Ecuador migrant crisis to compound Moreno’s problems

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Spending ◽  
Easy Access ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Transit Route

Significance Ecuador is an attractive destination for Venezuelans, offering easy access to US dollars. It is also a transit route for migrants travelling to Peru and Chile. The migrant surge adds to President Lenin Moreno's challenges, as he tries to reduce public spending, stimulate the economy and tackle a security crisis on the Colombian border. Impacts Migration will be a key topic in next year’s local elections with right-wing candidates likely to benefit. Migration may tighten the Venezuelan government’s grip on power, removing likely dissenters and boosting remittances. Tensions between Colombia, Ecuador and Peru may increase as each country attempts to limit migrant numbers.

Oreskovic government in Croatia may prove short-lived

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Instability ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Economic Restructuring ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
The Government ◽  
Social Conservatism

Significance After protracted negotiations, Croatia, at last, has a government, comprising the conservative Patriotic Coalition -- the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), plus a few small parties -- and the centre-right Bridge ('Most') of Independent Lists. The government is unusual because it is led by a non-partisan figure, Tihomir Oreskovic, a businessman who grew up in Canada and has only a shaky grasp of the Croatian language. In a best-case scenario, the government could deliver important and necessary reforms. Impacts Efforts to cut public spending will reduce the risk of a damaging financing crisis. A programme of economic restructuring will boost Croatia's long-term growth prospects. The election of two right-wing parties will consolidate the drift towards social conservatism. Tensions in the coalition will perpetuate political instability and could precipitate new elections.

Earthquake may add to fiscal woes in Ecuador

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
State Funding ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
External Financing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Downward Pressure ◽  
Spending Cuts

Significance Thousands protested in early April against government plans to increase tax, the latest sign of rising tensions following the collapse of oil prices, the widening of the budget deficit and cuts in public spending. The move to austerity, which began in early 2015, has improved public finances. However, spending cuts have created problems for sectors reliant on state funding and efforts to raise taxes to balance the books have been opposed. Impacts Austerity will drain aggregate demand and place downward pressure on growth. Right-wing opposition will use the fallout from the oil price collapse to make the case for a smaller state and less regulated economy. Tax increases will be unpopular with voters, but may help to secure external financing.

Local election wins raise Hungarian opposition hopes

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Domestic Capital ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Municipal Election

Subject Local and municipal election results. Significance The largely united opposition made a major breakthrough in local elections on October 13, taking Budapest and other cities and towns and eroding Prime Minister Viktor Orban's Fidesz party’s predominant position since 2006. A sex scandal plus changes within the opposition have apparently lost Fidesz the middle class, further emphasising the already stark divide between cities and the countryside. Impacts Orban’s weaker position will dent the confidence of the global right-wing populist movement, of which he is a figurehead. Domestic capital associated with the Orban government is at risk as investors price in a potential loss of government support. The decline in political stability may at least momentarily moderate investor confidence in Hungary.

New year brings fresh challenges for Ecuador’s Moreno

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Natural Support ◽  
International Investors ◽  
The Right

Subject Moreno's challenges. Significance President Lenin Moreno begins 2019 with a new vice-president -- his third so far -- and a deeply divided party. Worsening relations between himself and his predecessor are polarising his natural support base. While he has managed to consolidate his position by forming alliances with the right, he remains in a vulnerable position, and will face major political challenges over the coming year. Impacts Moreno’s continued drift to the right will please international investors and help his government attract foreign direct investment. Moreno’s line on Venezuela signals alignment with regional right-wing governments and a further break with Correa’s foreign policy. Political tensions will build as the local elections approach -- isolated episodes of violence will almost certainly occur.

New Uruguay government's COVID-19 boost will not last

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Spending ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
Investment Grade ◽  
The Impact

Significance The contraction preceded the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak. The large inherited fiscal deficit and rising debt-to-GDP ratio are forcing the new government to take unpopular measures to strengthen public accounts. However, its apparent success in combating the pandemic has given it strong approval ratings that will help facilitate reforms. Impacts Reform plans will seek to maintain Uruguay’s investment grade rating. Rising poverty and unemployment may compromise efforts to cut public spending. Splits in the governing coalition may appear ahead of September's local elections.

