Delhi’s arbitration policy may hit foreign investment

Subject India's policies on domestic and international arbitration. Significance The proposed Indian Arbitration Council Act seeks to institutionalise domestic arbitration procedures and make the country a centre for international arbitration practice. Delhi is seeking to protect its state agencies from future accountability before international arbitration courts. Impacts Accusations of partiality against India’s judiciary are likely to increase. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will appeal to foreign investors despite the legal risks they face in India. India’s reputation for ease of doing business is likely to improve only gradually.

Subject Legal risks to investment in Indonesia. Significance The South Jakarta District Court in late November ordered US investment banking group Goldman Sachs to pay 24 million dollars in damages to property developer Benny Tjokrosaputro. He had sued Goldman Sachs in September 2016, claiming that it had sold shares which he rightfully owned. Foreign investors will be increasingly wary of Indonesia's legal system. Impacts Investors will be increasingly sceptical of Jakarta's new business task force, though it is designed to support them. Jakarta will step up efforts to encourage foreign investment in infrastructure, despite falling confidence. Increases in state spending may raise corruption relating to the distribution of funds in Indonesia.


Subject Sudan's new cabinet. Significance The prime minister has appointed a new unity government, in accordance with a disputed 'national dialogue' framework completed last year. For the past five years, Sudan has been facing the combined economic pressures of budget cuts, reduced foreign investment, a weakening currency and rising inflation. The former government pushed through some subsidy cuts, despite public protests over the ensuing economic hardship. In January, Washington announced a lifting of economic sanctions on Sudan, raising Khartoum's hopes that it will become easier to attract foreign investment. Impacts Gulf institutions will provide new financing for energy and infrastructure projects. Mining and agriculture opportunities in the north and centre of the country could also attract some new investment. However, major Western companies will remain wary of doing business in Sudan.


Significance Prime Minister Guido Bellido’s threat to nationalise Camisea has further stirred debate at the heart of government, this time about implementing a campaign pledge to this end, notwithstanding the government’s professed aim to create a secure environment for foreign investment. Bellido’s announcement did not have the backing of the cabinet as a whole. Impacts Bellido’s position will suffer if he is seen to backtrack on a key issue contained in Peru Libre’s manifesto. Polarised disagreements within the cabinet will persist. Castillo’s position will suffer from the lack of clear leadership.


2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 515-537 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khee Giap Tan ◽  
Mulya Amri ◽  
Nurina Merdikawati

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel framework to measure ease of doing business (EDB) that undertakes a holistic approach incorporating three distinct environments: attractiveness to investors, business friendliness, and competitive policies (ABC). This is offered as an alternative to existing popular indicators of doing business (DB), allowing for better approximation of investment and economic growth at the sub-national level. Design/methodology/approach The proposed “EDB Index ABC” aggregates 74 indicators into five sub-environments, three environments, and ultimately into the overall EDB Index ABC. Values are standardised using the standardised score method. The framework is applied to 33 Indonesian provinces using a combination of primary data from surveying the business community and government departments as well as secondary data from formal government statistics. Findings The findings suggest a positive association between the proposed EDB Index ABC and competitiveness as well as investments into Indonesian provinces. In terms of explanatory power, attractiveness to investors and business friendliness seem to be stronger and more consistent, while the role of competitive policies is more ambiguous. Originality/value This research departs significantly from conventional approaches to the study of DB that tend to overwhelmingly focus on formal regulatory aspects by including macroeconomic factors such as market potential and infrastructure resilience as well as micro-level variables such as profitability and cost effectiveness, and the role of government in managing competition. Responding to calls for a bottom-up approach in understanding the EDB, the EDB Index ABC is applied to 33 Indonesian provinces.


Subject E-commerce in India. Significance Following nationwide protests from small traders in late 2014, key sections of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government have demanded that Prime Minister Narendra Modi act against India's rapidly growing e-commerce platforms. Particular targets are the largest e-commerce players, mostly Indian, but including Amazon India, which have benefitted from large infusions of foreign capital and stand accused of side-stepping India's strict limits on foreign investment in multi-brand retail. Impacts Any improvement in transport and distribution infrastructure will boost e-commerce. Proliferation of mobile and banking facilities is key to expanding online retail. Small traders will oppose the expansion of e-commerce, causing greater political losses for the BJP than any other party.


Significance The World Bank’s 2017 Ease of Doing Business ranking shows Tanzania improving, moving up to 132nd place from 144 last year. However, an austerity drive and a crackdown on tax evasion may undermine progress. Businesses have shuttered since President John Magufuli took office, and commercial retrenchment could dampen key growth sectors including construction, telecoms and financial services. Impacts A fast-growing population of 53 million will add to an already large consumer base. A sharp drop in tourism revenue could prompt a review of taxation on the sector. Natural gas discoveries could boost revenue, but exports will only begin in the next decade.


Subject Media censorship in India. Significance The media represents one of the fastest-growing sectors of the Indian economy and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has striven to increase foreign direct investment (FDI) from the estimated 4.3 billion dollars in 2016 and 4.0 billion dollars in 2015. Yet potential investors may be wary of the difficult political climate currently surrounding the industry, as indicated by the recent case of NDTV, whose Hindi-language service was threatened with a 24-hour ban by the broadcasting authorities. Impacts Prospective foreign investors risk becoming involved in legal battles over freedom of speech. Firms advertising on television and in print could be affected by such battles. Media freedoms will be tested at both the regional and central level.


Subject The sale of the Erdenet mine. Significance The day before parliamentary elections in June last year, Prime Minister Saikhanbileg Chimed announced the sale of 49% of shares held by the Russian government in the Erdenet Mining Corporation and the Mongolrostsvetmet mining company to Mongolia Copper Corporation, an unknown private Mongolian company. Subsequent parliamentary inquiry concluded that the sale was unconstitutional and the government ordered the shares transferred to the state on February 16 this year. The government’s actions received wide public support while polls reveal that the electorate views corruption as the main obstacle to Mongolia’s development Impacts Talk of 'nationalisation' in the Western media threatens to derail Mongolia's efforts to fix its image and attract foreign investors. The unusual circumstances of the sale raise suspicions of corruption and collusion between Mongolia's previous government and largest bank. The new government's will to scrutinise sale demonstrates the strength of Mongolia’s democracy.


Subject Nigeria's 2020 budget. Significance President Muhammadu Buhari on October 8 proposed a 10.3-trillion-naira (28.4-billion-dollar) budget for 2020. The budget plans to increase spending on much-needed infrastructure, while deficit financing trends also look set to continue with a proposed 2.18-trillion-naira deficit. However, the proposed budget is plagued by the same challenges that have crippled previous Buhari plans, namely overly optimistic revenue expectations. Impacts A curtailing of infrastructure spending, combined with the high interest rate environment, will likely limit the economy's growth potential. Increased compliance costs could hurt an already diminished investment reputation and future World Bank ‘ease of doing business’ rankings. An easier relationship between the presidency and the national assembly should see the budget passed without the major delays of past years.


Significance The military leadership has seized control of the political process, but has shown little interest in assuming formal power, often demonstrating sympathies with protesters while preserving the constitutional order. Impacts The prime minister and interim president may be pushed to quit as a concession. Elections planned for July 4 may be postponed if unrest grows. The economy may suffer as tourism will decline and foreign investors will hesitate to become involved in an uncertain energy sector.


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