Colombia court ruling will help extractives sector

Subject Mining referenda. Significance The Constitutional Court on October 11 ruled that popular consultations held by local municipalities or regions do not have veto power. This ruling is important as a series of popular consultations since 2016 have voted to suspend or cancel extractives projects, concerning both current and potential investors. The new ruling should provide greater stability for such projects but is likely to spark renewed frustration in the most affected regions. Impacts The ruling may encourage more companies to invest in the extractives sector, with positive implications for economic activity. Social unrest around extractives projects may increase with the removal of an electoral outlet for popular opposition. Environmental activism may increase with mining opponents using environmental concerns as an alternative means of halting projects. Non-state armed groups will present a continuing threat of violence and extortion for mining firms, particularly those with gold mines.

Significance Iohannis had resisted Justice Minister Toader Tudorel’s request to remove Kovesi, the head of the National Anti-Corruption Directorate (DNA), but was undercut by a Constitutional Court ruling that he could only refuse on procedural grounds. A 15-year effort to remove the justice system from political interference is drawing to a close, making it far harder to subject the political elite to the rule of law. Impacts Romania may find it hard to avoid economic damage from the assault on the rule of law. The steep reverse in Europeanising this post-communist country will not easily be undone. Romania’s slide into being an illiberal and kleptocratic EU member will increase doubts about admitting similar applicant states.


Significance However, the Constitutional Court must still approve the contested electoral register and rule on the eligibility of candidates, including former President Francois Bozize. Impacts Bozize's exclusion may prompt the main opposition platform, the Coalition for Democratic Opposition (COD-2020), to boycott the polls. Instability may compromise the deployment of international, independent experts to observe or provide technical support to elections. Dissatisfaction among the political opposition, armed groups and regional leaders over the lack of dialogue may grow after the elections.


Subject Outlook for municipal elections in South Africa. Significance Municipal elections are due between May 18 and August 16. Last November, a Constitutional Court ruling stated that voters' postal addresses must accompany entries on the electoral roll in order to prevent irregularities. It has already forced several by-elections to be annulled and will likely cause difficulties for the upcoming polls. Impacts Policies pursued by municipalities will prove nationally significant -- since the eight largest account for 59% of total economic activity. If it experiences major losses in cities, the ANC may shore up its base by prioritising social spending in rural areas. Urban voters are more likely than rural ones to be aggrieved by fiscal leakage because they make a larger contribution to the tax base.


Significance The move follows emergency negotiations in the aftermath of the public’s shock rejection of the original deal on October 2. While both the Senate and the House of Representatives voted unanimously in favour of the agreement, they did so without the participation of the right-wing Democratic Centre (CD) party, which walked out of both votes in protest. Impacts A court ruling that another plebiscite is needed to fast-track implementation laws may yet endanger the deal. The presence of non-state armed groups other than the FARC will ensure continued violence regardless of the deal. The bad press that followed the plebiscite will dampen investor interest, limiting any peace dividend.


Subject Malawi election controversies. Significance The Supreme Court is currently hearing a legal challenge to February’s Constitutional Court ruling nullifying last year’s election of President Peter Mutharika. While fresh presidential elections are now set to take place on July 2, Mutharika continues to dispute the nullification of last year’s result and has refused to give his assent to recent electoral reforms. Now there are concerns over whether a credible new poll can be held amid a State of Disaster and a proposed nationwide lockdown to combat COVID-19. Impacts Recent attempts by the government to tackle longstanding grievances among the army are likely an attempt by Mutharika to keep it on side. International actors are unlikely to condemn any fresh polls strongly, even if there are concerns over their credibility. Public protests could be reignited if Mutharika reappoints the MEC’s tainted leadership or elections are delayed.


