The 2019 budget law may increase Italy-EU tensions

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Premiums ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
Cost Cutting ◽  
The Government

Significance Finance Minister Giovanni Tria is aiming to implement gradually the government programme, funded by both deficit and cost-cutting measures within the limits allowed by EU treaties. Meanwhile, the two coalition parties are calling for more fiscal room to implement their flagship promises. Impacts The government could increase its deficit targets to 1.9% and 1.6% of GDP in 2018 and 2019, respectively. Italian assets will remain volatile with high risk premiums until the government clarifies its position on public finances. In case of a new government, an M5S-Democratic Party coalition seems the most politically achievable, although perhaps not the most viable. If fresh elections are called, they will be held in early 2019 at the earliest.

Burundi's security outlook will remain fragile

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Infrastructure Investments ◽  
The Government

Significance The government denounced the attacks as acts of terrorism and claimed to have killed one assailant and arrested five others. However, no information has been released on the alleged perpetrators and no group has claimed responsibility. Impacts Although growth is recovering slightly, the government is unlikely to meet its (already modest) 2021/22 budgetary targets. To boost the economy, the president desperately needs the kind of stimulus that infrastructure investments can provide. Though official case numbers are low, a slow vaccine rollout means Burundi will remain at high risk of further COVID-19-related disruptions.

The South African public service wage bill deadlock in 2021: living on the edge

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Marianne Matthee ◽  
Albert Wöcke
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Learning Outcomes ◽  
South African ◽  
Public Service ◽  
Subject Area ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Academic Level ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
The Government

Subject area Macro-Economics. Study level/applicability Undergraduate and MBA. Case overview The COVID 19 pandemic-related restrictions devastated South Africa’s economy in 2020 and although the restrictions were generally less damaging than in 2020, the government had to budget for vaccinations and rebuild the economy. Public service unions had just announced that they were demanding an increase of 4% above inflation for their members and that they were preparing for a strike. They were bitter about the fact that the South African Government had withdrawn from the last year of a three-year wage agreement in February 2020 and their members had not received an increase for the two years. These demands and Finance Minister Mboweni’s response to them had to consider the structural and cyclical impact on the fiscus and economy. Expected learning outcomes The learning outcomes are as follows: understand the general objectives of fiscal policy and stakeholders’ interests; understand the tradeoffs in fiscal policy and the implications of taking a position; and make recommendations based on reasoned judgements about those recommendations. Complexity academic level Undergraduate and MBA level courses on Macro Economics. Supplementary materials Teaching notes are available for educators only. Subject code CSS 10: Public Sector Management.

Algeria aims to put its finances on a sustainable path

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Income Tax ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Policy Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Investment Law ◽  
Subsidy Reform

Significance The prime minister and finance minister, Aymane Benabderrahmane, has loaded some substantive policy reforms into the 2022 budget law, including a provision for reform of the subsidy system, revisions to the investment law and changes to income tax. Impacts There is a high risk that within the next five years there will be a slump in oil and gas prices. Algeria’s heavy reliance on hydrocarbons makes it particularly vulnerable once momentum builds up for global decarbonisation. Subsidy reform will entail price increases, even if they are gradually applied.

Slovenia will remain polarised, whatever Jansa’s fate

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
European Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Council Presidency ◽  
The Eu

Significance The government led by the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) is under mounting pressure as Slovenia prepares to take over the European Council presidency. This is due mainly to hostility in parliament and society to Prime Minister Janez Jansa, who promotes a popular but divisive form of national conservatism. Impacts A successful no-confidence vote in the government followed by early elections would complicate Slovenia’s handling of its EU presidency. The fall of the current government and its replacement by the centre-left would improve Slovenia’s relations with the EU and United States. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban would lose an ally at EU level if Jansa lost office.

Trade war with rebels reduces Ukraine's options

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Power Stations ◽  
Freight Traffic ◽  
Anthracite Coal ◽  
Trade War ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Warfare

Significance The rebel takeover of Ukrainian-owned businesses is a response to Kyiv's decision yesterday to halt freight traffic to and from the region, as economic warfare temporarily takes precedence over armed conflict. Kyiv's trade ban in effect institutionalises a railway blockade that has interrupted Ukraine's coal supplies since January and was opposed until now by the government. Impacts If the government hopes to use the trade ban as a negotiating tool to pressure the rebels, it is a high-risk strategy liable to backfire. A step intended to show strength makes the government look weak and invites opposition pressure, including calls for early elections. Kyiv must urgently find new suppliers of the anthracite coal on which half its power stations run.