Portugal is no longer immune from the far right

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Minority Groups ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
The North ◽  
Core Identity ◽  
Popular Party

Significance Andre Ventura, leader of the far-right Chega (Enough) party, finished third in Portugal’s presidential election in January with 12% of the vote. Most polls now suggest that it is the third most popular party in Portugal. Chega’s core identity centres around its anti-establishment views, as well as hostility towards minority groups, in particular the Roma community. Impacts Local elections in October will be a stronger barometer of Chega’s appeal in Portugal than the presidential election. If Chega continues to expand its support, Portugal’s other right-wing parties could adopt some of its views and rhetoric. Chega founder Ventura’s association with Benfica football club could damage his appeal in the north, where arch-rival Porto dominates. Like other far-right parties, Chega could transition from advocating neoliberalism to more popular economic positions over time.

Norway local polls suggest future government change

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Leadership Role ◽  
The Political ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
City Governments ◽  
Green Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Right ◽  
Government Change ◽  
First Time

Subject The political outlook following local elections in Norway. Significance September 14 local elections offered voters their first opportunity to pass judgement on the right-wing Conservative-Progress Party (FrP) government. The verdict was critical, with all government and pro-government parties losing ground compared with the last local elections in 2011, and the opposition gaining. In the most significant blow, the Conservatives lost control of Norway's largest cities. The populist, anti-immigration FrP seems to have suffered especially from joining the national government for the first time. Impacts The main opposition Labour Party is set to secure a leadership role in Norway's largest cities. The rising Green party is positioned to play kingmaker in several city governments. The government's response to the oil price drop and slowing economy will be key to its ability to recover from its setback.

Ecuador prison system poses challenges for Moreno

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Relative Stability ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Prison System ◽  
Security Policies ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Latin American Countries

Subject Ecuador's crumbling prison system. Significance Ecuador experiences lower levels of crime than many Latin American countries but insecurity is mounting. A wave of protests that swept the country in October was accompanied by widespread looting and vandalism, indicating the difficulties facing President Lenin Moreno in maintaining order after a decade of relative stability under his predecessor, Rafael Correa. Prison conditions have deteriorated and violence is increasing. The capacity of the government to strengthen the prison system and curb criminality is hindered by its lack of legitimacy and its efforts to cut public spending. Impacts Mounting crime and violence will favour right-wing politicians and parties who promise hard-line security policies. Correa will seize on rising disorder to discredit Moreno, pointing to the relative stability achieved during his presidency. Weak economic conditions and escalating drug trafficking will continue to fuel crime, placing pressure on the prison system.

Economic policy will be unpredictable after Turks vote

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
New Wave ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Interest ◽  
External Demand ◽  
The Government

Significance The TCMB has responded quickly to a new wave of lira volatility ahead of local elections, forcing banks to borrow at the overnight rate of 25.5% instead of the 24.0% policy rate. Such decisiveness defies President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s antipathy to high interest rates and is particularly welcome as the government tries to bolster support by reviving economic activity through accelerated public spending and ad hoc interventions. Impacts A lira collapse would trigger renewed crisis and may be avoided, but nominal depreciation is likely and lira volatility almost certain. Inflation may decline, but only to 12-15% from September onwards. Low investor and consumer confidence, weak external demand and high interest rates, debt and unemployment may keep recovery to 0-2% growth. Economic discontent will persist into 2020, inducing Erdogan to continue clamping down despite the tradition for post-election conciliation.

COVID concerns will consume Macron's domestic agenda

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Current Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Eu

Significance It was expected that the reshuffle would reflect a policy pivot towards social and environmental priorities in the wake of COVID-19 and as a response to the outcome of local elections this year. Instead, personnel change was very modest and underpinned Macron’s focus on managing the current crisis and consolidating right-wing support ahead of the April 2022 presidential election. Impacts Polls suggest the far-right National Rally is failing to take advantage of the COVID-19 crisis. Recent surges in COVID-19 cases suggest France’s economic recovery will be slower than expected. Rising COVID-19 cases across Europe will increase pressure on the EU to acclerate the rollout of its recovery fund.

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