Iceland’s snap election outcome will raise uncertainty

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Election Outcome ◽  
The Political ◽  
Green Movement ◽  
Political Fragmentation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Key Issues ◽  
Political Spectrum ◽  
Number Of Parties

Significance The political landscape is now even more fractured than before, with the number of parties entering parliament increasing from the traditional four or five, to eight. Impacts Increased political fragmentation calls for broader coalitions and greater cooperation across the political spectrum. No three-party coalition is possible unless the Left-Green Movement and the Independence Party both participate, which appears unlikely. The revelations of the Panama Papers, which catapulted the last government out of office, appear to have lost significance. The political focus has turned to taxation and economic growth, which will be key issues for the next government. The pro-EU parties are probably not strong enough to demand a membership referendum.

Ecuador’s Lasso weathers early storm but clouds loom

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Tax Reform ◽  
The Political ◽  
Tax Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Downward Pressure ◽  
New Challenges ◽  
International Investors

Significance He appears to have weathered this early political storm, achieving notable successes in areas such as tax reform. However, the political outlook remains uncertain, with a likely COVID-19 resurgence heralding new challenges in 2022. Impacts Containing the spread of the Omicron variant will be a priority for Lasso in the coming months. A pandemic resurgence would place downward pressure on economic growth and tax collection. Tax reforms will please international investors and support efforts to attract foreign direct investment to stimulate economic activity.

Pandemic may drive new wealth taxes in Latin America

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Social Welfare ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Latin Americans ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
Wealth Tax ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Spectrum ◽  
Tax Cuts

Significance The region’s current tax and spending policies redistribute very little. The COVID-19 pandemic brought a deep and persistent recession, despite new spending, tax cuts and monetary easing aimed at limiting the damage. In December, the government of Argentina, which was particularly hard hit, passed a temporary (and additional) net wealth tax on the very richest households. Impacts OECD-led transparency efforts offer the long-sought possibility of taxing the foreign assets of wealthy Latin Americans. The pandemic will increase both existing inequalities and the need for tax revenues to finance social welfare and stimulus spending. Efforts to strengthen tax collection more broadly will likely be undertaken by governments across the political spectrum.

Prospects for Turkey in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Regional Economies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Justice And Development Party ◽  
Global Liquidity

Subject Prospects for Turkey in 2016. Significance This month's decisive electoral victory for the Justice and Development Party (AKP) has re-established President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's grip over the political landscape. In the economy, another challenging year lies ahead, wıth global liquidity tightening under way and European and regional economies still weak.

Denmark's weak new government faces complex alliances

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Political Strategy ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Spectrum ◽  
The Right

Significance The new government will have only 34 of the 179 seats, because policy differences among the right-wing parties, and the political strategy of the electorally strengthened anti-immigration, Euro-sceptic Danish People's Party (DF), mean DF will remain outside. Policy-making will be difficult. The government will be more economically liberal and pro-EU than it would have been with DF, but to make policy it will rely on partners across the political spectrum, especially the ousted Social Democrats -- who remain the largest party -- and DF. Impacts If DF is seen as a welfarist protector of ordinary citizens, it is more likely to repeat, at least, its 22% vote in the next election. The much-tighter immigration regime which is in prospect could taint Denmark's image and make it less attractive to foreign investment. The new government is likely to be an ally for much of UK Prime Minister David Cameron's EU reform agenda.

Russian dominance limits Eurasian bloc's prospects

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
The Political ◽  
Trade Barriers ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Action ◽  
Russian Military

Significance Two years on from its founding in 2015, the EEU has not created the expected boom in trade among member states, and is hampered by internal disagreements and persistent trade barriers. A new customs agreement has yet to be signed by Belarus. Impacts Modest economic growth in Russia will dampen growth rates across the EEU. Tajikistan and Azerbaijan will weigh the political benefits of membership against the EEU’s unimpressive results. Further Russian military action against Ukraine or Georgia would weaken Kazakh and Belarusian support for the EEU.

Political restructuring is on the way in Brazil

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
General Election ◽  
The Political ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Protest Movements ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
President Elect

Subject Changes to the political landscape. Significance This year’s general election has transformed the political landscape that prevailed for over two decades in Brazil. The centre-right Social Democrats (PSDB) were pushed away from the mainstream by a surging far-right led by President-elect Jair Bolsonaro. After winning four straight presidential elections, the Workers’ Party (PT) was defeated in the runoff. It retains some leverage, but now faces increasingly serious challenges to its hegemony on the centre-left. Impacts Ineffective management of relations with Congress could undermine Bolsonaro’s ability to pass key legislation. Protest movements not aligned to established parties could proliferate in the coming years. Bolsonaro’s Social Liberal Party (PSL) will fail to establish itself as a leading party in the longer term.

Economic growth will boost Portugal’s government

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Political System ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
The Political ◽  
Turn Of The Millennium ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mediterranean Countries ◽  
The Eu

Significance Portugal is set for the best five-year period of growth since the turn of the millennium, unemployment is falling and public finances are showing positive signs. The upswing is reflected in the remarkable stability of the political system. Impacts The economic recovery is likely to drive down yields on government bonds. Centeno’s appointment as Eurogroup president will raise Portugal’s standing in the EU. Security concerns in many Mediterranean countries are likely to boost Portugal’s tourism industry.

Urbanisation will rise as birth rate declines in Peru

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Birth Control ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
High Growth ◽  
The Political ◽  
Water Shortages ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Population Concentration ◽  
Construction Activity

Subject Results of the 2017 census. Significance Peru’s population growth has slowed markedly over the last ten years according to the latest census, reflecting growing urbanisation, changes in social structure and lifestyles, and the increased availability of methods of birth control. Years of high growth rates appear to underscore the expansion of a substantial urban middle class, while Peru is also enjoying a decline in the ratio between workers and the dependent population. Impacts Increasingly urban populations will benefit companies providing goods and services, whether imported or not. Construction activity will hinge around economic growth and its geographical distribution. Population concentration will reduce the political weight of rural constituencies. Peru’s cities will remain highly vulnerable to water shortages.

Pensions problems will await Chile's new government

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Movement ◽  
Pension System ◽  
Family Members ◽  
State System ◽  
Private Pension ◽  
The Political ◽  
Private Pensions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Active Population ◽  
Political Spectrum

Subject The private pensions system. Significance Chile’s private pension system, once regarded internationally as a model to be imitated, has become a cause of widespread dissatisfaction at home. One important social movement is calling for a return to a state-managed pay-as-you-go system. There is consensus across the political spectrum that changes are required but intense disagreement as to the form they should take. Impacts Low pensions are increasingly affecting the active population through the economic difficulties of older family members. Without reform, the popular call of 'no more money for the AFPs' will continue to find an echo. The AFP-friendly attitude of the likely next centre-right government would increase demand for a return to a state system.

China COVID-19 outbreak will weaken Xi

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Services ◽  
State Security ◽  
Political Impact ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Intense Activity

Subject The political impact of the coronavirus outbreak in China. Significance The extreme measures the Communist Party has taken in response to the COVID-19 outbreak are partly designed to instill faith in its governing capacity among ordinary citizens, but inertia and slow decision-making at every level have revealed a gap between official rhetoric and reality. Impacts China will increasingly treat public health as a matter of state security; regulation and more involvement by senior officials will follow. The main risk to political stability is indirect, via the outbreak’s negative effect economic growth and employment. Despite signs of public outrage, protests are unlikely due to the risk of contamination and intense activity by the security services.

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