Government incompetence risks major unrest in Romania

Subject The old guard’s resistance to reform. Significance The Social Democratic Party (PSD) and its junior partner, the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats (ALDE), have a parliamentary majority but have so far been unable to impose their will. European-minded citizens’ pro-reform agenda is being sustained in the public service and civic and commercial spheres, but is politically fragmented. Impacts Moves to bring the justice system to heel are likely to sharpen criticism from the EU. Vital reforms will be postponed or diluted because of disorder within the political elite and a poor-quality government team. Power struggles will deepen Romania’s peripheral EU status and prevent it responding energetically to domestic and regional challenges.

Subject Public life after local elections. Significance Expectations that public life might get an overdue reform boost have been dashed. The Social Democratic Party (PSD), direct heir of the pre-1989 ruling communists, has enjoyed a major comeback. Having been driven from office by popular anger in 2015, the PSD won a convincing nationwide victory in local elections held in June. With parliamentary elections due by December, the party is now poised to have a central role in shaping Romania's direction. Impacts Restoring political control over the justice system will stimulate corruption which continues to be endemic. Voters are largely pro-Western but demobilised. The economy will suffer as parliament passes pre-election acts that will widen the fiscal deficit.


Significance Romania has one of the highest levels of any EU state of dissatisfaction with the performance of its democracy. Yet in the upcoming elections, voters look likely to give a strong mandate to the Social Democratic Party (PSD), the chief architect of the political system that has prevailed since 1989. Impacts A PSD government may move cautiously for fear of provoking a popular reaction. The independence of the justice system will depend on the vigilance shown by Brussels. A long-delayed shake-up leading to a more coherent pro-reform party now appears likely. The extent of political renewal will depend on the extent to which the large diaspora engages in national affairs.


2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (6/7) ◽  
pp. 713-729 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paolo Ricci ◽  
Pietro Pavone

PurposeThe paper aims to reach a better understanding of accountability and social reporting in the Italian justice system, by examining the state of the art of both literature and practice. The case study highlights the critical elements in drawing up the social report of one of the most important Prosecutor Offices in Italy.Design/methodology/approachThe case study analyzes the activities of the actors involved in the report building process by detailing all the steps involved in a research diary, in order to examine such process from the inside, thus reversing its perspective.FindingsThe study shows that both the lack of guidelines for judicial administrations and a consolidated trend of transforming administrative facts into documents useful to stakeholders slow down the evolution of practices, which are stuck in a perpetual trial stage.Research limitations/implicationsThe limitations are mainly related to the adoption of a single case study, which does not include any comparison with other reporting experiences in the justice sector.Originality/valueThis paper adds evidence to the theoretical debate on social reporting in the justice sector which has so far received the attention of a limited number of scholars. Furthermore, unlike other studies focusing exclusively on the final report while overlooking the process that turns input into output, this research deals with the core of the social reporting process and practices in their development, capturing their most intimate and controversial aspects from the inside.


Subject Kyrgyzstan's constitutional referendum. Significance Now that President Almazbek Atambayev has secured the constitutional changes he wanted, it is unclear how he benefits. The December 11 referendum was a success in its own terms despite the dearth of public understanding of the issues, but was accompanied by an acrimonious divorce between the ruling Social Democratic Party and its long-term coalition partner, Ata-Meken. Impacts A weaker government and divided parliament will struggle to focus on chronic and serious economic problems. The Social Democrats are in a stronger position nationwide thanks to their strong showing in simultaneous local elections. Kyrgyz nationalist and conservative groups will feel emboldened as some of the amendments are seen as concessions to them.


Significance The motion will be backed by his former coalition partner, the Union to Save Romania (USR), together with the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the nationalist AUR. Citu recently won the National Liberal Party (PNL) leadership contest. If the no-confidence vote succeeds, as seems likely, President Klaus Iohannis can make two attempts to form a new government. Impacts Romania has Europe’s second-lowest COVID-19 vaccination rate; administrative upheaval may worsen performance further. The main political institutions are fast losing credibility, and this is likely to benefit increasingly influential extreme nationalists. A PNL minority government would prioritise survival over serious reform during its remaining time in power.


Subject Kyrgyzstan's parliamentary elections. Significance Parliamentary elections held on October 4 resulted in victory for the Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (SDPK), which is aligned with President Almazbek Atambayev. Overall, the poll ended with a strong showing for pro-Russian parties, while the nationalist opposition, split into two competing coalitions (Respublika-Ata Jurt and Butun Kyrgyzstan-Emgek) faired relatively poorly. Impacts The results have provided the president with a chance of building a more coherent majority in parliament. Coalition-building should be easier than in recent past and thus governability should be enhanced. The strong performance of the SDPK and the Kyrgyzstan Party plays into the hands of Russia.


Subject Political outlook. Significance Scheduled parliamentary elections take place on November 8. Opinion polls point to a slim victory for the opposition Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), the gap with the ruling Social Democratic Party (SDP) having narrowed. A shift in power does not herald any significant change in either the government's effectiveness or policy direction. Like its predecessor, an HDZ-led administration would be weak and beholden to an angry public's whims. Impacts HDZ's lead in the polling has fallen lately, but politics will turn nationalist whoever wins the election. Croatia is on a journey towards Hungarian-style economic nationalism and a more sceptical approach towards the EU. Support is likely to increase for Bosnian Croat attempts to form a third Bosnian entity, contributing to the steady collapse of BiH.


2008 ◽  
Vol 41 (4) ◽  
pp. 521-540 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paula M. Pickering ◽  
Mark Baskin

Croatia’s complex and violent transition contributed to conditions under which ex-communists have exerted significant influence over multiple post-Communist parties. In the 1990s, the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) led by President Franjo Tudjman employed war to impose a semi-authoritarian system that further weakened the electoral prospects of the most logical Communist successor party—the Social Democratic Party (SDP). The SDP-led coalition’s win in the 2000 elections ushered in conditions that enabled a deeper democratization in Croatia that brought it closer toward integration into the EU. HDZ’s loss in 2000 and EU leverage then helped compel HDZ to reform and to continue work toward meeting EU accession requirements.


Significance Social Democratic Party (PSD) leader Liviu Dragnea’s response that the protests are part of an attempted coup suggests he will not compromise. Within the new ruling coalition, there is strong support for the PSD to get a grip on the justice system and insulate politicians from legal sanctions. Impacts The PSD’s proprietorial attitude to the state will bring back impunity for runaway corruption. The lack of restraining figures within the PSD and opposition weakness increases the risk of street-level unrest. An attempt to impeach President Klaus Iohannis cannot be ruled out. PSD radicalism may accelerate attempts to build a more effective political opposition.


Significance Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) will once again govern in a grand coalition with the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the CDU’s Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU). Impacts Regional elections in Hesse and Bavaria at the end of 2018 will be the first tests for the grand coalition. The AfD will continue to grow in the short term, but incompetence may restrict its growth potential. The Green Party could emerge as a viable left-of-centre alternative to the SPD. Merkel’s electoral mishap diminishes her standing in the EU and could embolden countries opposed to French-German reform efforts. Domestically, euro-area reform could be hindered if dissent spills over from the AfD into the more conservative ranks of the CDU/CSU.


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