Subject Outlook for South Africa's anti-graft agencies. Significance The decision of the national director of public prosecutions (NDPP), Shaun Abrahams, to appeal to the Constitutional Court against a High Court ruling reinstating corruption charges against the president is merely the latest instance of the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) seeking to protect Jacob Zuma. The move is symptomatic of the politicisation of state investigative agencies in recent years. Impacts Factionalism within the intelligence and prosecution agencies will intensify ahead of the ANC leadership contest in 2017. Political parties will likely turn to the courts to resolve electoral disputes following the municipal polls next month. Within the ANC, the appetite for protecting Zuma may wane if the party loses significant support in the election.


Significance A Constitutional Court ruling outlawing the 2012 pension reform highlighted the risks of significant deviations from austerity policies. However, even with a budget deficit of 3% of GDP, Italy can avoid returning to the EU's excessive deficit procedure. Impacts The Constitutional Court's ruling shows how difficult it might be for Italy to meet the European Commission's debt and deficit goals. The government could use the 'safeguard clauses' in its public finance plans to raise extra taxes. If the national statistics agency ISTAT had not changed its GDP methodology, public debt would stand above 135% of GDP.


Subject Barred presidential candidates. Significance Two separate constitutional court rulings in May have barred two of Guatemala’s leading presidential candidates from standing in the June 15 elections. This leaves former First Lady Sandra Torres with a clear lead in the polls. The controversial nature of the judicial rulings will cast doubt over the legitimacy of the electoral process, as well as raising concerns about the future government’s commitment to maintaining much-needed anti-corruption investigations. Impacts The CICIG is now almost certain to leave Guatemala in October as Aldana was the only candidate in favour of restoring its mandate. Social unrest is becoming increasingly likely around the elections as voters protest the barring of their preferred candidates. The international response has been muted so far; countries may wait until after the elections to comment.


Significance Far from being nonplussed by Germany’s Constitutional Court ruling of May 5 that the ECB’s Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) may be illegal, it doubled the programme on June 4. Impacts The ECB may have to justify its policies based on ill-defined and varying economic and fiscal goals that may diverge across member states. The European recovery plan agreed on July 21 will ease pressure on the ECB to intervene to avoid sovereign debt market disruptions. Delayed due to COVID-19, the ECB policy strategy review may end in mid-2021; the price target may be reworded to allow more flexibility.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rehema Namono ◽  
Ambrose Kemboi ◽  
Joel Chepkwony

PurposeDespite the current dynamism in the education sector that was manifested in new approaches to work that require innovative workforce, little empirical studies have been conducted on how to influence innovativeness in higher education institutions. Moreover, though studies have established a link between hope and innovative work behaviour, no study has established how hope and its two components of agency and pathways influence innovative work behaviour. The purpose of this study is to establish the influence of hope and its two components of agency and pathways on innovative work behaviour.Design/methodology/approachA quantitative cross-sectional research design was adopted in this study. The study employed hierarchical regression to test the hypothesised relationship between hope and its components of agency and pathways on innovative work behaviour using a sample drawn from public universities in Uganda in the two categories of academic and administrative staff.FindingsThe findings reveal that pathways and agency influence innovative work behaviour. The Findings also revealed that hope significantly influences innovative work behaviour over and above its individual components of agency and pathways.Research limitations/implicationsThe study was cross-sectional in nature and the findings may not portray a true picture of the relationship between the study variables over time as behaviour is ever changing. Further studies could carry out a longitudinal study to establish the effect established in this study at different time intervals. The results provide a more complex understanding of how hope and its two components of agency and pathways enhance innovative work behaviour.Practical implicationsThe findings of the study provide insightful direction to managers in public universities in Uganda to consider different avenues of increasing employee hope so as to enhance innovative work behaviour. This can be done through targeted interventions like involving employees in goal setting and setting alternative means to achieve goals.Originality/valueThe value of this study is both empirical and theoretical. Empirically, this study is the first to establish the influence of hope and its two components of agency and pathways on innovative work behaviour in Uganda’s university setting. Theoretically, the study extends veracity of the conservation of resources theory (COR) by clarifying those employees who possess the psychological characteristics of hope exhibit innovative work behaviour. The study also extends on the theory of hope by revealing that agency and pathways influence innovative work behaviour.


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