Power crisis to hamper Zambia development prospects

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Tax Avoidance ◽  
Hydroelectric Power ◽  
Fuel Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Growth Environment ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
Price Hike ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
The Government

Subject Outlook for Zambia's economy. Significance Finance Minister Alexander Chikwanda last month presented revisions to the 2015 budget. They reflected the cooling growth environment, lower-than-expected tax revenues and rising borrowing costs. Droughts have exacerbated these vulnerabilities by pressuring Zambia's hydroelectric power supplies. Economic prospects are weakened ahead of elections scheduled for September 2016. Impacts Riots that took place in the main tourist hub Livingstone over the fuel price hike could hit visitor numbers if repeated. Revenue woes will harden the government's stance on tax avoidance, raising tensions with miners. The government may use the Sustainable Development Goals summit to press for greater donor aid, citing its revenue crunch.

Fiscal adjustment may prove painful in Uruguay

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Union ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
High Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
Economic Climate ◽  
The Government ◽  
First Time ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Uruguay's economic outlook. Significance The government has determined a fiscal adjustment, with tax increases for middle- and high-income earners, delays in public spending plans and a reform of military pensions, in a bid to address worsening public finances. It is the first time that the leftist Frente Amplio (FA), in government since 2005, has faced an adverse economic climate. Impacts Austerity in a context of 'stagflation' will generate political and trade union tensions. Rising unemployment will drive a deterioration in real family incomes. Growth will remain paltry this year and next.

Zimbabwe faces uphill task normalising donor relations

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
External Debt ◽  
Job Creation ◽  
Development Plan ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
Donor Relations ◽  
Labour Costs ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Zimbabwe economic outlook. Significance On November 26 Finance Minister Patrick Chinamasa presented the 2016 budget articulating the government's IMF-backed plan to clear the backlog of external debt arrears to international creditors. The aim is to normalise relations with Western donors after 15 years of isolation. The government faces a deepening employment crisis, an unfunded development plan and deflationary risks. Impacts The Labour Amendment Bill adopted in August will raise labour costs and discourage job creation. Some deals signed during Xi's visit such as funding for fibre optic broadband may improve long-term competitiveness. However, others such as an agreement for a new Chinese-built parliament will add to the debt load.

Rising living costs will hasten ‘high streets’ decline

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
New Technologies ◽  
Public Confidence ◽  
Retail Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Cost Cutting ◽  
Urban Decay ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Uk

Subject Retail sector woes. Significance The trend towards online shopping is progressing fast in the advanced economies at the same time as rising housing, transport, health and utility costs are squeezing incomes and adding to the decline of traditional retailing. Sharply weaker UK consumer spending is putting yet more pressure on retailers’ profit margins, forcing rapid cost cutting, restructuring and the widespread closure of less viable outlets. Job losses and vacant retail premises are rising; the latter adding to urban decay in the worst affected areas. Impacts Retailing job losses dominate headlines but shop closures will have a larger and more pernicious impact on economic and social conditions. If UK regeneration efforts gain momentum and boost the budget and the government popularity, other regions could follow the UK template. Action needs to be taken to find urban redevelopment solutions and to boost public confidence in the positive effects of new technologies.

Gabon's president will consolidate his power

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Term Limits ◽  
African Union ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Slow Progress ◽  
The Government

Subject Gabonese constitutional controversy Significance The Gabonese parliament and senate, dominated by the ruling Gabonese Democratic Party (PDG), unanimously passed a revised constitution on January 10. The new constitution will reportedly not include term limits, while providing President Ali Bongo with immunity from future prosecution. The opposition, led by former African Union (AU) Commission Chairperson Jean Ping, has rejected the document and described it as a setback for democracy. Impacts The legislative elections could face a fourth postponement given the slow progress in poll preparations. The government could enter the Eurobond market once more after raising 200 million dollars in an oversubscribed August issue. Bongo's administration will likely prioritise domestic over external debtors as part of a broader plan to stimulate the economy.

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