agenda, but economic woes will hinder this.

Khartoum will resist committing to power sharing

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflict ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
The West ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government ◽  
South Kordofan

Significance Since South Sudan seceded in 2011, Khartoum has confronted conflict on three fronts. Armed conflict escalated in Blue Nile and South Kordofan in mid-2011, while clashes between pro- and anti-government forces and outbreaks of inter-communal fighting have plagued Darfur and West Kordofan. Impacts Ongoing conflict will dash hopes of Sudan's removal from the US State Sponsors of Terrorism list. Reports about fighting and atrocities in areas to which the government restricts access will further strain relations with the West. Khartoum will continue to pressure Juba against providing support to any rebel groups in Sudan. The government will step up its call that AU-UN peacekeepers withdraw from Darfur.

Freight group behavior under freight traffic restriction policy

2017 ◽  
Vol 117 (10) ◽  
pp. 2287-2304 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haoxiong Yang ◽  
Lijun Sun ◽  
Shulin Lan ◽  
Chen Yang
Keyword(s):  
Distribution System ◽  
Traffic Congestion ◽  
Influence Factor ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Group Behavior ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Freight Traffic ◽  
Restriction Policy ◽  
The Government

Purpose Many cities implement freight traffic restriction policy (FTRP) intending to reduce traffic congestion and air pollution. At the same time, city distribution had some negative effects. The purpose of this paper is therefore to study the freight group behavior under FTRP, and to provide some recommendations for the government. Design/methodology/approach This paper establishes a city distribution system model built by a simulation method of Agent, which includes the complex adaptability of freight individual, event of restriction policy, the influence factor of freight group behavior and its changes from the perspective of restriction policy. The rules of microscopic freight group behavior to macroscopic freight group behavior, the effects on freight group behavior exerted by restriction policy and the dynamic mechanism of freight group behavior are all studied. The model is also simulated with the traffic data of Beijing in China. Findings Theoretical results ensure that restriction of the passport is not the sole reason that may produce illegal trucks, and other measures need to be taken to solve the traffic problems. And in the long run, increasing fines has a greater effect than strengthening supervision frequency on illegal trucks reduction. Originality/value From city distribution perspective, this paper studied freight group behavior under FTRP. This paper also applied the Agent modeling method to build a model of urban distribution system in the FTRP.

India is poised for fintech boom

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Transaction Costs ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Ease Of Use ◽  
Light Touch ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Income Population ◽  
The Government ◽  
Set Up

Significance Registering compound growth of 23% per year, the value of its fintech market is expected to reach USD6.2tn by 2025 from USD1.9tn in 2019, according to industry estimates. There are over 2,100 fintechs in the country, two-thirds of which were set up in the last five years. Due to India’s vast unbanked population, the government favours light-touch regulation. Impacts Demand for cybersecurity services for fintechs will rise. Lower transaction costs and ease of use will make fintechs attractive to India’s low-income population. Fintechs face high risk of delinquency and fraud.

UK corruption scandal opens door for the opposition

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Reputation ◽  
Trade War ◽  
The Government ◽  
Spending Cuts ◽  
The Eu

Significance These scandals are serious for the government because they reflect poorly on dozens of Conservative MPs as well as Prime Minister Boris Johnson. In addition to undermining the government’s public support, they have also damaged Johnson’s support among party colleagues. Impacts Anger towards the government could grow in poorer regions as tax rises and spending cuts are gradually introduced. The persistence of corruption stories threatens to further damage the United Kingdom’s international reputation. Domestic pressures and ‘Brexit fatigue’ may ultimately prevent London from triggering a trade war with the EU.

The 2019 budget law may increase Italy-EU tensions

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Premiums ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
Cost Cutting ◽  
The Government

Significance Finance Minister Giovanni Tria is aiming to implement gradually the government programme, funded by both deficit and cost-cutting measures within the limits allowed by EU treaties. Meanwhile, the two coalition parties are calling for more fiscal room to implement their flagship promises. Impacts The government could increase its deficit targets to 1.9% and 1.6% of GDP in 2018 and 2019, respectively. Italian assets will remain volatile with high risk premiums until the government clarifies its position on public finances. In case of a new government, an M5S-Democratic Party coalition seems the most politically achievable, although perhaps not the most viable. If fresh elections are called, they will be held in early 2019 at the earliest.

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