Ethiopia’s Tigray crisis puts privatisations at risk

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
International Aid ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
High Current ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Current Account Deficits ◽  
Double Digit

Significance However, amid ongoing conflict in Tigray and considerable political uncertainty around the upcoming elections, the outcome may be disappointing. Impacts Despite improving FDI and some debt relief, forex reserves will likely remain depressed due to persistently high current account deficits. International aid suspended due to the Tigray conflict may not be released until the second half of the year. Economic recovery should become more noticeable from early 2022, but double-digit growth rates will remain a thing of the past.

Turkish lira faces fragility despite AKP victory

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Significant Proportion ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
The Past ◽  
Current Account Deficits ◽  
One Year ◽  
Turkish Lira

Significance However, serious concerns remain about the credibility of Turkey's Central Bank (CBRT), whose refusal to mount an interest rate defence of the lira accentuates the risks posed by Turkish banks' large dollar-denominated debts, a significant proportion of which fall due within one year. Impacts Sentiment towards EMs has improved noticeably over the past month, with EM equities 5% up, despite indications of a December Fed rate rise. EM current account deficits are now less of a concern for investors, partly because they have narrowed since 2013. Markets are also now more concerned about China and the lack of growth. EM public-sector balance sheets have become significantly stronger since the late 1990s. The marked increase in the private sector's external indebtedness is now the key source of vulnerability for EMs.

West Africa move against militants poses blowback risk

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Aid ◽  
The United States ◽  
Border Region ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Warm Up ◽  
The Past ◽  
North East ◽  
Border Areas ◽  
Training Exercises

Significance Mass protests took place yesterday in Niger's capital against the insurgency, while Chad's military announced training exercises with the United States to "warm up" for the fight. Over the past year, Boko Haram militants have encroached from north-east Nigeria into remote border areas of Cameroon, Chad and Niger. The regionalisation of the insurgency and the response will see the intensity and impact of the conflict increase. Impacts Population displacements could become a significant problem, bringing added instability risks to the border region. The risk of attacks on international aid organisation personnel will grow as they seek to deliver aid to affected communities. The conflict will not yet impinge on oil operations in Chad and Niger; existing fields and infrastructure are not close to affected areas.

UK voters will ignore budget and elect hung parliament

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Economic ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Political Event ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Deficit Reduction

Significance The budget will prove to be all but the last political event before the final campaign and the May 7 general election. Although the detail had to be determined in cooperation with the Liberal Democrats, Osborne's package was an unashamed pitch for a Conservative term of office. The crucial contest at the election will be the government's claim to have delivered on economic recovery and deficit reduction over the past five years, versus the Labour Party's assertion that its own preferred route to budgetary stability is better balanced and more socially acceptable. Impacts The link, if any, between the economy and politics is uncertain: the Conservatives won in 1992 (recession) but lost in 1997 (boom). The United Kingdom has experienced a 'voteless recovery' -- a huge move from pessimism to optimism, with no benefit for the Conservatives. Benign international economic conditions (notably the sharp fall in global oil prices) have boosted growth for 2015. This shift could be easily reversed if oil prices were to return to 2012-14 levels. Assumptions that the 'age of austerity' is over and the budget will achieve balance in the next parliament are very premature.

Iraqi Kurds’ economic recovery will be limited

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Federal Government ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The economic outlook for Iraq’s Kurdish region. Significance The Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) has seen a limited economic recovery over the past year. It suffered catastrophically following the central government's imposition of sanctions following the region’s abortive 2017 independence bid. Impacts A likely larger federal government allocation to the KRI in the 2019/20 budget will facilitate economic recovery. Increased US pressure to boost Iraqi oil exports to Turkey will increase local government revenues. As both local and federal government revenues depend on oil, falling prices would cause another contraction.

