US foreign policy faces growing domestic pressures

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Recent Letter ◽  
Internal Policy ◽  
Supreme Leader ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Defence Expenditure

Subject US national security policy and personnel. Significance On September 11, President Donald Trump instructed his national security team to prepare for a second in-person summit with North Korea’s supreme leader Kim Jong-un, likely inspired by Kim’s recent letter requesting this. Trump’s directive appeared to have blindsided Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who has been managing denuclearisation talks with Pyongyang since the first Kim-Trump summit in June, and disregarded the view of almost all of his new national security team (its second iteration since his inauguration) that Pyongyang has no real intention of denuclearising soon. Impacts If Democrats make gains in November, they are likely to seek to curtail defence expenditure, including current projects. As elections near, Trump's decision-making may place more store in his political instincts than US intelligence agencies’ estimates. The new security team is unlikely to bring greater amity to US-China ties, partly given internal policy disagreements.

Trump's US foreign policy narrative turns to 2020

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
National Security ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Religious Freedom ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Political Capital ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Policy Objective ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Difficult Time

Significance The news comes at a difficult time for President Donald Trump: he needs foreign policy wins to contribute to his chances of re-election in November 2020, and he has invested political capital in improving ties with North Korea. Moreover, foreign policy related controversies have seen Trump put under formal impeachment investigation. Impacts Trump will likely take a less hawkish tone towards Iran and North Korea with the departure of John Bolton as national security adviser. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s foreign policy influence will grow, provided he maintains the president’s favour. The administration will renew its push to emphasise religious freedom as a foreign policy objective. If the impeachment investigations turn up damaging evidence, Trump will have to divert more time to fighting allegations.

US foreign policy will go right after Tillerson

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Deputy Director ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Secretary Of State ◽  
Midterm Elections

Significance President Donald Trump said he dismissed Tillerson as he wants his cabinet to be more in line with his thinking; Trump and Tillerson had clashed over policies and priorities. CIA Director Mike Pompeo will be nominated to succeed Tillerson. The nominee to replace Pompeo at the CIA will be current CIA Deputy Director Gina Haspel. Impacts A better-coordinated foreign policy team could help Trump prepare for his new push on North Korea-US ties. Pompeo may find as secretary of state that he disagrees more openly with Trump; the CIA director is not public-facing. Conceivably, the 2018 midterm elections could further delay Trump nominees, but secretaries could work in an acting capacity.

Biden will wield expert US foreign policy team

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
African American ◽  
National Security ◽  
Minority Rights ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Security Threats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Career ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us

Significance If confirmed by the Senate, Austin will be the first African-American in that post. His selection is strongly supported by minority rights groups, partly because his military career immunises him from any claims of tokenism. This comes as Biden is announcing his wider national security team. Impacts It will be far easier to confirm Biden nominees if the Democrats hold the Senate. Biden’s attention will be arrested by COVID-19 and the US economy. Biden will increase the focus on non-traditional security threats including climate change and disease.

Biden’s US foreign policy agenda is emerging

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Economic Reform ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Policy Agenda ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
China Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Spending

Significance Biden and Republican President Donald Trump, seeking re-election, are already sparring over US-China policy; this and other differences over foreign policy will mark the candidates’ campaigning. Impacts Biden would reduce US tariffs on China, favouring more targeted tariffs, but still push for Chinese economic reform. He would increase US attention to the Asia-Pacific, and work with China on North Korean denuclearisation. The next president will likely have to trim US defence spending and commitments overseas. Biden will refer to the Obama administration’s record as evidence of his fitness to govern.

Impeachment leaves untimely leadership vacuum in Seoul

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
Lame Duck ◽  
Support Rate

Significance Park is already a lame duck with barely a year left to serve and her public support rate is just 5%. Her authority is irretrievably lost, but she refuses to resign. The uncertainty and ferment that have paralysed government in Seoul for weeks will therefore continue for several months. Impacts In a first-past-the-post system, deep divisions may prevent the opposition from capturing the presidency, despite its ostensible advantage. The consensus behind the West's hard line on Pyongyang could collapse if South Korea's next president favours outreach, as looks likely. Economic problems will gradually worsen in the absence of strong leadership capable of tackling tough issues. Paralysis in Seoul will prevent effective responses to changes to US foreign policy when Donald Trump takes office as president.

Germany will gradually build up its defences

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Industry ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
Overseas Operations ◽  
Peacekeeping Missions ◽  
Defence Expenditure

Significance Traditionally, Germany has been cautious about defence spending and build-up. However, the defence ministry now wants to reorganise the Bundeswehr (armed forces) so that it contributes not only to overseas operations as is currently the case but also to national security. Impacts If defence expenditure reaches Merkel’s goal of 1.5% of GDP by 2021, this would allow spending of approximately 49 billion euros. Germany is likely to purchase more from its domestic defence industry as it increases spending. Overseas peacekeeping missions, especially in Iraq, Afghanistan and Mali, are likely to be expanded.

Iran-US nuclear deal revival efforts will face hurdles

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Medical Supplies ◽  
President Elect ◽  
National Security Adviser

Significance US President-elect Joe Biden supports the agreement, from which his predecessor Donald Trump withdrew, and has named as his national security adviser Jake Sullivan, who under former President Barack Obama began the secret outreach that fostered the JCPOA. Impacts Biden will immediately lower the temperature by facilitating trade in medical supplies to fight COVID-19. An end to the ‘Muslim ban’ will likely mean Iranian citizens can again travel to the United States, pandemic permitting. Iran may halt or slow steps that violate JCPOA limits, such as the installation of advanced centrifuges.

Trump values reshape US foreign human rights agenda

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Future Thinking ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Wide Range

Significance The report is intended to guide future thinking on human rights in US foreign policy and to emphasise a global battle for values versus China and Russia. It also has a clear electoral aspect, as the selected rights will appeal to religious conservatives and strict constructionists in the legal sector, two groups that President Donald Trump will rely on as he seeks re-election this November. Impacts A Democratic president would discard the Commission on Unalienable Rights and the report. A Democratic president would focus on a wide range of ‘new’ human rights areas. The report will curtail Trump's scope to downplay rights disputes with Russia and China.

Ukraine will seek a louder voice in adverse conditions

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Green Light ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Phone Call ◽  
International Affairs ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Adverse Conditions ◽  
Pipeline Project ◽  
Nord Stream

Significance Just as Zelensky's July 2019 phone call with then President Donald Trump was fading from memory, Biden's green light for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project, in a deal with Germany, has undermined Ukraine's confidence in both countries. Kyiv is now seeking to make its own voice heard and assert its rights as a significant player rather than a pawn in international affairs. Impacts Kyiv will present the Biden summit as an achievement, whatever the outcome, although this is unlikely to affect Zelensky's ratings. The opposition will place the blame for Nord Stream 2 squarely on the Zelensky administration. Biden's decisions on Afghanistan will increase Ukrainian worries about US foreign policy commitments.

Prospects for US foreign policy to end-2017

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
International Institutions ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Positions ◽  
Foreign Governments

Subject Prospects for US foreign policy to end-2017. Significance During his first months in office, President Donald Trump has generated significant uncertainty about US alliance commitments, participation within international institutions and foreign governments’ standing in Washington. However, many of his subordinates at the cabinet and sub-cabinet level have attempted to normalise the Trump administration’s foreign policy positions to assuage allies’ nervousness, but have proved subject to presidential contradiction on multiple occasions.

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