Belize’s economic recovery will lose steam

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
International Reserves ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Hydropower Generation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Primary Surplus

Subject The Belize economy. Significance Belize’s economic recovery is stagnating following a severe drought that has had a harsh impact on agriculture and hydropower generation. The situation has been compounded by a slowdown in tourist arrivals following years of buoyant growth, reflecting weaker global expansion and the grounding of Boeing 737 MAX aircraft, which service the country. Impacts The current account deficit will remain large, with international reserves averaging just three months of imports. The primary surplus will narrow due to increasing spending on wages and public investment and weaker-than-expected revenue. This being an election year, cuts to current expenditures will probably be off the table, limiting debt reduction in the short term. Funding constraints will hit the government’s ability to pursue much-needed reforms in infrastructure and education.

Stabilisation initiatives will falter in Iraq

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Aid ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Conflict Zones ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Middle East Conflict ◽  
Military Campaigns ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group ◽  
Military Campaign

Significance These operations follow the recapture of Tikrit, Sinjar, Ramadi and Fallujah from Islamic State group (ISG) in the past 18 months. Western countries backing the government and supporting its military campaign have pledged to increase their support for initiatives to stabilise recaptured areas. However, these initiatives have significant drawbacks that limit their prospects of success. Impacts Western criticism of Baghdad's military campaigns and anti-ISG strategy will remain muted. International aid organisations will be at risk of attack. Absent meaningful reconciliation, ISG will drive new terrorist attacks in Iraq, other Middle East conflict zones and the West.

Prospects for Turkey in the third quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Regional Economic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Minority Government ◽  
Electoral Defeat ◽  
Kurdish Issue

Subject Prospects for Turkey in the third quarter. Significance The third quarter will be a time of political uncertainty, if not instability. The first electoral defeat for the Justice and Development Party (AKP) has shifted the balance of power. AKP is 18 seats short of a majority and rifts between all four parliamentary parties make coalition-forming difficult. Three issues will probably dominate: the various configurations for a coalition or minority government; the Kurdish issue; and the prospect of early elections. Political uncertainty will add to obstacles slowing economic recovery, already hampered by global and regional economic conditions.

Ecuador banking sector is set for a comeback

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Foreign Banks ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Loan Growth ◽  
Double Digit

Subject Banking sector prospects. Significance Private sector banks in Ecuador enjoyed strong double-digit loan growth last year -- a reflection of the troubled economy’s gradual emergence from recession. That economic recovery, and the pragmatic willingness of President Lenin Moreno to work with the private sector, is generating optimism regarding the prospects of the country’s banking sector. Impacts Strong bank lending is key for economic recovery, allowing firms to increase investments and consumers to spend more. Taking the E-money system from the central bank shows Moreno’s pragmatism vis-a-vis the private sector. The planned sale of state-owned lender Banco del Pacifico could attract the interest of foreign banks.

Lebanese protests will tighten the economic trap

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Financial Support ◽  
Currency Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Class ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Current Account Deficits

Significance Lebanon’s debt is reaching unsustainable levels, meaning politicians can no longer delay addressing longstanding structural fiscal and current account deficits. However, public rejection of the political class is mounting. Impacts The return of Gulf tourists to Lebanon could hurt alternative destinations such as Jordan. Gulf donors’ efforts to condition financial support on disengagement from Iran will fail, but could limit disbursement. If Lebanon suffers a debt and currency crisis, this could spread to other emerging markets. Raising a planned 2-billion-dollar bond will be extremely challenging.

Balkan emigration will go on without better governance

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Health Systems ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Medical Staff ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
The Past ◽  
Balkan Countries ◽  
Economic Considerations ◽  
Current Account Balances

Significance The protests highlight the deep dissatisfaction that has led hundreds of thousands to leave Serbia and other Western Balkan countries over the past decade. Motives driving emigration have changed to include marked discontent with governance along with economic considerations; the consequent depletion of the well-educated and more progressive part of the citizenry has economic and political significance. Impacts The cash flow from diaspora remittances will continue to support South-Eastern Europe's budgets and current account balances. The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to reduce remittances severely in 2020. High emigration among medical staff is hitting health systems badly.

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